Octopus Overlords

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:50 pm I'm no expert but I can't help but think the Democrats aren't going to be campaigning on anything in January of an election year. Feels (to me) like they're trying to allow all the Trump nonsense to stay at the top of the news cycle (like his court appearance today) and at some unknown point in the late Spring or early Summer they're going to start a media blitz with the understanding that the average attention span of their target audience (the uncommitted and reluctant (D) voters) is going to focus on what's happening closer to election today than whatever is going on right now.

Maybe I'm way off base, but because they're not a cult, they don't need to keep everyone at a fever pitch for 10+ months over whatever ooga booga they've identified as important for that week.

It's not about keeping them at a fever pitch - that's the Republican strategy of politics as a WWE level entertainment event - but what you are describing is the old world. We don't live in it anymore and that's partly what people are trying to get the Biden campaign to understand. You have to engage with people over long periods of time and understand how to communicate and build trust with them. It might be partly about "entertainment" but it is at the most basic level being relatable to the voters. Broadcasting ads on tv isn't going to be enough nowadays and the old people are acting like old people. That is a differentiator with Trump - like it or not - he connects with people. He does it in the most heinous, evil ways but that ability probably more than any other has kept him in the game when he should be out for so many reasons.

Ok, well I don't really know what Biden or the Democrats can broadly connect with the electorate over then, I guess. Shit is pretty dire, imho (politically) and it's hard to get "wins" when the opposition party is doing everything they can to obstruct (legislatively) or unwind (judicially) any type of forward motion.

Sure, I totally get that there are things that are better or that progress has been made in some areas. However, recent college grad unemployment rates are like 2x the national average and individual debt levels are high. Mortgage rates are also high and housing stock is low. Add in the war on women and how badly the administration is bungling the response in Gaza and things are understandably awful. And that doesn't include anything about healthcare, the LGBTQ+ community or how admitting we're still in a goddamn pandemic is verboten.

Don't get me wrong, I still think anyone pondering voting for any GOP candidate is insane and not voting or voting 3rd party is just an indirect vote for the GOP.

Anyway, I guess it's pretty clear why I'm not part of any local public-relations and voting drive for the Democrats; I honestly wouldn't even know where to begin.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:40 pm Ok, well I don't really know what Biden or the Democrats can broadly connect with the electorate over then, I guess. Shit is pretty dire, imho (politically) and it's hard to get "wins" when the opposition party is doing everything they can to obstruct (legislatively) or unwind (judicially) any type of forward motion.

Sure, I totally get that there are things that are better or that progress has been made in some areas. However, recent college grad unemployment rates are like 2x the national average and individual debt levels are high. Mortgage rates are also high and housing stock is low. Add in the war on women and how badly the administration is bungling the response in Gaza and things are understandably awful. And that doesn't include anything about healthcare, the LGBTQ+ community or how admitting we're still in a goddamn pandemic is verboten.

Don't get me wrong, I still think anyone pondering voting for any GOP candidate is insane and not voting or voting 3rd party is just an indirect vote for the GOP.

Anyway, I guess it's pretty clear why I'm not part of any local public-relations and voting drive for the Democrats; I honestly wouldn't even know where to begin.

You are probably like the majority of voters, who are going to vote against "their guy", rather than for "yours". That's me as well, FWIW.

Holman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:49 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:53 pm It's like...if Biden can't get a polling edge on "protecting democracy"...WTF is going on?

Democrats understand "protecting democracy" to mean "prevent an authoritarian dictatorship."

Republicans understand it to mean "STop the StEal!!"

Yeah, this. Both sides agree that democracy is in danger. Dems already stole one election...they can't get away with it again!

Another thing IDK what Dems can do about: Voters buy the sizzle, not the steak. Biden served up a lot of juicy steak in his first term, but trump has all the sizzle.

He certainly doesn’t have the steak.
Although I think he did once try and sell that too.

Also a scam.

