WWL: Chapter 1 - Friday [day] - Stessier: the final siesta

[Grundbegriff]

(Memories: I recall a game in which we were allowed to PM and in which I persuaded Lassr to join me in an alliance of sorts. I think that was the first time I deceived him badly. Which game was that?)

I remember the one where I pm'ed Austin (he was a wolf) and you were the other wolf. Then the last game that we were just talking about where I kept saying I would vote for you the last day but all along I thought Chaos was the other wolf and when I lived through the night that cemented in my mind that it was Chaos. There could have been another somewhere in there but I may have mentally blocked it out...

I think I might be confusing the Lassr/Austin/Grundbegriff nexus with a different game in which I PM'd with pr0ner. Sorry. In any event, good times.



Huh. I can still feel my toes.

[Semaj]

So how are we voting today?
I plan to vote Grund today. Anybody else have a better idea?

Despite the fact that I advocate this-- or perhaps because of it-- I'm taken with how easily some folks make that choice.

if anything, it is a compliment to you. If you live to tomorrow I fear, if you are a wolf, you will be able to manipulate the vote and win. I for one have learned my lesson though.

I just have this troubling feeling that you're hiding behind that excuse. You've said "I've been burned before" and the equivalent a few too many times for my liking.

In any event, let's do this. Good luck to the pair o' humans who survive till tomorrow.

(Memories: I recall a game in which we were allowed to PM and in which I persuaded Lassr to join me in an alliance of sorts. I think that was the first time I deceived him badly. Which game was that?)

heh... what happened to tru1cy?

Anyways... lesse... barring a minor miracle... Tru1cy is dying tonight since like 3 people think he's good. The only other option would be lassr, since he's not really on anyones radar.

My guess is it wont be me or stessier...

So.. the prediction is it's me Stessier and Lassr.

Still think both of em should vote for me?

[stessier]

tru1cy posted in the Football Manager thread last night, so he's around.

[tru1cy]

So our choices are Grund or Semaj? Actually, I could vote for either one at the moment...


Grundbegriff or Semaj...

I still stuck on the thought that in absence of a true seer showing Remus would have killed a known threat..

I'm leaning towards voting for Grund

[stessier]

Okay then.

 Grund 
 

[tru1cy]

 Grundbegriff 
 

[Grundbegriff]

Just remember: I'm human.

See you in the next game.

[Kraegor]

Sitting in a circle the remaining villagers sat in anxious anticipation. Truc1y leaned forward, grasped the bottle and twisted his wrist sharply. Round and round it spun, glass sparkling in reflected light. As it's revolutions wound to a stop the neck pointed squarely at Grundbegriff. The decision made. The four converged on the chosen one. They stripped him. Bound him. Then tossed him unceremoniously into the backyard pond.

They waited patiently. The passage of time marked by intermittent bubbles. They waited longer... and as the sun sank beneath the sky they decided that Grundbegriff was indeed a witch. They discussed who should swim down and verify if Grundbegriff had transformed into a werewolf. Yet, in the growing darkness, the point was deemed moo. They could check in the morning when it was brighter. Comforted and resolute they returned to the house.

Night has fallen
Dream your little dreams
While you still can

A lone wolf howls...
Greeting the moon
On this starless night

[Semaj]

Hey grund, now that you've been spoilerised... How smart do I look for my wolf calls?

Yeah I know your dead and cant answer.... But it's either I remember to tease you now, or I forget in like 45 mins and lose the chance forever.

Although I guess I should tank you for making me evil enough I probably wont die tonight. If I do.. I suggest we all go look at Stessier reaction to newcastle outting himself as Seer

[Lassr]

I was so hoping it would be over.

[Kraegor]

Morning. Breakfast. Various gnawed bones scattered on the table. A Note.

Thanks for helping me decide on what to have for breakfast. Truc1y was delicious. Docile beef truly is the tastiest

[Newcastle]

[Semaj]

Since I seem to enjoy these early morning posts... I'll say no one put a vote on anyone else until they are positive they have a wolf...

Since I am a villager (yes i know a shock)... It means either Lassr... whom I have never had on my list is the Wolf or Stessier who I have been saying all along is probably a wolf is a wolf.

I am _sure_ there are at least 11 other people with spoilers now who are dying to know what happens.

Anyways..

