Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Enough]

This thread (OP is above the response I linked) was a real thinker for me in terms of how I deal with different opinions. I do think there is some wisdom to the idea and in some ways the same applies to why Trump's act works,

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 0075406338

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 0075406338

[Smoove_B]

I get what they're saying and if I was communicating as myself to a an audience of hundreds or thousands, I'd absolutely be watching my words. But in the mean time, fuck Trump.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status ... 8980930562

Trump is at his golf course again, according to the pool report.

Meanwhile, NBC News reports that the U.S. just hit 12 million total cases of coronavirus.

So concerned over the election that was stolen he's out golfing again.

[Daehawk]

TN Republicans put forth a new bill for expand vaccine exceptions. So in the middle of a pandemic they are going to make it easier to refuse vaccines. This state is the devil.

https://www.wrcbtv.com/story/42946273/t ... exemptions

Tennessee would no longer prohibit parents from refusing vaccinations of their children under a proposal that's been filed as COVID-19 cases continue to rise ahead of the GOP-dominant Statehouse's upcoming legislative session.

Tennessee law currently allows parents to refuse to immunize their children as long as the state is "in the absence of an epidemic or immediate threat of an epidemic.” Other sections of Tennessee statute allow parents to deny immunizations of their kids “except where the medical examination, immunization or treatment is necessary for the protection of the health or safety of others.”

These exceptions would be removed according to the legislation, allowing parents to opt-out of school-required vaccinations during the coronavirus pandemic. The bill also would give parents the option to cite “right of conscience” as a reason not to immunize their children.

Rep. Jay Reedy, a Republican from Erin, and Sen. Mark Pody, a Republican from Lebanon, are the lead sponsors of the legislation. They introduced the bill earlier this week.

[LawBeefaroni]

Doomed to repeat it.

As Thanksgiving rolled around, some cities were celebrating the relaxation of flu-related restrictions – partly due to successful opposition campaigns by retailers, theater owners, unions, mass transportation companies and other economically stressed stakeholders. Washington, D.C., Indianapolis, and Oakland had just lifted restrictions days before, and San Francisco was on the brink of lifting its mask mandate.

San Francisco, in particular, had one of the nation's largest anti-masking campaigns, spearheaded by the Anti-Mask League of San Francisco, according to Howard Markel, a professor of the history of medicine at the University of Michigan and co-editor-in chief of The American Influenza Epidemic of 1918-1919. Many people refused to wear masks and were arrested, and when the "line into the courtroom was so long, they laid off arresting people because the system couldn’t enforce it," Markel said.

But Nov. 13, the San Francisco Examiner reported that "Thanksgiving Day will be celebrated in San Francisco by the discarding of gauze masks, if the present rate of decrease in influenza continues."

A week later, San Franciscans ceremoniously removed their masks as a whistle-blow sounded across the city at noon. "San Francisco Joyously Discards Masks In Twinkling; Faces Beam As Gauze Covers Come Off At Time Fixed," the San Francisco Chronicle wrote on its Nov. 22 front page.



...

By the end of November, cases were rising in cities such as Atlanta, Denver, Louisville, Milwaukee, Omaha, Portland and Richmond. Many health experts attributed the "renewal of the grip epidemic" to festivities on Nov. 11 – later designated as Armistice Day – when thousands flooded the streets to celebrate the end of WWI.

"It is not the lifting of the closure ban that is the cause of spreading of the epidemic but the putting aside of all precautions and restrictions by the people of Denver when they celebrated on Victory Day," Denver City Manager of Health and Charity Dr. William H. Sharpley told the Denver Post in a Nov. 21 story.


...

Just as cases rose after Armistice Day celebrations, they rose again following Thanksgiving. Dallas, Minneapolis, San Antonio, San Francisco and Seattle saw surges. Omaha relaunched a public health campaign. Parts of Cleveland and its suburbs closed schools and enacted influenza bans in early December.

On Dec. 6, the St. Paul Daily News announced that more than 40 Minneapolis schools were closed due to the flu, below the headline "SANTA CLAUS IS DOWN WITH THE FLU." Local health officials asked "moving picture show" managers to exclude children, closed Sunday schools and ordered department stores to dispense with "Santa Claus programs."

[Kraken]

When Charlie Baker announced new guidelines requiring masks basically all the time everywhere, even outdoors, Massholes dutifully complied. Based on a couple of short walkabouts today, we are no longer doing it. I saw a lot of people out and about, and I was the only one masked. Granted, we were outdoors and distanced, but people aren't feeling the urgency. Or we've just stopped caring. I blame gushing news coverage of the vaccines.

