(Almost) Simple WW Game #2 - Game Over

[Austin]

 theohall 
 


Probably wind up voting for bb in the end.

[theohall]

 theohall 
 


Probably wind up voting for bb in the end.

Nice job.... You could at least vote for the other wolf.

[Austin]

 theohall 
 


Probably wind up voting for bb in the end.

Nice job.... You could at least vote for the other wolf.

Tell me who your partner is and I will vote for him first.

[theohall]

 theohall 
 


Probably wind up voting for bb in the end.

Nice job.... You could at least vote for the other wolf.

Tell me who your partner is and I will vote for him first.

I think you mean your partner, Qantaga.

[theohall]

It's really simple.

Austin, bb2112, or Qantaga. So you vote for me. That is brilliant, Austin.

[Austin]

That is brilliant, Austin.

Now, that is a rare statement!

[RMC]

PM from Unagi asking to help lynch trig:

Qantaga: Yes
theo: Yes
bb: ???
Austin: ???
Remus: ???
RMC: ???
Mr Bubbles: ???

I did not get one... unless I deleted it..

Here is the only PM I got from Unagi:

Alrighty, I've never actually played in a PM game before.

I'm interested in your input - what, if anything, do you plan to do with these PMs?

I am thinking we need to choose between BB and Austin.

I am a little ashamed, as I really thought NC was the most likely wolf in the trio.

BB seems like a villager, and Austin seems like a wolf..And the entire Theohall thing, he always seems like a wolf to me, and rarely is in the games I have played with him...So I am going with the odds and will say Theo is not a wolf.

So with that said, I am horrible at 'reading between the lines' so I am going to say:

 BB2112 
 

[Qantaga]

theo, let's see if you are interested in discussion, or just on on another of your myopic crusades.

- First:

We had two very experienced and now dead villagers point out Austin loves to do things out-of-the-box when playing a regular basic wolf. What Austin did is a classic wolf move of his in both of their opinions. Why not acknowledge the experienced opinions?

You are claiming that every experienced player is always correct in their assessment of other players?

As a matter of fact, your first expert trig, had a bigger candidate than Austin on Day 1:

Unagi--at least for me right now--can't be moved any higher.

Should I hang I'll come back villager, and then the others can decide as they will on Austin and Unagi.

Unagi couldn't possibly have played this more poorly and stupidly if he's a Villager. If he's a Wolf, kudos.

How did that work out for trig's experienced opinion?

Then, your other expert Newcastle did not even vote on Austin Day 3 when, by your (theo) logic, he should have been all over Austin. He voted for RMC and himself.

So, betting the game on Newcastle and trig's experienced opinions seems marginal, at best.

- Next:

You accuse me of:

It is almost like, yet again, someone finding excuses to keep Austin-wolf alive.

which very conveniently discounts what I said at the start of the day:

However, there are two exceptions:

1. As theo points out, that is a very suspicious exchange where "Austin told Lassr to wait" during the initial PM play.

2. I still think Lassrwolf would have jumped at the chance to be the killing vote on an Austinwolf. However, there is an event that I forgot to factor in to that evaluation. Unagi had sent out a series of PMs asking (please) to help lynch trig. I got one. A couple other players have mentioned getting one. I wonder if Unagi sent one to Lassr. If Lassr did get a PM from Unagi asking for help lynching trig, would he rather (A) gain favor with Unagi by helping lynch trig (whom Lassr knew would be a miss anyway) or (B) lynch Austinwolf and gain at least a fair amount of "I told you so" credit?

- Next:

So how many times is Austin going to be a suspect before we test him?

Don't you think we're past the "test" phase? If we miss on a test, the game swings very much in the wolves' favor. All it takes is one erroneous vote by a villager over the course of two days to secure a wolf victory, if we miss today.

- Next:

Q catching Lassr, which may have just been something convenient to protect himself in the future.

