Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

Solid point here.

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/ ... 6437128192

[Skinypupy]

MAGA anti-masker owns the libs by...checks notes...gluing a dick to her mask. Spoilered for NSFW'ness

Spoiler:

https://twitter.com/nathanTbernard/stat ... 6614815744

Hey, whatever gets them to wear one.

[Smoove_B]

I hope that one makes it into a history book somewhere.

I'm sure it will be hitting the news soon enough, but over the weekend, the CDC's website updated guidance to include information confirming what most in public health have been saying since March - that COVID-19 spreads through aerosols and that spending time indoors with poor ventilation is potentially high risk. This works against current, broad recommendations to have people gathering indoors, particularly when mask use isn't required or compliance is problematic (restaurants, bars, schools). The core issue was a debate between various public and private health factions over aerosol sperad vs droplet spread, which I detailed at some point earlier in this thread (little help, Isg?). In short, aerosol transmission (airborne) is much more problematic and concerning. In truth we don't know the primary route, but the theory was both. Anecdotally now after 6+ months, the evidence suggests aerosolized droplets should be a focus of prevention as it seems likely this is the primary way it's spreading, at least indoors.

Well, at some point this morning, that update and guidance information magically disappeared off the CDC's guidance page. I'm sure it's all on the up-and-up and no one from the Trump administration was involved.

[Isgrimnur]

One of these, perhaps?

[Smoove_B]

Awesome. Any or all work.

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

The agency had posted new guidelines suggesting the virus can transmit over a distance larger than six feet and that indoor ventilation is key to protection against its spread. This is a point that many independent experts have also been advancing, and it had appeared that the agency had come around to their point of view.

But the guidelines were removed late this morning because “that does not reflect our current state of knowledge,” a top CDC official said.

This is a developing story and will be updated
..
The CDC shifted its guidelines on Friday, but the change was not widely noticed until a CNN report on Sunday. Where the agency previously warned that the virus mostly spreads through large drops encountered at close range, it now cites “small particles, such as those in aerosols,” as the most common vector.

[malchior]

Oops. Just a little leak - Renfield put it back down in the old memory hole. COVID-19 is in the past, double plus good.

[Zaxxon]

[LawBeefaroni]

I hope that one makes it into a history book somewhere.

I'm sure it will be hitting the news soon enough, but over the weekend, the CDC's website updated guidance to include information confirming what most in public health have been saying since March - that COVID-19 spreads through aerosols and that spending time indoors with poor ventilation is potentially high risk. This works against current, broad recommendations to have people gathering indoors, particularly when mask use isn't required or compliance is problematic (restaurants, bars, schools). The core issue was a debate between various public and private health factions over aerosol sperad vs droplet spread, which I detailed at some point earlier in this thread (little help, Isg?). In short, aerosol transmission (airborne) is much more problematic and concerning. In truth we don't know the primary route, but the theory was both. Anecdotally now after 6+ months, the evidence suggests aerosolized droplets should be a focus of prevention as it seems likely this is the primary way it's spreading, at least indoors.

Well, at some point this morning, that update and guidance information magically disappeared off the CDC's guidance page. I'm sure it's all on the up-and-up and no one from the Trump administration was involved.

Per what I could read on the scroll at the gym, it was a draft that was erroneously posted. At least that's the story.


Amateur hour has turned into amateur olympiad.

[Isgrimnur]

NPR

The U.K.'s COVID-19 numbers are rising fast and could reach new 50,000 cases per day by mid-October, the country's top science adviser announced Monday. Sir Patrick Vallance said his warning is based on current trends that show "the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days."
...
If the U.K.'s rate of new cases doubles four more times, the government health expert said, "you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day."

That, in turn, would likely lead to more than 200 deaths per day by the middle of November, he added.

The figures are a warning, not a prediction, Vallance said, in a briefing hours before U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock was to speak in Parliament.
...
In one week, anyone who has coronavirus symptoms or is otherwise asked to self-isolate will be legally required to do so — or face fines that start at 1,000 pounds (about $1,280).

[LawBeefaroni]

NPR

The U.K.'s COVID-19 numbers are rising fast and could reach new 50,000 cases per day by mid-October, the country's top science adviser announced Monday. Sir Patrick Vallance said his warning is based on current trends that show "the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days."
...
If the U.K.'s rate of new cases doubles four more times, the government health expert said, "you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day."

That, in turn, would likely lead to more than 200 deaths per day by the middle of November, he added.