Indoor compliance is still universal, at least in my very limited travels.

[El Guapo]

When Charlie Baker announced new guidelines requiring masks basically all the time everywhere, even outdoors, Massholes dutifully complied. Based on a couple of short walkabouts today, we are no longer doing it. I saw a lot of people out and about, and I was the only one masked. Granted, we were outdoors and distanced, but people aren't feeling the urgency. Or we've just stopped caring. I blame gushing news coverage of the vaccines.

Indoor compliance is still universal, at least in my very limited travels.

FWIW mask compliance seems to be pretty universal in my neck of the woods (Jamaica Plain area), even outside (though mask compliance rate is at least somewhat lower outside).

[Skinypupy]

I don’t wear one when I’m out for a walk, mainly because I have yet to come close to any other human on any of my walks in the past two months.

If that changes, so will my behavior

[Kraken]

When Charlie Baker announced new guidelines requiring masks basically all the time everywhere, even outdoors, Massholes dutifully complied. Based on a couple of short walkabouts today, we are no longer doing it. I saw a lot of people out and about, and I was the only one masked. Granted, we were outdoors and distanced, but people aren't feeling the urgency. Or we've just stopped caring. I blame gushing news coverage of the vaccines.

Indoor compliance is still universal, at least in my very limited travels.

FWIW mask compliance seems to be pretty universal in my neck of the woods (Jamaica Plain area), even outside (though mask compliance rate is at least somewhat lower outside).

We have Republicans in Braintree.

[malchior]

I even see them in NJ where I'd say compliance is like 99%. It's purely performative nonsense. They try to walk in without out, someone says something, they don't make a scene other than exaggerated sighing, they just reach into their pocket/purse/coat and grab it out. It's just a dumb infantile protest.

I did have a funny 'incident' in the summer where a woman was ahead of me going into a store, the kid at the counter yelled, 'MASSSSSSSKKKKK!' at the top of his lungs -- it wasn't rude he was far away -- and she squeaked and ran past me covering her face with two hands.

[LawBeefaroni]

Ugh.

Should be reaping the rewards right about now.

A Hasidic wedding in Brooklyn slipped under the radar of city officials as it crammed 7,000 maskless people into a synagogue in defiance of Governor Andrew Cuomo's coronavirus restrictions.

On November 8, crowds gathered shoulder to shoulder in the Yetev Lev temple in Williamsburg to celebrate the nuptials of Yoel Teitelbaum, grandson of Satmar Grand Rabbi Aaron Teitelman.


To keep the celebration under wraps, the community shared information on the wedding only by word of mouth as organizers schemed to avoid it being broken up by 'the ravenous press and government officials'.

...

Images of the ceremony show the hall rammed with bodies with no masks in sight as the community celebrated successfully getting away with the gathering.




...

'Now that the wedding has passed, thank God, after being held with great splendor and fanfare, the sentiment expressed by all is: how privileged we are, how good our portion, how fortunate our lot, to have merited the experience of such a glorious night,' wrote Der Blatt.
...
The temple's decision to host the wedding came despite losing its own president, R'Mayer Zelig Rispler, to COVID-219 last month.

Rispler had openly called for the Hasidic community to abide by state guidelines to cut down spread of the virus after they faced criticism for failing to comply with ongoing efforts to curb the outbreak in the city, where nearly 25,000 people have already died.

[El Guapo]

Good lord. I wonder what the death total (and on top of that the hospitalization / long-term complication rate) will be out of that. It's just mind-boggling that people think that's a good idea - like, how favorably are the bride and groom going to think of their wedding day given how this is likely to play out?

[Daehawk]

Dude its more important to have your wedding then the people that will die from it. Sheesh. "Its our anniversary today!...also those 15 people we killed"

Saw where weddings are superspreaders. So many infected by them. One had 100 guest infected and 7 die. Thats not counting those affected from not even being there.

[Daehawk]

And as people die and the Gov tries to help save the idiots from themselves they try to impeach her...

'Impeach Gretchen Whitmer' Petition Gains Support as Michigan Braces for COVID, Election Battles

The petition, entitled "Impeach Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer NOW," calls Whitmer "incompetent" and "deadly" while accusing her of "inadequate" leadership during the pandemic. Concerns include "unnecessary government overreach" and fighting with President Donald Trump for "political clout." As of Sunday, the petition has reached over 7,100 signatures.

