Trumponomics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

[Zarathud]

The market tried to pretend Trump would be restrained and not unleash the leopards to eat America’s face. Instead, they’d get tax cut cake and ice cream. We were warned in three elections.

[Kraken]

We're down ~$40k so far, and we, too, want to retire this year.

I'm not good at math, so what was your starting balance before the $40k lose?

Divide the loss by the percent drop expressed as a decimal. So if the drop was 8%, then 40,000/0.08 = $500,000.

I was referencing this quarter's high; we went from $365k to $325k. Most of that was this week, but not all of it.

A couple of years ago we consulted a financial advisor to implement a "Just don't lose the money" investment strategy and protected most of our money in annuities* and cash. The returns are low but the risk is near-zero.

*On his advice, we cashed out our original annuities and bought new ones from a different firm with more attractive terms, taking a tidy profit in the process. That ridiculously slow and complicated process finally locked in last September or October because I insisted that it be sewed up tight before the election. Lest you think I'm a financial genius, my reasoning was exactly wrong; I thought that Harris would win and Dems would sweep Congress, and the MAGAts would riot.

[msduncan]

The market tried to pretend Trump would be restrained and not unleash the leopards to eat America’s face. Instead, they’d get tax cut cake and ice cream. We were warned in three elections.

It's Dire Wolves now. They're back.

And the reason the market tried to recover is that inevitably when the market drops like this there are some people who will buy. Doesn't mean it's done dropping by any means....but people buy low.

[msduncan]

Market could drop 80%

[Pyperkub]

Market could drop 80%

I don't buy 80, but yeah, I don't think the tough times have really started yet.

And while there may come a day when tariffs return manufacturing to the US, I don't see it bringing good jobs to the US, and quite possibly not in our lifetimes.

However, the service economy we have now still has a fair amount of value. Will we keep that value or will it be siphoned off?

As of now, siphoned off seems like the pattern.

[Victoria Raverna]

Ronald Reagan talked about tariffs:

[LordMortis]

If I had anyone left in my spheres that claimed to be Reagan lovers in support of this GOP administration, I'd share that but I'm not sure if/when there will be bridge rebuilt between me and them anymore.

[Holman]

Captains of industry are surely calculating whether it would be cheaper to return manufacturing to the US or simply to bribe Trump to give them tariff exemptions. That's where this goes.

[stessier]

Captains of industry are surely calculating whether it would be cheaper to return manufacturing to the US or simply to bribe Trump to give them tariff exemptions. That's where this goes.

This is what I don't understand - onshoring the manufacturing just locks in the "cost". The tariffs would need to remain in place forever and at a level that is greater than what American workers are paid. This isn't a win - it's just inflation. And that ignores the question of whether or not Americans actually want manufacturing jobs. Disclaimer: I work in manufacturing and while we have no trouble getting applicants, we have enormous trouble finding people willing to work the schedule with the attention to detail we need for the pay provided (which I am told marketing research shows is in the 75th percentile for our area). It's hard work, boring work - something tells me people aren't going to be so happy to do over the long term.

[LordMortis]

This is what I don't understand - onshoring the manufacturing just locks in the "cost". The tariffs would need to remain in place forever and at a level that is greater than what American workers are paid. This isn't a win - it's just inflation. a national sales tax/consumption tax designed to be regressive in nature shifting tax burden to the shrinking middle class and poor

[IceBear]

Well given how high the stock market is going today, I guess they are betting Trump will be right and everything will come up roses. I hate, hate, hate when bullies win

[LordMortis]

Well given how high the stock market is going today, I guess they are betting Trump will be right and everything will come up roses. I hate, hate, hate when bullies win

Don't trust volatility on the way down.

[msduncan]

If I had anyone left in my spheres that claimed to be Reagan lovers in support of this GOP administration, I'd share that but I'm not sure if/when there will be bridge rebuilt between me and them anymore.

Reagan is, was, and always will be my favorite President. That, along with Trump's post-loss behavior and actions, is precisely why I didn't vote for him this time.

[raydude]

Captains of industry are surely calculating whether it would be cheaper to return manufacturing to the US or simply to bribe Trump to give them tariff exemptions. That's where this goes.

There is the third option Empty promises. Like when Foxconn promised to create 13,000 jobs in Wisconsin in 2017 in exchange for tax credits and subsidies. That was something Trump kept touting when the deal was made, but it ended up creating only 1,000 jobs. All captains of industry have to do is promise him similarly large numbers of jobs (over 10,000 job! The yuugest jobs ever!), tell him it will take 4 years, and wait for him to forget and/or end his term.

[El Guapo]

Captains of industry are surely calculating whether it would be cheaper to return manufacturing to the US or simply to bribe Trump to give them tariff exemptions. That's where this goes.

