Octopus Overlords

Grifman wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:58 pmI’m so ashamed to be an American.

He accuses him of being educated in America, not just being an American. Is he an American, or is that being used as a simple insult.

"American" is probably going to be trending as a derogatory term in other countries for a while, used to describe anyone being ignorant and aggressive.

Don't forget fat and loud.

Paingod wrote:"American" is probably going to be trending as a derogatory term in other countries for a while, used to describe anyone being ignorant and aggressive.

I'm a member of a Harry Potter podcast Discord channel (long story), and I can tell you I get more pity than anything from our British friends.

Sorry sunshine, wrong place.

Can that become a thing?

YellowKing wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:11 pm

Paingod wrote:"American" is probably going to be trending as a derogatory term in other countries for a while, used to describe anyone being ignorant and aggressive.

I'm a member of a Harry Potter podcast Discord channel (long story), and I can tell you I get more pity than anything from our British friends.

I speak to Australia, Europe, and the UK *every day*. I am peppered with questions and I agree. Pity or sadness is the way I'd describe it. Though the UK people I'm able to rib back about Brexit. They widely know that is a ticking time bomb of a disaster.

Why not rib them back about COVID? They aren't exactly a stellar example.

Alefroth wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:48 pm Why not rib them back about COVID? They aren't exactly a stellar example.

Because we are in no position to judge.

coopasonic wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:01 pm

Alefroth wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:48 pm Why not rib them back about COVID? They aren't exactly a stellar example.

Because we are in no position to judge.

Freedom!

Paingod wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:05 pm

Grifman wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:58 pmI’m so ashamed to be an American.

He accuses him of being educated in America, not just being an American. Is he an American, or is that being used as a simple insult.

"American" is probably going to be trending as a derogatory term in other countries for a while, used to describe anyone being ignorant and aggressive.

The questioner spoke with an American accent, not a New Zealand accent.

Grifman wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:58 pm Geez, we’re so stupid:

https://twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1 ... 61057?s=21

I’m so ashamed to be an American.

And that’s Winston Peters, who is mostly seen as a out of touch xenophobe. Even most of our fringe parties are more reasonable than the Republican Party.

Well...shit.

https://twitter.com/MartinLandray/statu ... 2011111425

Geez, did they use Remdesevir as the control?

coopasonic wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:01 pm

Alefroth wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:48 pm Why not rib them back about COVID? They aren't exactly a stellar example.

Because we are in no position to judge.

My point was, neither are they.

I went to a restaurant for the first time since March. We had a date night, and I was just done with ordering take out. I just wanted to sit somewhere and have a nice meal and a beer on draft and be somewhere close to normal.

It was as close to normal as you could expect. Lowered capacity, half the tables removed so everyone could stay 6 feet apart, wait staff wearing masks, etc. Probably the scariest aspect of the whole experience were the large warning signs on the door stating that despite their numerous safety precautions, Covid-19 is a highly contagious disease and you accepted any risk associated with eating indoors. Felt a bit apocalyptic for my tastes.

I definitely get the frustration from people who have done the right thing since the start of this, sacrificing friends, family, vacations, eating out, etc. while others just go about living their lives like normal. I watch friends on Facebook posting videos of them out listening to live music and partying. You feel like the kid stuck inside looking out his bedroom window watching everyone else play. And while I know those folks are taking big risks and being irresponsible, it's still frustrating.

I feel like I've given up nearly a year of LIVING for what? For numbers to be the same if not worse than they've always been? Glad I could be of service. Glad I could miss out on a year of experiences with my kids so everyone else can go party and make absolutely no dent in resolving this situation.

YellowKing wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:43 pmGlad I could miss out on a year of experiences with my kids so everyone else can go party and make absolutely no dent in resolving this situation.

The lockdown (or...not-lockdown, or whatever it is we're doing) was never intended to resolve the situation. That's pretty much impossible unless you're an island. The goal was to flatten the curve and keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed until we can get a vaccine. We have largely succeeded in that goal, at least so far.

Even countries that "did it right" like Germany and Denmark are seeing their cases surge, because that's what viruses do in the winter. There's no way out but through.

YellowKing wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:43 pm I feel like I've given up nearly a year of LIVING for what?

