Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:01 am

You and me both.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:28 am

ohboyohboyohboy....not quite "blood in the streets" level yet, but I am getting ready to start buying en masse if it drops much further.

Only have about 12% cash at this point, but that is still much more than I normally have available, waiting for these opportunities.

So yay me, for some self control this time.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:35 am

Bought some AMD this morning, and more BA.

Of course I didn't roll SQQQ calls from last Friday. I almost always have some kind of QQQ short on, but not this week.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:50 am

I had no self control. I had money. So I put it in because things looked on the lower side of bumpy and I felt my money not invested was just wasted when I could at the least be getting dividend income.

I probably could drop some more dimes into the market without completely destroying my rainy day money. But I think my stress and anxiety would be too high if I did. So I will wait until I have more money before invest again. Hopefully, I will look at the shape my current personal and IRA investments are in beginning from November of last year and force myself to wait for the next one of these, as these drops seem to come by often enough.

(Looking at Scottrade, F has tanked, FGP has tanked, SPY has been down for as long as I've owned it but CVS is still up from my purchase point) When it's all said and done my total timing for the market is currently down about 7% and yet I will be taxed on dividends at the end of the year for all things not IRA. I really suck at this.

It is probable (and if I am smart) that I will grow my rainy day money quite a bit and wait for the next one of these before giving more unless I get antsy again...

VTI is next planned investment, so everyone beware. I'll try to warn you before I put money in and destroy its value.

....

End of the day edit: I hope you got your money in early. Now you can dump everything here at the end of the day and call it a good day.

nasai · Post by **nasai** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 1:45 am

Not that I'd tell you to just "jump in," but have you considered selling premium in the Indexes, especially SPY, or SPX? Just a thought to take advantage of both sides/swings/corridors. Granted, the learning curve is quite substantial, but if you keep it really small, like one trade per side, you can learn slowly how Vega works for and against you, and pays quite quickly/well. YMMV.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:42 am

nasai wrote:have you considered selling premium in the Indexes, especially SPY, or SPX?

I don't know what that means. Mainly I have been buying with the intent to hold until retirement.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:58 am

But, but, you're commenting on DAILY movements! Chillax!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:18 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:But, but, you're commenting on DAILY movements! Chillax!

That's because I the daily movements over the last seven months have slowly seen me go down a total of nearly 7% on my money in "the market" while my "cash" has gone up the normal paltry .1% APY.

I have to keep telling myself "long haul retirement. As long as you can stay employed, you have no intention of touching this stuff for 6 years minimum and probably much longer." and "Meh on 7 months" or I'm going to have an ulcer. Also learning "daily movements" is how I'm going to learn when to invest the next chunk of change that comes along so I don't fall pray what I feared but continue to not understand from November and that's "when is the market overvalued."

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:36 am

LordMortis wrote: "when is the market overvalued."

Relative to historical P/E, it's still a bit expensive.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/histo ... ntals.html
and probably a little more...accurate, if you can even use that word with such macro data:
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Morningstar used to have a running "market" value (expensive relatively, or not), but they have recently removed it for some reason.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:49 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:
LordMortis wrote: "when is the market overvalued."
Relative to historical P/E, it's still a bit expensive.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/histo ... ntals.html

I'm learning an expensive on the job lesson, though I'd guess with a world market that is filling up, and a world where more money will be needed to support human resources that are being squeezed too tightly, we will eventually and necessarily see people investing stocks for less returns. I just don't know when then eventuality will be. At the same time, corrections are almost always over corrections (not just in stocks but everywhere), so while the market doesn't seem over valued to me at the moment like it did when threw my money at the wind, it does seem like it's going to worse before it gets better and it seems like gains will be slow it will be a while before I get my 7% back, even if I'm going to be taxed as if I've made money already from the dividends.

So much to learn, so ignorant of how to learn it.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:53 am

Trading halted on NYSE

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:56 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:Trading halted on NYSE

Technical issues are blamed for the systems on the NYSE to shut down. Such outages are extremely rare in U.S. markets.

Traders on the NYSE floor were standing around looking at blank trading terminals where no bid or offers were being exchanged.

In a statement, the NYSE says: “We’re currently experiencing a technical issue we’re working to resolve as quickly as possible.”

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:58 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:Trading halted on NYSE

Computer/technical problems. Someone noted that United Airlines was grounded today due to computer issues as well...

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:59 am

I hope this has nothing to do with China.

nasai · Post by **nasai** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:00 pm

LordMortis wrote:
nasai wrote:have you considered selling premium in the Indexes, especially SPY, or SPX?

I don't know what that means. Mainly I have been buying with the intent to hold until retirement.

Well, it's more than convoluted, but long story short is I buy an option and sell an option at the time on either the call or put side. What this does is allows me to control how much risk I carry (I prefer $2 wide strikes) which means I risk $800 to make $200(ish) dollars in any given trade.

Look up verticals/calls/puts on the web. It should give you a far better breakdown than I can explain. PM for details, if you really want them.

Here's a good resource: http://www.riskreversal.com/education/verticalspreads/

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:03 pm

I'm not ready mentally or emotionally or financially stable enough to trade in options... Yet... Maybe in a few years...

nasai · Post by **nasai** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:05 pm

That's fair. It took me a LONG time, but it's great now. I got numb.

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:07 pm

WSJ.com down, now, too. Along with all of United's computers. All this while the Chinese market is going haywire. This is not good.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:43 pm

Wooo, I smell some sales coming our way soon! Get ready to open those wallets, gentlemen!

