Justice League Loses... VILLAINS WIN

[Remus West]

I also suspect the evil forum went something like "Son of a Bitch. We are hosed." When the mind blast information was posted and stessier was already out in public.

Additionally, lying would explain why neither Scoop nor stessier were attacked either night since they have both been outed.

[stessier]

Because Sinestro's blast could have converted him during the day. Before his lynch. Hence the two blasts.

If a Special Ability used by a Villain would Kill RR, he is instead CONVERTED to Villain

He chooses a Target and that Players Abilities are negated during that phase

Sinestro doesn't have the ability to kill anyone during the day so he does not have the ability to convert RR during the day.

Good point. So what does this mean?

What happens when the Green Lantern/Sinestro chooses me?
Miracle Man - stays Dead if killed that Phase.
Rocket Red - dies instead of Converting. Reveals as Hero.

Does it just mean if Sinestro hit him during the day, that he would die rather than convert at night? So the same if I shot him now - he couldn't be converted tonight?

[Remus West]

It does give me pause though that the role Grundbegriff claims also allows him to explain his nightly survival.

[Scoop20906]

If we have two baddies instead of one, then we have even less time, and should therefore embrace the shorter path even more.

Please explain two baddies. What am I missing.

[stessier]

I shudder to say this but I trust Grundbegriff on this. I also believe RMC's claim (no reason to come forward claiming a role we would need to kill if he isn't that role). Thus, I think stessier is the last evil.

I mean, I was ready to vote for you, so it seems only fair. Sorry about that by the way. Old habits...

Still, it's not me as you'll see when I'm lynched. If I'm right, though, there is no threat of RR converting tonight (if he's really a hero). So I think that changes the math.

[Remus West]

To stessier:

It seems really straight forward to me. If RR is targeted by either Sinestro or Green Lantern during a phase in which he would be converted he is instead actually killed and remains on the Hero team. Thus, S/GL target him at night and they attack him....he dies and shows as Hero. S/GL target him during the day and the Hawks target him - he dies and remains a Hero so shows as Hero regardless of the alignment of the Hawks.

Basically it does what S/GL's ability says it will. His power is ignored and he is treated like a Normal. Until he is converted he is a Hero so when he dies he shows as such.

[Scoop20906]

In other words: either RMC is evil and lying or you're evil and cornered.

I suspect the latter, but I think RMC is the sensible lynch no matter what-- for the same reason RMC himself provided.

And now Grund is editing his post as well.

What are you trying to do?

[stessier]

To stessier:

It seems really straight forward to me. If RR is targeted by either Sinestro or Green Lantern during a phase in which he would be converted he is instead actually killed and remains on the Hero team. Thus, S/GL target him at night and they attack him....he dies and shows as Hero. S/GL target him during the day and the Hawks target him - he dies and remains a Hero so shows as Hero regardless of the alignment of the Hawks.

Basically it does what S/GL's ability says it will. His power is ignored and he is treated like a Normal. Until he is converted he is a Hero so when he dies he shows as such.

Ah, I wasn't considering what other people might be out to kill him. That does make sense.

So yeah, unless people are willing to take out Grund today, I think we have to lynch RMC.

That will leave it me versus Grund tomorrow. Faaaaabulous.

[Scoop20906]

Because Sinestro's blast could have converted him during the day. Before his lynch. Hence the two blasts.

Ok. This. This. This.

[stessier]

Because Sinestro's blast could have converted him during the day. Before his lynch. Hence the two blasts.

Ok. This. This. This.

Keep reading - Remus seems to have the correct read on our powers.

[Grundbegriff]

If we have two baddies instead of one, then we have even less time, and should therefore embrace the shorter path even more.

Please explain two baddies. What am I missing.

On the premise that RR was converted magically in a prior round, there would be a possibility of 4 baddies rather than 3.

From my vantage:
Good:
Scoop: Captain Marvel
Isgrimnur: Dr Fate
Grundbegriff: Elongated Man
stessier claims to be Green Lantern.
RMC claims to be Red Rocket.

Vorret: Riddler (dead)
Moliere: Sinestro (dead)
???: Possible original 3rd villain (alive)
RMC: Converted Red Rocket (alive)

Ergo, two baddies is a logically possible scenario if it's possible for RMC to have been converted on a prior round. However, I don't think that's what we're actually facing.

[Grundbegriff]

In other words: either RMC is evil and lying or you're evil and cornered.

