Octopus Overlords

Isn't it interesting?

Austin is n-1 and two of my top wolf candidates are both on him (especially after their initial spread of one on bb and one on Austin)?

I don't think Bubbles is participating, so I suppose it's down to whether Remus or I want to push Austin over.

I could go back to BB, if you prefer. I think one of them is a wolf, and not sure which one. BB and Theo made a good case, so I switched... I hope it was the right switch..

Qantaga wrote:Isn't it interesting?

Austin is n-1 and two of my top wolf candidates are both on him (especially after their initial spread of one on bb and one on Austin)?

I don't think Bubbles is participating, so I suppose it's down to whether Remus or I want to push Austin over.

Keep barking. Seems like you are waiting for us to switch, so the villager bb2112 dies, instead. Why not test Austin - for the thousandth time?

theohall wrote:Keep barking. Seems like you are waiting for us to switch, so the villager bb2112 dies, instead. Why not test Austin - for the thousandth time?

theo, have you looked through the game? Have you evaluated reactions/votes/posts?

Or are you just clinging to Austin and damn the torpedoes?

How do you *know* that Austin is a wolf and bb is a villager?

I'd love to hear more from you than, "trig and Newcastle recognized it as a wolf play on Day 1."

I simply find more evil indicators with Austin's play than I do with bb's.

I could list many reasons to be suspicious of Austin, and quite a few reasons to be suspicious of bb. (I could also list many reasons why I think they are both good).

However, it mostly boils down to:

Item 1

Lassr said:

Lassr wrote:

Mr Bubbles wrote:

Newcastle wrote: austin 
 


i think he's a wolf...got a PM from him claiming seer...oh yeah...i went there...i dont believe him

I got the PM too, but man.. if he turned out to be the real seer, you just screwed us over...

So, that is 2 of the 4 Austin claimed to have PM'ed.

When the PM Austin sent really claimed to be PMing 3, not 4. And Austin never contested him.

Item 2

Lassr lied about asking who the other two PMs went to. And Austin never contradicted him.

Item 3

Austin claimed that he told three people to "wait" (or "fessed" to them), so they wouldn't "Newcastle."

1. bb2112:

Austin wrote: The Story of bb2112
Message 1

bb2112 wrote:HOLY CRAP!!! I'm not sure I agree with that strategy! So you basically outed yourself to 3 players as the seer? And you are hoping that one of them is not a wolf??? WTF!

I sure hope you are not the seer and you are just playing to get killed.

bb2112 wrote:Ok, I thought about this for a minute after I typed you the last PM. I sure hope you are faking and trying to draw the kill. Who else did you PM? So if you die tonight, then I will know who we need to target tomorrow.

Message 2

bb2112 wrote:I've been thinking about this ever since you mentioned it. If you are the real seer, then yes, you made a huge mistake. If you aren't, then it was pretty brilliant. By telling only 3 people, if you die, it narrows the pool of suspects. If you don't die, then it relieves some of the suspicion on those three, because a wolf would almost have to act on it. But of course, if you are faking, the ultimate bad scenario would be if you told the real seer and he comes out to counter claim. Which, thankfully, has not happened.

Either way, whether you are faking or not, who are the other 2 you told? Like I said, if you die, then I want to know who are the prime suspects.

And just so you know, I don't suspect you as a wolf. A wolf would never be this reckless. Just as I believe a seer would not be this reckless. If you are fooling me, and you really are a wolf, then well played and kudos to you.

bb2112 wrote:Hello?! What is going on? I know you are getting my messages, I can only assume you are reading them.

Who are the other 2 people???

I fessed up to him at this point to avoid him Newcastling. (I also fessed to Qantaga, and told Lassr to wait a t one point to avoid them Newcastling)

2. Qantaga:

Austin wrote: The Story of Qantaga.
Message 1

Qantaga wrote:
If this is a true play, then you have chosen wisely with me. I am not a wolf.

As such:

1. You know this already, if you are a wolf.
2. If you are a wolf, you must weigh if my non-wolf claim is that of villager or seer. (As a wolf, you must then evaluate if item 3 below is true or iocane).
3. If you are truly the seer, you don't have any current reason to trust me, but I will assure you (as best I can in this format) that I am indeed good.

I just hope you're not making me your present-day Lassr.

Message 2

Qantaga wrote:
With me? Not at all.

Or do you now think one of the other two you PMed are evil?

Or is the mistake that you thought the game started at night and not the day?

