Octopus Overlords

LordMortis wrote:I'm not sold on Tesla being a cold weather car yet... and the wiring in my house being able to support the change and draw.

Just curious--what specifically about cold weather are you worried about? Obv I don't have a Model 3, but I have a Leaf and a PHEV, so I may have some insight.

Exodor wrote:I should probably put down my $1000 to get a place in line.

Uh, yes. I have a feeling we're going to see a repeat of the Model S situation. Most of the coverage mentions 500k reservations as though Tesla has to produce 500k vehicles to empty the queue. As they mentioned a few k reservations for the S, back when Tesla hoped to eventually sell 20k Model S per year, and perhaps if they were hugely successful, 20k S and 20k X per year worldwide.

They now sell ~100k combined per year, at a significantly higher ASP than originally projected back in 2011/2012.

Methinks that as the 3 starts to be delivered in the hundreds and then thousands over the next several months, a bunch of people who have never heard of, or at least never seriously considered, Tesla will jump on board. In other words, this time next year they may have sold 150k Model 3 vehicles and have a longer backlog than they have today.

If you may want one, and you want to get it before 2020, get a deposit in.

noxiousdog wrote:
The all-wheel drive is supposed to be amazing. People with just the rear wheel drive S think it works great.

Zaxxon wrote:Just curious--what specifically about cold weather are you worried about? Obv I don't have a Model 3, but I have a Leaf and a PHEV, so I may have some insight.

Not the handling, the ability of the battery to discharge properly and provide the life it needs to. Batteries don't charge as well in cold weather and they discharge faster.

Literally the first review of sub 0 driving an Tesla batteries I picked off the Internet. Flash locks the page

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery- ... onditions/

I also wonder what it does to the life of the battery in general.

Zax, your review would hold more weight if you were in Chicago. Colorado gets warm during the day January. The Great Lakes, not so much.

I'm on the market for a car right now -- like, this month or next -- and am prepared to spend up to $30k. If the Model 3 were available right now it might be a contender. Can't wait a year or more for them to build me one, though, and stretching an extra $5k for the entry level model would be tough, especially since I'd want that autopilot feature too. Maybe someday, but not this time.

I wouldn't worry about the life; Teslas have a temperature-controlled battery management system; they simply will not get super cold regardless of ambient temp. Similar for charging--once the pack is warmed up it should charge at or very near par. The range will certainly drop significantly in bad/cold weather, though. I don't see anything like a 40-50% drop like your link in my Leaf, though. More like 10-25%.

This article summarizes a long-running data-gathering effort re: Tesla battery degradation over time/miles.

LordMortis wrote:Zax, your review would hold more weight if you were in Chicago. Colorado gets warm during the day January. The Great Lakes, not so much.

Many days, yes. We have our moments, though. The long and short of it is that cold weather is not a concern beyond the 'usual' increased energy consumption. Places like Norway wouldn't be leading Tesla cars-per-capita if they sucked in the cold.

MKBHD put out a video summarizing his thoughts on the Model 3. (He's an S P100D owner and got to actually drive the 3 during the day prior to last Friday's launch event.)

Zaxxon wrote:MKBHD put out a video summarizing his thoughts on the Model 3. (He's an S P100D owner and got to actually drive the 3 during the day prior to last Friday's launch event.)

That dude makes good review videos.

Sure does.

Its nice that they have a more mass market Tesla available but "affordable" is clearly a subjective term. $35k for a car is not affordable for a large percentage of people. Get one out around the $20k price point and then maybe call it affordable.

rshetts2 wrote:Its nice that they have a more mass market Tesla available but "affordable" is clearly a subjective term. $35k for a car is not affordable for a large percentage of people. Get one out around the $20k price point and then maybe call it affordable.

I think 'affordable' has always been a relative term when applied to the Model 3. That said, $35k is almost exactly the average new-car transaction price in the US. So $35k clearly meets the definition of affordable in the US, even before applying the $7,500-$12,500 fed/state credits for which many Model 3 buyers will qualify.

