Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Zarathud]

We plan on Trick or Yeeting. Kids will have candy thrown on the lawn, dispersing the vectors of disease back into the wild.

[Blackhawk]

I still wonder what the fallout's going to be if this starts spreading through the Senate and a number of Senators fall over dead. Or a dozen or so random members of the House.

[Unagi]

Wow

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/stat ... 8173404161

Is Conway back with Lincoln Project?

... cause the song says: Don’t cry for my WH Staffers

But that quote could be George talking of Kellyanne ?

[Skinypupy]

We plan on Trick or Yeeting. Kids will have candy thrown on the lawn, dispersing the vectors of disease back into the wild.

There's a fully masked neighborhood trunk or treat that we'll be doing the night before Halloween. That felt like the best compromise for the kids.

On the night of, I'm pretty sure we're doing "Stick or Treating". Mrs. Skinypupy found it online somewhere. Basically just tape candy to sticks and put it all over the yard. Kids can grab whatever they want without having to come to the door. Seemed like a good idea.

Our trick or treaters have gone from the hundreds down to 20 or so the last few years anyways, so I'm not too worried about it

[LawBeefaroni]

Turns out the teacher has a daughter who was in quarantine last week because someone in her elementary school class had tested positive. The daughter never displayed any symptoms, and they were told that she could only get tested if she was showing symptoms. So they have no idea if the daughter had it, if the teacher got it from her or from somewhere else, or when or where the teacher may have been infected.

The teacher apparently called the state health dept tonight and was told that only those who she has come in contact with since her diagnosis (I.e. earlier today) are required to quarantine. The state said that the kids from last week should watch for symptoms, but do not need to quarantine. They also will not test those kids, unless they start showing symptoms.

Christ, no wonder this thing is so out of control.

In a few weeks, those little germ bags are going to don disguises and ring doorbells. Don't open your door unless there's a fan behind you blowing out and you have 10' tongs. (edit) And candy, because the tricks could be fatal.

We generally don't get many Trick-or-treaters, being on a main arterial street surrounded by much more favorable quiet neighborhood streets. But we get a ton of foot traffic so we may spend Saturday, 10/31 on the deck lowering treats to passersby via pulley system. Thinking a cooler of beer, a grill, music...

[hepcat]

Someone should put up this 12 foot tall Mitch McConnell ornament for Halloween.

[Skinypupy]

This seems to be making the rounds today: The Great Barrington Declaration

As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

Seems to me that this is simply a nicer version of “Throw the doors wide open. If they die, they die" with a bunch of Stanford, Oxford, and Harvard doctor's signatures attached.

I mean, I appreciate that they at least threw in the “everyone should probably wash their hands” caveat, but there is nothing in there that even resembles “Focused Protection”. It's basically just “We’re gonna do what we want. If you’re sick or old…sucks for you. We don’t much care if you die because the rest of us need football and shopping.”

The part about "COVID isn't dangerous for kids" seems to be completely dismissing the potential for a) any long-term effects from COVID-19 and b) the spread from kids (who are largely unharmed) to vulnerable adults. To me, that feels wildly irresponsible from a group of medical professionals.

[YellowKing]

For trick or treating this year we made individual ziploc bag assortments of candy and will have those available on a table for the kids to just grab and go. That way you don't have kids grabbing out of the same bowl, I'm not touching their candy, and since we've already created the bags and sealed them they should be good and sterile by Halloween night.

I think the real danger for trick or treating is not really the giving out candy part as much as it is having large groups of kids and adults walking around together, but whatever peace of mind I can supply I'll do it.

[Little Raven]

Seems to me that this is simply a nicer version of “Throw the doors wide open. If they die, they die" with a bunch of Stanford, Oxford, and Harvard doctor's signatures attached.

I read it as "Our current course is unsustainable. The cure cannot be allowed to be worse than the disease." But I might be reading more charitably than you.

But given what you are currently going through with your daughter, I think I see where these doctors are coming from. I'm not qualified enough to say that they're right, but I'm not certain they're wrong either. There are no resources to handle this the way Smoove would, and no political will to make those resources available. Meanwhile, we have shut down huge segments of our economic and education sectors, with the costs of those decisions falling disproportionately on the least well off members of our society, with very little progress is successfully containing the virus.