Qantaga wrote:
You know, you might as well play this all the way through.

While it's very possible that (a) you're a wolf, (B) you're a villager sending this to everyone to take the night kill instead of the seer (kudos if this is your true play), or (C) I'm a wolf, let's play this out under the assumption that we are both good.

If one of the other two that you PMed is a wolf, then you will die tonight (as there is no protector), so I think it is important that you share with me the names of the other two players you contacted with your "I'm the seer" PMs.

1. If I'm a wolf, those names won't matter because I would already know my teammates.
2. If you die, I would know that one or both of the other two players you PMed are evil.
3. If we both survive the night, then we know we have a base of 4 cleared players, since there's no possibility a wolf would allow the seer to live tonight.

While you cannot fully trust me, if you die without sharing the other two names with me, then I will have no place to start looking, if you are killed tonight.

3. Lassr:

Austin wrote:The Story of Lassr.
Message 1

Lassr wrote:hmmm, sure I'll play along. If you are a wolf we'll see where this leads. If you are truly the seer then what huge pair of kahunas you are sporting. If you are a villager playing around then kudos.

Message 2

Lassr wrote:if you truly are the seer I would probably agree but what mistake are you talking about?

One of these things is not like the others.

Why in the world did Lassr's PMs merit a "wait" from Austin?

Item 4

Lassr chose not to kill Austin when Austin was at n-1. Although my original logic told me that Lassrwolf would have wanted to be able to say, "I told you so" if he knew Austin would turn up wolf, I am (reluctantly) drawn to theo's (and Remus') interpretation that Lassr would have been more likely to pass on his partner Day 1, then try to separate himself from Austin by voting on Austin early in Day 2 (which he did).

I still think the wolves are RMC and theohall (and I really hate that both theo and RMC are on Austin), but there is not a realistic chance of either of them being lynched today.. and the logical events of the game lead to either Austin or bb (or both) being wolves.

At risk of significant ridicule, and in hopes that I'm not dooming our village:

 Austin 
 

What you just wrote about Day One and the Lassr-Austin interaction, Qantaga, is why I have been after Austin and could not understand why the lynch went so quickly on Newcastle on Day 3.

Had Q not done that I would have.

Can I post from Safari?

Test.

Good job wolves. Now the village must decide on the darling bb2112 or a stab in the non-three.

Austin wrote:Good job wolves. Now the village must decide on the darling bb2112 or a stab in the non-three.

I sure hope you are messing with us.

bb2112 wrote:

Austin wrote:Good job wolves. Now the village must decide on the darling bb2112 or a stab in the non-three.

I sure hope you are messing with us.

Golly gee, do you?

Austin wrote:

bb2112 wrote:

Austin wrote:Good job wolves. Now the village must decide on the darling bb2112 or a stab in the non-three.

I sure hope you are messing with us.

Golly gee, do you?

Golly gee, yes.

At least I get spoilers soon.

Austin wrote:At least I get spoilers soon.

Ha! That's what you think. Stess left yesterday to drop off his kids at school and didn't get back until 12 hours later. You could be waiting a long time if he has to go do another errand.

Day 4 Final Vote Count

Voting is closed!

Voting history Majority is 4.

Against Austin (4): theohall, bb2112, RMC, Qantaga
Against bb2112 (1): Austin

No Votes (2): Bubbles, Remus

bb2112 wrote:

Austin wrote:At least I get spoilers soon.

Ha! That's what you think. Stess left yesterday to drop off his kids at school and didn't get back until 12 hours later. You could be waiting a long time if he has to go do another errand.

Back at work today so I actually have more time.

Dudes, Austin was such a Good Guy!

It is Night.

Seer and Wolves, do your thing.

Deadline is Noon Central Time on Thursday, July 12.

Shitty. We are so screwed. That means I'm the most likely lynch tomorrow and then it is game over.

Congratulations wolves. Nice f'ing hit on Unagi turning this whole game upside down.

/Lucy takes the football away from Charlie Brown again

AAARRGGGHHH!!!

I take a good part of responsibility for being gone. This is shameful.

So who is left?

theohall
bb2112
RMC
Qantaga
Bubbles
Remus

And one of us will fall tonight... Two wolves still out there...

The Villagers and Mod are both short on time so...

Mr Bubbles is Dead!

It is Day. Villagers, do your thing!