And from a $/electric mile of range perspective, the long-range 3 is now the cheapest option available currently. (Or rather it will be once it can be decoupled from the premium trim; currently it's in a virtual tie with the Bolt.)

With that said, the average selling price of the Model 3 in 2017 will likely be more like $49k than $35k, and I imagine it will continue to be in the mid-$40,000s in perpetuity as the introduction of the base model is counterbalanced by the intro of AWD and Performance trims.

I don't think affordable is the proper term for the Model 3. I think mainstream is more appropriate.

coopasonic wrote:I don't think affordable is the proper term for the Model 3. I think mainstream is more appropriate.

$35K is almost exactly what I paid (or more accurately expect to end up paying) for my current car. I'd trade it in a heartbeat for a base model 3 but I didn't want to go through the wait time.

I figure by the time I'm in the market again there will be more Tesla and/or non-Tesla FEVs available.

BTW, is there any kind of used market for Teslas? Goodness knows I see a ton on the road now so those aspirational owners need to trade up soon.

noxiousdog wrote:

Zaxxon wrote:MKBHD put out a video summarizing his thoughts on the Model 3. (He's an S P100D owner and got to actually drive the 3 during the day prior to last Friday's launch event.)

That dude makes good review videos.

I second that (or I guess third if we count Zaxxon).

LawBeefaroni wrote:BTW, is there any kind of used market for Teslas? Goodness knows I see a ton on the road now so those aspirational owners need to trade up soon.

They sell them on the Tesla site, but their interface is pretty horrid. EV-CPO Hunter is a good alternative.

LawBeefaroni wrote: BTW, is there any kind of used market for Teslas? Goodness knows I see a ton on the road now so those aspirational owners need to trade up soon.

They are still exceedingly rare out here in suburbia. The only place I've ever seen a public charger was Yorktown mall (they had one, it was unoccupied). And I'm twice as far from the city.

Jeff V wrote:

LawBeefaroni wrote: BTW, is there any kind of used market for Teslas? Goodness knows I see a ton on the road now so those aspirational owners need to trade up soon.

They are still exceedingly rare out here in suburbia. The only place I've ever seen a public charger was Yorktown mall (they had one, it was unoccupied). And I'm twice as far from the city.

I was in Hinsdale for the 4th, I was shocked at how many $90K+ vehicles I saw yet almost no Teslas in sight. Guess it's different in the city. There are a few in our alley alone.

But I thought that the super charging stations are more for long distance travel. You charge at home or work for daily driving. And there are those slow chargers all over at Walgreens and the like.

LawBeefaroni wrote:But I thought that the super charging stations are more for long distance travel. You charge at home or work for daily driving. And there are those slow chargers all over at Walgreens and the like.

They're supposed to mostly be for long-distance travel, but Tesla has recently started putting out some larger stations in more urban areas now that they are charging per-kWh in some cases. Makes sense as I imagine there's a greater percentage of folks in the Model 3 demographic who may not have simple access to home charging.

And yeah, a quick look at Plugshare.com shows a ton of chargers near Yorktown Mall. I've never really understood the Walgreens ones, though. Seems much more of an optics thing than a useful location for chargers. As you said, those are pretty slow--maxing out around 6 kW, I think (that's around 20-30 miles of range in an hour of charging, depending on the vehicle). And who's going to stay at Walgreens for more than 10-15 minutes?

Zaxxon wrote:And who's going to stay at Walgreens for more than 10-15 minutes?

A: The sorry SOB who has more than a couple of miles to drive to get home.

I had no idea Walgreens even had chargers. I don't recall seeing them out this way. There's one a few blocks from work, maybe I'll walk over and see if they actually do have one.

After reflection I am going to stay the course and go with the basic 220 mile model. After the $7k rebate that gets me down to $28k plus the cost of an electrical storage module to feed off my solar panels. There are not many places I want to go by car over 110 miles away. If there is an exception to that I could plot out a station to station route.