I suspect the latter, but I think RMC is the sensible lynch no matter what-- for the same reason RMC himself provided.

And now Grund is editing his post as well.

What are you trying to do?

Trying to add that second sentence.

[Scoop20906]

Because Sinestro's blast could have converted him during the day. Before his lynch. Hence the two blasts.

Ok. This. This. This.

Keep reading - Remus seems to have the correct read on our powers.

I'm wondering why you saw it this way at all.

[Scoop20906]

To don't buy Grund's reason for waiting.

I haven't trusted stessier from the beginning.

I believe RMC.

Smart move is to kill RMC today and then pick between Grund or Stressier tomorrow.

[stessier]

Because Sinestro's blast could have converted him during the day. Before his lynch. Hence the two blasts.

Ok. This. This. This.

Keep reading - Remus seems to have the correct read on our powers.

I'm wondering why you saw it this way at all.

Because I read

If a Special Ability used by a Villain, he is instead CONVERTED to Villain

not

If a Special Ability used by a Villain would Kill RR, he is instead CONVERTED to Villain

I still don't know why he fired off the two blasts and I'm as paranoid as you.

[Grundbegriff]

So yeah, unless people are willing to take out Grund today, I think we have to lynch RMC.
That will leave it me versus Grund tomorrow. Faaaaabulous.

Let's take it slow and be sure, though.

If we're quite sure that RMC cannot have been converted on any prior turn, then he is one of two things:

(1) A good, uncoverted Red Rocket
or
(2) An evil liar.

If he's a good, unconverted Red Rocket and we lynch you, stessier, right now, then we win instantly. Conversion risk is irrelevant.
If he's an evil liar and we lynch you right now, then we do not win instantly, but we know that lynching RMC on the next turn wins the game. Conversion risk is irrelevant.
Therefore, conversion risk is irrelevant.

Conversion risk only comes into it if there's another evildoer outside RMC-- someone to do the attacking/converting. And the only candidates for that role are you and I. So It doesn't matter which one we off, as long as we save me for last.

I'm chuckling, because I understand how that fact will make some of you feel. But truly... I'm Elonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnngated Man!

[Grundbegriff]

Because Sinestro's blast could have converted him during the day. Before his lynch. Hence the two blasts.

Ok. This. This. This.

Keep reading - Remus seems to have the correct read on our powers.

I'm wondering why you saw it this way at all.

Because I read

If a Special Ability used by a Villain, he is instead CONVERTED to Villain

not

If a Special Ability used by a Villain would Kill RR, he is instead CONVERTED to Villain

I still don't know why he fired off the two blasts and I'm as paranoid as you.

How like you, stessier, to neglect to nail down the nuances of a role assigned to you at the beginning of the game. Why do you fall so far short of meticulous?

[Grundbegriff]

To don't buy Grund's reason for waiting.

Because it's unlike me to set a trap?

[Scoop20906]

Of course and if you were waiting to spring the trap you would also wait if you ready to lie about as well.

[Grundbegriff]

Of course and if you were waiting to spring the trap you would also wait if you ready to lie about as well.

Suppose I'm evil. When RMC claimed to be the fourth Special, I had the following options:

(1) Call attention to myself by claiming to be the fourth Special and casting doubt on the other two unproved claimants.
(2) Keep a low profile.

On your understanding, why would I do (1) rather than (2) if I were evil?

Bear in mind that if I'm evil, then avenue (1) means the evildoer is in the set {stessier, RMC, Grundbegriff} and avenue (2) means the evildoer is in the set {stessier, RMC, Grundbegriff, El Guapo, Remus West}.

[Remus West]

(0) El Guapo
(0) Scoop20906
(0) Remus West
(0) RMC
(0) Grundbegriff
(0) Stessier

The Uncoverted Scenario:
GGGGGE (5 good, 1 evil)

After missed lynch: GGGGE
After night kill: GGGE
After missed lynch: GGE (E victory)

Two misses, and we fail. Do we have room to force a G victory?

Scenario 1A:

1. We lynch RMC, as RMC himself suggests, so that we no longer have to think about the conversion scenario.
2. We lynch stessier and win.

OR

Scenario 1B:
1. We lynch stessier or me, which allows a night on which the one not lynched, if evil, can convert RMC.
2. We lynch one member of the set {whoever wasn't lynched in step 1, possibly-converted RMC}
3. We lynch the other member of that set.