People always say the Democrats can't communicate and can't campaign, yet they're still winning elections right and left. I mean it's fine to emphasize the importance of connecting with voters for this particular election, but on the whole, they've been doing just fine. I just don't buy into this idea that the party is so out of touch with voters that they're in a perpetual cycle of defeat when in fact the exact opposite is true.

It's not like Republicans have had to gerrymander the hell out of their states, try to change laws, and disenfranchise voters because they're so good at winning against out of touch Democrats.

One thing I noticed on youtube is that most of the leftist youtubers or channels that used to defend Biden against MAGA/GOP's attacks are now also attacking and questioning Biden.

Thing changed a lot since the Israel-Gaza war. It is not just the muslim or Arab Americans that are angry at Biden for his handling of Israel-Gaza war.

Same with looking at the comments on youtube. Used to be only MAGA crowds that insulted or attacked Biden but now we have leftist commenters that insulted Biden. Dark Brandon is gone and now we have Genocide Joe.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:53 pm People always say the Democrats can't communicate and can't campaign, yet they're still winning elections right and left. I mean it's fine to emphasize the importance of connecting with voters for this particular election, but on the whole, they've been doing just fine. I just don't buy into this idea that the party is so out of touch with voters that they're in a perpetual cycle of defeat when in fact the exact opposite is true.

It's not like Republicans have had to gerrymander the hell out of their states, try to change laws, and disenfranchise voters because they're so good at winning against out of touch Democrats.

North Carolina State Senator Mark McDaniel once said: “We are in the business of rigging elections.” For those needing a source, Senator McDaniel is quoted in Hoeffel, J. "Six Incumbents Are a Week Away from Easy Election." Winston-Salem Journal, Jan. 27, 1998.

Districts that are single-party dominated and uncompetitive have become rampant. In the 2016 elections for the U.S. House, only 33 of the 435 races were truly competitive – decided by a margin of 10% or less. Forty-two of the fifty states had no competitive contests at all for the U.S House. The average winner in these states garnered 70% of the vote.

This has what has led to extremists like MTG getting into Congress. Because all that matters is you win the primary - thats the real election- not the actual day itself. Its so bad now in many races, in particular at state level only one major party bothers to run because the other knows it has no chance. https://www.governing.com/archive/gov-u ... races.html

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:18 am One thing I noticed on youtube is that most of the leftist youtubers or channels that used to defend Biden against MAGA/GOP's attacks are now also attacking and questioning Biden.

Thing changed a lot since the Israel-Gaza war. It is not just the muslim or Arab Americans that are angry at Biden for his handling of Israel-Gaza war.

Same with looking at the comments on youtube. Used to be only MAGA crowds that insulted or attacked Biden but now we have leftist commenters that insulted Biden. Dark Brandon is gone and now we have Genocide Joe.

I haven't seen that.

I have not either.

I guess that is a good news. I was afraid that Trump is going to be the next president because of Biden losing support from the progressive left and young voters.

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:43 am I guess that is a good news. I was afraid that Trump is going to be the next president because of Biden losing support from the progressive left and young voters.

I am afraid Trump is going to be the next president but I think the loss of progressive left and young voters, while a factor, is small. Palestine may literally cost him Michigan. Gerrymandering may keep Biden home in Wisconsin, though I hope the exact opposite happens. Domestic media largely framing the GOP as doing great things to save the economy and US presence on the world stage in spite of TFG or because of his savant nature while framing Biden as incompetent and frail and the reason everything is more expensive and less secure isn't exactly energizing Biden support nor hurting TFG support. Especially in "working class" swing states.

Holman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 6:49 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:53 pm It's like...if Biden can't get a polling edge on "protecting democracy"...WTF is going on?

Democrats understand "protecting democracy" to mean "prevent an authoritarian dictatorship."

Republicans understand it to mean "STop the StEal!!"

If you are living in a city on $3/hr waiting tables front of house where 6% of what diners pay comes off your pay check to pay back of house so you are effectively living off tips what are the Democrats going to do for you.

What have they ever done.