Census

1. El Guapo - lost his ribs
2. Bubbles - fast food
3. Chaosraven - finger lickin' good
4. bb2112
5. Remus West
6. Lassr - WOLF
7. Austin - lynched with regret
8. Theo
9. Trig - lynched
10. RMC
11. Unagi - traditional unadon takeout
12. Newcastle - suicide
13. Qantaga ( )

Majority is 3.

Deadline is Monday, July 16 at 8pm Central Time.

Here is what I think:

bb2112 - I don't think he is a wolf
Remus West - He must be a wolf
Theo - I don't think he is a wolf
RMC - Not a Wolf
Qantaga - He must be the other wolf

This is what I am guessing. I could be wrong. I have not been right this game, except for accusing Lassr. So I am willing to go a different direction.

The wolves can win this by both jumping on a vote for a non-wolf by any of us villagers. So we have to be careful about putting votes on people.

So Theo and BB, what do you think?

I guess I could always try...

I am Mara Jade, please convert me!

But I don't think that will work this game.

RMC wrote:Here is what I think:

bb2112 - I don't think he is a wolf
Remus West - He must be a wolf
Theo - I don't think he is a wolf
RMC - Not a Wolf
Qantaga - He must be the other wolf

This is what I am guessing. I could be wrong. I have not been right this game, except for accusing Lassr. So I am willing to go a different direction.

The wolves can win this by both jumping on a vote for a non-wolf by any of us villagers. So we have to be careful about putting votes on people.

So Theo and BB, what do you think?

Not that you asked me but you are wrong regarding me. I figured Qantaga for dead in the night so I need to relook at him (still, I doubt he is a wolf given our interactions but I'm not going to rule it out).

I doubt that theohall is a wolf and if he is then I'm prepared to say bravo to him on a well played game because he looks just like normal villager theo to me.

That leave you, RMC, and bb2112 who is by far the most likely to be a wolf due to the Unagi kill thing and where my vote will probably go today.

Remus West wrote:

RMC wrote:Here is what I think:

bb2112 - I don't think he is a wolf
Remus West - He must be a wolf
Theo - I don't think he is a wolf
RMC - Not a Wolf
Qantaga - He must be the other wolf

This is what I am guessing. I could be wrong. I have not been right this game, except for accusing Lassr. So I am willing to go a different direction.

The wolves can win this by both jumping on a vote for a non-wolf by any of us villagers. So we have to be careful about putting votes on people.

So Theo and BB, what do you think?

Not that you asked me but you are wrong regarding me. I figured Qantaga for dead in the night so I need to relook at him (still, I doubt he is a wolf given our interactions but I'm not going to rule it out).

I doubt that theohall is a wolf and if he is then I'm prepared to say bravo to him on a well played game because he looks just like normal villager theo to me.

That leave you, RMC, and bb2112 who is by far the most likely to be a wolf due to the Unagi kill thing and where my vote will probably go today.

<shrug> I could be BB...But I just think he is playing too normal to be a wolf.. You and Q, however... Nope... I think it is You and Q. I could be wrong, but I am not convinced it is not the two of you..

Let's state the obvious:

The game is on the line.

For the two of you that are also villagers, please do not cast a formal vote until you are certain that you are willing to bet the entire game on that person being a wolf. One erroneous vote on a villager lets the wolves pile on and end the game.

I encourage everyone to go back through the game with a fine tooth comb.

Of the remaining folks, Remus West and Qantaga are two who could possibly have deduced Unagi's role. So they are both up there. Qantaga, however, looks more innocent with Austin being a villager. The non-voting Remus West, on the other hand, looks like he did last game when he repeatedly did not vote. Of course, Q essentially re-stating what I did about Lassr and Austin and using it as his reason for the kill vote, could just him be hiding as the other wolf.

The one I doubt is a wolf is RMC.

However, bb2112 is one of the three Unagi PM'd remaining and with Unagi's death happening immediately, it is almost given we should vote for bb2112.

It then becomes a 50/50 for the remaining villagers.

#1) bb2112
#2) Remus West
#3) Qantaga

Will wait to hear from the others.

<ezmate>going to be out of touch with the internet friday and most of saturday. going canoeing on the Santa Fe river in FL.</ezmate>

Let's state the obvious, part 2:

I want to encourage everyone not to get blinders about bb. He may be a wolf, but scenario 2 (that Unagi was deduced) is becoming more and more probable. And, even if bb happens to be a wolf, he's not the only one.