The figures are a warning, not a prediction, Vallance said, in a briefing hours before U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock was to speak in Parliament.
...
In one week, anyone who has coronavirus symptoms or is otherwise asked to self-isolate will be legally required to do so — or face fines that start at 1,000 pounds (about $1,280).

At 50K per day they have a full 3 and a half years until the entire country has been infected. There will be a vaccine by November, I'm told. All good. Pip pip.

[Jeff V]

At 50K per day they have a full 3 and a half years until the entire country has been infected. There will be a vaccine by November, I'm told. All good. Pip pip.

But if they make good on the fines, it'd set up a nice redistribution of wealth if and when it's over.

[Holman]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1308209927274536961

"It affects virtually nobody," Trump says of the coronavirus, which has now killed 200,000 Americans and counting

(BTW, does anyone know how to link to a single tweet from a thread without getting the one immediately above it as well?)

[pr0ner]

(BTW, does anyone know how to link to a single tweet from a thread without getting the one immediately above it as well?)

There's no way to that I am aware of.

[Defiant]

A member of the Kennedy dynasty who joined Jared Kushner's coronavirus task force spoke to The New Yorker about his time there.

Max Kennedy Jr., a grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, said he was asked to falsify a model to downplay predicted deaths and cast doubt on other, more dire forecasts.

He blew the whistle to Congress earlier this year. "I just couldn't sleep," he told The New Yorker. "I was so distressed and disturbed by what I'd seen."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kennedy-work ... 17126.html

[Isgrimnur]

I'd be more worried about being haunted by The Horseless Headman.

[malchior]

This is what true lawlessness and looting looks like

A $1 billion fund Congress gave the Pentagon in March to build up the country’s supplies of medical equipment has instead been mostly funneled to defense contractors and used to make things such as jet engine parts, body armor and dress uniforms.

The change illustrates how one taxpayer-backed effort to battle the novel coronavirus, which has killed about 200,000 Americans, was instead diverted toward patching up long-standing perceived gaps in military supplies.

The Cares Act, which Congress passed earlier this year, gave the Pentagon money to “prevent, prepare for, and respond to coronavirus.” But a few weeks later, the Defense Department began reshaping how it would award the money in a way that represented a major departure from Congress’s intent.

The payments were made even though U.S. health officials think major funding gaps in pandemic response still remain. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in Senate testimony last week that states desperately need $6 billion to distribute vaccines to Americans early next year. Many U.S. hospitals still face a severe shortage of N95 masks. These are the types of problems that the money was originally intended to address.

[Isgrimnur]

On the plus side, I'm actually a bit less concerned about the Big Ten's return to play after reading this story:

The most important elements of the presentation involved rapid testing, which had seen advances in technology and accessibility since the Big Ten's initial postponement.

"You're catching somebody with a positive before they're even contagious," said Dr. Jeff Mjaanes, Northwestern's head team physician and a member of the Big Ten's medical subcommittee. "That's a huge breakthrough in this. If we can do that on a daily basis, which is what's in our proposal, then we can identify people before they're even infectious, and we can remove them and really maintain the sanctity and the health of the team.

I'm so glad we're using cutting-edge health technology so that we can watch college football.

[ImLawBoy]

On the plus side, I'm actually a bit less concerned about the Big Ten's return to play after reading this story:

The most important elements of the presentation involved rapid testing, which had seen advances in technology and accessibility since the Big Ten's initial postponement.

"You're catching somebody with a positive before they're even contagious," said Dr. Jeff Mjaanes, Northwestern's head team physician and a member of the Big Ten's medical subcommittee. "That's a huge breakthrough in this. If we can do that on a daily basis, which is what's in our proposal, then we can identify people before they're even infectious, and we can remove them and really maintain the sanctity and the health of the team.

I'm so glad we're using cutting-edge health technology so that we can watch college football.

Yes and no. I'm guessing it's easier to use this kind of testing on a closed group than it would be to introduce it to the general public. Is this testing ability taking away from other places where it could be effectively administered? If yes, then that bolsters your point. If no, then it's not really taking testing away from elsewhere.

And let's not forget that there is value in having entertainment, particularly during a pandemic. If that entertainment can be delivered more safely for the players, that's not necessarily a bad thing. (That's not to overlook all the bad things that may be associated with sports during a pandemic, including crowds (although I suspect the Big Ten will be more restrictive than most other leagues) and people gathering to watch games.)

[Isgrimnur]

BBC

Tensions between the US and China came to the fore of the annual UN General Assembly in New York, with US President Donald Trump blaming China for the spread of coronavirus.

He called for China to be held "accountable" for the pandemic.

