Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
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- Isgrimnur
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Perhaps they should rename themselves IBS.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
They sold their chip business for $1.4B. When I say that, I mean they paid Globalfoundries $1.4B to take it off their hands.
In personal news, DIS was an easy no-brainer last week at $82. But I shouldn't have shorted silver.
In personal news, DIS was an easy no-brainer last week at $82. But I shouldn't have shorted silver.
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- LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
That was where I was headed. We pay them a fairly substantial amount of SaaS blood money (where they don't seem to actually provide any service) for all of the companies they've bought (and bailed on their VAN service when they bought Sterling Commerce)Isgrimnur wrote:Perhaps they should rename themselves IBS.
SaaS in my experience is pretty much puppies.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Never mind.LawBeefaroni wrote: But I shouldn't have shorted silver.
Closed out my Jan $17 SLV puts today. I see silver going down another buck or so maybe by then but happy to take my money.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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- Isgrimnur
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
I went looking at silver news and stumbled across this in the Google Finance sidebar news links for the iShares Silver Trust, and felt like I'd stumbled in to an R&P rabbit hole.
In other words, psychological manipulation is the main menu of options for the elites to keep the masses “informed,” while still very much uninformed.
...
Ever since elite-puppet FDR issued his Executive Order that all “persons” turn in their gold [the “news” portion], gold was replaced by the foreign- owned Federal Reserve central bank paper issue [the fiat portion], and demand was made to disappear from the minds of the [dis]informed public and world.
...
Once the privately owned Federal Reserve central banking system was “installed” by corrupt means in 1913, in just 30 years it had successfully withdrawn the use of gold as a means of measured wealth and replaced it with the Rothschild House of Paper. America has never been the same, since.
...
About one year after the Rothschild Federal Reserve banking system took over in 1913...
The Rothschild central banking system, with the US Fed being the most powerful, is the cuckoo bird of the financial world.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
It's been families for a long time.
Today I will gladly share my experience and advice, for there are no sweeter words than "I told you so."
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
I have no idea how to interpret that sentence.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Yeah, precious metals guys are nuts. Go to Youtube and search silver. It's crazy.Isgrimnur wrote:I went looking at silver news and stumbled across this in the Google Finance sidebar news links for the iShares Silver Trust, and felt like I'd stumbled in to an R&P rabbit hole.
And I'm someone who has no problem buying some silver eagles every once in a while.
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- stessier
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
As others have mentioned, what the heck are you invested in?? My 401k is -2.02% for October, -0.26% for 3rd Quarter, but +7.81% for the year (+20.62 for the last 3 years). I'm pretty much just in index funds, though.LordMortis wrote:Any how. Kinda something not sure what how gas retail prices get slashed by 25% in less than a month and my portfolio takes a 12% hit when it was already slowly bleeding in that same time.
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- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
S down 20% or so on earnings. -$0.19 vs. -$0.06 consensus.
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- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Jeebus. Glad I got out of that a couple years ago. Short term blip or long term future doom?LawBeefaroni wrote:S down 20% or so on earnings. -$0.19 vs. -$0.06 consensus.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Not sure, haven't been following S to closely. But no doubt their guidance was down along with their terrible earnings.Carpet_pissr wrote:Jeebus. Glad I got out of that a couple years ago. Short term blip or long term future doom?LawBeefaroni wrote:S down 20% or so on earnings. -$0.19 vs. -$0.06 consensus.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
I need to learn to take stuff I've recently unloaded off my watch list. SLV is down another $0.62 today, all ITM for the $17 puts. Ah well.
In other news, there are some crazy yields on oil related stocks that have been hammered by oil prices. RIG, SDRL, etc. If oil prices stay low, I'd guess that they're going to slash their dividends but it bears watching. I think RIG reports first, I'm going to follow that conference call carefully.
In other news, there are some crazy yields on oil related stocks that have been hammered by oil prices. RIG, SDRL, etc. If oil prices stay low, I'd guess that they're going to slash their dividends but it bears watching. I think RIG reports first, I'm going to follow that conference call carefully.