This is what I don't understand - onshoring the manufacturing just locks in the "cost". The tariffs would need to remain in place forever and at a level that is greater than what American workers are paid. This isn't a win - it's just inflation. And that ignores the question of whether or not Americans actually want manufacturing jobs. Disclaimer: I work in manufacturing and while we have no trouble getting applicants, we have enormous trouble finding people willing to work the schedule with the attention to detail we need for the pay provided (which I am told marketing research shows is in the 75th percentile for our area). It's hard work, boring work - something tells me people aren't going to be so happy to do over the long term.

This is a key reason why Trump's tariffs can't lead to manufacturing on-shoring. Companies would have to be confident that the new tariffs are going to remain in place if they're going to make long-term decisions based on them. Various Trump people have already stated that Trump is going to negotiate the tariff levels. That, plus Trump's general volatility, means that no one can do that. So the almost inevitable result is that they won't increase domestic manufacturing. Really they will probably lead to delayed / canceled investment in general (here and abroad) while companies figure out what the hell the future will look like, which also materially increases the risk of a domestic and global recession.

[Hyena]

I'm not sure how viable this doomsday scenario is, or if he's even smart enough to pull it off, but how likely is it that he is causing all this turmoil to cause prices/stocks to plummet so his billionaire cronies can slip in and buy stuff on the low end. All it would take would be to then reverse or adjust the tariffs and voila, stock prices soar, doubling or tripling people's wealth in a matter of days. Hell, who knows, maybe even his... "international friends" can get in on it and invest as well. I understand it's a gamble, and while I don't think he himself is smart enough to conceive of it, there surely are others in his orbit of oligarchs that are, but I put nothing past those vile people.

[LordMortis]

I'm not sure how viable this doomsday scenario is, or if he's even smart enough to pull it off, but how likely is it that he is causing all this turmoil to cause prices/stocks to plummet so his billionaire cronies can slip in and buy stuff on the low end. All it would take would be to then reverse or adjust the tariffs and voila, stock prices soar, doubling or tripling people's wealth in a matter of days. Hell, who knows, maybe even his... "international friends" can get in on it and invest as well. I understand it's a gamble, and while I don't think he himself is smart enough to conceive of it, there surely are others in his orbit of oligarchs that are, but I put nothing past those vile people.

And this comes after short selling before the announcements. Is there a way to see who started shorting East Asian produced textile companies and when and with how much force? This also comes before private equity can get a manhandle on digesting or replacing publicly held businesses. The technocrats all sell they are replacing modern industry based on "exponential growth" rooted in tech improvements. I've worked in those supply chains for years. Efficiencies based in tech are very real but much more real is the Robber Baron and anti living wage nature of growing these "hard core" exponential growth "founders." I say it too often but just look at events of the regional bank crash of 2023 and who benefited before, during, and after and how.

[Smoove_B]

He is legitimately the dumbest man to ever hold that office:

The United States will proceed with a sweeping 104% tariff on Chinese imports starting at 12:01 a.m. on April 9, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed today.

[El Guapo]

Presumably they thought about 100%, and decided that wasn't enough, but then decided 105% was too much.

[Hyena]

I'm not sure how viable this doomsday scenario is, or if he's even smart enough to pull it off, but how likely is it that he is causing all this turmoil to cause prices/stocks to plummet so his billionaire cronies can slip in and buy stuff on the low end. All it would take would be to then reverse or adjust the tariffs and voila, stock prices soar, doubling or tripling people's wealth in a matter of days. Hell, who knows, maybe even his... "international friends" can get in on it and invest as well. I understand it's a gamble, and while I don't think he himself is smart enough to conceive of it, there surely are others in his orbit of oligarchs that are, but I put nothing past those vile people.

And this comes after short selling before the announcements. Is there a way to see who started shorting East Asian produced textile companies and when and with how much force? This also comes before private equity can get a manhandle on digesting or replacing publicly held businesses. The technocrats all sell they are replacing modern industry based on "exponential growth" rooted in tech improvements. I've worked in those supply chains for years. Efficiencies based in tech are very real but much more real is the Robber Baron and anti living wage nature of growing these "hard core" exponential growth "founders." I say it too often but just look at events of the regional bank crash of 2023 and who benefited before, during, and after and how.

This response is exactly why I avoided R&P for so many years. I'm too dumb to understand the responses to my dumb questions.

I am BY NO MEANS maligning you, LM. In fact, quite the opposite. Your response is so far above my intelligence level that I barely understood it. I don't post here too often because honestly I don't understand global finances or the stock market or trades or anything much above standard math. When they started throwing numbers into math equations in 6th grade I gave up.