For the people whom we gave an opportunity to waste it. For the people who think masks erode our freedoms to render the sacrifice irrelevant. Yes, we did get some benefit. We slowed it. But what we achieved was a tiny fraction of what we should have achieved. Could have achieved.

Little Raven wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:23 pm

YellowKing wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:43 pmGlad I could miss out on a year of experiences with my kids so everyone else can go party and make absolutely no dent in resolving this situation.

The lockdown (or...not-lockdown, or whatever it is we're doing) was never intended to resolve the situation. That's pretty much impossible unless you're an island. The goal was to flatten the curve and keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed until we can get a vaccine. We have largely succeeded in that goal, at least so far.

Even countries that "did it right" like Germany and Denmark are seeing their cases surge, because that's what viruses do in the winter. There's no way out but through.

And countries in Europe introduced partial lockdowns (NL), controls (DE), measures (IT), or restrictions (DK) by whatever name you want to associate to them. In the face of escalating numbers they aren't ripping off the seatbelt, stepping on the gas, and yelling yee-haw as they drive at a wall to try to 'get through' it like we are in many states.

Seen a lot of anti everything from Germany this year. Seems they have as many of the same kind of stupid as we do.

YellowKing wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:43 pm
I feel like I've given up nearly a year of LIVING for what? For numbers to be the same if not worse than they've always been? Glad I could be of service. Glad I could miss out on a year of experiences with my kids so everyone else can go party and make absolutely no dent in resolving this situation.

The only thing I really feel as a loss is the kids missing time with their grandparents. One grandfather is 92 and the other had a stroke. This was a precious year and we had a lot of plans around them.

Everything else, missed vacations, trips, we've more than made up for in sheer time spent together. About 5 years worth of activity-free Saturdays to do whatever. Not a single babysitter or drop off class or anything.


Sure it's frustrating to see other people not giving a shit but can't let it get to you. Learned that about climate change, overonsumption, recycling, fiscal irresponsibility, you name it. Other people usually don't care and often make things worse.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 pm

YellowKing wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:43 pm
I feel like I've given up nearly a year of LIVING for what? For numbers to be the same if not worse than they've always been? Glad I could be of service. Glad I could miss out on a year of experiences with my kids so everyone else can go party and make absolutely no dent in resolving this situation.

The only thing I really feel as a loss is the kids missing time with their grandparents. One grandfather is 92 and the other had a stroke. This was a precious year and we had a lot of plans around them.

Everything else, missed vacations, trips, we've more than made up for in sheer time spent together. About 5 years worth of activity-free Saturdays to do whatever. Not a single babysitter or drop off class or anything.


Sure it's frustrating to see other people not giving a shit but can't let it get to you. Learned that about climate change, overonsumption, recycling, fiscal irresponsibility, you name it. Other people usually don't care and often make things worse.

Ditto. My wife and I have been enjoying the time spent with our kids in the evenings and on weekends. Heck, my neighbor got my kids to enjoy playing basketball with the portable hoop he set up along his street. They're out there every day shooting hoops and I'm out there with them around 4:30. It's a great way to blow off steam and bond with my kids.

It also helps that I've basically turned away from facebook. I'm sure there are people posting pics of themselves going out on facebook. But I just turn my mind's eye away from them. The local friends that I have are all pretty responsible and have also been isolating themselves. And we get by playing asynchronous games like "Lords of Waterdeep" on the app.

YellowKing wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:43 pm I went to a restaurant for the first time since March.

We started going out once a week when the spring spike in MA dwindled to a simmer. I'll only eat outdoors, though, and because winter is coming we've stepped it up to 2-3x per week (lunch, usually). When it gets too cold to eat outdoors that will be the end of not-takeout restaurant meals until next spring. Ordinarily that would happen by November, but since 2020 is on track to be the hottest year ever, who knows?

Today I said to Wife, "If someone told you a year ago that we'd be eating at a picnic table in a parking lot next to the busiest intersection of town, you'd have thought they were nuts." To which she replied, "And we consider it a treat." Then we grinned as a fire truck went by and drowned out the conversation.

Kraken wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:26 pmWe started going out once a week when the spring spike in MA dwindled to a simmer. I'll only eat outdoors, though, and because winter is coming we've stepped it up to 2-3x per week (lunch, usually). When it gets too cold to eat outdoors that will be the end of not-takeout restaurant meals until next spring. Ordinarily that would happen by November, but since 2020 is on track to be the hottest year ever, who knows?