I not only called out Lassr on his lie, but I also built a case against him on Day 1. I have certainly cast votes on fellow wolves in previous games, but (if you are truly looking at the game objectively) do you really think I would have called Lassr out on a lie and built such a case against him on Day 1, if I really was one of his partners?

- Lastly:

Question for Qantaga: WHY DON'T YOU WANT US TO LYNCH AUSTIN? . You have asked us not to lynch him all game, yet we were supposed to re-evaluate if he did not die on Night One. Well, he has not died on any night and all of your evaluations claim he is a villager. Shouldn't that tell us something??

As for why Austin has survived each night, I'm stunned that you even give this any value, at all. Austin has been a suspect since Day 1. Why would the wolves kill him, since he is guaranteed to remain a point of contention and, thus, a possible lynch, when they can kill another player that they suspect will not garner enough suspicion to get lynched?

I have never said that I don't want us to lynch Austin. I have merely offered my own interpretations of how the game has played out.

If you think Austin is a wolf, then vote to lynch him. What I'm asking everyone to do is not vote casually. Vote as if you're willing to risk the entire game on the results, because that's the point we're at today.

[Qantaga]

PM from Unagi asking to help lynch trig:

Qantaga: Yes
theo: Yes
bb: ???
Austin: No
Remus: ???
RMC: No
Mr Bubbles: ???

[theohall]

In case you haven't noticed, Q, I have voted to lynch Austin. It's nice that you seem to ignore that you have kept asking us to test elsewhere besides Austin, not just once, but three separate times on three separate days.

Yes, you did make a case against Lassr. So? Don't wolves like to present things to protect themselves? I've done it and would not put it past you.

bb2112 or Austin have to be tested today, period. Austin is the better choice, IMO. Especially with Austin refusing to vote for bb2112. It makes bb2112 look like Austin's partner, which is probably Austin's gambit on this particular day.

Prove yourself, Q. Austin or bb2112. I doubt you vote for Austin at this stage in the game, because he appears to be a partner you are protecting.

Austin is a wolf hoping two villagers follow whichever vote he places so the other wolf can pile on. Surprised you are not seeing that. Remus West clearly did.

It's very interesting no one else is following my Austin vote - especially the two wolves, since they know one more villager vote kills Austin. Which makes me suspect him even more.

[Qantaga]

In case you haven't noticed, Q, I have voted to lynch Austin. It's nice that you seem to ignore that you have kept asking us to test elsewhere besides Austin, not just once, but three separate times on three separate days.

Seriously, theo, you are making a big leap trying to paint my personal observations and opinions as me "asking us to test elsewhere."

Yes, you did make a case against Lassr. So? Don't wolves like to present things to protect themselves? I've done it and would not put it past you.

So?

So, you are either:

(A) Not looking objectively at the events of this game, leading you to make poor decisions.

-or-

(B) You are being deliberately manipulative.

You chose to ignore my case against Lassr earlier when you said:

Nothing happened to Austin in the night. Lassr was outed by Unagi. So when should we have re-evaluated Austin? On Day Three, right? A short aside now. Beginning of Day Two - before Lassr has been outed. Guess who lists Lassr has his #1 evil? Yep. Qantaga. As if he got the info from a his brother wolf who had been PM'd. And he is still pushing the "don't lynch Austin" thing.

This is a complete fabrication on your part, as you conveniently left out my stance on Lassr on Day 1 and leads me to fear that (B) above is more likely than (A).

[Austin]

In case you haven't noticed, Q, I have voted to lynch Austin. It's nice that you seem to ignore that you have kept asking us to test elsewhere besides Austin, not just once, but three separate times on three separate days.

Seriously, theo, you are making a big leap trying to paint my personal observations and opinions as me "asking us to test elsewhere."

Yes, you did make a case against Lassr. So? Don't wolves like to present things to protect themselves? I've done it and would not put it past you.

So?

So, you are either:

(A) Not looking objectively at the events of this game, leading you to make poor decisions.

