Octopus Overlords

Illinois governor closes K-12 3/17-3/31. That prempts Chicago mayor so fun upcoming....



Also, went to the range after work. Usually on Friday I'm the only one there before 5. Today, tons of people buying ammo and guns. Keep in mind, this is a way overpriced (due to taxes) gun shop in Cook county. Almost no one buys ammo there except for when they rent on the on range. Usually see one or two people seriously looking to buy a gun.

Latest reports seem to indicate you can shoot Covid-19 out of people.

hepcat wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:10 pm Latest reports seem to indicate you can shoot Covid-19 out of people.

Can't have a COVID fatality if it winds up in the gun death column.

How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

We cancelled our chicken pox party, sadly.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

This is the opposite of social distancing. When your kid plays with another kid, your child is actually playing with everyone in that house and their kid is actually playing with everyone in your house. Add that then to all the people those people interacted with in the last 3+ days and keep going...

1 lawyer. 11 cases.

In theory if both families were completely isolated and had zero interactions with outsiders, playdates could work. But if either parent is still going to work, if random family members are dropping by, etc... then the "circle" has been penetrated and potential exposure can occur.

I know I sound like a lunatic but I've done enough contact tracing during smaller (much smaller!) outbreaks to understand how quickly this all gets out of hand.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:48 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

This is the opposite of social distancing. When your kid plays with another kid, your child is actually playing with everyone in that house and their kid is actually playing with everyone in your house. Add that then to all the people those people interacted with in the last 3+ days and keep going...

1 lawyer. 11 cases.

In theory if both families were completely isolated and had zero interactions with outsiders, playdates could work. But if either parent is still going to work, if random family members are dropping by, then the "circle" has been penetrated and potential exposure can occur.

I know I sound like a lunatic but I've done enough contact tracing during smaller outbreaks to understand how quickly this all gets out of hand.

Which points towards zero playdates at all, right? I think that's where we're headed, we're just wrapping our heads around it. Part of it is that we live in a triple-decker house, in the second floor / middle unit, and we're close to the family that lives directly upstairs. Seems weird to isolate ourselves even from the family upstairs, but seems like we need to?

Part of it is also that prior to today a lot of what I've been reading was focused on just avoiding large groups, unless you're in a risk group (e.g., old people). We're not, but seems like we need to shut everything down anyway.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:53 pm Which points towards zero playdates at all, right? I think that's where we're headed, we're just wrapping our heads around it. Part of it is that we live in a triple-decker house, in the second floor / middle unit, and we're close to the family that lives directly upstairs. Seems weird to isolate ourselves even from the family upstairs, but seems like we need to?

My professional (non-medical) opinion is yes. In truth it's probably overall a low risk activity.

Part of it is also that prior to today a lot of what I've been reading was focused on just avoiding large groups, unless you're in a risk group (e.g., old people). We're not, but seems like we need to shut everything down anyway.

Avoiding large groups and close contact (prolonged, closer than 6') is a solid plan. And assuming everyone is young and healthy the overall risk is lower, but certainly not zero. Again, non-medical advice, but if both families truly stay home bound and aren't interacting with outsiders *and* you're both free of illness for 14+ days from the time of voluntary quarantine then *in theory* you can all freely intermingle and begin to repopulate the planet. I mean, uh have play dates. At some point the risk might outweigh the mental anguish of being homebound for 3+ weeks. I'd likely be inclined to save intermingling as a "break glass" moment, not a "we're just getting started" moment.

It absolutely sounds aggressive. But I can guarantee if anyone in your two units gets sick and that sickness involves a doctor visit, both families would be in for a medical nightmare.

Oh, and in case you were wondering how focused Trump is on all this:

President Donald Trump on Friday sent a note to supporters that included a chart showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average dramatically rising roughly at the time he began a news conference declaring a national emergency over coronavirus. The President signed the chart.

The note, which was also sent to some members of Congress, included screenshots of television coverage of the stock market closing much higher than Thursday.

"The President would like to share the attached image with you, and passes along the following message: 'From opening of press conference, biggest day in stock market history!' " read the note, a copy of which was obtained by CNN from a source with familiar with it.

He is genuinely a sociopath.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

We've canceled poker at our home. Poker players sit around a table, 10 at a time, each with their own 22" of circumference, while passing cards and chips around to each other many times an hour. It sounds like the perfect spawning ground for passing germs of all kinds. I've also ended my attendance at all live poker events. I was unsuccessful in trying to get the rest of the Thursday night crew to see the value in social distancing, but partially through my efforts, I was able to get a friend's Saturday game axed.

