Octopus Overlords

I placed vote number one on theohall back when the game started. I wanted to see how he reacted. He pretty much ignored it, then he got vote 2 and did not comment. I thought that seemed odd. Then the other 3 votes piled on before he made another appearance on the board.

I moved my vote to theohall. Guess that makes me look worse.. Sorry, it was self preservation... I really am just a member of the village.

1. Remus West - CF
2. Lassr - 2B
3. triggercut - C
4. bb2112 - 1B
5. WarPig - 3B
6. theohall - RF
7. RMC - LF
8. redrun - SS
9. Chaosraven - SP

It is Day 2. Who will you lynch?

Majority is 4.

Deadline is Tuesday, Oct. 9 at 9:00 pm (Eastern). (Although, I hope we won't need it).

Well I am a miss today, and with only 3 misses, I would be strike 2.

I think a good question is, why warpig?

Our seer will have one proven as well as themselves. So with seven left and 2 proven, that is still bad odds.

So if no one has a better bet, please fall back to me and vote me to be lynched. Unless the seer picked me or warpig, which might have happened, and the seer makes it through the night that would give you 5 left and 3 proven. Perfect odds to win.

<sigh> But that means we have to avoid revealing the seer, and hope that the wolves miss him. So we can lynch me without doing that.

So take it for what it is worth. I know that we have to hope the seer is still out there..But it should be pretty good..Although Theo never said he wasn't I suppose.

That was disappointing. I thought we might have been on to something with Theo.

The only thing I can think about "why Warpig" is that he is relatively new, therefore the wolves probably don't know a whole lot about him.

Anyone else have any ideas on wolves?

 RMC 
 

RMC wrote:Well I am a miss today, and with only 3 misses, I would be strike 2.

I think a good question is, why warpig?

Our seer will have one proven as well as themselves. So with seven left and 2 proven, that is still bad odds.

So if no one has a better bet, please fall back to me and vote me to be lynched. Unless the seer picked me or warpig, which might have happened, and the seer makes it through the night that would give you 5 left and 3 proven. Perfect odds to win.

<sigh> But that means we have to avoid revealing the seer, and hope that the wolves miss him. So we can lynch me without doing that.

So take it for what it is worth. I know that we have to hope the seer is still out there..But it should be pretty good..Although Theo never said he wasn't I suppose.

Why so suicidal?

That seemed over the top.

Or preemptively defensive.

bb2112 wrote:That was disappointing. I thought we might have been on to something with Theo.

The only thing I can think about "why Warpig" is that he is relatively new, therefore the wolves probably don't know a whole lot about him.

Anyone else have any ideas on wolves?

Yes.

I think you told us exactly the discussion the wolves had on "why Warpig". I know I'm projecting, but I just spent an entire game as a Wolf telling everyone pretty much what the wolves were doing and why they were doing it.

So...

 bb2112 
 

Do what you must, but you are wrong.

RMC wrote:Well I am a miss today, and with only 3 misses, I would be strike 2.

I think a good question is, why warpig?

Our seer will have one proven as well as themselves. So with seven left and 2 proven, that is still bad odds.

So if no one has a better bet, please fall back to me and vote me to be lynched. Unless the seer picked me or warpig, which might have happened, and the seer makes it through the night that would give you 5 left and 3 proven. Perfect odds to win.

<sigh> But that means we have to avoid revealing the seer, and hope that the wolves miss him. So we can lynch me without doing that.

So take it for what it is worth. I know that we have to hope the seer is still out there..But it should be pretty good..Although Theo never said he wasn't I suppose.

I'm confused. First you make a point of saying you'd be strike two implying we shouldn't kill you. Then you say we should vote you to protect the seer. Then you imply we should leave you around so you'll be a proven tomorrow. Then you say we should lynch you to protect the seer.

...and Remus, without comment, votes for you. Remus and you have really made of point of being the first vote on each other.

For all the suspicion you have been trying to throw our way you have yet to vote for either RMC or myself. In fact, you voted for theohall. When RMC had three votes on him you placed a second on theohall - in spite of having commented regarding RMC and myself earlier and again in the post you voted theohall. That second vote seems to be a bit of a "look there is another viable target" type vote.

So, I went read back through the game (rather easy this game!) to see what WarPig said. Only two things stood out to me:

First, this sequence:
Day one, BB2112 sez that WarPig is due. Triggercut responds to say that BB2112 is due. BB2112 again sez that WarPig is due and protesting too much. After WarPig's death Triggercut again points to BB2112... Obviously Triggercut is protecting his partner WarPig.... but WarPig died last night.

Second, RMC moves his vote to Theohall, vote three on Theohall:

RMC wrote: Withdraw Remus 
 

 Theohall 
 


Why Theohall? Why not? I could say he is due, but that usually doesn't work. So I am going with the person who was trying to make jokes about what the wolves should do. <shrug>

Why WarPig? He'd moved way up on my possible wolf list with his killing vote on Theohall, given that Theohall hadn't done a final data dump. His only real interaction was with BB2112 - but I don't think he'd pushed hard enough on BB2112 to make a (BB2112) wolf nervous. However, BB2112 was the fourth vote on Theohall.