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- GreenGoo
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
This is like shopping for cars, or computer parts. I am immersed in new component information and pricing up until I finally pull hte trigger, then I immediately stop reading anything sale related until the next time I need to put together a parts list.LawBeefaroni wrote:I need to learn to take stuff I've recently unloaded off my watch list. SLV is down another $0.62 today, all ITM for the $17 puts. Ah well.
Nothing like deciding on the extra 50 bucks worth of video card only to find out it's on sale for 100 bucks off two weeks later.
I despise not hitting the exact peak or valley, which is of course impossible unless you're from the future. Hopefully I'll be from the future soon.
- LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
So, I was at my parents this weekend and finally got my Scottrade referral from my father while we were speaking in persona and he could sit in front of his own account so we could get it done I and opened my first personally managed retirement account.
I am totally overwhelmed.
I am totally ascared. I thought I had a good idea of where I wanted to start. I was just going to dump my whole contribution into index funds and forget about it but when I took a peek my intuition tells me all of the index funds I looked at are way overpriced. They've all been on this three month meteoric rise that looks to good to continue without some major sort of correction that will take a long time to bounce back from.
And so I'm looking at some lower yield dividend stocks like Ford that seem stable and not overpriced to park my money while waiting for the storm to brew and then pass. Is that a stupid idea?
Everything I read suggests prudence is start by protecting yourself longterm with broad mutual funds but what see is a market of mutual funds with people throwing money at it with no regard for the actual value (of earnings and assets) of the businesses inside, like apple and Microsoft and Google and IBM are all poised to huge growth explosions.
I went to go look at a company I really like, Samsung. They make a quality product on the cheap and they seem to also be making a bigger and bigger splash in the mobile world. Then I saw how much a single stock costs and I got scared, like my blood just isn't rich enough to buy even one share. Though I'm still tempted. Just one.
I have no idea what I'm doing and $5500 is way too much money for me to just play with to figure things out. Now that I have my first decisions to make, I totally have a paralysis going on. Like I picked a picked a perfectly bad time to poke my head in.
I don't know how y'all actively manage stuff. It would raise my blood pressure. Though with any luck, one day I'll be well enough off to have money to actively manage.
I am totally overwhelmed.
I am totally ascared. I thought I had a good idea of where I wanted to start. I was just going to dump my whole contribution into index funds and forget about it but when I took a peek my intuition tells me all of the index funds I looked at are way overpriced. They've all been on this three month meteoric rise that looks to good to continue without some major sort of correction that will take a long time to bounce back from.
And so I'm looking at some lower yield dividend stocks like Ford that seem stable and not overpriced to park my money while waiting for the storm to brew and then pass. Is that a stupid idea?
Everything I read suggests prudence is start by protecting yourself longterm with broad mutual funds but what see is a market of mutual funds with people throwing money at it with no regard for the actual value (of earnings and assets) of the businesses inside, like apple and Microsoft and Google and IBM are all poised to huge growth explosions.
I went to go look at a company I really like, Samsung. They make a quality product on the cheap and they seem to also be making a bigger and bigger splash in the mobile world. Then I saw how much a single stock costs and I got scared, like my blood just isn't rich enough to buy even one share. Though I'm still tempted. Just one.
I have no idea what I'm doing and $5500 is way too much money for me to just play with to figure things out. Now that I have my first decisions to make, I totally have a paralysis going on. Like I picked a picked a perfectly bad time to poke my head in.
I don't know how y'all actively manage stuff. It would raise my blood pressure. Though with any luck, one day I'll be well enough off to have money to actively manage.
- Zaxxon
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Be careful, dude. Your post could be inserted into a textbook on psychology interfering with good investment decisions.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Generally you want a bit of long term, professionally managed funds. The idea being that you don't miss out on the long term market gains. And also that anyone giving you that advice can wash their hands of any blame should it blow up; I mean if the pros fail what hope would you have had anyway? Personally, around half my retirement is in funds.LordMortis wrote: Everything I read suggests prudence is start by protecting yourself longterm with broad mutual funds but what see is a market of mutual funds with people throwing money at it with no regard for the actual value (of earnings and assets) of the businesses inside, like apple and Microsoft and Google and IBM are all poised to huge growth explosions.