[LordMortis]

Tale from Costco, because for reasons I can't wrap my head around, there is always something

1) They have resumed tracking occupancy.
2) They now have a large sign that demand 100% compliance to mask wearing above the nose and those who cannot comply for any reason must wear a face shield. There were no face shields but a shitton of single layer gators.
3) People were visibly annoyed, ignoring social distancing both in lines and throughout the store, ignoring the new arrows and blocks to force one way traffic, and I daresay some were in line to cancel their membership.
4) I only noticed one person not in compliance, she was told by staff to pull her mask up or leave. (yeah!!!) Before complying she loudly protested "I just needed to breath!"
5) They were rationing TP like a prescription medication and everyone had a pack in their cart. I had no intention of buying TP when I walked in but I discovered I am a lemming a sheep and the sales pitch worked. I bought TP when I don't think I'll need it for another two months.
6) My Costco is in Livonia, now notable because the GOP wanted to certify Livonia but not the rest of Wayne County.

Was curious....

https://www.livonia.gov/1825/COVID-19-Information

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/loc ... es-deaths/

Livonia

Pop 94,000
Cases 2,389
Deaths 186
Mortality rate 7.8%

Of course my municipality isn't much better.

[Smoove_B]

I even see them in NJ where I'd say compliance is like 99%. It's purely performative nonsense.

I just did my pre-Thanksgiving curbside pickup and the parking lot was packed. I saw more than a few people with masks slung low, going in and out of the store, which is beyond frustrating. I honestly can't blame the stores at this point for not being willing to enforce what's clearly child-like petulance at what they know is right. Never did I ever believe there would be so much defiance in modern America over wearing a goddamn mask. And they think people are going to get vaccinated and then still wear masks afterwards? 2021 is shaping up to be an ever bigger battle than most realize. Add that in to the ~60% of NJ residents that refuse to cooperate with contact tracers and I'm really at the end of my rope.

Mark my words - a month from now shit is going to be double-extra bleak - both here in NJ and nationwide.

[Smoove_B]

Let me be the first today here to say - fuck you Ted Cruz.

https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status ... 7338754050

This Ted Cruz tweet is an example of what I warned about on @ReliableSources with @brianstelter: the dangerous consequences of turning public health into identity politics. More than 10,000 Americans died last week alone; will only get worse if this politicization continues.

[Daehawk]

So he is using the China star out in the open now?

[Skinypupy]

Utah hospitals have begun informal rationing of care due to COVID surge

[LawBeefaroni]

Let me be the first today here to say - fuck you Ted Cruz.

https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status ... 7338754050

This Ted Cruz tweet is an example of what I warned about on @ReliableSources with @brianstelter: the dangerous consequences of turning public health into identity politics. More than 10,000 Americans died last week alone; will only get worse if this politicization continues.

"A well prepared dinner, being necessary to the enjoyment of a delightful Thanksgiving, the right of the people to keep and bear turkey shall not be infringed."


Nowhere does it say you have the right to gather across state lines to eat said turkey.

[Smoove_B]

Utah hospitals have begun informal rationing of care due to COVID surge

Yeah, I saw earlier that out of the ~500 ICU beds in the state of UT, as of Thursday only about 45 were open and available. I'm guessing that number is even lower today. People are going to die from unrelated illneses because COVID-19 is swamping your state's medical resources. And yet...I still don't think people in America are going to change.

[LawBeefaroni]

Utah hospitals have begun informal rationing of care due to COVID surge

Yeah, I saw earlier that out of the ~500 ICU beds in the state of UT, as of Thursday only about 45 were open and available. I'm guessing that number is even lower today. People are going to die from unrelated illneses because COVID-19 is swamping your state's medical resources...

They died in April and May and June. Why do we expect this time to be different? If anything we've proved our indifference by now.

[Smoove_B]

They died in April and May and June. Why do we expect this time to be different? If anything we've proved our indifference by now.

In the Blue states, yeah. But it seems like a good portion of America is maybe realizing that COVID-19 isn't necessarily NYC problem anymore.

[LawBeefaroni]

Texas Gov Abbott on CNBC. "No more lockdowns in Texas."

If things get worse, they'll close bars late night and reduce restaurants to 50% capacity. This approach has lead to El Paso and Lubbock "getting better."

[Remus West]

And as people die and the Gov tries to help save the idiots from themselves they try to impeach her...

