Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:49 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
LordMortis wrote: I have about a year's worth of living expenses as my safety net and it needs to stay that way..
In this era of consumer debt spending hell, you're a god damn super hero. Congrats.

That's because I don't live on much. Other people would suggest I have about a good summer vacation's worth of savings. A year's worth of Mortis Living Expenses wouldn't even buy two people a round trip business class ticket to Australia.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:51 pm

Well, living so frugally is also a super hero ability, so congrats on that!

Don't forget to treat yourself occasionally. You're gonna die one day, so you've got to find some enjoyment along the way before that. I take great satisfaction when I manage to accumulate some savings, but I also like new computers and video games and such.

Life's too short to not take advantage of what it offers you from time to time.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:38 am

OK, now that might be considered 'blood in the streets'.

Hold on to your knickers, it's gonna get rough!

xwraith · Post by **xwraith** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:47 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:OK, now that might be considered 'blood in the streets'.

Hold on to your knickers, it's gonna get rough!

I forgot to withdraw some orders over the weekend, oops. Fortunately not too much money, but things are crashing down to 52 week lows, and beyond this am.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:57 am

S&P "only" down 4.3% now, though! Quite an improvement already!

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:57 am

I put my stop loss in last week. My SPY shares sold off this morning at 184.45.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:21 am

This is the first month I don't have a lot of market shorts on since I took a lot of positions off prior to vacation. I have some SQQQ calls but not nearly enough to stop the bleeding. I think the only outright short I have is SIRI ($3.50 SEPT puts).

In silver-lining news, every single one of my GTC call orders got filled this morning, which was nice since they were all closing out covered calls at a nickel.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:21 am

I really need to go back to not paying attention, as I'm getting LordMortis syndrome watching it recover from my selloff point.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:19 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:I really need to go back to not paying attention, as I'm getting LordMortis syndrome watching it recover from my selloff point.

It is better to have the learning experience now rather than later. I did mine too.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:22 pm

Did what?

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:25 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Did what?

Had my investing learning experience. It was bad. I think everyone goes through it.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:30 pm

My cost basis on those shares was in the $13x.xx range, so I still made money since I bought them before the 2009 bottom. I'm not pulling my hair out, and I have no illusions about every being able to retire with my current debt load and income prospects.

I'm just hoping that we're near the ceiling and I can find some bargain. But without devoting large amounts of research to things, I'm not prepared to put the money back into an index fund until I get a clear future indicator.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:32 pm

I don't know if it's good or bad that work has been kicking my ass. I've literally been putting in 16 to 20 hour days. I never had time or brain power to indulge my LordMortis Syndrome this morning. I probably would have put in more money if I did and I really should not be throwing any more money into the market after I put money in last week. That would take me dangerously close to scared shitless if I woke up unemployed tomorrow.

Oh but how cool would it have been to have doubled my VTI position I picked up last week at 104 for about 95 this morning, which I would have been sorely tempted to do... And only cool, assuming it all doesn't hit the shitter again....

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:47 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:My cost basis on those shares was in the $13x.xx range, so I still made money since I bought them before the 2009 bottom.

I had no money in 2009. I naturally got out of debt in time to start making contributions to an IRA and "the market" in December of last year right at the peak. Since then, about 10% of my investment is in the ether so far, but all of my investments are dividend yielding, so I'm sure I'll be paying some sweet taxes for privilege of watching my long term savings lose value.

This too shall pass... So I haven't yet gotten my learning experience. I'd like to say it's "don't contribute jack shit when you believe the market is overvalued" but the truth is I have no patience for that. Part of investing money, is making sure I put it away with an eye for retirement and don't end up spending it on hookers and blow.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:21 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:My cost basis on those shares was in the $13x.xx range, so I still made money since I bought them before the 2009 bottom.
"don't contribute jack shit when you believe the market is overvalued"

Even that seemingly simple lesson is fraught with peril. When is the market overvalued? Does the term even have any meaning? (big rabbit hole there)

If we believe that "overvalued" does have meaning, and can be defined and identified, how sure are you that your belief aligns with a current period of overvaluation (i.e you THINK it's overvalued now, but it's not)?