BB2112 could be a wolf.
Triggercut could be a wolf. (Note: Triggercut's play last game has made me expect hidden reasons for his actions. I might be reading too much into his play this game...)
RMC and Remus still stand out to me.
I've no real read on anyone else.

I really saw nothing from Warpig that suggested he could be the seer so the wolves just took a stab in the dark I would assume on someone that was not very talkative.

RMC first post of the day seemed odd but is it wolfish odd?

there were no single straggler votes to look at, everyone voted for RMC or Theohall.

hmmm...

Chaosraven wrote:Or preemptively defensive.

so you think he's a wolf knowing he got very close yesterday?

Voting Tally:

1. Remus West - CF - RMC
2. Lassr - 2B -
3. triggercut - C - bb2112
4. bb2112 - 1B -
7. RMC - LF -
8. redrun - SS -
9. Chaosraven - SP -

RMC (1): Remus West
bb2112 (1): triggercut

Majority is 4.

The deadline is Tuesday, Oct. 9 at 9:00 pm (Eastern)

Lassr wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Or preemptively defensive.

so you think he's a wolf knowing he got very close yesterday?

I believe it is possible, at n-1, he feels he got lucky that a second lynch climbed right up there and saved him. If he is a wolf, his partner pretty well has to be in there with him. Although in the event his partner had already thrown a vote his way, they couldn't very well back off at n-1. dunno.

Chaosraven wrote:

Lassr wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Or preemptively defensive.

so you think he's a wolf knowing he got very close yesterday?

I believe it is possible, at n-1, he feels he got lucky that a second lynch climbed right up there and saved him. If he is a wolf, his partner pretty well has to be in there with him. Although in the event his partner had already thrown a vote his way, they couldn't very well back off at n-1. dunno.

Yeah, I'm there with you. I may be willing to test RMC today.

and Remus, I'm willing to test Remus only because I feel like a golfer that has been struck by lightning 4 times and I'm out playing golf now and a storm is brewing and I decide to continue playing instead of hitting the 19th hole.

All I am saying is, that I look guilty no matter what I do. I was at N-1, and through really no brand new insight from me, I was saved.

The wolves know I am a villager, but most think I might be a wolf. So should you all lynch me? No, but am I going to be lynched. Most likely yes.

Unless the Seer scanned me yesterday, or the seer was Theo or War, then I most likely will die today. And if we want to protect the seer one more day, then lynch me as by doing so, we are not reveling the seer, and as long as he is not killed at night, the game is won. So lynching me is a gamble, but i think an okay one.

Only the seer knows what he knows, so if he thinks he is in the clear for the night kill, then we win.

I guess the bad thing is if the seer is already gone, then lynching me is a bad move. But otherwise, I am just reducing the pool of possible seers for the wolves to kill at night if we lynch someone else. <shrug>

Unless someone has a burning opinion on someone else, I say lynch me. That gives the wolves all unknowns to choose from for the night kill, as I am the only one that has stated to everyone that I am just a villager. And this night kill could determines the game, as long as the seer is still around of course.

Oh and just because:  Remus West 
 

Oh hell, I have no idea.

 Lassr 
 


Because he is all sneaky and stuff. I was thinking about voting RW, then RMC went and ruined it for everybody.

bb2112 wrote:I was thinking about voting RW, then RMC went and ruined it for everybody.

How does that make sense?

Voting Tally:

1. Remus West - CF - RMC
2. Lassr - 2B -
3. triggercut - C - bb2112
4. bb2112 - 1B - Lassr
7. RMC - LF - Remus West
8. redrun - SS -
9. Chaosraven - SP -

RMC (1): Remus West
bb2112 (1): triggercut
Remus West (1): RMC
Lassr (1): bb2112

Majority is 4.

The deadline is Tuesday, Oct. 9 at 9:00 pm (Eastern)

Remus West wrote:

bb2112 wrote:I was thinking about voting RW, then RMC went and ruined it for everybody.

How does that make sense?

my read on it: RMC is a (the?) prime suspect, based on day one votes... So him starting a vote on you won't gather a train. His followup vote for lassr, though...  bb2112 
 

Chaosraven wrote:

Remus West wrote:

bb2112 wrote:I was thinking about voting RW, then RMC went and ruined it for everybody.

How does that make sense?

my read on it: RMC is a (the?) prime suspect, based on day one votes... So him starting a vote on you won't gather a train. His followup vote for lassr, though...  bb2112 
 

It certainly won't if nobody else votes there I suppose but it seems an odd tactic to take if you truly think I am a wolf then why would you not vote for me regardless of who else was voting for me?

BTW, good game all.

