Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:34 pm

I was just idly thinking that the US military, the intelligence community, and probably the FBI and related agencies probably have some kind of what if plan to deal with a biological warfare attack on the US. Why couldn't we just implement whatever that plan says, leaving out any retaliation oriented actions since we have no one to retaliate against for this?

It worries me that so many in high office fall back on 'we're in uncharted territory' disclaimers. I thought our people had plans for everything, up to and including an alien invasion or zombie apocalypse. I guess I overestimated them.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:43 pm

gameoverman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:34 pm I was just idly thinking that the US military, the intelligence community, and probably the FBI and related agencies probably have some kind of what if plan to deal with a biological warfare attack on the US.

Maybe not on this scale?

Or maybe Trump fired the response team that would have prepared for that possibility, too?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:51 pm

https://twitter.com/thefix/status/12382 ... 93154?s=20

19 times Trump downplayed the coronavirus.

link

Roman · Post by **Roman** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:29 pm Sourcing Seth Abramson is one thing, but sourcing NPR is quite another. This is disgusting, and it's totally expected.

Trump lives only in the current news cycle. To his mind, bad headlines today are far worse than death counts next week.

To be honest I have no idea who he is or what NPR means to the US political system. Are they both just gossip type shit?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:56 pm

gameoverman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:34 pm I was just idly thinking that the US military, the intelligence community, and probably the FBI and related agencies probably have some kind of what if plan to deal with a biological warfare attack on the US. Why couldn't we just implement whatever that plan says, leaving out any retaliation oriented actions since we have no one to retaliate against for this?

It worries me that so many in high office fall back on 'we're in uncharted territory' disclaimers. I thought our people had plans for everything, up to and including an alien invasion or zombie apocalypse. I guess I overestimated them.

Military/intelligence plans are surely focused on keeping the government operational in order to coordinate defensive responses against attack. They're not geared towards cushioning long-term economic damage to ordinary Americans.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:57 pm

Roman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
Holman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:29 pm Sourcing Seth Abramson is one thing, but sourcing NPR is quite another. This is disgusting, and it's totally expected.

Trump lives only in the current news cycle. To his mind, bad headlines today are far worse than death counts next week.
To be honest I have no idea who he is or what NPR means to the US political system. Are they both just gossip type shit?

Seth Abramson definitely is a sanctimonious grifter who's made his name with ridiculous tweetstorms dissecting Trump and Russia and all that.

NPR is the US's "public radio" station, as it was created by an act of Congress.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 pm

Roman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
Holman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:29 pm Sourcing Seth Abramson is one thing, but sourcing NPR is quite another. This is disgusting, and it's totally expected.

Trump lives only in the current news cycle. To his mind, bad headlines today are far worse than death counts next week.
To be honest I have no idea who he is or what NPR means to the US political system. Are they both just gossip type shit?

Seth Abramson is an independent pundit who has occasionally stepped in shit.

NPR is the closest thing America has to the BBC.

Yeah, there's a difference.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:59 pm

Migrated from EBG thread - I wonder if Mitch would agree that murder is impeachable?

https://twitter.com/nprfreshair/status/ ... 9690429440

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:59 pm

https://twitter.com/davelozo/status/1238092240712499202

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:02 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 pm
Roman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
Holman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:29 pm Sourcing Seth Abramson is one thing, but sourcing NPR is quite another. This is disgusting, and it's totally expected.

Trump lives only in the current news cycle. To his mind, bad headlines today are far worse than death counts next week.
To be honest I have no idea who he is or what NPR means to the US political system. Are they both just gossip type shit?
Seth Abramson is an independent pundit who has occasionally stepped in shit.

NPR is the closest thing America has to the BBC.

Yeah, there's a difference.

Big time - it is considered neutral aka "center" in the rating. However, the GOP calls it liberal since they've taken the crazy train to racist-town and essentially everything became liberal/socialist/communist aka non-white.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:09 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:59 pm Migrated from EBG thread - I wonder if Mitch would agree that murder is impeachable?

President cannot commit murder.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:02 pm

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1238 ... 54400?s=20

link

The nation is literally ruled by Stephen Miller and Jared Kushner. Think about that.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:07 pm

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wife tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/ ... ronavirus/

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:15 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:33 pm Disney closing California parks starting Saturday through the end of the month. Park workers will be paid.

No word on Florida.

Disney World and Disneyland are closing amid coronavirus pandemic

Disney is closing its parks in California, Florida and Paris, and is suspending its cruise line due to the coronavirus pandemic. While there have been no reported cases of COVID-19 at these parks or on the ships, officials announced on Thursday that the parks and cruises will be close close this weekend until the end of the month.

