Octopus Overlords

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 am It is a secondary effect, but I do think this has a real chance of causing a severe global recession, if not an outright depression. Not issue number 1, but itself pretty horrific in and of itself.

The market has signaled a major recession. Depression isn't out yet. We'll see but the Fed action to inject liquidity seems to have worked for now to prevent a financial crisis. Jobs that can telework (like mine) will continue on at reduced efficiency. Some industries will need help. Some people will need financial support. For many Americans, it really comes down to what kind and size of stimulus package they pass. It isn't going to be great long-term for awhile but if this is a couple of months this will be manageable.

I'm mainly worried about my parents right now. They're 85 and 82, and they're not in *bad* health per se, but neither is exactly vigorous for their ages either. Given what I've seen if either or both get it, I would assume there would be a 10% - 20%ish chance of them dying, which is hard to contemplate.

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 am It is a secondary effect, but I do think this has a real chance of causing a severe global recession, if not an outright depression. Not issue number 1, but itself pretty horrific in and of itself.

The market has signaled a major recession. Depression isn't out yet. We'll see but the Fed action to inject liquidity seems to have worked for now to prevent a financial crisis. Jobs that can telework (like mine) will continue on at reduced efficiency. Some industries will need help. Some people will need financial support. For many Americans, it really comes down to what kind and size of stimulus package they pass. It isn't going to be great long-term for awhile but if this is a couple of months this will be manageable.

Obviously this is a secondary factor versus the current leadership, but it's not great that Sanders is out attacking the Fed action either.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 am It is a secondary effect, but I do think this has a real chance of causing a severe global recession, if not an outright depression. Not issue number 1, but itself pretty horrific in and of itself.

The market has signaled a major recession. Depression isn't out yet. We'll see but the Fed action to inject liquidity seems to have worked for now to prevent a financial crisis. Jobs that can telework (like mine) will continue on at reduced efficiency. Some industries will need help. Some people will need financial support. For many Americans, it really comes down to what kind and size of stimulus package they pass. It isn't going to be great long-term for awhile but if this is a couple of months this will be manageable.

Obviously this is a secondary factor versus the current leadership, but it's not great that Sanders is out attacking the Fed action either.

Totally. The near-total absence of ethics driven leadership in this nation is appalling. Sander's making some point about M4A viability was *NOT HELPFUL*. It wasn't ethical at all on top. This isn't the time. It also doesn't make much sense. They didn't print 1.5T that can just be spent in the wide economy. They are essentially lending money to inject liquidity in the market because liquidity providers don't want to take the risk themselves. Biden sounded reasonable but it looked like he was taking political advantage too. But to be totally fair, it is a minor and reasonable sin in the big picture IMO.

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 am It is a secondary effect, but I do think this has a real chance of causing a severe global recession, if not an outright depression. Not issue number 1, but itself pretty horrific in and of itself.

The market has signaled a major recession. Depression isn't out yet. We'll see but the Fed action to inject liquidity seems to have worked for now to prevent a financial crisis. Jobs that can telework (like mine) will continue on at reduced efficiency. Some industries will need help. Some people will need financial support. For many Americans, it really comes down to what kind and size of stimulus package they pass. It isn't going to be great long-term for awhile but if this is a couple of months this will be manageable.

Obviously this is a secondary factor versus the current leadership, but it's not great that Sanders is out attacking the Fed action either.

Totally. The near-total absence of ethics driven leadership in this nation is appalling. Sander's making some point about M4A viability was *NOT HELPFUL*. It wasn't ethical at all on top. This isn't the time. It also doesn't make much sense. They didn't print 1.5T that can just be spent in the wide economy. They are essentially lending money to inject liquidity in the market because liquidity providers don't want to take the risk themselves. Biden sounded reasonable but it looked like he was taking political advantage too. But to be totally fair, it is a minor and reasonable sin in the big picture IMO.

What did Biden say?

I'm not inclined to knock candidates for trying to score political points during a political campaign, but they do need to be careful.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:53 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 am

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 am It is a secondary effect, but I do think this has a real chance of causing a severe global recession, if not an outright depression. Not issue number 1, but itself pretty horrific in and of itself.

The market has signaled a major recession. Depression isn't out yet. We'll see but the Fed action to inject liquidity seems to have worked for now to prevent a financial crisis. Jobs that can telework (like mine) will continue on at reduced efficiency. Some industries will need help. Some people will need financial support. For many Americans, it really comes down to what kind and size of stimulus package they pass. It isn't going to be great long-term for awhile but if this is a couple of months this will be manageable.

Obviously this is a secondary factor versus the current leadership, but it's not great that Sanders is out attacking the Fed action either.