We should all be investigating thoroughly.

Qantaga wrote:Let's state the obvious, part 2:

I want to encourage everyone not to get blinders about bb. He may be a wolf, but scenario 2 (that Unagi was deduced) is becoming more and more probable. And, even if bb happens to be a wolf, he's not the only one.

We should all be investigating thoroughly.

These are the kind of posts which actually raise my suspicion in regards to your villager-ness. Not exactly sure why other than it looks like the Big Bad Wolf telling Little Red Riding Hood "the better to see you with."

My investigation from yesterday points to you being a bad guy. Re-investigating is not likely to change that opinion.

Remus West and his non-votes stand out dramatically, which is why I currently have him ahead of you, but that opinion is shifting.

RMC does not stand out at all - which is kind of normal for him. He is actually posting more which is kind of a pattern for him when a villager later in games.

Leaving bb2112 and Remus pointing out bb2112's suspicious behavior from yesterday.

Up to Q, RW, bb2112, and RMC to make their cases.

theohall wrote: These are the kind of posts which actually raise my suspicion in regards to your villager-ness. Not exactly sure why other than it looks like the Big Bad Wolf telling Little Red Riding Hood "the better to see you with."

theo, both you and Remus have already stated:

Remus West wrote: bb2112 who is by far the most likely to be a wolf due to the Unagi kill thing and where my vote will probably go today.

theohall wrote:However, bb2112 is one of the three Unagi PM'd remaining and with Unagi's death happening immediately, it is almost given we should vote for bb2112.

Yet, you now claim that it is me who looks wolfy by suggesting that we should take our time and think things over (and actually daring to point out that there is a second wolf out there, even if bb is a wolf). Pot meet kettle.

Yet, neither of us have placed a vote.

Oh, so I should disregard any comments you make until a formal vote is cast?

You know better.

You asked for our opinions. We stated them.

Everyone, so far, is asking to wait to vote. We are waiting to vote.

What's your take, Q, other than accusing us with our opinions, an opinion which was shared by a majority of villagers (that one of the 3 has to be a wolf)?

theohall wrote:You asked for our opinions. We stated them.

Everyone, so far, is asking to wait to vote. We are waiting to vote.

What's your take, Q, other than accusing us with our opinions, an opinion which was shared by a majority of villagers (that one of the 3 has to be a wolf)?

theo, I did not ask for opinions. I asked everyone to investigate.

Then, I saw that both you and Remus had expressed a pretty strong opinion that bb should be the vote today.

I, then, pointed out that we should not have blinders about bb, especially since Newcastle and Austin were both good, thus indicating that perhaps Scenario 2 (Unagi detected) is not such a low probability, after all.

You, then, said that my pointing that out made you think I was the Big Bad Wolf.

I am looking back through the game with an open mind, and my current take is that this game is more complex than "bb should get the vote."

I am afraid that a rush to a bb vote, without all of us doing due diligence, would be a mistake.

I was out this evening and just got back. I agree with not voting until we talk this out. We are out of misses and we should agree on who to vote for before we place the formal votes.

I will post some more thoughts tomorrow.

Day 5 Vote Count

Voting history Majority is 3.

No Votes (5): bb2112, Remus, theohall, RMC, Qantaga

Deadline is Monday, July 16 at 8pm Central Time.

So I guess we need to look back over each of us, and see who pushed for whom.
But there are a ton of PM's out there, that each of us individually have...

So who is going to come forth with some damning evidence from PM's that only a few/one has?

I'll be the first to say, I was not on board with the whole PM'ing thing. I guess I just never got it...

I like re-reading the thread..But I think I am missing a lot without the PM's..

I just think out of the ones left..Remus and Q have the best luck of having hit U as a random hit vs the rest of us.

If BB is a wolf, then he has played, and is still playing a brilliant game..But I don't see him pushing with a partner...Maybe I am missing it...

But I just can't put Theo and BB together as a team..And BB and Remus I guess could be a team...But I don't see that either..

And I am not a team with anyone..So I guess I am staying with Remus and Q as the final wolves for right now.

I think Remus is the best vote for today...

That's 3 of 5 opinions.

Leaves it up to bb2112 and Q to promote their opinions.

I think it would be silly to pursue anyone other than bb2112 today due to the Unagi angle though and I'd like to do that then we have either lost or get to see where we are at tomorrow. A final decision between theohall, RMC, and Qantaga will either be made easier or taken out of my hands entirely.