Is anyone developing a roof-mounted solar panel? That would seem the logical next step.

Yes there is.

Jaymann wrote:After reflection I am going to stay the course and go with the basic 220 mile model. After the $7k rebate that gets me down to $28k plus the cost of an electrical storage module to feed off my solar panels. There are not many places I want to go by car over 110 miles away. If there is an exception to that I could plot out a station to station route.

I'm debating the same thing. I do want AWD, but don't necessarily want to wait until the credit gets halved to get it. So we'll see. 220 miles + Supercharger access is still pretty great so long as you're not routinely needing to exceed 200 miles in a day. Especially if it saves you $9k and you don't care about shaving the extra 0.5s off the 0-60, or going 140 mph instead of 130 mph (I don't).

But the premium upgrades package is tempting (mainly for the all-glass roof but also for the heated seats, rear-seat USB ports, driver profiles, folding/heated mirrors, and improved audio). As is Autopilot. Which still bumps the price significantly. Thank heavens for Colorado's extra $5k credit, as that'll get me one or the other of those packages.

Is anyone developing a roof-mounted solar panel? That would seem the logical next step.

The roof's surface area, especially considering that most vehicles are out of the sun much of the time and not oriented ideally virtually any of the time, isn't enough to have a meaningful impact. The Prius has/had a solar roof option that would aid in keeping the cabin temp cooler in hot weather. Tesla talked about a solar roof option for the 3, but concluded that unless they Inspector Gadgeted it to fold out and fill an entire standard parking lot space, it wasn't going to do anything significant to add to range routinely. In any event, it would cost more to add than it would save over the lifetime of the vehicle.

One of those things that sounds good but isn't very practical. You're far better off putting panels on your home (if you can) and powering your vehicle routinely via that. Much more cost-effective.

Alex Venz has a reasonably in-depth video up today going into the cost comparison b/t a Model 3 and its BMW/Audi/MB counterparts in a few different configurations. Spoiler: the Model 3 does pretty well even without any fed/state tax credits. He doesn't take into account cost of home charging installation but also doesn't penalize the dino-juice cars for higher fuel costs, so I think those two things probably balance out pretty well.

Of course most of us here are considering a 3 in place of something cheaper than a BMW/Audi/MB vehicle, but those are what the 3 really competes with in terms of performance.

Zaxxon wrote:
One of those things that sounds good but isn't very practical.

Pfft. Just need a trailer hitch. Yesterday, I passed 4 trucks all towing large square segments of something -- road, pre-fab housing, rafts for horses, or some such. Simply tow a big-ass chunk of solar panel and you can drive anywhere except where it rains. See, I'm trying to think outside of the box to make these cars practical!

Jeff V wrote:Simply tow a big-ass chunk of solar panel and you can drive anywhere except where it rains.

Or where the sun sets. Stupid sun.

coopasonic wrote:

Jeff V wrote:Simply tow a big-ass chunk of solar panel and you can drive anywhere except where it rains.

Or where the sun sets. Stupid sun.

Well, if the trailer is long enough then the sun never sets.

Zaxxon wrote:

coopasonic wrote:

Jeff V wrote:Simply tow a big-ass chunk of solar panel and you can drive anywhere except where it rains.

Or where the sun sets. Stupid sun.

Well, if the trailer is long enough then the sun never sets.

Naaa...it would get too wet. Better to create a better panel that can run off lunar power (it is, after all, just reflected sunlight!)

Motor Trend's 'World's Greatest Drag-Race' 7. Tesla does alright.

Doug DeMuro after some time with the Model 3.

I got an email from Tesla, the Model 3 has been delayed.

Jaymann wrote:I got an email from Tesla, the Model 3 has been delayed.