-or-

(B) You are being deliberately manipulative.

You chose to ignore my case against Lassr earlier when you said:

Nothing happened to Austin in the night. Lassr was outed by Unagi. So when should we have re-evaluated Austin? On Day Three, right? A short aside now. Beginning of Day Two - before Lassr has been outed. Guess who lists Lassr has his #1 evil? Yep. Qantaga. As if he got the info from a his brother wolf who had been PM'd. And he is still pushing the "don't lynch Austin" thing.

This is a complete fabrication on your part, as you conveniently left out my stance on Lassr on Day 1 and leads me to fear that (B) above is more likely than (A).

Welcome to my world.

[Qantaga]

Bubbles

Votes:

Day 1: Newcastle, Austin
Day 2: Newcastle, Lassr (after the "Lassr is a wolf" PMs)

No posts since this (aimed at Remus):

You dirty hairball.. You are barking up the wrong tree.

at the beginning of Day 3.

[Qantaga]

RMC

Votes:

Day 1: trig

Interestingly, he put the vote on trig very early, when trig said, "Obviously, I'm a wolf" in reference to the Empire Strikes Back game and he left it there all day, even with all the drama being played out Day 1. RMC was virtually silent that entire day (yes, I realize this is a PM game, so anyone with lots of RMC correspondence Day 1 feel free to enlighten us).

Day 2: no votes

He had a couple "slow down theo" posts and pointed at Newcastle and Austin, but that was really all he had of any substance.

There was an interesting back and forth between he and Lassr:

 RMC 
 


to banish the crickets once and for all...

I actually like this vote but wonder why no one wants to test Austin.

Something about RMC that doesn't sit right with me this game.

The fact I am a villager, and you are a wolf?

I think you got that backwards.

Day 3: Newcastle

He agrees with a post by Chaos that the wolf must be in the {bb,Austin,Newcastle} group and points at Newcastle and Austin again.

Day 4: bb

He has been pointing at Newcastle and Austin the entire game, but now reverses to bb in an "I'm always wrong, so I'm voting against my instincts" vote.
He has offered very little analysis over the course of the game.

[theohall]

Bubbles and RMC typically don't offer analysis or post much. This makes them not look out of the ordinary to me.

It still strikes me that while Qantaga has said Austin might be evil, he has consistently asked us not to vote for him and continues to do so. This has nothing to do with the Lassr posts, but purely Qantaga and how he is handling Austin.

Still no one dog-piling, eh?

I will NOT change my vote from Austin. You all go ahead and vote for someone else. Odds are the wolf-pile will wind up killing another villager.

[Remus West]

PM from Unagi asking to help lynch trig:

Qantaga: Yes
theo: Yes
bb: ???
Austin: No
Remus: ???
RMC: No
Mr Bubbles: ???

I do not remember getting one but I've since lost the first days PMs to deletion. I doubt he would have tried with me though as even in PM he spent a good deal of time being openly suspicious of me.

[Remus West]

IMO we are better off discussing Austin and bb2112 under the assumption that one of them must be a wolf. Trying to identify who another wolf may be based off of assumptions as to which of those two are wolves builds a house of cards we don't need right now.

theohall, I understand your wanting Austin to be lynched today. I'm seriously leaning that way right now but I also started the day seriously leaning bb2112. I agree with Qantaga's point that Austin surviving the night has been pretty much a foregone conclusion all game as he has been so frequently mentioned as a lynch target. That said, Austin's voting today really bothers me as it seems like a wolf effort to get us to spend a miss on anyone other than himself or bb2112 so that we have to go through this discussion tomorrow as well - because neither of those guys is dying in the night with the level of scrutiny they are under.

As for bb2112, I keep coming back to that opening post and how odd it feels to me. Other than that I really haven't got much on him. I was going to vote bb2112 today because I really thought Austin's opening gambit pointed more towards his being a villager than his being a clumsy wolf. bb2112 then became my top suspect by default mostly.