The price of individual shares is really an arbitrary combination of the number of shares issued and the company's market cap. As some companies get bigger, they split shares or issue more. Others don't or do it at different rates. Judging just based on share price is like saying that 8 ounces of x at $800 is more expensive than a pound of y at $60. Without knowing what each one is there no way to determine fair price.LM wrote:
I went to go look at a company I really like, Samsung. They make a quality product on the cheap and they seem to also be making a bigger and bigger splash in the mobile world. Then I saw how much a single stock costs and I got scared, like my blood just isn't rich enough to buy even one share. Though I'm still tempted. Just one.
No rush. You're not in just yet, you just gained the ability to get in. Fwiw, I bought some Ford a few weeks ago. Hoped to accumulate a but to sell covered calls but it went from 13.80s to 15s and I stopped buying. Bad psychology.LM wrote: I have no idea what I'm doing and $5500 is way too much money for me to just play with to figure things out. Now that I have my first decisions to make, I totally have a paralysis going on. Like I picked a picked a perfectly bad time to poke my head in.
I'm on a phone so I'm out of patience with swype but more later.
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- LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
17 years of a hefty contribution to 401k and work funded distributions are in funds through work (and one very small personal managed fund through my CU which I'm none too happy with. If I were happy with them then I'd keep throwing money at them) and I figure this retirement plan sits at about 25% of what I need to retire with at the current market level, which means I'm at less than 25%.LawBeefaroni wrote: Generally you want a bit of long term, professionally managed funds. The idea being that you don't miss out on the long term market gains. And also that anyone giving you that advice can wash their hands of any blame should it blow up; I mean if the pros fail what hope would you have had anyway? Personally, around half my retirement is in funds.
That's the scary part. I'm not in just yet. The price for Ford seems fairly stable to me. I feel more comfortable not worrying about their highs and lows and just being happy to take their modest dividends.No rush. You're not in just yet, you just gained the ability to get in. Fwiw, I bought some Ford a few weeks ago. Hoped to accumulate a but to sell covered calls but it went from 13.80s to 15s and I stopped buying. Bad psychology.
I'm on a phone so I'm out of patience with swype but more later.
I don't even remotely understand but covering calls yet. I'll save learning about options for a later date. It sounds much more like gambling and not something I am prepared to do.
I'm finally in a position to really begin learning about this stuff and my eyes get too tired too quickly. I've got a number of old "learn about investment books" (bought about 12 years ago, when I mistakenly first thought I was going to be able to start investing outside of my 401k) that I can only take reading 20 pages a time before my eyes give out. Even if their foresight may not have been clear, learning fundamentals seems to still be the same.
I can be happy that the money sitting in idle scottrade is only costing me .09% taxable interest.
- pr0ner
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Why isn't your idle money sitting in a tax exempt fund??
Hodor.
- GreenGoo
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Because I'm a moron, der.pr0ner wrote:Why isn't your idle money sitting in a tax exempt fund??
Oh wait, you weren't talking to me.
Also...because I'm lazy.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Idle money? What's that?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
In LM's case, if it's sitting in a taxable account, he runs the risk of it not being put back in an IRA within the time limit. He should have done a direct transfer to a roll-over.GreenGoo wrote:Because I'm a moron, der.pr0ner wrote:Why isn't your idle money sitting in a tax exempt fund??
Oh wait, you weren't talking to me.
Also...because I'm lazy.
In your case, I have no idea about Canada's rules.
LM, I agree that the market is somewhat overvalued. I would NOT if I were you start picking individual stocks. Unless you can do a 10 year cash flow analysis of a company, you aren't qualified to pick stocks. Can you read financial documents? Can you read through an entire 10-K including footnotes? Knowing your risk tolerance, stay AWAY from picking individual stocks.