It's a wicked problem.

[Smoove_B]

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal

I guess I missed the change in classification where we could identify which people were and which were not vulnerable. Do they mean "high risk" here, because if you're a human being, you're vulnerable to this virus. But yeah, this is a verbalization of the general frustration with everything - and an acknowledgement that it doesn't need to be this way. We have all the tools and as I've been saying for months now (in concert with my peers) - on any given day, we're 4-6 weeks away from squashing the virus down to manageable levels. But instead the patchwork response and mitigation techniques along with the political divide making this a referendum on freedom are going to continue to allow the virus to circulate indefinitely in the U.S. until there's a change at the federal level. Collectively this is absolutely unsustainable, but the answer isn't to just throw open the doors.

[hentzau]

Yeah, without appropriate testing everything goes out the window. I'm surprised at your State's advice - if she tested positive today it's not like a switch magically flipped and she wasn't infectious before the test results were delivered. Right now someone should be in touch with that teacher and running down all her contacts for the last 14 days - including her current close contacts (i.e. people she's living with).

Watching for symptoms is good advice, but if you're going about your business and not limiting contact, the cycle never breaks as invariably there are asymptomatic spreaders and/or infectious people spreading disease before they develop visible symptoms.

Flat out, if you've had contact with someone that's is a confirmed case, you should be self-quarantining until you're out of the danger window.

When people ask me why I haven't been in a supermarket or restaurant since March, and why I've been avoiding crowds and public spaces like it's my job, this is why.

I was at a small outdoor event on Saturday, about 20 people and some pets, we were together for about 20 minutes, I was (fairly) distanced from people, and wore a mask. Someone at that event has since come forward as having Covid-19. And some people weren't wearing masks.

I'm now in a position where I need to quarantine for 2 weeks. And I have scout events coming up like a court of honor this weekend and a camping trip next weekend.

I am going to go get tested today at a drive up facility, and probably again next week. But man, horrible timing as I'm trying to get my scouting program started up again.

[malchior]

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal

I guess I missed the change in classification where we could identify which people were and which were not vulnerable. Do they mean "high risk" here, because if you're a human being, you're vulnerable to this virus. But yeah, this is a verbalization of the general frustration with everything - and an acknowledgement that it doesn't need to be this way. We have all the tools and as I've been saying for months now (in concert with my peers) - on any given day, we're 4-6 weeks away from squashing the virus down to manageable levels. But instead the patchwork response and mitigation techniques along with the political divide making this a referendum on freedom are going to continue to allow the virus to circulate indefinitely in the U.S. until there's a change at the federal level. Collectively this is absolutely unsustainable, but the answer isn't to just throw open the doors.

Right. Like the idea there aren't the resources. This was a *complete* failure of leadership - not resources. We have millions of unemployed people sitting in their homes hoping for a paycheck if we need contact tracers. Ready to work with training. We could have put reasonable restrictions in place to tamp down the virus. Instead we are throwing the doors open recklessly. We could have provided funding to small businesses like Europe did.

It also wasn't the lack of political will. There is political antipathy. It is a huge difference. Our national leadership decided that money cared more than lives. And I'm not looking for utopia. A balance is appropriate but they didn't even attempt balance. They allowed the virus to spread unchecked across this nation and even into the national leadership. They declared victory right after Pearl Harbor. It was a lack of imagination, basic goodwill, and leadership here. It is only unsustainable because of Trump. It was solvable if the nation was governable. But it isn't.

[YellowKing]

Their policy was based on the general current Republican philosophy of "if we don't acknowledge it, it doesn't exist." That doesn't extend just to Covid, it also extends to climate change, racism, people who can't afford healthcare, white supremacist terrorist groups, etc.

It's one of the most childish philosophies I can possibly imagine. It's akin to a 2-year old playing peek-a-boo and thinking he's invisible when he covers his eyes.

[Jaymon]

We are opting out of public halloween. no external decorations, and no candy giving. Our house will be dark, to not invite any treaters.

inside we will do a halloween hunt, like an easter egg hunt, but spookier? and then maybe watch a movie.