'Impeach Gretchen Whitmer' Petition Gains Support as Michigan Braces for COVID, Election Battles

The petition, entitled "Impeach Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer NOW," calls Whitmer "incompetent" and "deadly" while accusing her of "inadequate" leadership during the pandemic. Concerns include "unnecessary government overreach" and fighting with President Donald Trump for "political clout." As of Sunday, the petition has reached over 7,100 signatures.

7100 signatures is not gaining "support". Given the level of vitriol from the right toward her 7100 signatures is basically a FU to the people gathering them.
Last I saw, which was a while ago admittedly, she was still above 50% approval. If they manage to remove her I may need to start my own militia aimed at fighting our way across the ambassador bridge to safety. I figure if we pick up enough Tim Horton's donuts on the way (and apologize a lot) they are sure to let us through.

[coopasonic]

Texas Gov Abbott on CNBC. "No more lockdowns in Texas."

If things get worse, they'll close bars late night and reduce restaurants to 50% capacity. This approach has lead to El Paso and Lubbock "getting better."

Texas is fine!

The National Guard has been deployed to El Paso to provide support with the morgue crisis

"The Texas Military will provide us with the critical personnel to carry out our fatality management plan and we are very grateful to them for their ongoing support."

Emphasis mine.

[$iljanus]

Texas Gov Abbott on CNBC. "No more lockdowns in Texas."

If things get worse, they'll close bars late night and reduce restaurants to 50% capacity. This approach has lead to El Paso and Lubbock "getting better."

Texas is fine!

The National Guard has been deployed to El Paso to provide support with the morgue crisis

"The Texas Military will provide us with the critical personnel to carry out our fatality management plan and we are very grateful to them for their ongoing support."

Emphasis mine.

We have come a long way from people yelling "Bring out your dead!" and loading them on to wood carts.

[RunningMn9]

Can’t they just their normal fatality management plan from the regular flu season? What am I missing?

[LawBeefaroni]

Texas Gov Abbott on CNBC. "No more lockdowns in Texas."

If things get worse, they'll close bars late night and reduce restaurants to 50% capacity. This approach has lead to El Paso and Lubbock "getting better."

Texas is fine!

The National Guard has been deployed to El Paso to provide support with the morgue crisis

"The Texas Military will provide us with the critical personnel to carry out our fatality management plan and we are very grateful to them for their ongoing support."

Emphasis mine.

Here's the interview.

[Smoove_B]

Can’t they just their normal fatality management plan from the regular flu season? What am I missing?

Yeah, there should already be fatality management plans in place. This was part of the move to "all hazards" preparation that should have been rolled out after 9/11.

In other news, a possible look into the future of rural America:

Vaccine distribution also presupposes that people are willing to be vaccinated. But potential COVID-19 vaccines have been highly politicized. Just as President Donald Trump’s promise to roll out a vaccine prior to the election sowed distrust among Democrats, the Biden administration’s likely effort to distribute one early next year could meet with skepticism among Republicans, especially in rural areas where Trump supporters will have heard over and over that Biden and the Democrats “stole” the election. Black Americans in both rural and urban environments may also be suspicious of any new vaccine after years of mistreatment by the medical establishment, even though they are at high risk for severe COVID-19 infections.

For all these reasons, COVID-19 may continue to circulate in rural areas into 2021 and beyond, even as cities get the virus under control through a combination of vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use, targeted business closures, and test-and-trace efforts done in conjunction with isolation and quarantine. COVID-19 was slower to reach small towns and rural regions of the United States, and it is likely to linger longer in these communities, just as influenza did more than a century ago.

[Isgrimnur]

I look forward to 21st century ghost town tours.

[gbasden]

Hey, less demand for the vaccine means I can get mine sooner!

[Kurth]

I look forward to 21st century ghost town tours.

Umm, maybe you should hold off buying your tickets for those ghost town tours for a bit considering you’re talking about a virus with a 2.1% mortality rate.

[LawBeefaroni]

I look forward to 21st century ghost town tours.

Umm, maybe you should hold off buying your tickets for those ghost town tours for a bit considering you’re talking about a virus with a 2.1% mortality rate.

Not all ghost towns have actual ghosts. Just dead businesses and empty houses.


But I agree, I don't think rural America is going away. At the very least, the Urban elites will buy them up as 2nd or 3rd retreats.

[Blackhawk]

At least one airline has made them mandatory to fly. Schools will probably make them mandatory like they do with most other vaccines. Many businesses will out of a desire to avoid another shutdown and worker sick time. I wouldn't be surprised to see nursing homes require them of visitors. Those requirements will drive it as much as good sense will. There are just two potential pitfalls: how easy it is to forge the 'proof' (if you create a database, people will refuse out of paranoia), and how much we can close down 'exemptions' that don't have any actual basis.