[gbasden]

On the plus side, I'm actually a bit less concerned about the Big Ten's return to play after reading this story:

The most important elements of the presentation involved rapid testing, which had seen advances in technology and accessibility since the Big Ten's initial postponement.

"You're catching somebody with a positive before they're even contagious," said Dr. Jeff Mjaanes, Northwestern's head team physician and a member of the Big Ten's medical subcommittee. "That's a huge breakthrough in this. If we can do that on a daily basis, which is what's in our proposal, then we can identify people before they're even infectious, and we can remove them and really maintain the sanctity and the health of the team.

I'm so glad we're using cutting-edge health technology so that we can watch college football.

Yes and no. I'm guessing it's easier to use this kind of testing on a closed group than it would be to introduce it to the general public. Is this testing ability taking away from other places where it could be effectively administered? If yes, then that bolsters your point. If no, then it's not really taking testing away from elsewhere.

And let's not forget that there is value in having entertainment, particularly during a pandemic. If that entertainment can be delivered more safely for the players, that's not necessarily a bad thing. (That's not to overlook all the bad things that may be associated with sports during a pandemic, including crowds (although I suspect the Big Ten will be more restrictive than most other leagues) and people gathering to watch games.)

I'm going to say, off the top of my head, that nurses, doctors and police would be a much, much better way to use such tests than a bunch of student athletes providing no actual value during a pandemic.

If we are placing a high value on entertainment above people actively on the front lines, then why not TV shows and movies?

[ImLawBoy]

I'm going to say, off the top of my head, that nurses, doctors and police would be a much, much better way to use such tests than a bunch of student athletes providing no actual value during a pandemic.

Would these tests be used for them if they weren't going to athletes? I haven't heard much about test shortages these days, although I admit to not looking for that information. If nurses, doctors, and police were trying to get these tests but then the Big Ten came in and scooped them all up, that would certainly be a problem. I haven't heard that this is the case, though.

If we are placing a high value on entertainment above people actively on the front lines, then why not TV shows and movies?

I already addressed the "above people actively on the front lines", so I'll address the TV shows and movies here. Once again, do you know that people working TV shows and movies were trying to access these tests only to have the Big Ten cut the line to get the tests first? It's not like Hollywood doesn't have the resources to buy tests. And even if that is the case, one might argue that the exploited college athletes should have first crack at the tests above professional actors and production crews.

[LawBeefaroni]

I'm going to say, off the top of my head, that nurses, doctors and police would be a much, much better way to use such tests than a bunch of student athletes providing no actual value during a pandemic.

Would these tests be used for them if they weren't going to athletes? I haven't heard much about test shortages these days, although I admit to not looking for that information. If nurses, doctors, and police were trying to get these tests but then the Big Ten came in and scooped them all up, that would certainly be a problem. I haven't heard that this is the case, though.

Daily rapid tests? No, no front line workers are getting those. It's not a shortage exactly, it's more a cost and operational issue. You can test a football team and wait 30 minutes for results whole they have breakfast or whatever. You can't test an entire hospital staff on shift change.

The question to ask is if the rest of the college students are getting the same rigorous testing.

[Isgrimnur]

WSJ (Paywalled)

Covid-19 Testing Is Hampered by Shortages of Critical Ingredient
Lack of reagents is forcing health systems to limit who can get tested and end community testing programs

Beckers Hospital Review

Leaders at hospitals across the country have had to cut COVID-19 testing in recent weeks because of a shortage of reagents needed to process tests, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Mark Steadham, CEO of Morris (Ill.) Hospital and Healthcare Centers, told the Journal that his facility can now conduct about a third of the number of tests per week it could in the summer. The facility has only been getting a third, sometimes less, of its allocation of Abbott rapid testing kits due to a reagent shortage.

An Abbott spokesperson told the Journal the company is working to expand its capacity and supply as many tests as possible.

[ImLawBoy]

I'm going to say, off the top of my head, that nurses, doctors and police would be a much, much better way to use such tests than a bunch of student athletes providing no actual value during a pandemic.

Would these tests be used for them if they weren't going to athletes? I haven't heard much about test shortages these days, although I admit to not looking for that information. If nurses, doctors, and police were trying to get these tests but then the Big Ten came in and scooped them all up, that would certainly be a problem. I haven't heard that this is the case, though.

Daily rapid tests? No, no front line workers are getting those. It's not a shortage exactly, it's more a cost and operational issue. You can test a football team and wait 30 minutes for results whole they have breakfast or whatever. You can't test an entire hospital staff on shift change.

The question to ask is if the rest of the college students are getting the same rigorous testing.