I know who I plan on voting for, but I'd like to hear from the other two individuals. One of you is a wolf and the other one isn't. So, feel free to discuss why you think the other guy is a wolf... At least for me.

The other much worse option is to try and convince the other villager/wolf I am a wolf. Which in theory works, but loses the game.

So much fun to be had today... yummies.

[Lassr]

Please do not place a vote until we can all chime in. I will be able to go over everything tomorrow afternoon. Wife has some outpatient surgery in the morning so I'll be unavailable for a little while.

[Lassr]

Now that we know Grund was a villager we can start with his analysis before death.

First: I pressed Lassr intermittently throughout the game in an attempt to break his composure in some small way that might yield a tell. He answered reasonably each time. That might make me think he's human if it weren't for the fact that we went through this loop once before and he turned out to be evil. In the early days, Lassr would slip when evil; by now, he's a polished performer and presents an unbreakable front.

Even so, I think Lassr is human for a separate reason: the way he rode Remus after the revelation that Unagi had been killed. It's not just that he took on Remus; Remus's partner might well do that. But what persuades me is the way Lassr did this: he appealed to his growing sense of Bubbles's guilt --a sense I shared-- and he pointed out that Remus lacked that sense. Then Lassr called a lot of attention to the prospect that Remus had framed himself. On the whole, Remus wasn't garnering much attention at that point, and it would've been prudent for a Remus-partner to coast. But Lassr mounted a genuine and persuasive argument-- persuasive enough, it seems, that Newcastle decided to scan Remus in light of Unagi's plea and Lassr's analysis of it.

So I'm projecting that Lassr is human.

Second: I thought it was odd that stessier seemed atypically cranky and remote in the midgame. But I'm not sure I gauged that correctly. Re-reading his full contribution, he looks pretty stessieresque in the early game. He's hard to read, unless he pokes the innocents, so I'm not confident about this. But there is a factor that makes me think stessier is human: his analysis of the vote, in which he notices that because he and Remus remained constant in the voting tracks that stessier had defined, it must be the case either that two wolves voted against Bubbles or that two voted against theohall. (Bullet point #3 in this post).

What impresses me there is that stessier's actually doing a good bit of deductive analysis as if the elbow grease is really meant to yield a clue. He doesn't seem to be going through the motions. Of course, that could all be window dressing. Even so, I think I recognize this stessier-inquiry-mode as genuine, and I seem to recall seeing him do this when he was really on the lookout for evildoers.

So I'm projecting that stessier is human.

That leaves tru1cy and Semaj.

Third: Initially I made a big deal of the fact that tru1cy had posted slightly more than normal. And it's true that tru1cy has been somewhat more engaged in this game than is typical. (And that's a good thing, regardless of alignment. tru1cy is a valuable veteran who brings his own thing to the game.) My impression was sincere, but I overemphasized it for effect to see whether anyone else would find it interesting, and to see whether tru1cy would change under pressure. (He didn't.) Now that I've reread the thread more carefully, it seems to me that tru1cy wasn't actually acting all that strangely; in each case, he explains himself adequately. In no case does he do anything that looks even remotely synchronized with Remus.

I can't point to a concrete piece of evidence that tilts me in this case; tru1cy is a man of few words.

But I think he's probably human.

Fourth: I think Semaj is the other werewolf.

There's the fact that he expressed suspicion about The Meal, who isn't even playing the game. I know that when I'm innocent, I pay a lot of attention to who the other players are; however, to an evildoer, they're just boxes on the to-do list.

There's the huge superabundance of participation. I hadn't realized along the way just how much Semaj was posting. But rereading the thread makes it clear that he is outdoing himself when it comes to volume of posting.

Then there's the quality of all that material: it's long on words but short on substance. For example, in one case he wrote a summary of the game up to that point. But it wasn't just a summary: he paraphrased each post by every player into a single short sentence and then posted the whole list without meaningfully making use of all that stuff.

There's also his major overreaction to one of my arguments against theohall.

Likewise, it seemed that every time there was a lag or delay, he cropped up to post a roster of suspects or threat matrix, as if to expedite the decision at hand.

I'm projecting that Semaj is the other Wolf.

As I've stated before the one thing that bothers me with stessier is the many quotes of posts like he's doing work to find a wolf as a cover. Not the fact that you are looking for the last wolf but the method being used. Newcastle has done it twice as a wolf, I recall doing it once and I believe someone else. He also has not stirred up much trouble in this game. A lot of posts but not rocking the boat.