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jul 09, 2015 12:39 pm

I liquidated a chunk of my 401K mutual funds last week to have some cash and the timing was pretty good but I've only bought BA, AMD, and GG with it so far. The only "sale" was AMD and that was on terrible news.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jul 14, 2015 4:17 pm

Twitter spikes 5% on fake Bloomberg story.

BI wrote:Twitter shares spiked Tuesday on a fake report the company had found a buyer.

A report on a website made to look like Bloomberg.com [bloomberg.market] said Twitter had gotten an offer to be taken over for $31 billion.

Bloomberg spokesman Ty Trippet subsequently said the Twitter story was fake.

Someone made a quick buck.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jul 14, 2015 4:23 pm

How does Twitter monetize?

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Jul 14, 2015 4:29 pm

LordMortis wrote:How does Twitter monetize?

By finding a buyer.

I'm here all week. Try the veal.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jul 14, 2015 4:32 pm

LordMortis wrote:How does Twitter monetize?

They don't, but whoever sold those shares at $37-$38 did. And, I'm going to guess, a lot of options. Volume for this Friday's $38s alone was 33K.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:56 am

Do they allow investment in helium futures?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:59 am

Just be sure you aren't sold a bunch of hot air.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:07 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Do they allow investment in helium futures?

It's not a futures traded commodity but there is PX and APD

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:34 am

Ferrari IPO

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles said on Thursday that it had filed with regulators to spin off Ferrari, the Italian luxury sports car maker, in an initial public offering in the United States.

The automaker said that it would seek to list the shares of the business, to be known as Ferrari N.V., on the New York Stock Exchange.

Fiat Chrysler said the number of shares to be offered or the potential price range had yet to be determined, but any proposed offering isn’t expected to exceed 10 percent of Ferrari’s outstanding shares.

Following the offering, Fiat Chrysler said it expected it would own about 80 percent of Ferrari and about 10 percent would be owned by Piero Ferrari, the son of Ferrari founder Enzo Ferrari, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Fiat Chrysler intends to distribute its remaining shares in Ferrari to Fiat Chrysler’s shareholders following the I.P.O., according to the filing.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:40 pm

Amazon goes nuts:

Amazon (AMZN) shares zoomed higher in extended trading on Thursday after the online retailer posted second-quarter results that widely beat Wall Street's expectations.

The shares rallied more than 18%, adding to a gain of 55% this year, to an all-time high price of over $567...

...The Seattle, Washington-based company posted per-share earnings of 19 cents, compared to the consensus estimate of a loss of 15 cents a share. Sales of $23.2 billion, up 20% from last year, also topped expectations of $22.4 billion.

Revenue at the firm's Amazon Web Services unit hit $1.8 billion for the quarter, up from $1 billion in the same three months in 2014. That 81% increase was double the growth rate AWS experienced in the same quarter last year, signaling the growing strength of Amazon's cloud offering.

The acceleration of growth in Amazon comes just as competition is increasing.

AWS is almost 10% of the revenues now, and growing.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:43 pm

Yeah, some amazing numbers. I almost grabbed some calls today but didn't want to load up going into vacation.

Good to see though.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:20 am

I just dumped most of my cash into KGFHY - Kingfisher

It's basically Europe and Asia's version of Home Depot/Lowe's.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:56 am

And the blood is starting to trickle...getting interesting indeed!

We have China to thank for this current mini buying opp.

OTOH, you look at the 5 YR chart for the S&P and this is not even a finger prick, relatively:

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:06 pm

Great article on Amazon vs. Apple

xwraith · Post by **xwraith** » Mon Aug 10, 2015 7:24 pm

Google is restructuring

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:10 pm

noxiousdog wrote:Great article on Amazon vs. Apple

My biggest issue with Apple is that their walled garden approach imploded on them once before, and 2 of their major forays into other areas (the watch and the TV) aren't showing much growth - and I see that (as well as the Beats acquisition) as moves which may have gone better were Jobs still with us.

I've been wrong on Apple for quite awhile, but I just am not enamored of them, mostly for personal reasons, but also because I'm not quite sure of their heading yet in a post-Steve Jobs world. The good results lately feel a bit like they are still the remnants of the Steve Jobs wave, and not anything new.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:12 pm

It doesn't have to be new. Once you subtract out cash (adjusting for debt), they are trading at ten times earnings.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Aug 10, 2015 11:01 pm

noxiousdog wrote:It doesn't have to be new. Once you subtract out cash (adjusting for debt), they are trading at ten times earnings.

Or put another way, AAPL is trading at around 17 times 2014 earnings. AMZN is trading at around -1,000 times 2014 earnings. 2015 estimates? AAPL is at 12x and AMZN is at 375. I'm no fan of AAPL and I get growth and all that but damn that's some crazy shit right there.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:34 am

xwraith wrote:Google is restructuring

Wow - I had to check the date on the post to make sure it wasn't a April Fool's day joke. New CEO for Google - should be interesting.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:30 pm

Blue Warrior thought the recent drop in VTI to a six month low was a good opportunity to jump in late this morning.

Whoops. Look like Blue Warrior should have waited until Monday at the very least.

Man or man, a slow deflation of the money I have invested since November of last year is seeing my investment worth down about 10% in aggregate, while I am sure I am going to have to pay taxes on all of the dividends that are coming in slower than the market drops.

What's terrible is that if it drops too much more I'll be tempted to throw in more money, which would be a bad idea. I have about a year's worth of living expenses as my safety net and it needs to stay that way... but if this market continues tumbling... I'll have to make up my 10% down somewhere, right?

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:45 pm

LordMortis wrote: I have about a year's worth of living expenses as my safety net and it needs to stay that way..

In this era of consumer debt spending hell, you're a god damn super hero. Congrats.