Totally. The near-total absence of ethics driven leadership in this nation is appalling. Sander's making some point about M4A viability was *NOT HELPFUL*. It wasn't ethical at all on top. This isn't the time. It also doesn't make much sense. They didn't print 1.5T that can just be spent in the wide economy. They are essentially lending money to inject liquidity in the market because liquidity providers don't want to take the risk themselves. Biden sounded reasonable but it looked like he was taking political advantage too. But to be totally fair, it is a minor and reasonable sin in the big picture IMO.

What did Biden say?

I'm not inclined to knock candidates for trying to score political points during a political campaign, but they do need to be careful.

He got on tv and announced he had a plan to address the COVID-19 crisis and encouraged Trump to pick it up. Like I said it was a little opportunistic but it was constructive. Of course, he knew it was going to be ignored. Like I said a bit of a minor sin and it isn't like anyone but folks on the right would ding him for it.

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:44 am [Okay, that came across as a really shitty thing (for me to say). I'm certainly concerned about other people and their well being. I was summarizing the end of the conversation I had with my wife, out of context, and in the way I said it it sounds very ... Republican. I apologize.

No worries; I didn't take it as such. I'm burning out - been jacked into info stream pretty much 16+ hours a day. Between general news and the stuff I'm being emailed professionally, things are whipping up. Again, still not panic time (despite what supermarkets would have you believe when you visit), but definitely a time for people to re-frame their thinking and come to grips with what's about to likely happen. President TruckNutz isn't helping either, saying things that are downright dangerous and undermining public health at every turn - verbally and administratively.

Regarding "the economy" (waves hands around), it's absolutely going to be impacted - nationally and globally. How exactly is anyone's guess. Sure there are theories, but until we're collectively through all this and can emerge on the other side I really don't think it's worth spending too much time thinking about what things look like Q3/Q4 2020. I do think short-term economic issues need to be addressed - mainly how we support hourly workers and those without paid-time off. I genuinely believe our entire society is now under the microscope and we're about to see exactly how shitty it is for more than a few people in their day-to-day existence. I'm not worried about money, food or shelter. The same can't be said for a significant number of people right now and for them, I fear it's going to get unbearable in the coming weeks.

EDIT: Case in point:

Despite mounting pleas from California and other states, the Trump administration isn’t allowing states to use Medicaid more freely to respond to the coronavirus crisis by expanding medical services.

In previous emergencies, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Hurricane Katrina and the H1N1 flu outbreak, both Republican and Democratic administrations loosened Medicaid rules to empower states to meet surging needs.

But months into the current global disease outbreak, the White House and senior federal health officials haven’t taken the necessary steps to give states simple pathways to fully leverage the mammoth safety net program to prevent a wider epidemic.

Cruelty is the point.

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:26 am I can't see Trump surviving reelection after this. Massive stock hits, likely a huge number of fatalities, lots of flailing industries, no government coordination except in denials. I'd ask for his resignation right now, but putting Pence in charge so we can all hold hands and pray it away only sounds worse.

People will blame Democrats and foreigners.

I did read one opinion that social distancing, if it lasts into the fall, will help Biden. Trump's rallies are rabid affairs that fire up his base and generate free media coverage; he's at his best when he's raving to his believers and lying outrageously. Biden has trouble attracting crowds, and the only ones who stay awake til the end are those hoping for an amusing gaffe. But Biden can read a teleprompter without sounding like a robot. Scripted events with no live audience favor him.

In case you want an uplifting read for Friday - America is Broken:

What we are seeing right now is the collapse of civic authority and public trust at what is only the beginning of a protracted crisis. In the face of an onrushing pandemic, the United States has exhibited a near-total evacuation of responsibility and political leadership — a sociopathic disinterest in performing the basic function of government, which is to protect its citizens.

Things will get worse from here. According to a survey of epidemiologists released yesterday, the coronavirus outbreak probably won’t peak before May. That doesn’t mean it will be over by May, of course, but that it will be getting worse and worse and worse over the next two months, and for much of that time, presumably, exponentially worse. And so the suspension of the NBA season and Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson’s announcement that they are sick with COVID-19 will seem, in relatively short order, like quite small potatoes. And for all of that time, the country’s response will be commanded and controlled by Donald Trump.

And:

This is not how a functioning society responds to a crisis. And while it is important to keep in mind that even the worst-case scenarios for COVID-19 stop far short of producing total social and political disarray — producing merely widespread death and suffering and an almost incalculable burden on our already stretched-thin medical capacity — it is nevertheless astonishing, and horrifying, just how quickly we have arrived here, almost totally distrustful of the civic institutions we expect to protect us.