Semaj bothers me for the fact that he has not looked as evil this game. Also not rocking the boat keeping him from being noticed. His normal play would have a huge target painted on his head but not this game. Trying to survive by changing his game play. Wolf trying to hide or villager that just wants to live for a change?

That's my recollection after the past few weeks and through OO outages. I'll reread tomorrow when I have some free time.


edit to add: I went ahead and read a few pages and semaj was little more active and confrontational than I remembered...

[Lassr]

Group 1: Lassr, Lagom, Semaj, theohall, Remus
Group 2: tru1cy, stessier, Newcastle, Grund

From my point of view, I have the best chance of finding a wolf by voting for someone in my group. Not sure why this is all that complicated or sinister for you.

that would leave you now.

[Lassr]

-semaj makes a post saying that he doubts unagi will be killed at night.

.

Interesting, I don't remember that statement. Have to go back and reread.

Lemme save you the time.

I never understood someone asking to be scanned after leading a unsuccessful lynch.

I mean I am not ragging on you by any stretch, he seemed guilty to me as well. But...

I cannot forsee a time when the wolves would kill you tonight. If the seer does scan you and someone leads a train to kill you tomorrow why would he speak up? it would be a waste of a scan. Now if we think the wolves and the villagers will let you live 2 or so days, then yeah you are a solid scan target. Much like if he thinks you are a wolf.

My opinion is, unless you are playing a way too out there wolf, you probably are a villager who led the charge wrongly. We've all done it. It's day one, I wont exactly be burying you tomorrow for it... But... Who voted, who didnt vote and who did what today now becomes of much more importance and after the night kill we should all have a lot more to work with.

this still bothers me. Cannot forsee Unagi dying...well by golly he did die. Preemptive strike for goodness maybe.

[Semaj]

-semaj makes a post saying that he doubts unagi will be killed at night.

.

Interesting, I don't remember that statement. Have to go back and reread.

Lemme save you the time.

I never understood someone asking to be scanned after leading a unsuccessful lynch.

I mean I am not ragging on you by any stretch, he seemed guilty to me as well. But...

I cannot forsee a time when the wolves would kill you tonight. If the seer does scan you and someone leads a train to kill you tomorrow why would he speak up? it would be a waste of a scan. Now if we think the wolves and the villagers will let you live 2 or so days, then yeah you are a solid scan target. Much like if he thinks you are a wolf.

My opinion is, unless you are playing a way too out there wolf, you probably are a villager who led the charge wrongly. We've all done it. It's day one, I wont exactly be burying you tomorrow for it... But... Who voted, who didnt vote and who did what today now becomes of much more importance and after the night kill we should all have a lot more to work with.

this still bothers me. Cannot forsee Unagi dying...well by golly he did die. Preemptive strike for goodness maybe.

And I still say it's a bad play. It's also something I'll willingly argue to my grave. It's not a wrong, at all, statement. And I think, but I am way too damn lazy to check, everyone who said that (short of remus who said it was a framejob on him, which is odd, since it seemed to be way more possible it was worse looking for me) was a villager. Unless you count Newcastle, who was the seer...

I also said I didnt think Unagi was a wolf and he got killed for it. Hey that sounds just like what happened to Tru1cy... I wonder if thats what got Unagi Killed. Shit... if thats the case, my bad...

However, I have also said, as much as I was hoping Newcastle was faking seer, he seemed genuine and we should test remus for it.

Or me now saying Stess and Grund Condemned Tru1cy to death by announcing he was not a wolf. Thats something you post today, not yesterday, hoping they (The wolves) give him a free ride. Do we have a problem with me saying these things, or that fact they are right?

I kept my thoughts fairly simple and out there for anyone who wanted to read. I however have not, nor do I feel the need to, preach about who is a wolf and why every 15 minutes. I noticed most people dont. They test players, they call em out and they go on. The only people this game who really tried to railroad anyone was Theo, Unagi and Newcastle and in theory grund on me yesterday... To be fair, Newcastle knew Remus was a wolf. And he was the only one who was right. Which reminds me... me and someone are having a long talk about his "I KNOW Grund is a wolf." Thing, because he was not only wrong, but essentially faking being a seer.