I can't control what everybody else does, I can only control what we do, and we are staying safe.

[malchior]

Their policy was based on the general current Republican philosophy of "if we don't acknowledge it, it doesn't exist." That doesn't extend just to Covid, it also extends to climate change, racism, people who can't afford healthcare, white supremacist terrorist groups, etc.

It's one of the most childish philosophies I can possibly imagine. It's akin to a 2-year old playing peek-a-boo and thinking he's invisible when he covers his eyes.

Right and they want to minimize the role of government - even when government is the most appropriate actor. There is no free market solution that solves for a pandemic as much as zealots want to think it.

[wonderpug]

inside we will do a halloween hunt, like an easter egg hunt, but spookier? and then maybe watch a movie.

During normal times our kids' elementary school does a sort of Halloween carnival with simple games to play that are variations on beanbag tosses, the Price is Right punch board, musical chairs, etc. We're thinking of setting up some sort of mini version of that for our kids in our house on Halloween.

Also kind of thinking of letting them go trick or treating at various doors in our house, but I'm not sure if that would be fun for them or just subtly depressing.

[LawBeefaroni]

Right. Like the idea there aren't the resources. This was a *complete* failure of leadership - not resources. We have millions of unemployed people sitting in their homes hoping for a paycheck if we need contact tracers. Ready to work with training. We could have put reasonable restrictions in place to tamp down the virus. Instead we are throwing the doors open recklessly. We have business leaders packing offices because they can't manage their people.

Airlines are looking at a $25B government bailout months after they refused government loans. They want the free money. Why? 38K jobs on the line. That's a cost of $650k per job saved. That would easily fund 10 restaurant jobs.

Of course that money could also fund contract tracers but a contract tracing program is a lot of work and won't prop up the markets and doesn't smell like Freedom. And when a Congressperson can't get a direct flight from Savannah to DC, that $20M daily cash burn at an airline suddenly looks like a good thing to pour government cheese into.

[Smoove_B]

I am going to go get tested today at a drive up facility, and probably again next week. But man, horrible timing as I'm trying to get my scouting program started up again.

If you can push off testing one more day (so you're ~5 days out from exposure) that would be ideal (unless the test sensitivity indicates earlier testing is possible). That's my non-medical advice, but based on guidance I have locally. Not that you need my approval, but at least know you're doing the right thing. It sounds low-risk overall for you, but you can at least appreciate just how quickly now it is out of hand as everyone involved should now be thinking about everything they've done and all the people they've been in contact with since this event. That's why having all these additional protocols in place (space, masking, limiting close-contact, etc...) are so important as they're going lower risk for everyone when these inevitable contacts occur.

[$iljanus]

We are opting out of public halloween. no external decorations, and no candy giving. Our house will be dark, to not invite any treaters.

inside we will do a halloween hunt, like an easter egg hunt, but spookier? and then maybe watch a movie.

I can't control what everybody else does, I can only control what we do, and we are staying safe.

Our house hasn’t been visited ever since we moved in and it’s not like we didn’t buy candy and lit up the porch. But even if we were a popular stop for trick or treating we would definitely not be handing out candy. It seems pretty silly during a pandemic and it’s not a life and death situation.

[Paingod]

COVID this year has cancelled our plans to head to the city (and spend the ritualized night of candy hoarding with my mother while the kids went out). Instead we'll be simply buying a few bags of candy and hiding them around the house and property for the kids to hunt for. Its a lot less fun than dressing up, but it's still a good time.

I haven't been in a store since Trump reinforced COVID as a weak nothingburger for his cultists. It should be interesting to see how the mask ratio shifts during the next grocery run. I've been seeing 95-98% compliance when we go out.

[Smoove_B]

So..how are we looking nationally, headed into our second full week of October?

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/13 ... 5790195712

Not a pretty picture 41 states are in "uncontrolled spread" or "trending poorly". New states adding to the 3rd US surge beyond the Midwest

[Isgrimnur]

https://twitter.com/TexasDSHS/status/13 ... 3571399680

[noxiousdog]

We pretty regularly dine outside. In doing so, we do have to pass through the restaurant proper.