So with Austin voting me then you (with the caveat that he'd probably vote bb2112 in the end) he just seems off to me. I'm trying to wait until more people share their thoughts so I can get a larger view before voting.

[Remus West]

Deadline is Wednesday, July 11 at Noon Central Time.

One last thing, theo. You mention Qantaga casting the final vote on Newcastle.......we still have time here too. Lets use it instead of forcing a rushed vote.

[theohall]

Deadline is Wednesday, July 11 at Noon Central Time.

One last thing, theo. You mention Qantaga casting the final vote on Newcastle.......we still have time here too. Lets use it instead of forcing a rushed vote.

OK. Austin's play in combination with Qantaga's apparent refusal to even vote for him while repeatedly asking us to vote for someone else really stands out. If it were just Austin's play or just Qantaga's play, I would probably be fine with a bb2112 vote. The combination, however, really stands out upon re-reading the thread. This makes me stuck on Austin today.

Go on and discuss. Probably won't get much out of RMC and Mr Bubbles. What does bb2112 have to say? He'd better be on an Austin crusade or something smells even fishier than the Qantaga stuff. Everyone else has spoken.

[Qantaga]

PM from Unagi asking to help lynch trig:

Qantaga: Yes
theo: Yes
bb: ???
Austin: No
Remus: No
RMC: No
Mr Bubbles: ???

[Austin]

Go on and discuss. Probably won't get much out of RMC and Mr Bubbles. What does bb2112 have to say? He'd better be on an Austin crusade or something smells even fishier than the Qantaga stuff. Everyone else has spoken.

Clearly, Austin, bb, and Q are our remaining wolves.

Unagi was leaning RMC and Remus iirc, and he was stellar last game.

[bb2112]

Ok. I have a little bit of reading to do. I've been out of it for the last 2 days with only brief connectivity. I tried catching up a little last night, but I will have to finish this morning and then I will give my thoughts.

[bb2112]

Unofficial Vote Count
Majority is 4.

Against Thoehall (1): Austin
Against Austin (1): Theohall
Against bb2112 (1): RMC

No Votes (3): Bubbles, bb2112, Remus, Qantaga

Wanted to get this out of the way so I understand where the voting is.

[bb2112]

PM from Unagi asking to help lynch trig:

Qantaga: Yes
theo: Yes
bb: ???
Austin: No
Remus: No
RMC: No
Mr Bubbles: ???

Not formally. Not like some of the others did. Unagi and I were in contact through most of this time period and we traded some PM's about Trig and what was going on in the thread.

When this was happening we agreed that Austin was probably innocent. I know at the time I told him I would rather put NC to the test, but it was starting to get a couple of days from the deadline and Trig and Austin had the most votes on them. I said in the thread that I would vote for one of the top vote getters. Since I didn't want to vote Austin on day 1, I voted Trig. It was more of a default vote. That and voting off someone that was getting belligerent, which was getting on my nerves.

[bb2112]

I posted in my earlier message that I though there were 2 wolves in this grouping: Remus West, Austin, Qantaga, and Mr. Bubbles.

I PM'd Q right after and told him that I didn't really believe he was a wolf, I just wanted to see who would bite. Although I don't know this for sure, but I believe by the PM's we have exchanged and by his posts, that he is probably the least wolfy of anyone left alive. Of course, that is just my opinion.

Our two wolves are in this grouping of three, IMO: Austin, bb2112, and Qantaga.

I think we can all agree, at best there is probably only one wolf among Austin and myself. That would mean by Theo's logic, he is convinced Q is a wolf.

Apologies for the walls of text.

The gist of it.