My wife gets home tomorrow (hopefully) from a week in Massachusetts which followed the tail end of last week and all weekend in Vegas. In each of those locations she's been standing in front of groups measured by the dozen for hours at a time. My effective social distancing goes the other way tomorrow. However, we see eye-to-eye with regards to the value of additional distancing, so our near-term outlook appears to be infrequent trips to the local grocer, and some small interaction with people delivering items to our front door. Our daughter who lives about 30 minutes away has a service job that puts her in constant contact with new customers every five minutes or so. She sensitive to our plight (my respiratory issues, MHS's immunosuppressant status) and intends to stay far away. Of course, she's also on the immunosuppressant train (to help keep her lupus in check), but her expectations are within the context of being a 26-year old.

I'm not sure what would actually happen the moment any of the 3 of us gets identified as having COVID-19. We can do some small amounts of isolation within our home (sleeping areas and bathroom use). We do have an urgent care office within walking distance from our home (though we've only ever driven there the eight or so times it's been used since moving to the area in June 2018).

Social distancing means distancing. All interactions come at a high price. Were I to see a neighbor at the mailbox, I'd give them 6' of clearance.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

I think it depends on why you're keeping your distance. Is it to protect yourself and your family? If so, no playdates once isolation begins. Is it to help curtail the spread among the public ala 'Flatten the curve'? Then I think playdates are okay since you and your family aren't leaving the building. What the other family does is out of your control. If they get infected by you and then one of them goes out and spreads it, that's not your fault.

Im not doing anything different.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 pm Oh, and in case you were wondering how focused Trump is on all this:

President Donald Trump on Friday sent a note to supporters that included a chart showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average dramatically rising roughly at the time he began a news conference declaring a national emergency over coronavirus. The President signed the chart.

The note, which was also sent to some members of Congress, included screenshots of television coverage of the stock market closing much higher than Thursday.

"The President would like to share the attached image with you, and passes along the following message: 'From opening of press conference, biggest day in stock market history!' " read the note, a copy of which was obtained by CNN from a source with familiar with it.

He is genuinely a sociopath.

Its not his fault when something goes wrong but its always him when anything goes right.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

Another good Medium post

2. No kid playdates, parties, sleepovers, or families/friends visiting each other’s houses and apartments.
This sounds extreme because it is. We are trying to create distance between family units and between individuals. It may be particularly uncomfortable for families with small children, kids with differential abilities or challenges, and for kids who simply love to play with their friends. But even if you choose only one friend to have over, you are creating new links and possibilities for the type of transmission that all of our school/work/public event closures are trying to prevent. The symptoms of coronavirus take four to five days to manifest themselves. Someone who comes over looking well can transmit the virus. Sharing food is particularly risky — I definitely do not recommend that people do so outside of their family.
We have already taken extreme social measures to address this serious disease — let’s not actively co-opt our efforts by having high levels of social interaction at people’s houses instead of at schools or workplaces. Again — the wisdom of early and aggressive social distancing is that it can flatten the curve above, give our health system a chance to not be overwhelmed, and eventually may reduce the length and need for longer periods of extreme social distancing later (see what has transpired in Italy and Wuhan). We need to all do our part during these times, even if it means some discomfort for a while.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

I'm already socially distant so nothing really changes. I won't give up my weekly restaurant night as long as restaurants are still open, but I might bring some sanitary wipes with me (Wife bought a whole big box of those). Our night out is the high point of the week. I'm willing to die for my weekly hamburger. Or kill, as it might be.

I'll see hepcat to play some games (definitely a disease vector), then likely having 3 kids over on Sunday for a few hours.

Trump said Tuesday he'd direct the IRS to act, but still no announcement. Until the IRS announces the extended date for tax returns, Trump isn't seriously not doing everything in his power. With the tax season clock ticking, there is no way for me to stop working.

The fear is real, and increasing my workload as an estate planner. Had a meeting today with a client signing an updated Will/Trust before leaving to bunker down in his Mexico home for the next 30 days. At least my office is in a separate annex/entrance with 6 other firm attorneys and 2 staff. 4 older attorneys are rarely in the office anyway, and the staff will work from home starting Tuesday. The only one I'll likely see is the other estate attorney (we'll likely switch office days) and our paralegal. Our older assistant will be encouraged to stay home.

I'll be transporting an intubated, rule-out COVID-19 patient in the back of an ambulance for 30+ minutes. (They don't have it...our attending doc told us there hasn't been a kid under the age of 10 hospitalized IN THE WORLD with this yet and this one was very sick). I don't know the truth of that tho I have no reason to doubt them other than it sounds a bit fantastical. But we elected a reality TV show host as president so...stranger things have happened.