Last night was packed. Plan on another huge Texas spike.

[LordMortis]

COVID this year has cancelled our plans to head to the city (and spend the ritualized night of candy hoarding with my mother while the kids went out). Instead we'll be simply buying a few bags of candy and hiding them around the house and property for the kids to hunt for. Its a lot less fun than dressing up, but it's still a good time.

I haven't been in a store since Trump reinforced COVID as a weak nothingburger for his cultists. It should be interesting to see how the mask ratio shifts during the next grocery run. I've been seeing 95-98% compliance when we go out.

I'm seeing non mask wearers doing their thing with complete non enforcement of mandatory mask postings at grocers. I believe this comes in response to the State Courts saying the governor issued mask mandates are illegal and voided. And this happens just as I was starting to grocery shop with a bit more frequency and started buying produce again. I should have moved out of this state in the early 90s when I had nothing to lose by doing so and kept weighing the decision.

[malchior]

FWIW these results could be what is driving the huge jump in the Biden lead. One of the big jumps that people questioned was the 60+ age range assuming they'd be angry white boomers who naturally are Trumpists. Perhaps being scared out of their mind in the "high" risk group is warranted. Nothing is as motivating as the "kids" debating pushing them out on a COVID-19 covered ice floe.

[Paingod]

So..how are we looking nationally, headed into our second full week of October?

GO MAINE!

Screw all the losers with "Fuck Mills" tags on their pickup trucks and lawns, and in particular that one house I pass sometimes with a "Mills is KILLING us with MASKS" sign poorly scrawled out front on their lawn.

Everything else is looking pretty bad, though. I hope y'all are staying safe and doing okay. Damn.

[Little Raven]

Why is Texas "trending poorly?"

Over the last two weeks, our positivity rate has gone from 10.2% to 6.9%, and our average new cases have fallen from 6400 cases a day to 4300 cases a day.

Isn't that the opposite of trending poorly? I mean, maybe that's still horrible, (although Texas has 30 million people) but it certainly seems like a good trend.

[noxiousdog]

Why is Texas "trending poorly?"

Over the last two weeks, our positivity rate has gone from 10.2% to 6.9%, and our average new cases have fallen from 6400 cases a day to 4300 cases a day.

Isn't that the opposite of trending poorly? I mean, maybe that's still horrible, (although Texas has 30 million people) but it certainly seems like a good trend.

Hospitalizations and new cases are going up. You might not see it in that graph, but you can see it here. While it looks marginal, the signs are showing up. Our school district has increase active cases 50% in the last week albeit from only 25 cases a week ago.

[LawBeefaroni]

Took one of the kids for dinner over the weekend. Sat outside but had a good view of an inside table by the big front window (it was open, fortunately). 6 people at the table, not couples. There were probably 15 empty whatever Claw seltzer cans, 30 beer bottles, and several shot glasses on the table when we sat down. Apparently the wait staff didn't want to clear their empties and they kept piling up as we had dinner. By the time they stumbled out, they bussers came over with gloves and face shields and shoveled all the contents into a trash bag.


On normal fall Saturday that would be no big thing but hearing them shout over each other and watching the spittle fly, I really felt for the staff having to deal with it all. Out 15 feet of outdoor distance barely seemed adequate.

[Smoove_B]

Why is Texas "trending poorly?"

In short, it's complicated.

For each state, we use a bruised red, red, yellow, green scale to chart the progress towards achieving the gating criteria. This is calculated using a simple rule. The score is as good as the weakest measure. The measures included in the score are: NEW CASES PER MILLION PER DAY, % TEST POSITIVE, % OF TEST TARGET, ICU CAPACITY, and ILI.

It's not just about # of tests or test positivity. Could be related to ICU capacity or influenza-like-illnesses being reported (broadly).

[malchior]

Why is Texas "trending poorly?"

Over the last two weeks, our positivity rate has gone from 10.2% to 6.9%, and our average new cases have fallen from 6400 cases a day to 4300 cases a day.