Maybe fifteen years ago on tv you saw some smart guy called Donald Trump helping people build businesses on a reality tv show. I’d someone showed you a picture of Joe Biden you wouldn’t recognise him.

Maybe you do know and you understand the risk but if trump burns the system down through incompetence or malice things might turn out better for you.

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:44 am

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:18 am One thing I noticed on youtube is that most of the leftist youtubers or channels that used to defend Biden against MAGA/GOP's attacks are now also attacking and questioning Biden.

Thing changed a lot since the Israel-Gaza war. It is not just the muslim or Arab Americans that are angry at Biden for his handling of Israel-Gaza war.

Same with looking at the comments on youtube. Used to be only MAGA crowds that insulted or attacked Biden but now we have leftist commenters that insulted Biden. Dark Brandon is gone and now we have Genocide Joe.

I haven't seen that.

You see what the algorithms want you to see.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:53 pm People always say the Democrats can't communicate and can't campaign, yet they're still winning elections right and left. I mean it's fine to emphasize the importance of connecting with voters for this particular election, but on the whole, they've been doing just fine. I just don't buy into this idea that the party is so out of touch with voters that they're in a perpetual cycle of defeat when in fact the exact opposite is true.

It's not about being in a perpetual state of defeat. The issue is that year after year Democratic and Republican performance is out of line with their favorability/popularity. The Democrats can't seem to get credit for their wins and/or general competence. The Republicans never really get punished for their extremism and obstructionism. The Democrats are often playing defense and Republican messaging and especially campaigns that originate in social media dominate the information space.

And it's not just excuses. We can see it in polls asking about job performance, favorability, etc. Against people who are saying absolutely crazy things. I haven't really seen evidence of an alternative theory that fits this disconnect. This is something that Democratic strategists have been wrestling with for years now. This idea is the consensus because little else explains it.

It's not like Republicans have had to gerrymander the hell out of their states, try to change laws, and disenfranchise voters because they're so good at winning against out of touch Democrats.

I think this is the wrong way to think about it. Gerrymandering and the voter suppression aims to earn them more seats and positions than they would otherwise should. For example, in Ohio, Republicans got 60% of the overall vote in 2016 yet were awarded 75% of the seats in their legislature.

Yet zoom out and the Republicans and Democrats dance about that 50% of the national vote axis no matter how far to the right the Republicans go. Abortion extremism staved off the 'red wave' but Republicans still earned north of 50% of the vote. No matter how extreme they become the votes still come. One explanation is that half the electorate has become as extreme as the House members seem to be. Yet there isn't much actual data showing that.

That's why there is a lot of discussion about the Democrats inability to communicate with the electorate. We saw this in 2016 where there was significant polling data showing that Clinton had serious issues in this area. They ignored tons of warning signs and major risk factors there. We have also seen this over and over in various other races as well. And right now we're seeing hints the Biden is making mistakes now ignoring the terrible polling and out sized weakness amongst some critical stakeholders in his base.

I think human beings are easier to motivate through fear and anger than positive messaging.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:32 pm I think human beings are easier to motivate through fear and anger than positive messaging.

There is empirical evidence saying as much. In particular those tactics are very effective with older voters who tend to turn out to vote. Yet it doesn't explain it all. Little explains why we can't scare voters into protecting democracy en masse.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:32 pm I think human beings are easier to motivate through fear and anger than positive messaging.

If so then Democrats need to motivate voters by spreading fear and anger toward Trump and MAGA.

I'm not discounting the very real messaging issues that exist. But I also think there's a skewed perspective in always thinking your team is the one that sucks and can't get their shit together. My in-laws used to complain all the time about how their beloved GOP was a disorganized mess, and the Democrats were the ones firing on all cylinders.

Absolutely true, this is Biden's race to lose. And he very well might. I'm just not fully onboard the doom train yet. I've got a ticket, and I'm at the station. Just not ready to board.

Democrats are the party of good governance (whatever you think of their track record in delivering) and ever since Reagan, Republicans have been the anti-government party. That's the stronger hand because Americans are cynical and hostile toward the federal government and take its benefits for granted. Think of the "keep your government hands off my Social Security!" and "what have the Romans ever done for us?" memes, or Drazzil voting for trump while his housing, food, heat, and healthcare all came from multiple federal programs.