1) Qantaga claims Lassr was taking the same approach to Austin as Newcastle and triggercut, which is not true. Newcastle and triggercut were adamant that it was a wolf-play by Austin. Lassr started out that way, but shifted, while never once accusing Austin other than threats of maybe accusing him once.
2) By the end of Day One, Lassr was clearly agreeing with Austin.
3) Qantaga has consistently asked us not to lynch Austin, even when he has claimed we should re-evaluate Austin's play after Night One. His re-evaluation has been more of the same - "Austin is a villager and we should keep analyzing his play" crap while lynching someone else.

Austin needs to go, now. If he comes up wolf, Qantaga is next.

I highly doubt Q would be defending Austin this hard if both are wolves. That would mean if one when down, then so would the other. Of course this could be reverse psychology, but I believe at best, only one is a wolf.

[bb2112]

The above analysis kind of pains me because I was pretty sure Theo was good, just misguided. Now I am not sure any more. I was really hoping that Mr. Bubbles, Remus or Austin would jump at the bait.

[bb2112]

BB seems like a villager, and Austin seems like a wolf..And the entire Theohall thing, he always seems like a wolf to me, and rarely is in the games I have played with him...So I am going with the odds and will say Theo is not a wolf.

So with that said, I am horrible at 'reading between the lines' so I am going to say:

 BB2112 
 

As I said, I think RMC is good, but just misguided.

Dude, I am not a wolf. But I understand the vote. What bothers me is we only have one free miss left. After that we need to be 100% on hitting wolves.

[bb2112]

Deadline is Wednesday, July 11 at Noon Central Time.

One last thing, theo. You mention Qantaga casting the final vote on Newcastle.......we still have time here too. Lets use it instead of forcing a rushed vote.

I agree. We have over 48 hours. I say everyone lists their top three suspects. I think this will give us the best indication of how we would like to proceed. I've had some pretty good success with this in past games, so please indulge me.

Theo, unless you want to change yours (which there is no problem if you want to), I am going to take your list from prior posts.

bb2112 - Austin, Remus, Mr. Bubbles
Theohall - Austin, bb2112, Qantaga
Qantaga -
Mr. Bubbles -
RMC -
Remus West -
Austin -

[Mr Bubbles]

Ok been gone for the last few days. I'll start to post my suspicions in a few hours.

[Austin]

bb2112, RMC or Remus, theohall

@RMC, why did you not have anything to say when you picked up my PM with info from the seer?

[RMC]

bb2112, RMC or Remus, theohall

@RMC, why did you not have anything to say when you picked up my PM with info from the seer?

It was during the workday, so I read it and was thinking of a response. And then by the time I got back from meetings and such(and I think I went home) it was already a done deal on who was lynched. More a timing thing than anything.

[Qantaga]

I posted the first part of this above when I was looking at RMC.

Look who else got involved in this little pokefest:

 RMC 
 


to banish the crickets once and for all...

I actually like this vote but wonder why no one wants to test Austin.

Something about RMC that doesn't sit right with me this game.

The fact I am a villager, and you are a wolf?

That kind of reply makes me want to test you, but Austin should go first.

[Qantaga]

I say everyone lists their top three suspects. I think this will give us the best indication of how we would like to proceed. I've had some pretty good success with this in past games, so please indulge me.

I'll be happy to post my top three, but I need to think it through a little more.

My problem is that the most likely scenario is at odds with my suspect list. The most likely scenario is that there is a wolf (or two) among bb and Austin. However, I have been inclined to see them both as good so far.

I can make a stronger case for an evil Austin than I can for an evil bb. Yet, I can also make a stronger case for a good Austin than for a good bb.

In the less likely scenario, where neither bb or Austin are wolves:

- RMC and theo are pinging me strongly as wolves.
- Remus is pinging me strongly as good. However, if neither bb or Austin are wolves, then I have to give Remus a strong consideration as wolf, as he would seem the most likely person to uncover Unagi without direct contact.
- I'm leaning good with Bubbles because I really hope that a wolf wouldn't just go dark (doesn't seem very sporting, but I suppose all is fair in love and WW).

I'll try to list a top three by early evening.