The fact I've said: These are my wolves, this is who I will vote for, if any of you agree, let me know. Does that make me a wolf? I dont think so. it means I might, crazy as it sounds, be trying to look a little respectable in this whole league concept. Not going crazy at the drop of a hat. Oddly, I dont see this as a bad thing from my end.

However, what is killing me and the point of this post is this:

Amazing how everyone assumes I didnt do any posting or anything about calling people out. And then they go back through and read and realize they just plain either ignored what I wrote, skipped over it or something else. I guess when you are waiting for Semajaculation and it doesnt occur, it must mean I never did anything?

Yeah,... I posted... Yeah... I called some people out... Next time I'll make banners for you blind people

[Semaj]

When do you think stessier is going to rear his ugly head?

[Semaj]

And man do I mean ugly...

[stessier]

When do you think stessier is going to rear his ugly head?

When I wake up.

I agree with not voting until we've had some time to discuss. Hopefully I'll be able to look over things by this afternoon, but it may be as late as this evening because we're having a wee bit of a blizzard here and I have to go out and shovel. I'm not sure how much good it's going to do with 30mph winds, but I at least have to try. (I only live 2.5 miles from work, so it's going to be hard to call in and say I'm out for weather - especially when my boss has to drive over an hour to get in).

[Lassr]

read through and right now I think it is stessier.

[stessier]

Re-reading.

[stessier]

read through and right now I think it is stessier.

Interesting. Why?

[Lassr]

read through and right now I think it is stessier.

Interesting. Why?

after reading through, if Semaj is the wolf then I give him exception credit, but some of his posts have felt human to me. I have not gotten that from any of your posts.

I will give both of you credit now, I was leaning semaj before reading through the post now I'm barely leaning you. I can find nothing concrete I can point to on either of you. With my history of last day votes I may have to pull a George Costanza and do the opposite of my gut reaction though.

[stessier]

Okay, finished re-reading. I think you need to go back through it again Lassr. I believe Semaj is our wolf.*

*One niggling little question - Lassr, how/when did you come to the conclusion that Grund was faking Seer? It just seemed like you ignored everything else and knew it from the get go.

During the re-read, I was kind of switching back and forth between the two of you but I kept coming back to this choice:

Ima throw this one out there for funziez.... Both lads could be faking seer, it could be Grund and Newcastle both as wolves, which would make me way happier. I guess it all hinges on whether Remus is a wolf. Not sure why they would make the play tho... Grund getting near death for this game? Hoping to buy him at least 1 day if not credibility? Anyways... I am down for testing remus since it'll get us a wolf regardless and if the "wolves" let "grund" live through 2 nights, clearly he is lying as well. Although I do like newcastles arguing/defense/etc.... Course Grund prolly has the same hints. Bleh... at least the last 2 or 3 days will be interesting.

This was after Grund had counterclaimed Newcastle. What got me was that his decision to test Remus in the face of conflicting claims wasn't just the wrong choice, it was the choice that caused the greatest confusion on subsequent days, particularly in light of the fact that we know Grund wasn't a wolf.

And that made me think about what Semaj had been pushing since the beginning.

After the Bubbles vote, he was confident there was a wolf off the vote. Theohall and Lagom both died, but he kept his focus on the "Off vote group" {Grund, Newcastle, stessier, tru1cy} even though the "On Bubbles" group was down to {Lassr, Semaj, Remus}. During this time he re-iterates how Grund can not make it to the end...we have to be sure to lynch him if he lasts too long. He is steadfast in my wofly appearance, but vacillates on Newcastle and tru1cy. He never states his reasons for these choices, just that he's always felt this way.

Then, we get to yesterday and human Grund names Semaj a wolf. Semaj retorts

Yup, but as you said, the werewolves win if you dont die.

P: Any Villager who wakes up tomorrow will have to vote against one of the two remaining players. If I'm one of those players tomorrow, then the other Villager will say this to himself: "Grundbegriff is alive on the final day. That only happens if he's evil. Therefore, I have to vote against Grundbegriff." Then he'll vote against me, the Wolf will jump on the vote, and the Werewolves will win the game. Am I mistaken about this? I don't think so. And this means that there's a sure two-step path to Werewolf Victory: (1) Keep me alive today, and (2) Keep me alive tonight.