Trump is holding another press conference about the virus at 3pm Eastern.

Ok, it's 11:11 am and I think I'm done for today as Jared Kushner turns to Facebook for advice:

Just before midnight Wednesday, a doctor asked a group of fellow emergency room physicians on Facebook how they would combat the escalating coronavirus outbreak.

“I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House,” Kurt Kloss wrote in his post.

The next morning, after hundreds of doctors responded, Kloss explained why he sought the suggestions: Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, had asked him for recommendations.

Kloss, whose daughter is married to Kushner’s brother, sent Kushner 12 recommendations Thursday morning.

The Facebook crowd-sourcing exercise showed how Trump‘s team is scrambling for solutions to confront the outbreak after weeks of criticism for the administration's sluggish response, a shortage of tests and the president’s own rhetoric downplaying the pandemic.

Another press conference at 3 PM. I'm sure this will be helpful. What do you think he has got queued up? Bashing the CDC? Attacking Obama? Rambling?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 8135945216

Kraken wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:07 am

Paingod wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:26 am I can't see Trump surviving reelection after this. Massive stock hits, likely a huge number of fatalities, lots of flailing industries, no government coordination except in denials. I'd ask for his resignation right now, but putting Pence in charge so we can all hold hands and pray it away only sounds worse.

People will blame Democrats and foreigners.

Without minimizing the role of xenophobia, that's not how elections work. If the economy sucks in November, voters will blame the party in power. And there's a lot of evidence that voters define "the party in power" as the party that currently holds the presidency.

The irony is that a vigorous and successful coronavirus response is the one thing that could save Trump at this point, but he's too dumb to realize that.

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Another press conference at 3 PM. I'm sure this will be helpful. What do you think he has got queued up? Bashing the CDC? Attacking Obama? Rambling?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 8135945216

Trump tends to think that more Trump communications are the answer to any problem.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:12 am Ok, it's 11:11 am and I think I'm done for today as Jared Kushner turns to Facebook for advice:

Just before midnight Wednesday, a doctor asked a group of fellow emergency room physicians on Facebook how they would combat the escalating coronavirus outbreak.

“I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House,” Kurt Kloss wrote in his post.

The next morning, after hundreds of doctors responded, Kloss explained why he sought the suggestions: Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, had asked him for recommendations.

Kloss, whose daughter is married to Kushner’s brother, sent Kushner 12 recommendations Thursday morning.

The Facebook crowd-sourcing exercise showed how Trump‘s team is scrambling for solutions to confront the outbreak after weeks of criticism for the administration's sluggish response, a shortage of tests and the president’s own rhetoric downplaying the pandemic.

I'd post the "Top Men" meme, but like you, I'm just done. If this isn't the dumbest timeline, it's in heavy competition for that spot.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:19 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Another press conference at 3 PM. I'm sure this will be helpful. What do you think he has got queued up? Bashing the CDC? Attacking Obama? Rambling?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 8135945216

Trump tends to think that more Trump communications are the answer to any problem.

Exclamation points, also.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 amAnd:

This is not how a functioning society responds to a crisis. And while it is important to keep in mind that even the worst-case scenarios for COVID-19 stop far short of producing total social and political disarray — producing merely widespread death and suffering and an almost incalculable burden on our already stretched-thin medical capacity — it is nevertheless astonishing, and horrifying, just how quickly we have arrived here, almost totally distrustful of the civic institutions we expect to protect us.

This is the least shocking thing to me. We have been seeing the gridlock in the face of other minor crises for decades. Budgets were being negotiated by people pointing a gun at everyone's heads. We had an openly villainous Senate Majority leader exploiting every gap in the system he could find to consolidate power. We had open racism and Nazi's marching in the streets and the President dog whistled it. We've seen unimaginable cruelty and a cast of D list people willing to step in as long as they wielded power. This was always the risk. It is just a matter of how bad it'll get.

The business community stepped up to help in some pockets of the economy. Maybe they'll help. We don't know but again anyone with sense knew that Trump was a potentially existential risk to the nation. We don't know how this will play out. Oddly I think this will be a wake up call that government matters. That the GOP is a national security risk. That things will have to change. If that isn't the lesson here then we deserve to fall.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:12 am Ok, it's 11:11 am and I think I'm done for today as Jared Kushner turns to Facebook for advice:

Just before midnight Wednesday, a doctor asked a group of fellow emergency room physicians on Facebook how they would combat the escalating coronavirus outbreak.

“I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House,” Kurt Kloss wrote in his post.