But 2 days ago we wouldn't have even mentioned coronavirus, today it's our reason to transport. The next 2 months are going to suck suck suck. There is really no chance I don't get this thing and while I'm young enough and healthy enough to not really have to worry...


On the plus side my oldest boy is staying his 'extra spring break week' in Cali with the grandparents (he's been there since last Sat) so we don't have to worry about entertaining him for the next 10 days.

Life is fixing to change.

I'm being kept socially distant because all my weekend activities are canceled. I have something like 60 flat track derby games to officiate on the calendar over the next few months. Number one (number 3 of the year) is canceled today. My next big event is beginning of April in Tucson and then several in Philly and then a huge event scheduled for beginning May in Eugene, OR. All are obviously at high risk of cancelation.

This happens to be the start of the traditional competitive season which usually runs until June 30th. Spring is tournament season for me. I am expecting to see them shift the June 30 deadline for games back 1 month or potentially have to cancel world playoffs this year. Post season events are complex and changing dates at big venues is difficult.

That said many teams suspended all practices even (contact sport and all) so ramping back up is going to be challenging. I'm going to have to find alternative low impact ways to stay active over the next couple of months. I usually skate 2 or 3 practices a week so this is a huge activity level change.

Paragons of leadership.


https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonLeopold ... 3098486785

You would think, however, that if anyone on the planet should be treated with an abundance of caution of having this virus, it would be the POTUS. You've got senators that were just in the same room with a positive individual that are self-quarantining.

Please don't put me in a position where I have to point to Ted Cruz and Matt Gaetz as positive role models.

It could be worse. Our travel ban exempt UK partner has a strategy to infect the population to build herd immunity. Cool idea Boris.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:43 pm How much "social distancing" is everyone doing? No school for the time being, so just wondering what to allow in terms of playdates for the kids and the like.

We're going to the extreme because our house includes my MIL (80) and FIL (90 and immune-compromised). Everyone's jobs and schools have been cancelled, and we have stocked up.

I imagine there will still be expeditions to stores and such, but they'll be treated under airlock protocols. We aren't having people over, but fortunately the kids are at an age where they happily socialize online.

One thing to remember is that you can still go outside. "Social" distancing still lets you walk the dog in the park and down by the river, and it's warm enough again for bike rides.

Holman wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:25 amOne thing to remember is that you can still go outside. "Social" distancing still lets you walk the dog in the park and down by the river, and it's warm enough again for bike rides.

Just keep Arrested Development in mind (+ 6')



Here's an excellent article in Newsweek, written by a doctor in Western Europe. Probably too long for social media, but it should be shared far and wide.

Put aside statistics. Here is how it looks in practice. Most of my childhood friends are now doctors working in north Italy. In Milan, in Bergamo, in Padua, they are having to choose between intubating a 40-year-old with two kids, a 40-year old who is fit and healthy with no co-morbidities, and a 60-year-old with high blood pressure, because they don't have enough beds. In the hallway, meanwhile, there are another 15 people waiting who are already hardly breathing and need oxygen.

The army is trying to bring some of them to other regions with helicopters but it's not enough: the flow is just too much, too many people are getting sick at the same time.

...

But until we're past the peak, the only solution is to impose social restrictions.

And if your government is hesitating, these restrictions are up to you. Stay put. Do not travel. Cancel that family reunion, the promotion party and the big night out. This really sucks, but these are special times. Don't take risks. Do not go to places where you are more than 20 people in the same room. It's not safe and it's not worth it.

...

My personal as well as professional view: we all have a duty to stay put, except for very special reasons, like, you go to work because you work in healthcare, or you have to save a life and bring someone to hospital, or go out to shop for food so you can survive. But when we get to this stage of a pandemic, it's really important not to spread the bug. The only thing that helps is social restriction. Ideally, the government should issue that instruction and provide a financial fallback—compensate business owners, ease the financial load on everyone as much as possible and reduce the incentive of risking your life or the lives of others just to make ends meet. But if your government or company is slow on the uptake, don't be that person. Take responsibility. For all but essential movement, restrict yourself.

This is epidemiology 101. It really sucks. It is extreme—but luckily, we don't have pandemics of this violence every year. So sit it out. Stay put. Don't travel. It is absolutely not worth it.

It's the civic and moral duty of every person, everywhere, to take part in the global effort to reduce this threat to humanity. To postpone any movement or travel that are not vitally essential, and to spread the disease as little as possible. Have your fun in June, July and August when this—hopefully—is over. Stay safe. Good luck.