So yes you are correct. Because most of us assume you are a wolf if you make it to the final day, there is nothing surprising about this, rumor has it you are pretty darn good at this game. For not quite the same reason, the wolves rarely kill me. I'm one of those enigmas wrapped in a puzzle. I always seem wolfish, and when I don't, I seem more wolfish. Combined with my lack of attention to detail, it makes me phenomenally easy to convince others to lynch without doing all the dirty work. You know this is sadly true. Good or evil, I have this tendency to argue way too much. It usually ends up with a noose around my neck and a few people chuckling in the background. Most of this game, I have had Stessier near my top baddies and once Tru1cy ended day 2, he became one of my top baddies as well, along with you grund. Never said you were a wolf, said if you are too dangerous to keep around, in case you are a wolf. You agree with this and you know it's day 4. Now ask yourself something. And try hard to think of it this way. Imagine I actually am a villager, hope of all hopes. I know, crazy right? Well if I am a villager and in theory you are one.. this narrows down our wolf searching pool. Now look back at what I've said, who I have said it to, what they have done in response. Now you tell me... who do you think I would be guessing is a wolf and why? Now think some more. If I am not the wolf, based on my viewpoint, who do you think really is the final wolf? Me... I have a decent idea, which is why I like my chances of picking correctly in that coin flip tomorrow... Like I said though, this only works if you try looking at it from my perspective.

(I added the underlined color). tru1cy was one of his top baddies, but then I figure out that tru1cy has to be human and Semaj comes back with the fact that I ruined his "test." No one knew what he was talking about so he "explained":

Well... Since no one wants to think... If you say 1 person is good and two people need to die... for 3 straight days... and the last day is the good person and someone who needs to die, who would you actually vote for?

That tells me he knew tru1cy was good 3 days ago - before his comment to Newcastle. How did he know? tru1cy had said like a dozen words this game, but Semaj was comfortable enough to say there was 1 good person?

And then he drives home the point:

Well... Since no one wants to think... If you say 1 person is good and two people need to die... for 3 straight days... and the last day is the good person and someone who needs to die, who would you actually vote for?

That would depend on (a) how confident you are that you've correctly classified the "good" person and (b) whether you're a Wolf.

sometimes, I just love how you refuse to look and just throw the word wolf out there for funziez. Unless someone paints me as a wolf, which you did, and I was confident I am a villager, which I am, then who in their right mind would put me who wanted them dead for 3 straight days in against someone I have no intention of voting for.

He had "no intention" of voting for him. I just can't see how anyone could come to that conclusion so early.

It's also amazing how well insulated he was from Remus. They didn't interact and had different wolf lists. It was set up so that if one went down, the other could just keep going.

So Semaj wanted Grund to remain an enigma as long as possible, knew tru1cy was good very early on, was upset when we figured out tru1cy was good, and ended up getting everyone he thought was a wolf alive yesterday with the one person he was fairly sure wasn't a wolf (Lassr). Yeah, I think Semaj is the wolf.

If not, congrats to Lassr. I'm not going to feel as bad about this one as the whole triggercut fiasco - at least this time we made it to the final day.

[Semaj]

Oddly... I meant less about tru1cy and more about you that whole ficasso. If you were the wolf and let me, who I said I would kill repeatedly and Lassr, who I had said I would have a hard time believing he was a wolf...live over tru1cy. I would probably have voted for Lassr on principle, which he himself would agree with, since he did it with grund.

However with the outting of Tru1cy, it became a moot point since in my eyes the wolves _had_ to kill tru1cy last night.

Thats what I was saying. Try to paint it how ya want.

Lassr thinks I am good, bearly, I know I am good, which means it's between you and lassr for who the final wolf is. You think it's me, but it can't be lassr? Interesting.

So if you are the wolf and steadfast in your voting of me, lassr wins. If it's lassr as the other villager we should win this game eventually.

I'ma go back through and show you what made me wonder about your wolfieness level.s

[Semaj]

Sidenote: As I read, this sticks out...

might be what got unagi killed... just food for thought because it seems way more likely now than it did then

Right now I like where my vote is. It was pretty much a dart throw to start but Unagi's comments about a group of folks "not to vote for" seems odd to me today. As does his comments regarding Semaj. Really, if someone is pinging evil why not vote them? What possible reason could someone have right now not to vote for someone else? Scared you'll take the blame if they turn up Human?