WOULD PLAY AGAIN.

bb2112 wrote:Oh hell, I have no idea.

 Lassr 
 


Because he is all sneaky and stuff. I was thinking about voting RW, then RMC went and ruined it for everybody.

I keep saying that I wonder if RMC and Remus are working together.
Lassr sez he'd vote for Remus.
RMC votes for Remus.
BB2112 tells us that RMC voting for Remus ruined it for everybody and votes for Lassr (?).

 Remus West 
 


From his play, I think Remus is a wolf. I think it is likely that BB2112 or RMC is his partner.

bb2112 wrote:Oh hell, I have no idea.

 Lassr 
 

I certainly have no idea either but Lassr is a bad choice. Come on you can do better than that!

 Remus West 
 

What are the odds you ask? The same for every new game.

oh wow, redrun voted while I was typing. So that puts him at N-1.

Chaosraven wrote:

Remus West wrote:

bb2112 wrote:I was thinking about voting RW, then RMC went and ruined it for everybody.

How does that make sense?

my read on it: RMC is a (the?) prime suspect, based on day one votes... So him starting a vote on you won't gather a train. His followup vote for lassr, though...  bb2112 
 

Hey, the door is open for the Remus kill!

Voting Tally:

1. Remus West - CF - RMC
2. Lassr - 2B - Remus West
3. triggercut - C - bb2112
4. bb2112 - 1B - Lassr
7. RMC - LF - Remus West
8. redrun - SS - Remus West
9. Chaosraven - SP - bb2112

RMC (1): Remus West
bb2112 (2): triggercut, Chaosraven
Remus West (3): RMC, redrun, Lassr
Lassr (1): bb2112

Majority is 4.

Remus West is N-1.

The deadline is Tuesday, Oct. 9 at 9:00 pm (Eastern)

Well, since I am at n-1 I'll simply say this. I wanted to lynch RMC today because I think it would tell us a lot about yesterday. I am a miss but not the Seer. I'd look at bb2112 and redrun as the main supects should RMC prove innocent - of course, if you lynch me you won't be able to test him and do anything with an innocent result so you'll be over a barrell on that one.

bb2112 simply seems off.
redrun had to be practically provoked into voting for me in spite of continually suggesting RMC and I are linked wolves.
Lassr's vote on me there seems odd too. He seems to be throwing it out there as though he has nothing better to do. He is usually more careful than that.

Also, why does redrun vote me when given yesterday's voting it would seem RMC would have been the more likely one to get lynched. Why did he not test RMC yesterday?

 redrun 
 

Remus West wrote: Lassr's vote on me there seems odd too. He seems to be throwing it out there as though he has nothing better to do. He is usually more careful than that.

It was a thought out vote, I just didn't expect redrun to vote for you at the same time I did.

Lassr wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Oh hell, I have no idea.

 Lassr 
 

I certainly have no idea either but Lassr is a bad choice. Come on you can do better than that!

 Remus West 
 

What are the odds you ask? The same for every new game.

Yes, seems very thought out. Or the exact opposite of that rather. You announce you have no idea then vote me and suggest the vote on me is pretty much random as you are looking at the odds rather than any actions.

Remus West wrote:

Lassr wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Oh hell, I have no idea.

 Lassr 
 

I certainly have no idea either but Lassr is a bad choice. Come on you can do better than that!

 Remus West 
 

What are the odds you ask? The same for every new game.

Yes, seems very thought out. Or the exact opposite of that rather. You announce you have no idea then vote me and suggest the vote on me is pretty much random as you are looking at the odds rather than any actions.

the odds comment is for anyone who does not want to vote for you because what are the odds that you would be a wolf 5 games in a row. Those would be very low. But as you've pointed out in the past that the odds of being a wolf are the same for everyone for each game no matter what happened the previous game.

Do I know you are a wolf, I do not. But you are damn good at fooling us into thinking you are not a wolf.

You are dancing around the issue. You claim the vote is thought out yet provide absolutely no reason for it beyond that odds comment which you now claim is not a reason for your vote but an enticement for others to vote. If it is a thought out vote then what is your reason? Personally, I'm thinking your reason is you feel I'm an easy target to get to night and make a kill.

 Lassr 
 

Well since Remus and I have outed ourselves as either wolves or non-seers(I am a non-seer).

This makes it harder for us to keep our seer alive.

1. Remus West - CF - Not Seer, maybe Wolf
2. Lassr - 2B -
3. triggercut - C -
4. bb2112 - 1B -
7. RMC - LF - Not Seer/ Not Wolf
8. redrun - SS -
9. Chaosraven - SP -

With two wolves, that means if we do not lynch myself or Remus we are going to limit the pool to less than 3. If Remus is a wolf, this does not matter, as he would not be really giving the wolves any new information. But if he is as he says, and I am as I say(which I am) and we lynch someone else, then the wolves would have a 50/50 shot of getting our seer at night.