[El Guapo]

At least one airline has made them mandatory to fly. Schools will probably make them mandatory like they do with most other vaccines. Many businesses will out of a desire to avoid another shutdown and worker sick time. I wouldn't be surprised to see nursing homes require them of visitors. Those requirements will drive it as much as good sense will. There are just two potential pitfalls: how easy it is to forge the 'proof' (if you create a database, people will refuse out of paranoia), and how much we can close down 'exemptions' that don't have any actual basis.

I'm expecting that for concerts you'll have to upload a vaccination form in advance of the concert. Then Ticketmaster et al could put some system-wide screens in place for fraud - probably wouldn't be 100%, but wouldn't really need to be to be effective, I would expect.

[malchior]

I think people are going to be less willing to risk felonies to get on airplanes or go to a concert. To get a kid into school...maybe...but the system will work that out.

[Kurth]

I look forward to 21st century ghost town tours.

Umm, maybe you should hold off buying your tickets for those ghost town tours for a bit considering you’re talking about a virus with a 2.1% mortality rate.

Not all ghost towns have actual ghosts. Just dead businesses and empty houses.


But I agree, I don't think rural America is going away. At the very least, the Urban elites will buy them up as 2nd or 3rd retreats.

Excellent work taking one over the top, alarmist take and replacing it with another. That was slick!

[LawBeefaroni]

I look forward to 21st century ghost town tours.

Umm, maybe you should hold off buying your tickets for those ghost town tours for a bit considering you’re talking about a virus with a 2.1% mortality rate.

Not all ghost towns have actual ghosts. Just dead businesses and empty houses.


But I agree, I don't think rural America is going away. At the very least, the Urban elites will buy them up as 2nd or 3rd retreats.

Excellent work taking one over the top, alarmist take and replacing it with another. That was slick!

I aim to please!

[Skinypupy]

So, the CDC made a couple fairly common sense recommendations in regards to holiday gatherings in the middle of a pandemic. Specifically:

"Encourage guests to avoid singing or shouting, especially indoors. Keep music levels down so people don’t have to shout or speak loudly to be heard."

"Using alcohol or drugs that may alter judgment and make it more difficult to practice COVID-19 safety measures"

Which Fox News turned into this:



Which my MAGA friends on social media turned into this:

"Come to CA! I’m embracing the rest of the country finally seeing what CA governance looks like. Buckle up everyone it’s going to get ugly. Think of every freedom you have and it going away"

"What?? Total BS. And that’s the CDC that is making money from all of this $hit!!"

"I just imagine them sitting around the conference table, side by side, no masks, saying 'what silly, arbitrary idea can we put out there that they'll do now?'. It's actually dangerous because they are going to cry wolf too many times. Actually, that ship has sailed. Just tell people to wash their hands well and often and don't touch their faces. If you are not feeling well or are an at risk population, limit your contact with others."

"Do you think the person that types that into the prompter is wondering what in the world their job has come to?
I also love how it’s for “Thanksgiving”..... but on Black Friday can I crank it up and sing at the top of my lungs!? Bc nobody gave a shit about volume last week when I was drinking with a ton of people"

[El Guapo]

Look, he tried to reason with us, explain what we should do. But we didn't listen. So Smoove and his friends did what they needed to do.

ATLANTA—Stressing that staying home this year had become far and away the safest option available, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shut down Thanksgiving travel this week by carrying out major terrorist attacks on all of the nation’s airports and trains stations. “We understand the temptation to travel to see loved ones this holiday season, but it’s important to understand that the dirty bombs and chemical weapons detonated at every major airport from LAX to JFK make travel inadvisable for the foreseeable future,” said Director Robert R. Redfield, adding that the CDC agents had guaranteed the halt of any the coronavirus spread with the additional dynamiting of 50,000 miles of highways, carpet-bombing of all significant rail lines, and placing heads on pikes outside most bus depots as a warning to would-be travelers. “Your safety is our foremost concern, which is why we also recommend that Americans avoid traveling on public transportation, as each and every bus and train has been rigged to explode with C-4 if anyone steps on-board. Anyway, it’s just common sense to take care of yourself and wait to see relatives until late 2021 when the sarin gas clears from your hometown.” At press time, an AP journalist following up on whether healthy, young Americans were advised to travel home had immediately been taken out by a five-kiloton bomb dropped from a CDC drone.