Very odd.
I just played evil, and did I EVER play (have I EVER played) evil as if I was scared to be caught killing "humans"?

Also, I didn't make a list of who not to lynch.
I made a list of people I thought the Seer should scan because they are good to have cleared.

The reason I am not currently voting for Semaj is because I like my vote on Mr Bubbles. I liked his reply, I feel even better about it than I did when I placed it.

BTW, the way you framed your thoughts on Grund, sounded pokey. "Dangerous to both sides" - sounds like a wolf talking, not a villager.... but - still, I think you make a better scan tonight then you do a lynch test today.

Basically the people I am most willing to lynch (and I have no real compelling reason to not vote for anyone of you hairy mother lovers, either ) are simply the people I don't think I'll get much "help" from throughout the game, even if they are scanned 'good guy'. Do ya get it? (I should perhaps add NewCastle to my list, as I think he can be an asset once proven.)

Heck, there is also the other theory: People that are scanned good are (after the Seer) prime targets. Perhaps we should indeed scan the quiet ones - so that, if they are found "Good", their night kill isn't a big hit to our brain-storming.

I think I like that idea even better.

Seer: scan Tru1cy.

Made go hrrm...with:

stessier is contractually obligated to vote you off now.

and Remus is contractually obligated to kiss my ass, once you hang furball.

So I feel a lot less like my comments got him killed, huzzah.

Anyways back to the important shizzle... I am going through... I will find the key things inside half an hourish..

[Semaj]

Expect a few posts form me today, I dont think I wanna put more than 2 or 3 in each one.

This post sticks out

I don't know if it was an attempt to frame me

interesting.

Unagi's last act was to request that either he or I be scanned. Sort of an accusation. I didn't say it was a strong attempt but still could have been. Could have been any of the reasons I listed, including the ones you left off the quote.

here's the reason I left just that part of your post:

When Unagi died I found it odd that the wolves would kill someone that had a target on their head or was just so wrong about an innocent player.
Why? first thought was it obviously was an attempt at a frame.
So who is the obvious frame I asked:
I looked back and when you kept saying to Unagi you saw Nothing that made you suspect Mr. Bubbles I kept thinking "really?" Because me as an innocent villager sure began thinking Mr. Bubbles was getting really defensive about getting lynched to be just an everyday villager. I began to suspect he was a wolf more and more. The fact that you said you saw nothing when I did made me think you knew something I didn't. Then I thought well I wouldn't put it past Wolf Remus to frame himself.

Then you mention the frame job as the first thought in your post. It just made me go Hmmmm.

interesting... I have a question for ya now lassr:
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/v ... 0#p1487915" target="_blank

Starting there...
Obviously the two main possibilities at the time were Theo (Onnocent) and Grund(Innocent). Remus had just jumped on the Theo train. You said you were debating Theo, and then voted for Newcastle.

Any Particular reason?

OK so far I have read 2 days worth of crud... mainly the theo hall-Grund war of tuesday.

I'm going to go back and see if Lagom said anything crazy I missed to get himself killed. That would stick out, like Unagi's comments in my previous post did. So it's going to take a little longer than half an hour.... Sigh.

[Semaj]

Oddly... I meant less about tru1cy and more about you that whole ficasso. If you were the wolf and let me, who I said I would kill repeatedly and Lassr, who I had said I would have a hard time believing he was a wolf...live over tru1cy. I would probably have voted for Lassr on principle, which he himself would agree with, since he did it with grund.

However with the outting of Tru1cy, it became a moot point since in my eyes the wolves _had_ to kill tru1cy last night.

Thats what I was saying. Try to paint it how ya want.

Lassr thinks I am good, bearly, I know I am good, which means it's between you and lassr for who the final wolf is. You think it's me, but it can't be lassr? Interesting.

So if you are not the wolf and steadfast in your voting of me, lassr wins. If it's lassr as the other villager we should win this game eventually.

I'ma go back through and show you what made me wonder about your wolfieness level.s

fixed... grumble...

[Lassr]

interesting... I have a question for ya now lassr:
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/v ... 0#p1487915" target="_blank

Starting there...
Obviously the two main possibilities at the time were Theo (Onnocent) and Grund(Innocent). Remus had just jumped on the Theo train. You said you were debating Theo, and then voted for Newcastle.