Which brings us to the other reason I avoided this forum for so many years. I will echo what someone up above posted: I hate it when the bullies win. I hate it when the powerful yank the yoke on the airplane to jostle everyone around, then level out and say, "Look! I solved the crisis! I saved us all!" I know both sides do it to a certain degree, and therefore I loathe all politicians. But now, I'm trying to learn so I can give evidence and proof of why I believe what I believe instead of just saying, "Because it feels wrong, that's why!"

[LawBeefaroni]

Presumably they thought about 100%, and decided that wasn't enough, but then decided 105% was too much.

I think they just added 50% to the 54% already in place. It was 20% plus an additional 34% on Liberation Day. China responded with a 34% tariff and now Trump is shitting out the extra 50%.

[LordMortis]

This response is exactly why I avoided R&P for so many years. I'm too dumb to understand the responses to my dumb questions.

I am BY NO MEANS maligning you, LM. In fact, quite the opposite. Your response is so far above my intelligence level that I barely understood it. I don't post here too often because honestly I don't understand global finances or the stock market or trades or anything much above standard math. When they started throwing numbers into math equations in 6th grade I gave up.

Which brings us to the other reason I avoided this forum for so many years. I will echo what someone up above posted: I hate it when the bullies win. I hate it when the powerful yank the yoke on the airplane to jostle everyone around, then level out and say, "Look! I solved the crisis! I saved us all!" I know both sides do it to a certain degree, and therefore I loathe all politicians. But now, I'm trying to learn so I can give evidence and proof of why I believe what I believe instead of just saying, "Because it feels wrong, that's why!"

It's me ranting and I apologize if it makes you uncomfortable. It's a poor (and sadly accurate) reflection on who I've been letting myself become over the last decade. But I keep coming back to the choice for VP and who put him there

This has never left me

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_ ... alley_Bank

[Pyperkub]

If I had anyone left in my spheres that claimed to be Reagan lovers in support of this GOP administration, I'd share that but I'm not sure if/when there will be bridge rebuilt between me and them anymore.

Reagan is, was, and always will be my favorite President. That, along with Trump's post-loss behavior and actions, is precisely why I didn't vote for him this time.

Thanks, even if we did end up where we are now.

[Punisher]

Ronald Reagan talked about tariffs:

How can we take him seriously?
My god, he's not even wearing a suit!

[Hyena]

This response is exactly why I avoided R&P for so many years. I'm too dumb to understand the responses to my dumb questions.

I am BY NO MEANS maligning you, LM. In fact, quite the opposite. Your response is so far above my intelligence level that I barely understood it. I don't post here too often because honestly I don't understand global finances or the stock market or trades or anything much above standard math. When they started throwing numbers into math equations in 6th grade I gave up.

Which brings us to the other reason I avoided this forum for so many years. I will echo what someone up above posted: I hate it when the bullies win. I hate it when the powerful yank the yoke on the airplane to jostle everyone around, then level out and say, "Look! I solved the crisis! I saved us all!" I know both sides do it to a certain degree, and therefore I loathe all politicians. But now, I'm trying to learn so I can give evidence and proof of why I believe what I believe instead of just saying, "Because it feels wrong, that's why!"

It's me ranting and I apologize if it makes you uncomfortable. It's a poor (and sadly accurate) reflection on who I've been letting myself become over the last decade. But I keep coming back to the choice for VP and who put him there

This has never left me

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_ ... alley_Bank

Oh God no, not uncomfortable at ALL. In fact, I come here to learn from those much smarter than I. Thank you for your response, and for the information!

[LordMortis]

Oh God no, not uncomfortable at ALL. In fact, I come here to learn from those much smarter than I. Thank you for your response, and for the information!

Look to Lawbeef and if he ever comes back, Noxious Dog, with regard to smart and the stock market and Zax with regard to having a pulse on forward thinking outside of the political. I just rant.

[msduncan]

Ronald Reagan talked about tariffs:

How can we take him seriously?
My god, he's not even wearing a suit!

I laughed. But seriously while watching that I was, for just an instant, surprised to see him without that trademark suit-look he always had. Then I realized he was giving a radio address.

[IceBear]

Holy crap! The *bleep* has hit the fan between China and the US

[Victoria Raverna]

Less than 5% of China's GDP is from export to US so I guess China can play this game very long.

Can US stop importing from China?

[YellowKing]

We traded low(er)? egg prices for higher prices on everything else. It infuriates me every single day that the American people are so fucking stupid.

[Skinypupy]

We traded low(er)? egg prices for higher prices on everything else. It infuriates me every single day that the American people are so fucking stupid.