Most of you aren't old enough to remember that before Reagan, Republicans peddled their own version of good government and Americans had a generally benevolent opinion despite disagreeing about scope and emphasis. Nowadays anyone who considers government a good thing is a socialist.

How do you message or convince crazy?

It’s not a failure to communicate as much as extreme single issue voters being mad about their issue. MAGAs want vengeance and anti immigration. Progressives want climate change or Palestine or pronouns. If you don’t cater to people’s preconceptions, you get low approvals from likely voters. If you do,you can lose the persuadable voter.

Zarathud wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 5:42 am How do you message or convince crazy?

It’s not a failure to communicate as much as extreme single issue voters being mad about their issue. MAGAs want vengeance and anti immigration. Progressives want climate change or Palestine or pronouns. If you don’t cater to people’s preconceptions, you get low approvals from likely voters. If you do,you can lose the persuadable voter.

Yeah, I absolutely agree with the issues that Beutler and others have raised about effective political messaging in the 21st century. At the same time, though, I'd love to see proof of concept of this type of messaging employed on behalf of a center-left liberal politician. Like there's certainly already plenty of anti-Trump anti-MAGA social media memes / messaging. But I worry that social media messaging on behalf of gradual progressive change over time through open and fair democratic structures and center-left politicians will inevitably degenerate into:

Now I'm seeing oblique references to revelations of Nikki Haley having had extramarital affairs.

What's the story there? Is it legit news or just GOP primary ratfucking?

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:40 pm Now I'm seeing oblique references to revelations of Nikki Haley having had extramarital affairs.

The Trump team is trying to smear someone for having affairs?

If it’s dirty tactics, it’s Trump.

Oh good we're back to the idea that his brain is made of pure 100% grade F pudding.

I'm beginning to wonder if maybe he's just not physically able to handle primary season and campaigning like this - while also being forced to go to court. Will he make it or will he just keel over?

Tim Scott, political powerhouse just threw in for Trump…over supporting Haley from his own state.

Damn that’s cold.

Trump can make him VP, Haley cannot.

stessier wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2024 8:46 am Trump can make him VP, Haley cannot.

Well, I'm sure Trump will be choosing the most yes-man, loyal, servile VP he can, after learning the Mike Pence lesson, so that fits. The vile, loud Vivek seems too strong of a personality for Trump. I think the pick will be the most obedient, malleable person he can find.

That's a pretty solid definition of Tim Scott.

I don't think anyone that had the nerve to 'primary' Trump will get the nod, no matter how much ass they kiss.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:30 pm Tim Scott, political powerhouse just threw in for Trump…over supporting Haley from his own state.

Damn that’s cold.

Didn't Haley (as SC Governor) appoint Tim Scott to the senate to fill a vacancy?

Even colder.

I wonder what Tim Scott's totally real girlfriend thinks about this.

I guess Haley gave up on VP position:

I can't imagine that Haley would get the VP nod. I have to think that Trump's main criteria would be "who would have obeyed me on January 6th". Haley is a "maybe" which isn't enough. I think Elise Stefanie is a more likely choice, but I also wouldn't rule out Ivanka Trump.

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He said he’d made his mind up a week before he made the ‘maybe’ comment about Haley. He’s just so full of shit all of the time.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2024 9:50 pm but I also wouldn't rule out Ivanka Trump.

She lost most of her celebrity friends when daddy brought her to the office and gave her a Hasbro Official Kid’s Office set. She was forced to spend time with the people who love her daddy, and I think she’s been fighting hard for the past 3 years to never have to do THAT again. She can’t go back to crowds of deplorables being the only crowd she meets without stones in their hands.

Ron DeSantis is out of the race, suspending his campaign and immediately endorsing Trump.

I assume most of his support in NH and SC will go to Trump. It will then be hard to see Haley staying in after losing her home state.