In a statement Thursday afternoon, Disney said there have been no reported cases of COVID-19 at Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, California. But the company announced plans to close Disneyland Park and Disney California adventure beginning the morning of March 14 through the end of the month as a precautionary measure.

A few hours later, Disney announced that the theme parks at Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Florida, and the Disneyland Paris Resort will close beginning at the close of business on March 15. Disney Cruise Line will suspend all new departures beginning March 14.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm

Holman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:02 pmThe nation is literally ruled by Stephen Miller and Jared Kushner. Think about that.

That's scary but the body of evidence that this crisis is being managed this way...I hate to say it but our nation is a complete wreck right now. There needs to be a reckoning if he leaves. He needs to be investigated thoroughly. Warren's proposals on this merit a look. We can't *ever* have a repeat of this debacle. Everyone of his enabling grifters need to be drummed out of public service forever.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:34 pm

Mitch McConnell will get right to it after his 3 day weekend, no worries.

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1238177967752257541

As @SpeakerPelosi & Steve Mnuchin negotiate, @senatemajldr has left the building to head home for the weekend. Senate to address any House coronavirus legislation next week

I genuinely hope he accidentally trips on his patio again...numerous times.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:38 pm

I often wonder if it wouldn't be so bad if the Bernie's Bros were running a guillotine in Central Park. The only catch is Mitch's natural defenses will kick in and his head will be protected in a hard shell.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm

This seems like an insanely high estimate, IMO

Ohio Department of Health believes 100,000 Ohioans are carrying coronavirus

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/statu ... 3126604801

If that were the case, wouldn't we see a lot fewer negative test results (of most likely cases)?

(Edit: And a lot more deaths)

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm

If only there was a way to find out. If only there was a way to determine viral levels nationwide. I wonder how we could do that?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:41 pm

Defiant wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm This seems like an insanely high estimate, IMO

I don't know what the basis of the 1% claim is but the rub is *no one knows*. This administration is largely the reason why we are flying blind.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:17 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:41 pmIdon't know what the basis of the 1% claim is but the rub is *no one knows*. This administration is largely the reason why we are flying blind.

One of the science people I've been following over the last month posted his analysis of the estimate:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238290215178887169

I very respectfully disagree with the estimate of 100k #COVID19 infections in Ohio put forth by the @OHdeptofhealth. As far as I can ascertain from the press coverage (https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/con ... oronavirus …), this number comes from extrapolating from 2 community cases detected.

Science man...every time.

I'm also seeing some scattered reports now that China's first cases were traced back to 11/17/19.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:04 am

Yeah, that's part of why I thought the numbers were crazy.

I will, however, criticize one part of his argument.

it took the virus from ~Nov 1 to Feb 1 to reach 100k infections in Wuhan. This is ~90 days. Thus, it would have had to have been circulating in Ohio since mid-Dec for this to be the case

But in Wuhan, you presumably only had a single source. It's possible in Ohio that there were multiple sources that came from outside of Ohio, each spreading the virus (indeed, I would think it very likely if it is as widespread as they suggest), which would reduce the time necessary.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:35 am

I wouldn't use the time it took to spread inside China as a basis for comparison. I'd use the time it took to go from one country outside China having an infection detected to where we are now which is around 100 countries right? As it spreads it also spreads faster because more people are infected which means more people are passing it on. I don't know how they got the 100k number but it wouldn't surprise if it was close to that. Ultimately it amounts to the same implication whether there are 10k cases there or 100k- it's spreading in the wild far beyond what official numbers show.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:45 am

it took the virus from ~Nov 1 to Feb 1 to reach 100k infections in Wuhan. This is ~90 days. Thus, it would have had to have been circulating in Ohio since mid-Dec for this to be the case

Do we know when China had 100k infections? We're not talking about confirmed, diagnosed cases here, we're talking about total cases.

Formix · Post by **Formix** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:17 am

The tough thing about using China as a guide - they straight up quarantined millions. Nobody else is doing that.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:53 am

Trump got up early today and target of his rage is...the CDC and Obama. Our toddler President springing into action. I should also take a moment to mention my small town mayor is doing a daily webcast on FB to keep people updated. My mayor is showing far more leadership and competence than the President of the United States. Utterly baffling.

Meanwhile.

https://twitter.com/CaroleMyers/status/ ... 0117949447

U.S. WHO Expert compares the response & conditions of coronavirus spread in countries.

“Our response is much, much worse than almost any other country that's been affected”

He uses "stunning," "fiasco" & "mind-blowing" to describe how bad it is.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:12 am

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1238303395448008704

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:26 am

When I was discussing this with my wife, she mentioned China was doing fine. Numbers are way down.