Any Particular reason?

 Newcastle 
 


I keep flip flopping on Newcastle, he keeps dwelling on the Unagi kill in numerous posts and lists several possible reasons for Unagi's death, it's just feels as if he's justifying why him and his partner killed him.

the answer is right there with my vote-
Newcastle felt more wolfish.

Theohall was too aggressive toward Grund to be a wolf to me (if I recall correctly).

[Semaj]

Yeah, it's why I voted for Grund... I also then said before we get too happy with the voes, we needed to talk a lot more. I was positive Theo was either being an idiot or essentially outting himself as the seer. In which case with the seer option, I'll give him some room to do things.

Havent gone back to chekc on Lagom yet... was trying to go through to the point that made me really wonder about Stessier.

Why on earth would Newc step forward as Seer, though, and not fully share his information in the same post? There's little room for subterfuge under these rules.

And even less since he said he had a Wolf.

Actually, the only reason I can think of not to come right out with it is to verify the Seer is actually dead. If he is the Seer, the wolves have to know they can't counter claim. So yeah, the delay is not a good sign.

On the other hand, I don't know if it matters. I was thinking about this on the treadmill.

Newcastle names a wolf. We lynch the target. If not a wolf, we lynch Newcastle tomorrow and go into the last day with Russian Roullette.

If the target is a wolf, we still have 2 lynches to find the last one. Newcastle will die at night, so we'll at least not have to worry about tru1cy tomorrow. At worst, we end up in the same situation as if Newcastle is a wolf and we lynch a non-wolf he points to.

So I think, barring someone Kelricing, that we lynch the target and see what happens.

Then

 Newcastle 
 


So we hit one today. Thanks. Also helps that you changed your story from the initial post where you claimed tru1cy was a villager to claiming to have scanned Lagom Lite who is dead. Grund's comment about having to give us an innocent make you change your mind?

When Newcastle comes out with the announcement Remsu is the wolf. Followed by:

/does the happy dance

we got our two wolves...villagers won! villagers won!

you know we must test you to be sure though. If you are a villager then we win by killing grund and remus the next 2 days.

Actually that wasn't what I had planned, but that really strikes me as Odd... You said we kill the lynch target and then say we test the seer first.

But here is the stessier bit I wondered about:

So right now...going back through the players list...this is where i am standing, a bit more expanded.

Remus - WOLF
Grund - most likely the partner wolf (around 90% sure, could still be wrong, but i am highly doubtful)

Dude, are you the Seer or not? Grund is claiming Seer and you are claiming Seer. How can you be only 90% sure on this one? Kelric much?

Wolfy Grund doesn't claim Seer.
But Grund did claim Seer.
Newcastle also claims Seer - but is only 90% sure Grund is bad.

Yeah
 Newcastle 
 


Who are your scans Grund?

You then hop on the Newcastle Train, which is , in order: Grund, Remus and then you... before letting this play out. Either you didnt fear a wolf jumping on the pile (which you should) or you were trying to get a train finished. This is when I stopped saying you might be evil and started saying I like my pick. Because Grund then realises Newcastle is about to die, and since he is faking seer, he drops the train, leaving you and Remus to either drop off or completely show wolf levels.

So if you wonder when and why I decided I liked you as a wolf, thats it.

Feel free to explain the method to your madness there.

[Lassr]

 Newcastle 
 


So we hit one today. Thanks. Also helps that you changed your story from the initial post where you claimed tru1cy was a villager to claiming to have scanned Lagom Lite who is dead. Grund's comment about having to give us an innocent make you change your mind?

When Newcastle comes out with the announcement Remsu is the wolf. Followed by:

/does the happy dance

we got our two wolves...villagers won! villagers won!

you know we must test you to be sure though. If you are a villager then we win by killing grund and remus the next 2 days.

Actually that wasn't what I had planned, but that really strikes me as Odd... You said we kill the lynch target and then say we test the seer first.

.

if you read more you'll see that the Newcastle first strategy was if Grund came forward with scan targets. I suspected he would not though.