Also, what is the definition of the word "is"?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:29 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:
LordMortis wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:My cost basis on those shares was in the $13x.xx range, so I still made money since I bought them before the 2009 bottom.
"don't contribute jack shit when you believe the market is overvalued"
Even that seemingly simple lesson is fraught with peril. When is the market overvalued? Does the term even have any meaning? (big rabbit hole there)

If we believe that "overvalued" does have meaning, and can be defined and identified, how sure are you that your belief aligns with a current period of overvaluation (i.e you THINK it's overvalued now, but it's not)?

Also, what is the definition of the word "is"?

Aye. This is compounded by my ignorance. I simply don't know, which is why I put in so much (for me) in the last year. I really need to learn more about the market and its history but who has time for that when a light work week is 50 hours and you have a home to ignore maintenance on and chores that you can't ignore.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:29 pm

I haven't heard the drumbeat as loudly that I remember from 1999 and 2007. It's always there, but it's a lot lower in volume than those years. At this point, it's spooks and volatility to my thinking.

Besides, my SPYs were ~6% of my investments. If I were really spooked, I'd be moving my old 401k to cash reserves, and I'm not freaking out about it.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:32 pm

After 2007 I basically re-oriented things towards my eventual retirement ( 6-7 years off still). I know I probably missed out on some income but I am also comfortable knowing this correction won't hurt me to bad.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:43 pm

Scuzz wrote:After 2007 I basically re-oriented things towards my eventual retirement ( 6-7 years off still). I know I probably missed out on some income but I am also comfortable knowing this correction won't hurt me to bad.

That's exactly what I want to do, but I seem to have no idea how to approach it.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:47 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Scuzz wrote:After 2007 I basically re-oriented things towards my eventual retirement ( 6-7 years off still). I know I probably missed out on some income but I am also comfortable knowing this correction won't hurt me to bad.
That's exactly what I want to do, but I seem to have no idea how to approach it.

Research "defensive portfolios" from reputable sources.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:12 pm

noxiousdog wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:Did what?
Had my investing learning experience. It was bad. I think everyone goes through it.

Worried About The Stock Market? Whatever You Do, Don't Sell

Financial markets around the world continued to melt down today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1,000 points at one point this morning (it has since rebounded). Asian and European shares are down even more. Oil has fallen below $40 a barrel.

Here’s what you need to know: Don’t sell.

Let me try that again, with greater emphasis: Do. Not. Sell.

Got it? Good. You can stop reading. The rest of this article is for people who aren’t convinced.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:18 pm

Too late. After a high of over 210, my stop loss order was for 185. It triggered before I knew there was a problem.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:20 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Too late. After a high of over 210, my stop loss order was for 185. It triggered before I knew there was a problem.

This was presented to you as a learning experience. I'm in agreement with that sentiment. The math in the linked article may or may not be aligned with your current investment priorities, and may bring focus to the lesson at hand.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:34 pm

There's a lesson about stop-loss orders there too.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:35 pm

AKA the 'I'd like to realize my losses, please' order type.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:45 pm

Zaxxon wrote:AKA the 'I'd like to realize my losses, please' order type.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:18 pm

me wrote: Since then, about 10% of my investment is in the ether so far, but all of my investments are dividend yielding, so I'm sure I'll be paying some sweet taxes for privilege of watching my long term savings lose value.

Did I say 10%?

But if I throw more money in now, my percentage of losses go down right? So that means I'm making money, right? So I should move toward draining my savings toward index funds, right?

The Meal wrote: Worried About The Stock Market? Whatever You Do, Don't Sell

That's what I keep telling my self since I started in December and began watching the slow leak but my self hits back with, "they can't really QE, debt ceiling, or lower the interest rates much more since 2008, can they?" The my schiziod self says "it's an opportunity. You need to just need to take a chance. Now is an excellent time to drain you rainy day savings and score."

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:11 am

Settlement Date 08/27/2015

Maybe I can get back in on Friday.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:14 am

For those of you that aren't speculating and are having psychological trauma with the market, here's something that might help.