On my reckoning, we do not have time for Scenario 1B to guarantee victory. From my perspective, Scenario 1A guarantees victory. So I'm a fan of 1A.

Anyone who trusts me (given my breadcrumbs and the way I chose to come out) should also see the wisdom of 1A.

Currently, if RMC is telling the truth regarding his role he is still good. Thus we stand at 5-1 good versus bad.
Miss today: 4-1
Tomorrow day: 3-2 lynch kill leaves 3-1 ----- or possibly 3-1 if they do not attack RMC and lynching the other stessier/Grundbegriff wins us the game.
Night leave 2-1 lynch kill leaves 2-0.

Based off that, I say we lynch stessier today. If there is a night we then lynch RMC if there is no kill at night and Grundbegriff if there is a kill at night.

If RMC is lying we are at 5-1(RMC) if we lynch stessier 4-1, night kill 3-1, lynch Grundbegriff 2-1, night kill - victory RMC.

If RMC is telling the truth then his conversion or not is immaterial as the set of baddies must be within {stessier, Grundbegriff, RMC} regardless of his truthfulness and without a Joker the bad guys can not extend it further. If 2 of those three are hits then we win regardless of our lynch order.

[Grundbegriff]

...
The Uncoverted Scenario:
GGGGGE (5 good, 1 evil)

After missed lynch: GGGGE
After night kill: GGGE
After missed lynch: GGE (E victory)

Two misses, and we fail.
...

Currently, if RMC is telling the truth regarding his role he is still good. Thus we stand at 5-1 good versus bad.
Miss today: 4-1
Tomorrow day: 3-2 lynch kill leaves 3-1 ----- or possibly 3-1 if they do not attack RMC and lynching the other stessier/Grundbegriff wins us the game.

Right so far. After a miss today and a death tonight, it's 3G v 1E.
That scenario requires a hit tomorrow; a miss loses the game.

The other possible outcome after a miss today is a night conversion, leaving 3G v 2E, as you say. But that scenario cannot happen. If we lynch stessier and he's good, then RMC is evil and there's nobody to convert; he's simply lying about Red Rocketness. But if we lynch RMC and he's good, then there's nobody to convert, since he was the only conversion candidate.

The conversion scenario cannot arise unless I'm evil, and I'm not.

Based off that, I say we lynch stessier today. If there is a night we then lynch RMC if there is no kill at night and Grundbegriff if there is a kill at night.

There's a fallacy here. Assume for a moment-- correctly!-- that I'm good.:

If stessier's also good and we lynch him today, then that proves there's nobody eligible for conversion; RMC is simply evil. So there will have to be a kill at night, because evil RMC cannot convert anyone. If you then proceed to lynch me because there was a kill at night, we lose the game by numbers.

The only way we win is to win in two kills or fewer; and those have to be stessier and RMC, in whatever order, because I'm good. Killing me uses up a turn, and we don't have space for more than one miss.

[stessier]

It is impressive to watch Grund spin.

The Bad Guy is not RMC. You don't claim RR at that point if you're a Bad Guy because he'd have to by lynched. The Bad Guy is Grund.

Lynch me today, then lynch Grund tomorrow. Good guys win.

 stessier 
 

[Grundbegriff]

The Bad Guy is not RMC. You don't claim RR at that point if you're a Bad Guy because he'd have to by lynched.

Not a bad point.

 stessier 
 

(I'm assuming you're ready to bring this to a close.)

[stessier]

My only request - PROMISE ME you lynch Grund tomorrow. Don't listen to him - just lynch him.

And no one else vote for me until Chaos answers my questions - just in case we missed something. I'm fine with dying - just want to make sure RMC couldn't have been converted by those Sinestro blasts.

[Grundbegriff]

My only request - PROMISE ME you lynch Grund tomorrow. Don't listen to him - just lynch him.

[stessier]

I admire you ability to twist and squirm. The planting of early evidence was quite nice. I knew we should have lynched you first.

[Grundbegriff]

I admire you ability to twist and squirm. The planting of early evidence was quite nice. I knew we should have lynched you first.

What's the point? In a turn-- two at the most-- it'll be clear that I am, in fact, Elongated Man. It'll be clear that everything I've said has been clear guidance toward victory for Team Good.
Why bother to throw shade?