[Semaj]

No i get the concept... but how is grund a worse scan target? Newcastle says I have a wolf... He doesnt say who, it was his game of chicken to see if he could get both instead of just one, I knew what he was doing and I assume most did. If your a wolf and you make this call, you already have your scan targets picked out. Which is why I wasn't to keen to get on Newcastle. I wasnt sure what the nonsense was, but Newcastle felt more genuine in what he was doing. newcaslte had either been setting this up for a while and was a wolf (Which I would be happy with) or Grund was faking. As such, the easiest test wasnt the guy claiming seer, it's the guy he claims is a wolf.

I recall this bit of logic thrown in my face during the Justice League Game when I called Austin a fake within like 2 hours of him claiming wonder woman.

[Lassr]

No i get the concept... but how is grund a worse scan target? Newcastle says I have a wolf... He doesnt say who, it was his game of chicken to see if he could get both instead of just one, I knew what he was doing and I assume most did. If your a wolf and you make this call, you already have your scan targets picked out. Which is why I wasn't to keen to get on Newcastle. I wasnt sure what the nonsense was, but Newcastle felt more genuine in what he was doing. newcaslte had either been setting this up for a while and was a wolf (Which I would be happy with) or Grund was faking. As such, the easiest test wasnt the guy claiming seer, it's the guy he claims is a wolf.

any strategy I would have recommended would have come down to Grund's scan results (if he had any). If Grund came forward with 2 villagers then I would say lynch Newcastle if Human then you have your 2 wolves in Grund and Remus. If Grund had a wolf scan I would have said lynch Grund and see what he is since a second seer coming forward with a wolf scan also would have been a big coincidence. I would not have said lynch their wolf scans because what if they were both wolves and we lynched 2 villagers finding that out. I think we would have lost if that happen (if I remember correctly).

But as I said it was fairly obvious to me that Grund was testing Newcastle so I toyed with Newcastle to see how he would respond.

I think that is what you were asking.

[Lassr]

*One niggling little question - Lassr, how/when did you come to the conclusion that Grund was faking Seer? It just seemed like you ignored everything else and knew it from the get go.

I didn't know, I suspected. It just seemed like something Grund would do. When Newcastle delayed his reveal I began to wonder if he was waiting on the real seer to come forward. He made his scan reveal and then Grund went "Boom" but held back his scan results. It felt like the typical Grund trap.

[Lassr]

waiting around on stessier...

[Semaj]

No i get the concept... but how is grund a worse scan target? Newcastle says I have a wolf... He doesnt say who, it was his game of chicken to see if he could get both instead of just one, I knew what he was doing and I assume most did. If your a wolf and you make this call, you already have your scan targets picked out. Which is why I wasn't to keen to get on Newcastle. I wasnt sure what the nonsense was, but Newcastle felt more genuine in what he was doing. newcaslte had either been setting this up for a while and was a wolf (Which I would be happy with) or Grund was faking. As such, the easiest test wasnt the guy claiming seer, it's the guy he claims is a wolf.

any strategy I would have recommended would have come down to Grund's scan results (if he had any). If Grund came forward with 2 villagers then I would say lynch Newcastle if Human then you have your 2 wolves in Grund and Remus. If Grund had a wolf scan I would have said lynch Grund and see what he is since a second seer coming forward with a wolf scan also would have been a big coincidence. I would not have said lynch their wolf scans because what if they were both wolves and we lynched 2 villagers finding that out. I think we would have lost if that happen (if I remember correctly).

But as I said it was fairly obvious to me that Grund was testing Newcastle so I toyed with Newcastle to see how he would respond.

I think that is what you were asking.

At this point I figure we are just killing time until he decides to log on and post something....

I think the choice is more of a philosophical debate at this point, i'm trying to do the endgame math on it on whether it matters.

What grund says matters... but I look at it more from a math prespective.

Newcaslte says he has a wolf, Grund claims seer.

Say Newcastle is not faking:
Test Newcastles wolf, we get a wolf, then we deal with grund.

Say newcaslte is faking. Grund lists 2 people.. possible suspects.
We have 2 misses...At least i think we did.
Newcastles test subject... Then Newcastle.
Then... hrm... how do you test grund? With 2 misses you might be screwed...

OK... I see why you might have to test one of the seers with only 2 misses. At which point it boils down to who is more trust-able, etc.

Hrm... That would be a wild gambit for 2 wolves to pull with 2 misses remaining.

But if they test a seer first, they lose. Interesting math.

[stessier]

Sorry guys - no internet at home last night.

Reading...

[Lassr]

But if they test a seer first, they lose. Interesting math.