Bronx campus remains open after teacher apparently tests positive for coronavirus

Really, really stupid not to close NYC schools (and I mean all of them, not just this one)

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:56 amReally, really stupid not to close NYC schools (and I mean all of them, not just this one)

I get it - and I wouldn't want to be Mayor de Blasio, right now however this is the unfortunate public health scenario where the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few; those schools should be closed. Ideally they can figure out how to address those ~113k homeless kids in some meaningful way. Tough, tough decisions are coming.

It's the civic and moral duty of every person, everywhere, to take part in the global effort to reduce this threat to humanity.

Good luck with that message in the US. If you can't fight it with conventional or nuclear weapons, fuck it. We'll provide market stimulus.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:04 am

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:56 amReally, really stupid not to close NYC schools (and I mean all of them, not just this one)

I get it - and I wouldn't want to be Mayor de Blasio, right now however this is the unfortunate public health scenario where the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few; those schools should be closed. Ideally they can figure out how to address those ~113k homeless kids in some meaningful way. Tough, tough decisions are coming.

If you really can't do it another way, then open it only for those specific kids, with a minimal staff to babysit them.

(or hell, turn some schools into a shelter for those specific kids)

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:15 am

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:04 am

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:56 amReally, really stupid not to close NYC schools (and I mean all of them, not just this one)

I get it - and I wouldn't want to be Mayor de Blasio, right now however this is the unfortunate public health scenario where the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few; those schools should be closed. Ideally they can figure out how to address those ~113k homeless kids in some meaningful way. Tough, tough decisions are coming.

If you really can't do it another way, then open it only for those specific kids, with a minimal staff to babysit them.

(or hell, turn some schools into a shelter for those specific kids)

That's a bad look. Poor homeless kids stuck in covid petri dishes while all the other kids are under the recommended standard.


113K homeless kids (Jesus Fing Christ) is a core failing, not an unfortunate barrier in the rare instance of pandemics.

My current actions are to lock my wife in our bedroom and my son in his. Lock is on the outside so I'm not concerned with escapes. I am currently in the process of building a small airlock to hand them food and drink. The next step is to build out the plumbing and give them a toilet in each room (TP is going to be rationed of course. I will need most of it for bartering.) I have 10 military-grade hazmat suits and 5 pallets of ammo on delivery from Amazon today. I'm also looking into one of those whole house isolation things. I have an order for a portable medical center, but the doctors and pathologists that come with it are on backorder.


But seriously, we weren't really planning on extreme social distancing especially since my wife (hopefully) has surgery this week and will be out of work for a while. We had plans to do a bunch of stuff since I will be taking off for some of it to help her out.
But now, my county is slowly going to full lockdown mode.
First AMC says they are limiting seating to 50% capacity only, then my county raises and closes ALL theatres (including for plays and whatnot) and cancels any large events indefinitely.
We have a nearby mall called the American Dream. I think it's supposed to be the largest or 2nd largest in the US. It's been getting built for ages now and they have slowly opened some of their large attractions (indoor amusement park, ski area, ice skating rink, etc.. and some more things were being planned to open in April including some restaurants and regular stores now (The whole thing wasn't planned on being open until the end of the year or something)
They have now announced that the whole mal will be shut down starting Monday.
We have another big mall near us, the Garden Stae Plaza, but I haven't heard anything about them closing yet.
One of our favorite buffets has closed.
Some other restaurants are closed and most stores are running very low on everything. Not sure if it was a coincidence or something, but some guy was walking out of Walmart with 4 large screen TV's. I guess he's getting backups in case his dies during our inevitable 7-year quarantine.
So it is looking like our social distancing is being forced on us. I'm ok with it as long as my wife gets her surgery this week (It's hand/wrist surgery for something where her bones have shifted and are rubbing against each other causing her a lot of pain). If something happened where we were stuck in the house, we have PLENTY to do. Lots of shows/movies to catch up on and TONS of games to play and mini's to paint.
We are planning on stocking up on some more food like tuna and whatnot (We should really have that anyway in case of any sort of disaster) and we did stock up on some extra TP (It doesn't go bad and the stores have been running out with some of them saying they don't even know when it will be restocked so better to have it and not need it and when this blows over, we will still need TP).
So we are stocking up sensibly, but not to the extent of Full Zombie Apocalypse Mode.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:20 am
That's a bad look. Poor homeless kids stuck in covid petri dishes while all the other kids are under the recommended standard.