If, by some fluke, you're actually the Green Lantern, then RMC's decision to feign a Superhero role will go down in the annals as Yet Another entry in the Decidedly Odd Tactics category. But we'll still win, so we're on a nearly mechanical track at this point.

The funny thing is that if you're evil, then it'll never come to my being executed; the game will end. And if you're not evil and I'm tomorrow's lynchee instead of RMC, all you'll have done is blow the game!

[stessier]

I'm remarkably fine with that. Cracked eggs and all that jazz.

[Scoop20906]

I'm pretty well convinced of what we should do but I'd like to hear El Guapo's opinion before casting my vote.

[Chaosraven]

Rocket Red scenarios:
Harley Quinn or Parasite -

Say HQ/Parasite has the ability of: Green Arrow. As RR is a Hero, he falls under the quantity "either a Hero or a Villain" and would die if shot by the real Green Arrow. As a Parasite copy would be a Villanous attack RR ability would cause him to be converted instead.

If HQ/Parasite had Hawk Attack ability, this would convert RR
If either actual Hawk is Villainous, attack is Villanous

Joker:
if Joker tries to blow RR up, he instead becomes a Villain

-----------------------------

Night potential


If Martian Manhunter was in contact with RR and either was targeted with Night Attack, MM would die and RR would be converted.

Negation:
If either GL/Sinestro negate RR ability, his ability is null for that PHASE. Night or Day Phase are separate. They do not carry over.


Did I miss any?

[Scoop20906]

Unofficial Vote Count

PLAYERS
(0) El Guapo
(0) Scoop20906
(0) Remus West
(0) RMC
(0) Grundbegriff
(2) Stessier - scoop20906, stessier, grundbegriff

Six remain
Majority is 4

[Scoop20906]

Stessier, please remove your self-vote until we can get this all sorted out.

[El Guapo]

I'm pretty well convinced of what we should do but I'd like to hear El Guapo's opinion before casting my vote.

I'm still catching up and processing - a lot has happened in the past day and a half! - but my initial impression is that the likelihood of our villain from highest to lowest is: stessier, grund, then RMC. Of course RMC was one of my top suspects going into today...but his actions are the hardest to explain if he's secretly a villain.

[El Guapo]

Thinking about Grund - I don't think it's possible for him to be spoofing a deceased elongated man, because we didn't miss any night kills (so his power wasn't activated). BUT since Grund waited until every other hero had come forward, to the point where him coming forward meant that someone was lying, he could reasonably claim any unclaimed role without fear of being contested.

[El Guapo]

Also, if understand the math here - it's essentially certain that the remaining villain is among the group [stessier, RMC, Grund], right? And we also know that we don't have enough misses to run through that entire group without missing, but (even factoring in RMC getting converted), we DO have enough misses to hit two out of three (even if we don't lynch RMC first), right?

So we only lose if we put the actual villain third on the lynch list?

[El Guapo]

Does anyone think that RMC is the most likely villain?

[Grundbegriff]

Also, if understand the math here - it's essentially certain that the remaining villain is among the group [stessier, RMC, Grund], right? And we also know that we don't have enough misses to run through that entire group without missing, but (even factoring in RMC getting converted), we DO have enough misses to hit two out of three (even if we don't lynch RMC first), right?

So we only lose if we put the actual villain third on the lynch list?

That is a correct summary in all the particulars.

[Grundbegriff]

Does anyone think that RMC is the most likely villain?

Going just on externals, I'd rank us

stessier, because not knowing and clarifying the rules pertaining to his own character is very unstesslike
Grundbegriff, because coming out last to claim an unprovable character who happens to be immune to night-death seems awfully conveeeeenient
RMC, because he's last on the list and his "kill me now" move seems quite unvillainous.

However, armed with my knowledge that I'm not a Villain, I also know the better ranking is

stessier
RMC
Grundbegriff

[Scoop20906]

Ok, do we want to try to end this today?

MY gut has scream evil stessier the whole game. His refusal to zap Moliere made no sense to me since it would have proven him and killed a baddie. I believe RMC because if Grund hadn't come along we would have probably killed him so his timing as a good guy makes sense. Also, what a tough good guy power he got. Finally Grund's timing is good as it proves we have a lying good guy but his claim is way too convenient but could be true.

I will say this for Stessier if he turns out to be he final baddie. Dude, you are a pitbull and claiming green lantern early almost worked for you. Good work.
Right now there are two votes on stessier. Would anyone be adverse to voting for him so I could get just one more kill vote?