Ditto. More specifically, my estimated window slipped by a month, from Nov-Jan to Dec-Feb. Sounds like the main issue (there may be others) is the automation of 2 out of 4 of the battery pack's sections. Folks from Tesla's German Grohmann engineering division are in Sparks working on it.

We shall see. I always took the Nov-Jan with a Musk-sized grain of salt and have been hoping for April.

My business lead gave me a ride in his brand new Tesla Model X 75D. It was really cool. I saw nothing that justified the price to me. Note that I have never spent more than $36k on a car and am unlikely to (adjusting for inflation as time goes by). A friend offered to let me buy his Model 3 off him (whenever his turn came around), but it looked like it would likely be north of $50k kitted out how I would want it kitted out. I tend to like performance and tech toys (but I am going to drive myself, thanks).

I don't want to get all Jeff V here, just wanted to mention that I finally sat in a Tesla and it was cool.

Yeah, we are still definitely still in the early adopter surcharge stage of the EV game. On all EVs, including the 3 and Bolt.

coopasonic wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:33 pm My business lead gave me a ride in his brand new Tesla Model X 75D. It was really cool. I saw nothing that justified the price to me. Note that I have never spent more than $36k on a car and am unlikely to (adjusting for inflation as time goes by). A friend offered to let me buy his Model 3 off him (whenever his turn came around), but it looked like it would likely be north of $50k kitted out how I would want it kitted out. I tend to like performance and tech toys (but I am going to drive myself, thanks).

I don't want to get all Jeff V here, just wanted to mention that I finally sat in a Tesla and it was cool.

Did you drive it though? You have to drive it. And I mean 0-60 as fast as you can, autopilot and all of that. 90d is a better trial though.

I'm not a buyer either but they are exceptional automobiles.

Still rare as hens teeth here and the only public charger I've ever seen is at a mall about 30 miles from my house and 15 from my job. Every time I've been to that mall the charger was unused...because nobody is driving electric cars around here.

Jeff V wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:25 pm Still rare as hens teeth here and the only public charger I've ever seen is at a mall about 30 miles from my house and 15 from my job. Every time I've been to that mall the charger was unused...because nobody is driving electric cars around here.

The cars are everywhere here. I'll do a porch test over a beer if I remember but I'd guess at least one every 5-10 minutes on average .

Yeah, I see multiple S and X every day. There is now a Tesla showroom within spitting distance... that may have an impact.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:41 pm

Jeff V wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:25 pm Still rare as hens teeth here and the only public charger I've ever seen is at a mall about 30 miles from my house and 15 from my job. Every time I've been to that mall the charger was unused...because nobody is driving electric cars around here.

The cars are everywhere here. I'll do a porch test over a beer if I remember but I'd guess at least one every 5-10 minutes on average .

coopasonic wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:06 pm Yeah, I see multiple S and X every day. There is now a Tesla showroom within spitting distance... that may have an impact.

I'm guessing that's due to a preponderance of trips under 10 miles. I'm not sure I see one a month on the tollways out here...I don't even recall the last one I saw. Other EVs are equally scarce, I saw a Leaf once but it was at a Nissan dealer.

Maybe I mentioned this before, I did see one a couple of months ago on the interstate between here and Madison. It was on a flatbed trailer being hauled by a truck.

Several in the garage at work are commuters of over 20 miles. My friend and I use his to go to Hoffman Estates on a regular basis. We've never charged on the round trip.

I'm not sure where the 10 mile thing is from.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:50 pm I'm not sure where the 10 mile thing is from.

Jeff thinks all EVs are the original Nissan Leaf.

Which is funny, as even that could easily do more than 10 miles each way, uphill in the rain.

coopasonic wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:02 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:50 pm I'm not sure where the 10 mile thing is from.

Jeff thinks all EVs are the original Nissan Leaf.

My commute to work is about 40 miles each way. It is highly unlikely that intercity commutes are nearly as long. I chose 10 miles as that radius covers most of the desirable 'hoods in relation to downtown.