113K homeless kids (Jesus Fing Christ) is a core failing, not an unfortunate barrier in the rare instance of pandemics.

That may be so (but it's hardly limited to NYC), but what's happening it Italy now isn't a good look, and that's where we're heading at full speed.

It's nice to know that at least some assholes trying to profit on this aren't succeeding

He Has 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them

Amazon cracked down on coronavirus price gouging. Now, while the rest of the world searches, some sellers are holding stockpiles of sanitizer and masks.

“It’s been a huge amount of whiplash,” he said. “From being in a situation where what I’ve got coming and going could potentially put my family in a really good place financially to ‘What the heck am I going to do with all of this?’”

How about donating it?

We're not going to extremes. The only elderly people we associate with are my in-laws, and we rarely see them except for holidays or birthdays. Most of our "forced" social gatherings have already been canceled or postponed - my daughter's soccer games, gymnastics, school gatherings, etc.

We went to the movies last night because we wanted to sneak one in just in case things got worse and they started to shut down. Not a big deal, it wasn't crowded and we sat away from everyone else.

Because we're trying to get our house ready for sale, we've been having a lot of stay home weekends anyway, so it's not going to be a huge disruption in the short term. We're using this time to pack and prep it for staging. My primary concern right now is how this is going to impact that, as I don't think people are going to be in the mood for open houses and I'm not sure I want a bunch of strangers traipsing through here right now anyway. On the other hand, we're under a contingency contract that we can't drag out too long, so it's just bad timing all around.

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:50 amHow about donating it?

I'm kinda hoping his state government seizes it under emergency powers, pays him bulk rate and then redistributes it to local fire, police, EMTs and hospitals that need them.

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:26 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:20 am
That's a bad look. Poor homeless kids stuck in covid petri dishes while all the other kids are under the recommended standard.


113K homeless kids (Jesus Fing Christ) is a core failing, not an unfortunate barrier in the rare instance of pandemics.

That may be so (but it's hardly limited to NYC), but what's happening it Italy now isn't a good look, and that's where we're heading at full speed.

I'm not against closing the schools, I'm against putting homeless kids in high-risk environments.

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:50 am It's nice to know that at least some assholes trying to profit on this aren't succeeding

I read that earlier. It was hilarious how much he was presenting himself as the victim after clearing out an entire state of emergency supplies then getting stuck with them.

As far as distancing goes, we have one elderly relative for whom we are the only source of support/care. She's high-risk (elderly, intermittent respiratory problems), and lives on her own. The only event I have scheduled in the next month is a D&D game in a week. I'm hesitant about it, but all three of the other players (a couple and a single) are insisting that we play. We'll see as it gets closer.

Folks -

Just a reminder that this is serious. I just got word that one of my oldest friends, 49 and in normal health, was hospitalized in Wisconsin for COVID-19 on Thursday, and was on a respirator at 100% oxygen as of Friday. There is progress today in that he is "responsive" and able to raise his hand and signal yes/no.

That should tell you where he was yesterday.

He was there on a trip from DC, where he lives, so I don't have any information on what this means as far as the location where he could have contracted it.

I'll share more information as I get it.

Reminds me of the locals complaining during our last drought that their lakefront boat docks were unusable.

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:50 am It's nice to know that at least some assholes trying to profit on this aren't succeeding

Also, I see that this guy specifically said that he was the one responsible for wiping out the entire sanitizer and disinfectant supply for most of his state, then went on to list his full name and home city, along with mentioning that his 'haul' was locked in his garage. And this is in Tennessee.

He may want to consider socially distancing himself to Mexico for a while.

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:00 pm The only event I have scheduled in the next month is a D&D game in a week. I'm hesitant about it, but all three of the other players (a couple and a single) are insisting that we play. We'll see as it gets closer.

Maybe you can play it online, since there are resources available to do that these days?

Social interaction is important, but we're going to have to be relying a lot more on online interaction.

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:00 pm

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:50 am It's nice to know that at least some assholes trying to profit on this aren't succeeding

I read that earlier. It was hilarious how much he was presenting himself as the victim after clearing out an entire state of emergency supplies then getting stuck with them.

As far as distancing goes, we have one elderly relative for whom we are the only source of support/care. She's high-risk (elderly, intermittent respiratory problems), and lives on her own. The only event I have scheduled in the next month is a D&D game in a week. I'm hesitant about it, but all three of the other players (a couple and a single) are insisting that we play. We'll see as it gets closer.

you should pass on the D&D for now. obviously (IMO). Unless you would be ok with these 3 people hanging with your elderly relative (for example).