A good way to do it is first move it into your rollover IRA (I assume that's what you're planning). Then divide it into pieces of 10k or so. Invest those over the course of a year. If it's less than 10K, just put it into the index and be done with it.
I think professionally managed funds are good if you want exposure only to certain sectors. I don't find that generically labeled "growth" or "small cap" or those are worth paying the higher management fees. Numerous studies find 70% of managed funds cannot beat index funds after fees.
Black Lives Matter
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"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
At this point that (and much of this thread) is above my head. I've never been in a position to worry about managing any portion of my money by myself until the last few months. Until then all of the money I directly controlled was pooled in to operating expenses/petty cash. My only asset to manage would have been my house.noxiousdog wrote:In LM's case, if it's sitting in a taxable account, he runs the risk of it not being put back in an IRA within the time limit. He should have done a direct transfer to a roll-over.
I'll take that under advisement as I try to learn about how to read financial documents.LM, I agree that the market is somewhat overvalued. I would NOT if I were you start picking individual stocks. Unless you can do a 10 year cash flow analysis of a company, you aren't qualified to pick stocks. Can you read financial documents? Can you read through an entire 10-K including footnotes? Knowing your risk tolerance, stay AWAY from picking individual stocks.
A good way to do it is first move it in ... e with it.
It's under 10k, as in my maximum contribution of $5500 for the year, and I still mostly put it in SPY as I winced, where it will sit. Barring tragedy or unemployment, I should be able to hit the $5500 a year mark every year from here to retirement. With any luck, over the next few years, I'll be able to go beyond that, learn a lot more, and open a regular brokerage account as well which I will won't just put money into and be done with it. I'll try to actively manage that portion, and essentially learn the stock gambler's lifestyle. But that's a long way off, yet. I'm still rebuilding my savings from having paid off my house this year and I likely by the time I am comfortable with that, I'll need to buy another car.
In the meantime I'm reading as much my eye strain and pea brain can take.
Lord knows my work managed funds and my (traditional IRA) CU managed funds don't. Both continue to see about half of what SPY does. When my work financial manager comes around, I think I'm going to have words with him about getting out of all their "lifestyle" funds if I can. The self management website only gives me a very limited way to rebalance my portfolio. And quite frankly having watched all of their choices for 17 years, I remain completely unimpressed not just with my manager but the entire company. When I feel comfortable with managing things on my one, I'll figure out how to pull my original IRA out of my CU and into Scottrade.I think professionally managed funds are good if you want exposure only to certain sectors. I don't find that generically labeled "growth" or "small cap" or those are worth paying the higher management fees. Numerous studies find 70% of managed funds cannot beat index funds after fees.
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
LM:
A great way to learn and play at the same time, is to sign up for a free CAPS account at The Motley Fool. You can "pick" stocks, funds or pretty much anything, and track your progress against the S&P and other players.
If you think "I'd love to buy some Samsung", you can in a way, via CAPS, and track its progress.
One thing I like about it is that it also has many fund managers' picks listed as a player (for instance, "trackBillNygren" or "trackJPMorgan") so you can see over time if which houses are full of shit, and which are likely to point you in the right direction.
http://caps.fool.com/
Not sure if anyone else here "plays", but I know that Lawbeef did several years ago.
A great way to learn and play at the same time, is to sign up for a free CAPS account at The Motley Fool. You can "pick" stocks, funds or pretty much anything, and track your progress against the S&P and other players.
If you think "I'd love to buy some Samsung", you can in a way, via CAPS, and track its progress.
One thing I like about it is that it also has many fund managers' picks listed as a player (for instance, "trackBillNygren" or "trackJPMorgan") so you can see over time if which houses are full of shit, and which are likely to point you in the right direction.
http://caps.fool.com/
Not sure if anyone else here "plays", but I know that Lawbeef did several years ago.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
I haven't been active since around 2011 but I think my account is still there. I was in the 85-90% range while I was active but I doubt I'm anywhere near that with it just sitting there. Lots of short-term positions there.Carpet_pissr wrote:LM:
A great way to learn and play at the same time, is to sign up for a free CAPS account at The Motley Fool. You can "pick" stocks, funds or pretty much anything, and track your progress against the S&P and other players.