Stop thinking of it as dollar figures. Think of it only as ownership of the companies you're investing in. Do you want to own them? Do you not want to own them? Yes, what someone else will offer for them changes, but has the fundamental reason you bought them in the first place changed?

Price certainly makes a difference when you buy, and if someone were going to offer you a stupid amount, you can sell. But between those two price points there's a lot of room for normal business ownership. Be an owner, not a corporate raider. Those are always the bad guys in the movies

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:31 am

noxiousdog wrote:For those of you that aren't speculating and are having psychological trauma with the market, here's something that might help.

Stop thinking of it as dollar figures. Think of it only as ownership of the companies you're investing in. Do you want to own them? Do you not want to own them? Yes, what someone else will offer for them changes, but has the fundamental reason you bought them in the first place changed?

Price certainly makes a difference when you buy, and if someone were going to offer you a stupid amount, you can sell. But between those two price points there's a lot of room for normal business ownership. Be an owner, not a corporate raider. Those are always the bad guys in the movies

I own more Disney and Boeing today than I did on Friday.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:36 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: I own more Disney and Boeing today than I did on Friday.

I picked up more Apple.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:41 am

I turned over my assets to a wealth manager last week ... and they are in the middle of re-allocating ... so I have no idea what I own right now.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:41 am

if I had more money to give, I'd be picking up stuff. As it goes, I keep email asking me to justify the bad judgement and planning of others at different locations and my fear for my job is way too high to give up more of my savings during this turbulence, which looks like it is/was a good opportunity.

And Disney is one of things I would have looked at after increasing my index percentages. While others are getting out I feel I need more of that... get this... stability that index funds offer. I'm probably working toward getting myself to 50-50 Index funds/individual stocks (and eventually bonds when I feel I know them better)

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:35 pm

Lord Mortis - you made the news (well, CNBC)

The Inspiring Story of the Worst Market Timer Ever

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:51 pm

So how did "Bob" do after these 42 years of epic market misfortune? Actually, he made money.

Gawd, I hope that will be me. I'm only at about 12 years of worst timing possible to make investments if you include purchasing a home. But I keep investing and I keep losing net worth. I've yet to pull back my money on a single investment.

Of course, whether the future will resemble the past remains an unanswerable question.

This is actually a fear of mine but I keep holding back the bile of this fear. I look to the future and at the past. Electronic and software company rises could be seen a mile off as could Amazon and Google. In the foreseeable future, we don't have those, except for the companies that win Fiber and the companies the bring 3D printing to the average home. There are no clear winners here.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:46 am

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:27 pm

I can't see this leading to better profits, only worse cars:

Despite GM CEO Mary Barra rejecting Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne’s pleas for a merger multiple times, Marchionne continues to push aggressively for a deal, Automotive News reports.

I can hear the GM CEO's response - "shop your shittier than our cars business elsewhere, we have enough problems".

Biyobi · Post by **Biyobi** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:56 pm

Pyperkub wrote:I can't see this leading to better profits, only worse cars:

Despite GM CEO Mary Barra rejecting Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne’s pleas for a merger multiple times, Marchionne continues to push aggressively for a deal, Automotive News reports.
I can hear the GM CEO's response - "shop your shittier than our cars business elsewhere, we have enough problems".

I don't think that link goes to where you think it does.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:18 pm

Fixed - though somewhat appropriate (follow the link in Biyobi's quote to see the original)

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:03 pm

FYI for those thinking of holding, or buying oil related stocks:

Excerpt from a recent Morningstar's evaluation of BP:

"Further, our originally anticipated point of global supply and demand coming into balance continues to get pushed further into the future, and it appears increasingly likely that crude markets will not approach any semblance of normalcy until 2017. This, in turn, has led to a collapse in near-term investment that has unleashed cost and currency deflation exceeding our previous expectations, resulting in lower industry break-even levels across the board."

So think about it: Iran will likley be coming back online in terms of the intl market since sanctions will be lifted, US producers continue to knock it out of the park, regarding efficient production, so it will likely be a loooong time before oil gets even close to $100. Decade? Who knows.