Today I said to Wife, "If someone told you a year ago that we'd be eating at a picnic table in a parking lot next to the busiest intersection of town, you'd have thought they were nuts." To which she replied, "And we consider it a treat." Then we grinned as a fire truck went by and drowned out the conversation.

My wife and her co-workers go on Fridays to a popular Mexican restaurant. They actually converted part of their parking lot into a covered patio complete with stucco floors, etc. They went on Friday and now that it is getting colder the waitress tried pressured them a half dozen times to go inside to get out of the cold. The distance isn't an issue - the restaurant is tiny but she just didn't want to come outside to check on them. They obviously didn't want to sit inside in a tiny restaurant. They'll probably get one last trip in on Friday and then it's done for the season.

For me, I haven't gone to a restaurant since March. I order from my favorite restaurants to keep them afloat but I see no need to go sit there. We did go to a soft opening of a brewery I am a part owner in a couple of weeks ago. I grabbed a beer and went immediately outside...as did almost everyone else. I've been seeing a lot of chatter about this so I think it might be a rough winter for restaurants. I guess it'll depend on how much delivery business they do.

The consensus among local restaurateurs is that 25% won't survive the winter without government help. Most of those that have survived this long are barely hanging on. Some are mothballing until spring -- negotiate deals with their landlords if they can and basically just keep one nightlight burning. Others have invested in extraordinary sanitation measures (such as new air circulation systems with multiple antivirus measures -- HEPA filter, UV-C lights, copper filter, aerosols) in a gamble on luring customers over the winter.

Sweden might use localized 'lockdowns' to battle coronavirus.

The new rules, expected to come into force on Monday, will allow regional health authorities to ask citizens to avoid public places such as shopping centres, museums, libraries, swimming pools, concerts and gyms.

Authories could also ask people to stay away from public transport or avoid visiting elderly or at-risk groups. The rules would be offered as guidelines rather than requirements with the country continuing to avoid fines.

Bitte Brastad, chief legal officer at the agency, said the new measures were 'something in between regulations and recommendations' and Dr Nojd confimed further measures would be imposed if contact tracing shows links between infections and certain areas.

The Scandinavian country was a talking point during the pandemic for its resistance to imposing a national lockdown like its European neighbours.

The move marks a new approach in Sweden's handling of the virus - after the country kept bars and restaurants open while the rest of the world shut down in March.

Much of Europe has introduced measures such as shutting or ordering early closing of bars, but now the surging infection rates are also testing the resolve of governments to keep schools and non-COVID medical care running.

On Saturday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned her citizens to expect 'difficult months ahead' as the country posted a new daily record of over 7,800 new coronavirus cases, and urged Germans to come together like they did in the spring to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

'Difficult months are ahead of us,' she said in her weekly video podcast. 'How winter will be, how our Christmas will be - that will all be decided in these coming days and weeks, and it will be decided by our behaviour.'

I do wonder what the long-term impact on culture is going to be. I don't mean this as a negative, but as genuine curiosity. Just to borrow a number, let's say that 25% of businesses close across the board. What replaces them? More of the same? Something new? Do we get a new wave of fresh takes on the old ideas? Some industries are likely to take it much harder, maybe losing 75%. Do those industries 'recover' and repopulate afterwards, or does the space in the economy spur on a new wave of innovation? What about the long-term effects on people themselves? Doing without for a year and a half (by the time things start to return to normal) may make people reconsider what they consider important. It may bring a renewal of focus on extended family and in-person social activities. People are going to permanently leave old habits behind when they become available again, and replace them with new ones. How will it change our music? Film? Television? Theater?

Hell, just look at the impact this will have on how people work! Work-from-home used to be a weird thing that people heard about but never thought would work for them. Now it's becoming common, and may not go back to expensive office space. Home office startups are in an amazing position right now! People are going to want furniture, tech, and things to solve problems we didn't even know were problems yet. What about people building on to their homes to accommodate an office?

Losing a percentage of everything is catastrophic, yes. But is also almost guaranteed to bring about dramatic evolution, which can be good (or not.) I'd be very, very interested to see what our culture evolves into from the perspective of 25 years from now (hopefully I'll be alive to see the analysis.)