If you think "I'd love to buy some Samsung", you can in a way, via CAPS, and track its progress.
One thing I like about it is that it also has many fund managers' picks listed as a player (for instance, "trackBillNygren" or "trackJPMorgan") so you can see over time if which houses are full of shit, and which are likely to point you in the right direction.
http://caps.fool.com/
Not sure if anyone else here "plays", but I know that Lawbeef did several years ago.
You can also do free paper trading if your broker allows it. I've been doing that to experience a bit of forex.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Your AAPL pick from Nov 2008 is up about 850%. SELL!!!LawBeefaroni wrote:I haven't been active since around 2011 but I think my account is still there.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Carpet_pissr wrote:LM:
A great way to learn and play at the same time, is to sign up for a free CAPS account at The Motley Fool. You can "pick" stocks, funds or pretty much anything, and track your progress against the S&P and other players.
If you think "I'd love to buy some Samsung", you can in a way, via CAPS, and track its progress.
One thing I like about it is that it also has many fund managers' picks listed as a player (for instance, "trackBillNygren" or "trackJPMorgan") so you can see over time if which houses are full of shit, and which are likely to point you in the right direction.
http://caps.fool.com/
Not sure if anyone else here "plays", but I know that Lawbeef did several years ago.
This only way this is valid is if you do it through a couple market cycles. It's easy to make money in a bull market. It's much, much, much harder to consistently beat the S&P 500 over 10 years.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Good point - I was considering adding something along those lines to my post, but I think that becomes self-evident once you start playing around with it.
I have about 10 years worth of my stock picking behavior data on there, but lack the intelligence to derive any useful information from it.
I have about 10 years worth of my stock picking behavior data on there, but lack the intelligence to derive any useful information from it.
- GreenGoo
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Yeah, I've been lulled into a false sense of awesomeness by bull markets before.
- LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
I have the magic touch.
Regarding my consistently lacking 401k OO asks "What the hell are you doing? I'm making like 20% on my money and I'm just doing what the market does." Not wanting to "time the market", knowing that I don't understand enough to actually understand that the market is overvalued even if the little I believe I know about "the market" tells me it is, I literally put my IRA money into SPY (and to a much lesser extent, Ford) at the peak. So I've now poisoned the S&P.
I am not made for investing.
Long term.
Long term.
Long term.
Ah well, at least I can put my next IRA contribution in in about three weeks where it will be a good time for rebound, right? Right? RIGHT!?!
When I get to the point where I'm have a comfortable saving and have maxed my retirement contributions and start investing non tax incentivized money for probable use in less than 10 years out, I'm going to stress myself into stroking out and then none of this will matter any more.
Regarding my consistently lacking 401k OO asks "What the hell are you doing? I'm making like 20% on my money and I'm just doing what the market does." Not wanting to "time the market", knowing that I don't understand enough to actually understand that the market is overvalued even if the little I believe I know about "the market" tells me it is, I literally put my IRA money into SPY (and to a much lesser extent, Ford) at the peak. So I've now poisoned the S&P.
I am not made for investing.
Long term.
Long term.
Long term.
Ah well, at least I can put my next IRA contribution in in about three weeks where it will be a good time for rebound, right? Right? RIGHT!?!
When I get to the point where I'm have a comfortable saving and have maxed my retirement contributions and start investing non tax incentivized money for probable use in less than 10 years out, I'm going to stress myself into stroking out and then none of this will matter any more.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Oil is causing a panic. Typically the broader market will go up when oil goes down, all other things being equal. But this is some crazy shit going on with oil prices and people are getting cautious. OPEC is playing a game of chicken with US oil producers. Meanwhile, Russia nearly doubled their key interest rate from 10.5% to 17% in an effort to save the ruble. This is one of those times when a lot of money is being made in the market but a lot is also being lost. If you are risk averse don't follow every tick, just watch NBR every night (I know they got bought by stupid CNBC but it's still the best non-hype roundup out there).