The next morning, after hundreds of doctors responded, Kloss explained why he sought the suggestions: Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, had asked him for recommendations.

Kloss, whose daughter is married to Kushner’s brother, sent Kushner 12 recommendations Thursday morning.

The Facebook crowd-sourcing exercise showed how Trump‘s team is scrambling for solutions to confront the outbreak after weeks of criticism for the administration's sluggish response, a shortage of tests and the president’s own rhetoric downplaying the pandemic.

I think "amateur hour" is the term I've been using since day one. It shows in everything they do. But c'est la vie, right?

This same kinda thing happens around here if the weather folks mention snow.

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm If only there was a way to find out. If only there was a way to determine viral levels nationwide. I wonder how we could do that?

Everyone pee in a cup and ship it to the White House?

morlac wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:35 am

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm If only there was a way to find out. If only there was a way to determine viral levels nationwide. I wonder how we could do that?

Everyone pee in a cup and ship it to the White House?

Again?

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Another press conference at 3 PM. I

I'm kinda surprised he's not doing it at 4:01pm, right after the markets close.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:51 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Another press conference at 3 PM. I

I'm kinda surprised he's not doing it at 4:01pm, right after the markets close.

Maybe he's hoping his inspirational wisdom will rally the markets in the last half hour.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:51 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Another press conference at 3 PM. I

I'm kinda surprised he's not doing it at 4:01pm, right after the markets close.

You're not thinking like Trump. Once he clarifies a few things and Trumps everything up, the markets will realize that everything is amazing and the Dow will hit 50,000 by close.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:12 am Ok, it's 11:11 am and I think I'm done for today as Jared Kushner turns to Facebook for advice:

Just before midnight Wednesday, a doctor asked a group of fellow emergency room physicians on Facebook how they would combat the escalating coronavirus outbreak.

“I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House,” Kurt Kloss wrote in his post.

The next morning, after hundreds of doctors responded, Kloss explained why he sought the suggestions: Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, had asked him for recommendations.

Kloss, whose daughter is married to Kushner’s brother, sent Kushner 12 recommendations Thursday morning.

The Facebook crowd-sourcing exercise showed how Trump‘s team is scrambling for solutions to confront the outbreak after weeks of criticism for the administration's sluggish response, a shortage of tests and the president’s own rhetoric downplaying the pandemic.

Everyone relax. Jared's brother's father-in-law will save us.

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Another press conference at 3 PM. I'm sure this will be helpful. What do you think he has got queued up? Bashing the CDC? Attacking Obama? Rambling?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 8135945216

He'll be declaring a national emergency.

What an extraordinary step for a Democrat's hoax!

About time.

He is blaming the CDC problems on Obama from over 3 years ago.

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pmAbout time.

Agreed but the cynic in me thinks that someone whispered in his ear you have $42B to spend. Spend it...well...

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:34 pm

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pmAbout time.

Agreed but the cynic in me thinks that someone whispered in his ear you have $42B to spend. Spend it...well...

The wall! The wall will save us!

Daehawk wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:26 pm He is blaming the CDC problems on Obama from over 3 years ago.

It makes sense. After all Obama is black.

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:34 pm

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pmAbout time.

Agreed but the cynic in me thinks that someone whispered in his ear you have $42B to spend. Spend it...well...

Even a blind pig yada yada yada.

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:35 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:34 pm

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pmAbout time.

Agreed but the cynic in me thinks that someone whispered in his ear you have $42B to spend. Spend it...well...

The wall! The wall will save us!

Jared was all like...want to be a *real* billionaire?

When I saw Trump say the ywere going to spend billions of this in my mind I saw him stomping the ground and i na pouting kid voice saying "I wanna bwuild a wall with thwat money"

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:51 am

malchior wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Another press conference at 3 PM. I

I'm kinda surprised he's not doing it at 4:01pm, right after the markets close.

That was my initial thought too, unless he's going to announce some hand-out that provides a little bounce.

I'm eagerly awaiting his next rally where he starts tossing rolls of toilet paper into the crowd.

Interesting interactive graph in this article, that allows you to choose when, and how aggressive, interventions are made to increase social distancing can affect the peak infections, and the death toll:


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ponse.html

Small potatoes at this point but they did officially cancel my daughter's dc trip. I mean it's not like anything would be open if they went anyway. The kicker is that they said they might not be able to get our money back. We already paid 300+ for the trip. Sigh.... I have a hard time being mad at the school for this though and it is what it is.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:27 pm https://www.google.com/search?q=school+ ... chool+trip

So you're saying my chances aren't good? At least we didn't make the final payment. It sucks, but what are you going to do? At least it's only a few hundred dollars and not thousands.