Let's pretend for a moment that ALL of the administration's magical thinking somehow comes true. All the factories and infrastructure magically spring up overnight, all of the manufacturing jobs magically return, and we magically somehow become entirely self-sufficient and produce every single good and service that Americans need right here in the good ol' US of A. Guess what...everything will STILL be far, far more expensive as a result.

And all it took to get to that fantastic end result was to wipe out trillions in wealth from Americans. Winning!

[LordMortis]

We traded low(er)? egg prices for higher prices on everything else. It infuriates me every single day that the American people are so fucking stupid.

Let's pretend for a moment that ALL of the administration's magical thinking somehow comes true. All the factories and infrastructure magically spring up overnight, all of the manufacturing jobs magically return, and we magically somehow become entirely self-sufficient and produce every single good and service that Americans need right here in the good ol' US of A. Guess what...everything will STILL be far, far more expensive as a result.

And all it took to get to that fantastic end result was to wipe out trillions in wealth from Americans. Winning!

Tax revenue. This way we can get tax cuts and trim the accumulating debt. I can't wait to see how much this cuts income taxes for the average person and how the growing national debt is reversed. I'm sure we'll all be ecstatic with results, which should be happening.... What, now? Beginning of March when this started?

[Scraper]

We traded low(er)? egg prices for higher prices on everything else. It infuriates me every single day that the American people are so fucking stupid.

Let's pretend for a moment that ALL of the administration's magical thinking somehow comes true. All the factories and infrastructure magically spring up overnight, all of the manufacturing jobs magically return, and we magically somehow become entirely self-sufficient and produce every single good and service that Americans need right here in the good ol' US of A. Guess what...everything will STILL be far, far more expensive as a result.

And all it took to get to that fantastic end result was to wipe out trillions in wealth from Americans. Winning!

It was just announced today that an aluminum manufacturing plant near me is closing and even worse a $1 Billion project by Microsoft to build a server facility has been "delayed". Since Drumpf has come back into office Intel has also slowed their plans to build a multi Billion dollar chip manufacturing facility in Ohio. I find it hard to imagine that the tariffs/moronic Drumpf policy didn't have something to do with all of them.

[YellowKing]

Well, I've always said things have to get bad - really, really bad - before they get better. And Trump is doing a damn fine job of making "things getting really really bad" an absolute certainty.

This took him less than 3 months. Can you imagine what this country is going to look like in 4 years?

[Zarathud]

Trump is in the trap Republicans created during the tax cuts his first term — a massive giveaway with the cost hidden in the backend. The bill has come due or he has to give up existing tax rates, and doesn’t get extra tax cuts.

They expected to leave Democrats holding the bag.

[LawBeefaroni]

People, be cool! Daddy will take care of you!

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT

1.05k ReTruths
4.6k Likes
Apr 09, 2025, 8:37 AM

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!

1.5k ReTruths
6.14k Likes
Apr 09, 2025, 8:33 AM

[Smoove_B]

"This is a great time to buy!"

People can't afford housing, medical care or groceries but sure, they're sitting around and waiting to buy stocks on a dip.

[Kraken]

It was just announced today that an aluminum manufacturing plant near me is closing and even worse a $1 Billion project by Microsoft to build a server facility has been "delayed". Since Drumpf has come back into office IBM has also slowed their plans to build a multi Billion dollar chip manufacturing facility in Ohio. I find it hard to imagine that the tariffs/moronic Drumpf policy didn't have something to do with all of them.

It's not ALL tariffs. Mump is also withholding funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (which they deride as "the green new deal'), the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, and the Chips & Science Act. Those big Biden wins were fueling a lot of activity in manufacturing and construction, especially in red states, and it's grinding to a halt as the seed money dries up. 'Course, tariffs aren't helping.

[Max Peck]

Less than 5% of China's GDP is from export to US so I guess China can play this game very long.

Can US stop importing from China?

It varies depending on the source, but it looks like it's something more than 2% and less than 4% of GDP, and about 15% of China's exports.

[Scraper]

It was just announced today that an aluminum manufacturing plant near me is closing and even worse a $1 Billion project by Microsoft to build a server facility has been "delayed". Since Drumpf has come back into office IBM has also slowed their plans to build a multi Billion dollar chip manufacturing facility in Ohio. I find it hard to imagine that the tariffs/moronic Drumpf policy didn't have something to do with all of them.

It's not ALL tariffs. Mump is also withholding funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (which they deride as "the green new deal'), the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, and the Chips & Science Act. Those big Biden wins were fueling a lot of activity in manufacturing and construction, especially in red states, and it's grinding to a halt as the seed money dries up. 'Course, tariffs aren't helping.

The Intel plant started because of the CHIPS act and our Governor bending over backwards to make the state appealing to Intel. Drumpf comes in and blows that up without a second thought.

(Edited to correct the company from IBM to Intel, I always confuse those two)