We could be in the middle of a broad correction but I think once oil finds a base "the market" will resume it's bullish ways regardless of whether oil starts climbing or not.
Ford got a downgrade but consensus target is still 16 bucks.
Right now I'm looking at oil and dry shipping/Baltic index.
EDIT: By the way, it's a triple-witching week in mid-December. Index options and futures as well as stock options are all expiring. Throw in the fact that funds are all ununwinding a lot of positions for year-end accounting and all this oil business, and you picked an interesting time to dive in.
We could be in the middle of a broad correction but I think once oil finds a base "the market" will resume it's bullish ways regardless of whether oil starts climbing or not.
Ford got a downgrade but consensus target is still 16 bucks.
Right now I'm looking at oil and dry shipping/Baltic index.
EDIT: By the way, it's a triple-witching week in mid-December. Index options and futures as well as stock options are all expiring. Throw in the fact that funds are all ununwinding a lot of positions for year-end accounting and all this oil business, and you picked an interesting time to dive in.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Also looking at oil, but I think you have to be careful about what KIND of oil, i.e. midstream, refiner, exploration, etc.
Looking at Spectra (SE) and Noble (NBL) right now, trying to decide which one might be a better buy currently.
Looking at Spectra (SE) and Noble (NBL) right now, trying to decide which one might be a better buy currently.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
All of it. But getting specific, HAL, CBI, PBR, SDRL. Stuff that's always on my broader watchlist but in focus with the Great Oil Selloff.Carpet_pissr wrote:Also looking at oil, but I think you have to be careful about what KIND of oil, i.e. midstream, refiner, exploration, etc.
PBR is a special case though, it's embroiled in all kinds of government corruption charges right now too. I think it may be getting a bit too battered but I'm not sure.
SE Jan 2017 $35 calls (after about 30 seconds of looking, so huge disclaimer on that: I'm not making any recommendations here). But if I were buying stock, NBL.Carpet_pissr wrote: Looking at Spectra (SE) and Noble (NBL) right now, trying to decide which one might be a better buy currently.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Without getting into too much detail, since I go there about 3x a year and have a business relationship with the company, anecdotally, that place is soooo f$%d up.LawBeefaroni wrote:PBR is a special case though, it's embroiled in all kinds of government corruption charges right now too. I think it may be getting a bit too battered but I'm not sure.
I have always loved their ticker symbol though.
Let me clarify: would you buy shares in what you believed to be one of the worst-run companies you've ever personally encountered or dealt with, even if you thought it was a complete STEAL in terms of valuation?
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
I bought IGT because I hated the CEO and thought her ouster would unlock a ton of value. That worked, kind of, when they got bought out. SIRI was about to go bk and get pieced out to Liberty Media or something when I bought up some of its bones at $0.12. Figured the birds in the sky alone were worth that. Worked out too.Carpet_pissr wrote: Let me clarify: would you buy shares in what you believed to be one of the worst-run companies you've ever personally encountered or dealt with, even if you thought it was a complete STEAL in terms of valuation?
On the other hand, fortunately I wasn't aware of ENE's potential valuation on its way down. IIRC there were a fair amount of supposed steals going on with that one. And I thought C was a steal when I bougth it at $2. Right before it went down to $0.95.
The thing with PBR, everyone I'm seeing perpwalked are former execs. That's good, right? They're gone and getting exposed and prosecuted. Surely they've done substantial housecleaning, right?
We were trying to figure out PBR's book value last night. Their debt is huge, granted, but their tangible book is like 3x their share price. What the hell? Anyway, I split the difference and bet on some 2016 calls. Now I can forget about this car wreck and get back to less dumb stuff.
How about that BA? Increased their dividend and announced a $12B buyback. Love that company.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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- LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
So I put my 2015 Roth IRA into index funds right away. You can blame me for this continued mess.