Oh, of course they're not. But wouldn't they have similar issues (or even greater) using these types of tests for for thousands of students as for hospital staffs?

Also, since Isg didn't grab all of my post when he pulled this from the NCAA thread in EBG, I think it's worth noting that I also said:

If this is accurate, it means that it's no more dangerous for them to play football than it would be for them to be on campus. Of course, there's always the question of whether they should actually be on campus, but if the rest of the school is there, it's hard to say the football players shouldn't be there.

[ImLawBoy]

WSJ (Paywalled)

Covid-19 Testing Is Hampered by Shortages of Critical Ingredient
Lack of reagents is forcing health systems to limit who can get tested and end community testing programs

Beckers Hospital Review

Leaders at hospitals across the country have had to cut COVID-19 testing in recent weeks because of a shortage of reagents needed to process tests, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Mark Steadham, CEO of Morris (Ill.) Hospital and Healthcare Centers, told the Journal that his facility can now conduct about a third of the number of tests per week it could in the summer. The facility has only been getting a third, sometimes less, of its allocation of Abbott rapid testing kits due to a reagent shortage.

An Abbott spokesperson told the Journal the company is working to expand its capacity and supply as many tests as possible.

Assuming these reagents are the same ones used for the tests the Big Ten is planning, is there any indication that the Big Ten is getting prioritized ahead of the hospitals? (LawBeef says that these tests aren't that useful in a hospital environment, so it's worth questioning whether they're the same tests. It's always possible that they're still useful for a subset of a hospital employees even though they may not be useful for everyone.) If not, it's possible that the Big Ten's plans may not come to fruition if they're not able to overcome this shortage in time. If the Big Ten is getting priority over the hospitals, that's problematic.

[LawBeefaroni]

I'm going to say, off the top of my head, that nurses, doctors and police would be a much, much better way to use such tests than a bunch of student athletes providing no actual value during a pandemic.

Would these tests be used for them if they weren't going to athletes? I haven't heard much about test shortages these days, although I admit to not looking for that information. If nurses, doctors, and police were trying to get these tests but then the Big Ten came in and scooped them all up, that would certainly be a problem. I haven't heard that this is the case, though.

Daily rapid tests? No, no front line workers are getting those. It's not a shortage exactly, it's more a cost and operational issue. You can test a football team and wait 30 minutes for results whole they have breakfast or whatever. You can't test an entire hospital staff on shift change.

The question to ask is if the rest of the college students are getting the same rigorous testing.

Oh, of course they're not. But wouldn't they have similar issues (or even greater) using these types of tests for for thousands of students as for hospital staffs?

Yes, they would. Which raises the question, what makes the football teams so special? Other than the fact that they are an easily tested cohort? Why not a single dorm or the hospital residents? I mean we know answer and it's not without merit but it's uncomfortable.

Also, since Isg didn't grab all of my post when he pulled this from the NCAA thread in EBG, I think it's worth noting that I also said:

If this is accurate, it means that it's no more dangerous for them to play football than it would be for them to be on campus. Of course, there's always the question of whether they should actually be on campus, but if the rest of the school is there, it's hard to say the football players shouldn't be there.

I did see that. It's probably less dangerous because they and everyone around them are tested daily. Not so great for the "regular" students.

[ImLawBoy]

I'm going to say, off the top of my head, that nurses, doctors and police would be a much, much better way to use such tests than a bunch of student athletes providing no actual value during a pandemic.

Would these tests be used for them if they weren't going to athletes? I haven't heard much about test shortages these days, although I admit to not looking for that information. If nurses, doctors, and police were trying to get these tests but then the Big Ten came in and scooped them all up, that would certainly be a problem. I haven't heard that this is the case, though.

Daily rapid tests? No, no front line workers are getting those. It's not a shortage exactly, it's more a cost and operational issue. You can test a football team and wait 30 minutes for results whole they have breakfast or whatever. You can't test an entire hospital staff on shift change.

The question to ask is if the rest of the college students are getting the same rigorous testing.

Oh, of course they're not. But wouldn't they have similar issues (or even greater) using these types of tests for for thousands of students as for hospital staffs?

Yes, they would. Which raises the question, what makes the football teams so special? Other than the fact that they are an easily tested cohort? Why not a single dorm or the hospital residents? I mean we know answer and it's not without merit but it's uncomfortable.

I think the "easily tested cohort" is part of it, but yeah. It's about football revenue. (BTW, if you were going to test a single dorm at Michigan, you'd obviously choose Markley, because the most important students at the University of Michigan live in Markley.)