I reiterated with China having basically locked down the entire geographic area where anyone was sick, forcing everyone inside. They had 4 cities that were "sick" when they did this and it's only now that they're down to low double-digit new infections. Compare that to the US, now with 40+ STATES showing sickness and no plan to lock anything down except for a lot of cancellations, we're not going to come out looking anywhere near as good as China. She didn't have a retort.

I consider my wife to be pretty smart, but she's looking at everything like it's all hyped panic. She doesn't want to listen to the "depressing news" and wishes I'd stop harassing her with it. She has too much faith in our remote geographic location and relatively isolated lifestyle to protect our family from the illness. My concern isn't for our health. I'm fairly certain we're all healthy enough to be in the 80% who don't need hospitalization. My big concern is for what will happen if the economy has to chug through this, and how that will impact us.

I worry that we'll be lucky if we skip out with a million deaths. People who probably would have survived if the administration had taken this as seriously as our next-biggest economic opponent. It makes me wonder if this event will be the point when China passes the US, economically.

I can't see Trump surviving reelection after this. Massive stock hits, likely a huge number of fatalities, lots of flailing industries, no government coordination except in denials. I'd ask for his resignation right now, but putting Pence in charge so we can all hold hands and pray it away only sounds worse.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:35 am

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:26 am When I was discussing this with my wife, she mentioned China was doing fine. Numbers are way down.

I reiterated with China having basically locked down the entire geographic area where anyone was sick, forcing everyone inside. They had 4 cities that were "sick" when they did this and it's only now that they're down to low double-digit new infections. Compare that to the US, now with 40+ STATES showing sickness and no plan to lock anything down except for a lot of cancellations, we're not going to come out looking anywhere near as good as China. She didn't have a retort.

I consider my wife to be pretty smart, but she's looking at everything like it's all hyped panic. She doesn't want to listen to the "depressing news" and wishes I'd stop harassing her with it.

I worry that we'll be lucky if we skip out with a million deaths. People who probably would have survived if the administration had taken this as seriously as our next-biggest economic opponent. It makes me wonder if this event will be the point when China passes the US, economically.

The good thing I'm seeing having insight to cancellations in an amateur sport is that nearly everything is shutting down voluntarily. The people have been informed enough to take the best action we can take collectively which is stop congregating. Unfortunately we also are seeing a lot of panic buying. That means people have piled up in long lines in the stores which probably isn't great. In any case, perhaps we'll as a population help to slow it enough that the worst case doesn't happen but it is going to get bad. There is no stopping that now. It is a matter of how bad.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:54 am

Some good news:

New Coronavirus Test 10 Times Faster Is FDA Approved

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mes-faster

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:13 am

Keep in mind this is massively constrained by testing capacity. Confirmed cases doubling every 3 days.

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1 ... 7125426177

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:57 am

The Trump administration made clear this week that it has no plans to scrap—or, at the very least, delay—a rule change that could strip federal food assistance from over a million people in the United States as the coronavirus spreads across the nation, heightening the need for measures to protect the most vulnerable from the economic fallout.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/uncons ... us-crisis/

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:08 am

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:26 am I consider my wife to be pretty smart, but she's looking at everything like it's all hyped panic. She doesn't want to listen to the "depressing news" and wishes I'd stop harassing her with it. She has too much faith in our remote geographic location and relatively isolated lifestyle to protect our family from the illness. My concern isn't for our health. I'm fairly certain we're all healthy enough to be in the 80% who don't need hospitalization. My big concern is for what will happen if the economy has to chug through this, and how that will impact us.

I wish could get the message out far and wide enough - this issue isn't about self anymore. Similar to vaccinations, this is an issue about community. There are absolutely people that are going to get sick, be inconvenienced and then fully recover with no long term impacts. Currently, we're not overwhelmingly concerned with the 80% of the population that fits this category. Instead, we should be collectively focusing on the people that are 60+ and those that are medically frail with chronic conditions. Again, similar to being vaccinated the choices I make have the almost incomprehensible ability to affect others in the community - people I don't know and might only have a passing interaction with.

The economy? A 401K? No. We should be focused on the people and how this has a potential to rip through a generation and cause significant harm, possibly death. It sounds dramatic and I hate for it to come across that way, but thinking about this as only an individual thing is the core issue right now. "Screw you, I got mine" doesn't work during an infectious disease pandemic.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:14 am

Unfortunately we have sociopaths running the government. Mnuchin is on CNBC and according to the CC he just said that he would fly commercial and most people won't know they are even sick. What idiotic messaging.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:16 am

Instead, we should be collectively focusing on the people that are 60+ and those that are medically frail with chronic conditions.

Not to mention the healthcare workers, as well as anyone with any serious medical condition that is unable to receive proper medical care if (when) this overwhelms the healthcare system like it has in Italy.