[theohall]

Go on and discuss. Probably won't get much out of RMC and Mr Bubbles. What does bb2112 have to say? He'd better be on an Austin crusade or something smells even fishier than the Qantaga stuff. Everyone else has spoken.

Clearly, Austin, bb, and Q are our remaining wolves.

Unagi was leaning RMC and Remus iirc, and he was stellar last game.

And yet he was completely wrong on triggercut in this game. Let's metion everything, oh wily wolf. You still should have died Day One.

[Austin]

Go on and discuss. Probably won't get much out of RMC and Mr Bubbles. What does bb2112 have to say? He'd better be on an Austin crusade or something smells even fishier than the Qantaga stuff. Everyone else has spoken.

Clearly, Austin, bb, and Q are our remaining wolves.

Unagi was leaning RMC and Remus iirc, and he was stellar last game.

And yet he was completely wrong on triggercut in this game. Let's metion everything, oh wily wolf. You still should have died Day One.

This rings wrong. I am a wolf, but I was wrong on trig? This flows very wolfy. I am headed out the the maghadigadi pans tomorrow and will be there for the night. I think my vote is fine and will likely leave it where it is.


Edit: read that wrong. He meant Unagi was wrong... Will rethink before tomorrow.

[Remus West]

Go on and discuss. Probably won't get much out of RMC and Mr Bubbles. What does bb2112 have to say? He'd better be on an Austin crusade or something smells even fishier than the Qantaga stuff. Everyone else has spoken.

Clearly, Austin, bb, and Q are our remaining wolves.

Unagi was leaning RMC and Remus iirc, and he was stellar last game.

And yet he was completely wrong on triggercut in this game. Let's metion everything, oh wily wolf. You still should have died Day One.

I think the more interesting aspect of that is it has already been pointed out that triggercut and Newcastle both thought Austin looked Evil and we were then given the line about the experianced players not always being right. Was it Q or Austin who said that ? Need to go find it.

[Remus West]

It was Q (on this page up above) but it was more a "why would we trust Newcastle or triggercut from beyond the grave when their insights while alive were not accurate type comment. So basically, never mind. I find it much less interesting now.

[theohall]

It was Q (on this page up above) but it was more a "why would we trust Newcastle or triggercut from beyond the grave when their insights while alive were not accurate type comment. So basically, never mind. I find it much less interesting now.

Well, nobody is 100% right in these except the wolves or an exceptionally lucky Seer. However, when multiple folks recognize the way a player is playing and have seen it before, it is worth considering. This is why I find Lassr backing off on Austin so informative. A non-informed Lassr would never have backed off of Austin on Day One the way Lassr did. Qantaga even pointed out Lassr questioned Austin's play. IMO, Lassr had to do it publicly to protect himself, or he would be suspected. He then followed other's leads so as never to actually have to vote for his teammate. Lassr's essential inaction irt Austin, IMO, is what led Unagi to scan Lassr.

Combine this with Qantaga repeatedly suggesting that Austin might be evil, but let us please test someone else....

It looks really fishy.

My only concern now is bb2112 and his actions. If he is not onboard with testing Austin, he could very well be one of the two remaining wolves. I don't know. Right now, it looks like Q and Austin to me, still.

I find it funny both bb2112 and Austin say each other needs to be tested, yet neither seem to be willing to vote for each other.

[bb2112]

My only concern now is bb2112 and his actions. If he is not onboard with testing Austin, he could very well be one of the two remaining wolves. I don't know. Right now, it looks like Q and Austin to me, still.

I find it funny both bb2112 and Austin say each other needs to be tested, yet neither seem to be willing to vote for each other.

Slow down there, Hoss. I will cast my vote tomorrow, plenty of time before the deadline. I am hoping everyone will give a top three before then. So far we are three of seven.

[Remus West]

Why a top three? What does that serve? Are you looking to see who you can get lynched tomorrow?

More seriously though, why a top 3?