Isn't that the opposite of trending poorly? I mean, maybe that's still horrible, (although Texas has 30 million people) but it certainly seems like a good trend.

Hospitalizations and new cases are going up. You might not see it in that graph, but you can see it here. While it looks marginal, the signs are showing up. Our school district has increase active cases 50% in the last week albeit from only 25 cases a week ago.

Also - it is just the label they put on metrics such as the positivity rate. It'd be accurate to say they went from 'Uncontrolled Spread' to 'Trending Poorly' and that is an improvement. Replace with 'Shit is Horrible' and 'Shit is Bad' respectively and that is pretty much the message that is being conveyed. It an improvement...so keep it up but as pointed out there are signs it is starting to turn back towards 'Shit is Horrible'.

[LawBeefaroni]

"Trump is taking dexamethasone, a steroid that can give patients a false sense of recovery followed by a crash."

President Trump started a course of the steroid dexamethasone on Saturday after a drop in blood oxygen levels, his doctor Sean Conley said. The drug treats the symptoms of COVID-19 by targeting the immune system, resulting in relief from fever and a boost in energy.

The corticosteroid is typically reserved for the sickest patients, according to the World Health Organization. Despite the presumed severity of the president's condition, he continues to project an image of good health.

"I feel better than I did 20 years ago!" Trump tweeted on Monday, announcing his discharge from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. That may have been the steroid talking.

It's possible that dexamethasone could give Trump a false sense of recovery, said Panagis Galiatsatos, MD, a pulmonary physician at Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center.

...

The benefits of taking a steroid like dexamethasone come with the cost of potentially extending the course of illness. Steroids target the immune system, not the virus itself, and a weaker immune system will take longer to fight off the virus.

...

Both dexamethasone and remdesivir, another medication that Trump is taking according to his doctors, are meant to curtail the hyperactive immune response, while still allowing the immune system to continue doing what it's supposed to do: fighting off the virus.

"It's like putting up a fence around a bulldog. The bulldog will be there to do its stop and protect, but the fence — a.k.a. the steroid — is meant to not unleash the dog on everyone else," Galiatsatos said.

If prescribed to healthy patients or those with mild symptoms, dexamethasone can destroy a well-functioning immune system, Galiatsatos said. Trump's getting prescribed the steroid would suggest that he's sicker than his doctors are letting on.

[LordMortis]

Now that's my experience with steroids that target the lungs. None of the irritability stuff ally'all were talking about earlier. Mania, yes. Crankiness, no.

[Little Raven]

"Trump is taking dexamethasone, a steroid that can give patients a false sense of recovery followed by a crash."

Yeah I'm not at all convinced that Trump is over this.

I mean, COVID is not a disease that kills quickly. The first week may suck, but it's not usually the first week that kills you, or even the second week. It's the third, or the forth, or the fifth.....

[Isgrimnur]

bruised red,

???

Spoiler:

[Smoove_B]

They've just blended the black in, as not to induce immediate eye strain.

[Octavious]

The king has approved me working from home the next two days while I wait for test results. They made sure to point out he is very displeased that it was brought up again. Man I hate employees that are worried that work might not get done. I totally work for a Donald Trump clone.

[Isgrimnur]

FIND. A. NEW. JOB.

[Octavious]

FIND. A. NEW. JOB.

Ya assuming people are hiring in the area it should be easier for me now that my HC is through my wife's job. That was one thing that made it worth dealing with this kind of crazy...

[Octavious]

FIND. A. NEW. JOB.

Ya assuming people are hiring in the area it should be easier for me now that my HC is through my wife's job. That was one thing that made it worth dealing with this kind of crazy...

This was the email I got today.

I spoke to <the dear king> and to be candid he’s not happy that I asked him to revisit this.
You’ve already used up all of your sick days so if you’re sick you have to take vacation days which I know you’re doing for yesterday and today. That also goes for the rest of the year – if you are sick please
take vacation days.
He said if you are well enough to work tomorrow and Friday, he’ll approve work from home, but this is only because you’re waiting for the COVID results.

Awe shucks. Thanks! FYI I had like 9 vacation days left so I couldn't care less about using days. That wasn't the point.