Dogstar · Post by **Dogstar** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:17 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:08 am I wish could get the message out far and wide enough - this issue isn't about self anymore. Similar to vaccinations, this is an issue about community.

Although it's from a political campaign, there's already an existing hashtag out there that mostly fits: #NotMeUs

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:34 am

Defiant wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:16 am Not to mention the healthcare workers, as well as anyone with any serious medical condition that is unable to receive proper medical care if (when) this overwhelms the healthcare system like it has in Italy.

Hopefully aggressive measures *now* mean that we won't overwhelm the medical system and the workers. That only happens if we think of others first and it remains to be seen whether or not it's too late.

What's really unfortunate is that if this all somehow works and we managed to "flatten the curve" so medical systems aren't overwhelmed, it's going to immediately cause cries over what the big deal was and it was all pointless. It's insane that the only way for people to really process this is for tens of thousands of people to die and to have medical professionals making horrific bedside decisions.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:44 am

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:08 am
Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:26 am I consider my wife to be pretty smart, but she's looking at everything like it's all hyped panic. She doesn't want to listen to the "depressing news" and wishes I'd stop harassing her with it. She has too much faith in our remote geographic location and relatively isolated lifestyle to protect our family from the illness. My concern isn't for our health. I'm fairly certain we're all healthy enough to be in the 80% who don't need hospitalization. My big concern is for what will happen if the economy has to chug through this, and how that will impact us.
The economy? A 401K? No. We should be focused on the people and how this has a potential to rip through a generation and cause significant harm, possibly death. It sounds dramatic and I hate for it to come across that way, but thinking about this as only an individual thing is the core issue right now. "Screw you, I got mine" doesn't work during an infectious disease pandemic.

Okay, that came across as a really shitty thing (for me to say). I'm certainly concerned about other people and their well being. I was summarizing the end of the conversation I had with my wife, out of context, and in the way I said it it sounds very ... Republican. I apologize.

I was thinking "the economy" as a shorthand way of saying "a lot of jobs, a lot of businesses, a lot of people, a lot of futures" and I worry about how we're all (us) going to recover from that blow. At this point it feels like we can only ride out whatever's going to happen. People will die. I don't intend to write them off and want them to live if they can be saved, but others will still need to live beyond that and life is going to suck for them beyond just losing loved ones. For example, losing my mother to this would be terrible - but losing my job, and thus my home, and inevitably the future we've tried to make for our kids would be crippling to the future of our family beyond the emotional pain of losing a parent. This is going to be a problem a lot of people face in this. That's more what I meant by "the economy".

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 am

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:44 am
Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:08 am
Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:26 am I consider my wife to be pretty smart, but she's looking at everything like it's all hyped panic. She doesn't want to listen to the "depressing news" and wishes I'd stop harassing her with it. She has too much faith in our remote geographic location and relatively isolated lifestyle to protect our family from the illness. My concern isn't for our health. I'm fairly certain we're all healthy enough to be in the 80% who don't need hospitalization. My big concern is for what will happen if the economy has to chug through this, and how that will impact us.
The economy? A 401K? No. We should be focused on the people and how this has a potential to rip through a generation and cause significant harm, possibly death. It sounds dramatic and I hate for it to come across that way, but thinking about this as only an individual thing is the core issue right now. "Screw you, I got mine" doesn't work during an infectious disease pandemic.
Okay, that came across as a really shitty thing (for me to say). I'm certainly concerned about other people and their well being. I was summarizing the end of the conversation I had with my wife, out of context, and in the way I said it it sounds very ... Republican. I apologize.

I was thinking "the economy" as a shorthand way of saying "a lot of jobs, a lot of businesses, a lot of people, a lot of futures" and I worry about how we're all (us) going to recover from that blow. At this point it feels like we can only ride out whatever's going to happen. People will die. I don't intend to write them off and want them to live if they can be saved, but others will still need to live beyond that and life is going to suck for them beyond just losing loved ones. For example, losing my mother to this would be terrible - but losing my job, and thus my home, and inevitably the future we've tried to make for our kids would be crippling to the future of our family beyond the emotional pain of losing a parent. This is going to be a problem a lot of people face in this. That's more what I meant by "the economy".

It is a secondary effect, but I do think this has a real chance of causing a severe global recession, if not an outright depression. Not issue number 1, but itself pretty horrific in and of itself.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:12 am

It's kind of depressing that I'm finding relief in the news that kids seem least affected by this thing. That way when my son inevitably gets it and needs to go to the hospital (medically complex, prone to pneumonia) I'm hopeful that the children's hospital we frequent won't be as overwhelmed as the standard hospitals.