But more importantly, once I rebuild my savings a bit, I figure it's way safe and way better than my money market or CDs to drop money into long terms bonds that will mature in a year or two's time. I figure I can put money in non callable municipal bonds from within my state with effective rates from the secondary market between 5 and high 5% markers, which way better than the .09% I pull in with my money market and it's not taxable. I'm happy with that. The risk is almost non existent in the bonds I'm looking at, especially if I build enough savings to get myself to the bond maturity date before I buy the bonds. I buy the bonds with every intention of letting them mature.
So I get the difference between rates and effective rates but all of my reading suggests I need to pay attention to YTM or Yield to Maturity. A couple of things I don't understand. 1) Why is this important? 2) The bond coupons don't actually reinvest do they? I can't see anything that tells me they do. If they don't why give me a YTM at all? 3) What relationship to the bond actually makes the number important?
I also want to consult with Scottrade to make sure Bonds are $7 trades per transaction and there is no transaction fee letting them mature, assuming apon maturing the funds go back into my portfolio.
So much to learn. I've been reading like a schoolkid and I still know so little.
But more importantly, once I rebuild my savings a bit, I figure it's way safe and way better than my money market or CDs to drop money into long terms bonds that will mature in a year or two's time. I figure I can put money in non callable municipal bonds from within my state with effective rates from the secondary market between 5 and high 5% markers, which way better than the .09% I pull in with my money market and it's not taxable. I'm happy with that. The risk is almost non existent in the bonds I'm looking at, especially if I build enough savings to get myself to the bond maturity date before I buy the bonds. I buy the bonds with every intention of letting them mature.
So I get the difference between rates and effective rates but all of my reading suggests I need to pay attention to YTM or Yield to Maturity. A couple of things I don't understand. 1) Why is this important? 2) The bond coupons don't actually reinvest do they? I can't see anything that tells me they do. If they don't why give me a YTM at all? 3) What relationship to the bond actually makes the number important?
I also want to consult with Scottrade to make sure Bonds are $7 trades per transaction and there is no transaction fee letting them mature, assuming apon maturing the funds go back into my portfolio.
So much to learn. I've been reading like a schoolkid and I still know so little.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Yield to maturity is important because bonds don't trade at par. They trade like any other security which is whatever the buyer and seller agree to.
So you might have a 5% bond (par value 10,000) that matures in 2 years. If you can buy it at 9,800, then the YTM is 6%. If you buy it at 10,200, then the YTM is 4%.
Also, in unrelated news, I had previously recommended SPY as a set it and forget it type investment. I want to slightly modify that as it is a market weighted fund. It will have more of the big companies and less of the small ones by percentage. RSP, on the other hand, is equal weighted, and historically has done slightly better. In both cases, they contain all the S&P 500 companies.
So you might have a 5% bond (par value 10,000) that matures in 2 years. If you can buy it at 9,800, then the YTM is 6%. If you buy it at 10,200, then the YTM is 4%.
Also, in unrelated news, I had previously recommended SPY as a set it and forget it type investment. I want to slightly modify that as it is a market weighted fund. It will have more of the big companies and less of the small ones by percentage. RSP, on the other hand, is equal weighted, and historically has done slightly better. In both cases, they contain all the S&P 500 companies.
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"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
I may be vastly misreading these then.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
One of the best Motley Fool contributors (mungofitch) pointed out that the ratio of oil stock prices to the cost of a barrel of oil is seriously out of whack
It caused me to sell both my oil stocks.This is the ratio of Exxon stock price to the price of a barrel of WTI oil.
In summary, for most of the last few years you could get around .9 of a barrel of oil for an Exxon share, give or take a bit.
Now you can get 2 barrels. Yowza.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Not sure I buy that as a valid metric considering why oil is down. And it's not like XOM has outpaced oil, oil has fallen out under XOM.
I think oil stocks will continue to take a beating so it's not time yet but when oil reverses they will be great buys.
I think oil stocks will continue to take a beating so it's not time yet but when oil reverses they will be great buys.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
MYT
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton
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