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:53 pmpartial lockdowns (NL), controls (DE), measures (IT), or restrictions (DK) by whatever name you want to associate to them. In the face of escalating numbers they aren't ripping off the seatbelt, stepping on the gas, and yelling yee-haw as they drive at a wall to try to 'get through' it like we are in many states.

Everyone uses not-lockdowns to flatten the curve. And they do that. But that's all they do.

People seem to feel like our not-lockdown....failed, somehow? But it didn't. It did exactly what it was supposed to do. We flattened the curve and kept the ERs from being overrun. (at tremendous cost, of course) That's success. The virus was never going to just go away because people stayed home for a while. IF that ever happens, it won't happen until we get herd immunity, preferably from a vaccine. It certainly won't happen because of not-lockdowns.

Little Raven wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:21 am

malchior wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:53 pmpartial lockdowns (NL), controls (DE), measures (IT), or restrictions (DK) by whatever name you want to associate to them. In the face of escalating numbers they aren't ripping off the seatbelt, stepping on the gas, and yelling yee-haw as they drive at a wall to try to 'get through' it like we are in many states.

Everyone uses not-lockdowns to flatten the curve. And they do that. But that's all they do.

People seem to feel like our not-lockdown....failed, somehow? But it didn't. It did exactly what it was supposed to do. We flattened the curve and kept the ERs from being overrun. (at tremendous cost, of course) That's success.

I find your definition of success to be pretty generous. Heck it almost seems framed to classify a response that by the numbers is incredibly poor as a success. The facts are stark. We have some of the highest case rates and death rates against other major economies. It's hard to rate us amidst the ongoing crisis but our 'not lockdown' looks like it was instead very poor at best. From the article above:

CIDRAP wrote:Likely were due to a poor pandemic response rather than an early surge of coronavirus cases before virus prevention and treatment methods were improved.

"Compared with other countries, the US experienced high COVID-19–associated mortality and excess all-cause mortality into September 2020," the authors wrote. "After the first peak in early spring, US death rates from COVID-19 and from all causes remained higher than even countries with high COVID-19 mortality. This may have been a result of several factors, including weak public health infrastructure and a decentralized, inconsistent US response to the pandemic."

Hardly a ringing endorsement. It's not hard to believe that by the end of the year that statement will just be crossed out to say December instead of September. In the end, avoiding a catastrophe -- the healthcare system collapsing -- is a poor bar for success.

The virus was never going to just go away because people stayed home for a while. IF that ever happens, it won't happen until we get herd immunity, preferably from a vaccine. It certainly won't happen because of not-lockdowns.

You seem to be oversimplifying this. No one is saying that the only "one" goal is to stamp out the virus. Some would like to achieve that but that is of course difficult. Especially with our open societies. However, by many measures we did horrible because our response was inconsistent, politicized, and our President egged on non-compliance with simple, effective controls. It didn't need to be lockdown to save potentially tens of thousands of lives. Our peers had more stringent controls and better response than us in the Spring. They had a mostly normal summer. Now that the virus is expanding again they are re-imposing some controls. That sounds to me to be a heck of a better approach to me. Even the most famous country that tried voluntary controls (Sweden) is now re-thinking their response. Social distancing controls and other voluntary measures on their own don't work universally. Doubly so here when portions of the political class are borderline malicious.

In any case, the point of my post was to show that our peer economies are imposing more controls now. Call them not lockdowns if you want but in the face of a 2nd/3rd wave they are taking action. And so far we are sort of just pressing down on the gas without a plan. We are almost certainly heading for much higher case counts than the summer numbers. And it gets us no nearer to being done with this thing. We are trading lives for little measurable positive outcome. That's my definition of a failure.

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:09 amI find your definition of success to be pretty generous.

What else was a not-lockdown supposed to accomplish? I didn't say our overall approach was a success. Just that the not-lockdown flattened the curve. That's all a not-lockdown can do.

In any case, the point of my post was to show that our peer economies are imposing more controls now.

I'm sure we will too, if our ERs start getting overwhelmed. It's the only arrow in the quiver.

Little Raven wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:37 am

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:09 amI find your definition of success to be pretty generous.

What else was a not-lockdown supposed to accomplish? I didn't say our overall approach was a success. Just that the not-lockdown flattened the curve. That's all a not-lockdown can do.