Also, since Isg didn't grab all of my post when he pulled this from the NCAA thread in EBG, I think it's worth noting that I also said:

If this is accurate, it means that it's no more dangerous for them to play football than it would be for them to be on campus. Of course, there's always the question of whether they should actually be on campus, but if the rest of the school is there, it's hard to say the football players shouldn't be there.

I did see that. It's probably less dangerous because they and everyone around them are tested daily. Not so great for the "regular" students.

Hey, at least it's not making it any more dangerous for the "regular" students.

[Holman]

Right now I have forty students in a hybrid format (once/week face-to-face classes, the rest on Zoom).

Five of them have been out for two-week quarantine periods because someone on their hall got a positive Covid diagnosis. I know this because the university sends a very specific message about the fact of the (anonymous) hallmate's diagnosis and the period until return.

For three other students, however, the university has sent a different (identical) email:

The Success Center has received notification that [student name] has been/will be away from in-person classes for medical reasons. The student will be able to attend classes remotely at this time but that is subject to change.

I assume this means that the student herself has tested positive for Covid but that (because privacy) they can't tell me directly.

Three out of forty, though.

[Paingod]

A CEO from a Kentucky hospital is asking people to please wear masks.

For some reason, a message from a CEO resonates poorly. My cynical side looks at this and says "Of course the CEO wants you to wear a mask. All those sick and dying people are clogging up the hospital and aren't as profitable as elective procedures and other care."

[LawBeefaroni]

A CEO from a Kentucky hospital is asking people to please wear masks.

For some reason, a message from a CEO resonates poorly. My cynical side looks at this and says "Of course the CEO wants you to wear a mask. All those sick and dying people are clogging up the hospital and aren't as profitable as elective procedures and other care."

Actually, hospitals really do want to prevent preventable admissions. No one wants anyone dying on their watch but it's more than just that. Having overcrowded/capacity is also bad for the other less preventable admissions because it pulls resources.

Hospital staffs have been running at burnout levels for months. At places like King's, you have clinical staff looking like caffeinated zombie husks. All because people aren't taking shit seriously, until they get it and then they're all in on appropriate care.


I get the skepticism but I figure he's sincere and not just after a better bottom line.

[Smoove_B]

I'm glad to see that if I ever get to meet Dr. Fauci, we'll have a point of agreement to build a conversation from.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/stat ... 9417954305

Dr. Fauci has had just about enough of Rand Paul, basically calls him a moron.

"This happens with Senator Rand all the time... If you believe 22% is herd immunity, I believe you’re alone in that.

The idea that he's trying to out-science Dr. Fauci in this is...something.

[stessier]

The idea that he could come up with the phrase "I believe you are alone in that" while clearly fuming is incredible. Well done, sir. Well done.

[malchior]

I'm glad to see that if I ever get to meet Dr. Fauci, we'll have a point of agreement to build a conversation from.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/stat ... 9417954305

Dr. Fauci has had just about enough of Rand Paul, basically calls him a moron.

"This happens with Senator Rand all the time... If you believe 22% is herd immunity, I believe you’re alone in that.

The idea that he's trying to out-science Dr. Fauci in this is...something.

The end of the clip is the best part. Fauci was not having it and he was essentially right up on the line of decorum there without stepping over. Very impressive.

[LawBeefaroni]

Calls him "Senator Rand" to protect the Paul name.

[Smoove_B]

Also, as a reminder:

https://twitter.com/UNMC_DrKhan/status/ ... 0772579329

The official #COVID19 milestone of 200,000 deaths was weeks ago. As mentioned previously the reported count of deaths is ~25% off from the true estimated excess deaths. The real toll of preventable current deaths is quarter of a million. 250,000.

Or, as Trump referred to them, "virtually nobody".

[Isgrimnur]

Yeah, it's only like 40% of the population of Wyoming.

[hepcat]

I'm glad to see that if I ever get to meet Dr. Fauci, we'll have a point of agreement to build a conversation from.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/stat ... 9417954305

Dr. Fauci has had just about enough of Rand Paul, basically calls him a moron.

"This happens with Senator Rand all the time... If you believe 22% is herd immunity, I believe you’re alone in that.

The idea that he's trying to out-science Dr. Fauci in this is...something.

This looks like a job for



The Neighbor

He's not the hero we want...but he's the hero we ne.....wait...no, we want him, we want him.

[LawBeefaroni]

Or, as Trump referred to them, "virtually nobody".

To be fair, he meant to say, "virtual nobodies."

[Holman]

Missouri Governor Mike Parson, an ardent anti-masker, has tested positive for Covid along with his wife.