In any case, the point of my post was to show that our peer economies are imposing more controls now.

I'm sure we will too, if our ERs start getting overwhelmed. It's the only arrow in the quiver.

“Flatten the curve” is so last March. Didn’t you get the memo? We must eradicate this virus, or it’s all for naught! We must all suck it up and consign ourselves to remote learning and remote working and takeout (be sure to wipe that shit down) or we are not doing our part.

Seriously, though, the shifting of these goal posts is historic.

Blackhawk wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:31 pm I do wonder what the long-term impact on culture is going to be. I don't mean this as a negative, but as genuine curiosity.

I've thought about this a lot. I treat it as if I'm reading a novel about this pandemic and I'm trying to guess what will happen next. I want to believe things will go back to what everyone calls 'normal' but the money thing keeps popping up in my mind.
1. People out of work means vastly reduced income vs what was expected, that's gonna leave a mark.
2. Vastly reduced tax revenue from local on up to federal level, that's gonna leave a mark.
3. Vastly increased costs to repair the damage at a time when there are fewer financial resources to draw on.

Even if a vaccine is developed in the next month or two AND it's 100% effective AND we produce enough for all Americans AND we get enough people to get vaccinated so it does its job AND this happens within the next couple of months after developing the vaccine, those three money issues will still exist.

The word that comes to mind is 'austerity'. Whatever happens to our culture, austerity is going to be the driving force. That's what I think. Right now what we are in is not something I'd call austerity and look at how Americans can't get along anymore. Imagine how it's going to be when it's time to clean up the mess and everyone is broke!

Kurth wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:24 am

Little Raven wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:37 am

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:09 amI find your definition of success to be pretty generous.

What else was a not-lockdown supposed to accomplish? I didn't say our overall approach was a success. Just that the not-lockdown flattened the curve. That's all a not-lockdown can do.

In any case, the point of my post was to show that our peer economies are imposing more controls now.

I'm sure we will too, if our ERs start getting overwhelmed. It's the only arrow in the quiver.

“Flatten the curve” is so last March. Didn’t you get the memo? We must eradicate this virus, or it’s all for naught! We must all suck it up and consign ourselves to remote learning and remote working and takeout (be sure to wipe that shit down) or we are not doing our part.

Seriously, though, the shifting of these goal posts is historic.

I'd settle for not being in the top 3 of stupidest country response to the virus as measured by cases and deaths per capita.

Little Raven wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:37 am

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:09 amI find your definition of success to be pretty generous.

What else was a not-lockdown supposed to accomplish? I didn't say our overall approach was a success. Just that the not-lockdown flattened the curve. That's all a not-lockdown can do.

In any case, the point of my post was to show that our peer economies are imposing more controls now.

I'm sure we will too, if our ERs start getting overwhelmed. It's the only arrow in the quiver.

Forgive me for being confused. Lockdowns being only to protect the health care system reads very binary to me. There is a whole range of reasons to do lockdowns beyond that. I'll say it again, Europe largely had a fairly normal summer because they maintained restrictions longer and with more focus. Meanwhile we did whatever the fuck we did and the virus raged through the summer. And now is poised to come back even stronger.

Kurth wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:24 amSeriously, though, the shifting of these goal posts is historic.

What goal posts have been shifted? I'd say part of the problem has been that we've had *NO GOALS* and *NO STRATEGY*. Especially now that it is about to get worse and we might have electoral chaos. Every state has been doing their own thing making anything approaching return to normal impossible.

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:55 amWhat goal posts have been shifted? I'd say part of the problem has been that we've had *NO GOALS* and *NO STRATEGY*. Especially now that it is about to get worse and we might have electoral chaos. Every state has been doing their own thing making anything approaching return to normal impossible.

Interestingly, I think the substance of your argument is correct. Thousands of lives could have been saved with just goals, strategy, and a medically coherent message. However, per capita we aren't that far out of line with similar Europeans nationsJohn's Hopkins mortality rates per 100,000.

I think trying to reach German or non-Sweden Scandinavian culture compliance is too out of character for Americans.

I also think Kurth and Little Raven are right. Most of the governors were watching hospitals. That was the only thing they were medically trying to protect while giving a bit of lip service to other stuff.

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:55 amForgive me for being confused.

All I've been saying is that non-lockdowns do not eliminate the virus. They slow it down. That's all they do, and that's all we should expect them to do. If you want to actually eliminate the thing, you have to do a hell of a lot more than just restrict things. You need contact tracing, enforced quarantines, and lots and lots of tests. We don't do any of that. (in fairness, only a few countries in the world actually do)

I'm noticing a lot of people who are frustrated that they have given up so much over the last 6 months, and this frustration often manifests as a feeling that the not-lockdown failed. After all, the numbers are worse than ever! Why did we bother doing all that?

That's an understandable feeling, but I don't think it's fair. The numbers were always going to get bad again in the fall. The Smooves of the world have been saying that all summer. The not-lockdown slowed COVID down, but it was never going to get rid of it. Not here, and not in Europe.

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:31 am

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:55 amWhat goal posts have been shifted? I'd say part of the problem has been that we've had *NO GOALS* and *NO STRATEGY*. Especially now that it is about to get worse and we might have electoral chaos. Every state has been doing their own thing making anything approaching return to normal impossible.

Interestingly, I think the substance of your argument is correct. Thousands of lives could have been saved with just goals, strategy, and a medically coherent message. However, per capita we aren't that far out of line with similar Europeans nationsJohn's Hopkins mortality rates per 100,000.

Overall yes but I think this is a bit misleading. They got hit earlier and harder before anyone knew what we were dealing with. Same for NY/NJ. Those states have higher death tolls because we didn't have knowledge. That is why one of the paper's I linked above focuses after the initial period - I think many are choosing late April/May as a dividing line between not knowing anything and having enough knowledge to make focused impact. And since then we have diverged sharply from the European nations. They didn't have coronavirus burning through their countries the whole of the summer. Instead, I got to hear about how all my European co-workers went on vacations while I never left my pool side.

I think trying to reach German or non-Sweden Scandinavian culture compliance is too out of character for Americans.

I've spoken to those people daily and the controls they put in place weren't all that stringent. I think most of it comes down to complete absolute lack of leadership. We will never have any idea how it could have turned out if we just had a President who would wear a mask on tv consistently. Or didn't actively turn it into a political issue. The Europeans have mostly opened their schools though they may have localized restrictions. They opened their restaurants but when they trended in the wrong direction they took action. It isn't the people...it's the leadership layer that is broken here.

I also think Kurth and Little Raven are right. Most of the governors were watching hospitals. That was the only thing they were medically trying to protect while giving a bit of lip service to other stuff.

Well I hope so. Hospitals are probably the most important source of 'metrics' for a health crisis. And the states that have managed it the best used a variety of metrics to manage this. There is a clear divide between who managed it well and who didn't and it is heavily tied to party alignment here. That is way more relevant in my mind.

If you do a terrible job preparing for the test, you fail. That’s been our Coronavirus plan and result.

Austerity is an interesting way to think about what’s coming next. We’re all going to have to sacrifice, rather than just the disposable. Many with assets are terrified about Biden. Of course, Trump ran up the bill and now it’s due — in money and blood.

Little Raven wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:41 am

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:55 amForgive me for being confused.

All I've been saying is that non-lockdowns do not eliminate the virus. They slow it down. That's all they do, and that's all we should expect them to do. If you want to actually eliminate the thing, you have to do a hell of a lot more than just restrict things. You need contact tracing, enforced quarantines, and lots and lots of tests. We don't do any of that. (in fairness, only a few countries in the world actually do)

I'm noticing a lot of people who are frustrated that they have given up so much over the last 6 months, and this frustration often manifests as a feeling that the not-lockdown failed. After all, the numbers are worse than ever! Why did we bother doing all that?

Right but again this feels a bit oversimplified. I think that ascribing it to the lockdowns not working is reductive. I'd say many are feeling hopeless because we are just out of control.

That's an understandable feeling, but I don't think it's fair. The numbers were always going to get bad again in the fall. The Smooves of the world have been saying that all summer. The not-lockdown slowed COVID down, but it was never going to get rid of it. Not here, and not in Europe.

I'll wait to see if Smoove_B weighs in on this but I have a suspicion that putting too much weight on seasonality is potentially misleading.

malchior wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:55 am I'll wait to see if Smoove_B weighs in on this but I have a suspicion that putting too much weight on seasonality is potentially misleading.

It will push gatherings back indoors; especially with the holidays.