Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[noxiousdog]

If there's already in-school learning going on, I am not surprised at all that the band director would think outdoor sales are reasonable.

[Kraken]

When you do have to be around other people, use a mask — but not just any mask. The other lesson of the new variants, Frieden told Vox, is that we need to get better at masking.

like that's going to happen any more now than it has before

My Costco is in the heart of Trump's rabid suburban entitlement and denial. My last run was in early December and I was very pleasantly surprised at how draconian their mask mandating was and limiting of store occupancy was. I went yesterday. Well, that didn't last long. They were checking people and forbidding entry to those without masks but throughout the store below the nose wearing was ubiquitous, one person had their mask around their neck, all of the barriers put up to keep the flow of traffic from bouncing off each other were removed and so things were looking like they did during the summer again, when people showed no consideration and stores acted defeated.

MA businesses are limited to 25% of capacity (including employees), so the supermarket had a kid with a clicker stationed at the door yesterday, keeping a running tally. The store wasn't busy anyway on a Thursday afternoon. The day before, I had to keep an ophthalmology appointment; their voicemail warned that both eyes would be dilated and I should be sure to bring a driver. I enlisted Wife, but they wouldn't let her into the waiting room. She ended up going back home, then coming back to pick me up. People are still complying with the mask mandate, with only a few rebels cheating by exposing their noses. Massholes are growing as weary of this as anyone else, but still playing along.

[El Guapo]

When you do have to be around other people, use a mask — but not just any mask. The other lesson of the new variants, Frieden told Vox, is that we need to get better at masking.

like that's going to happen any more now than it has before

My Costco is in the heart of Trump's rabid suburban entitlement and denial. My last run was in early December and I was very pleasantly surprised at how draconian their mask mandating was and limiting of store occupancy was. I went yesterday. Well, that didn't last long. They were checking people and forbidding entry to those without masks but throughout the store below the nose wearing was ubiquitous, one person had their mask around their neck, all of the barriers put up to keep the flow of traffic from bouncing off each other were removed and so things were looking like they did during the summer again, when people showed no consideration and stores acted defeated.

MA businesses are limited to 25% of capacity (including employees), so the supermarket had a kid with a clicker stationed at the door yesterday, keeping a running tally. The store wasn't busy anyway on a Thursday afternoon. The day before, I had to keep an ophthalmology appointment; their voicemail warned that both eyes would be dilated and I should be sure to bring a driver. I enlisted Wife, but they wouldn't let her into the waiting room. She ended up going back home, then coming back to pick me up. People are still complying with the mask mandate, with only a few rebels cheating by exposing their noses. Massholes are growing as weary of this as anyone else, but still playing along.

Local place restrictions are going up. The nearby toy store has suspended in person shopping for the foreseeable future. A few restaurants are shutting down, hopefully just temporarily.

[Isgrimnur]

MA businesses are limited to 25% of capacity (including employees), so the supermarket had a kid with a clicker stationed at the door yesterday, keeping a running tally.

Is there a click for those leaving, or is it a Shopper Motel?

[Kraken]

MA businesses are limited to 25% of capacity (including employees), so the supermarket had a kid with a clicker stationed at the door yesterday, keeping a running tally.

Is there a click for those leaving, or is it a Shopper Motel?

He was clicking every time someone passed through either door.

The practice was widespread during the spring surge, but yesterday was the first time I'd seen it in the current one. In the spring we were limited to one person per household, but I haven't seen that enforced lately.

[El Guapo]

Does this more transmissible coronavirus variant (soon to be the dominant version) change anything about the types standard safety protocols? I assume it's still wear a mask, avoid close contact (especially indoors) right? Like, the methods of transmission aren't any different - like, this doesn't spread via surface contact or anything like that, right?

[Kraken]

Does this more transmissible coronavirus variant (soon to be the dominant version) change anything about the types standard safety protocols? I assume it's still wear a mask, avoid close contact (especially indoors) right? Like, the methods of transmission aren't any different - like, this doesn't spread via surface contact or anything like that, right?

What I've heard is I need to upgrade my mask collection. Single-layer cotton masks aren't going to cut it. I have a couple with filters, but need to get some surgical or N95 masks. The advice said that double-masking helps if you can't get the good ones. (I haven't tried yet...need to shop for a bunch of things this weekend...been too busy to do that.)

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I thought the recommendation was always for at least two layers for masks? I’m not sure how much a single layer mask actually protects.

[ImLawBoy]

So, when they say "surgical masks", what exactly do they mean? A while back we bought a bunch of paper masks thinking they'd be easier for my oldest son to keep on when he goes to medical appointments (they weren't). These look like medical masks and they say that they have 3 layers. They also say they are "not for medical use". Are these superior to multi-layer cloth masks? Should I start using those when I have to go out?

[Max Peck]

I've been double-masking since before it was cool. I wear a double-layer resuable cotton mask over disposable procedure masks. I started doing that partly for the extra filtering and partly because the procedure masks give a better seal across the top of my face, so I have less hassle from fogged-up glasses.

[Daehawk]

Wonder why I bother sometimes. So many people not wearing them. Plus I can smell everything in stores. My breathing seems to come in from the top of my mask and out the top. If I have sunglasses on they fog up. The mask may help with direct droplets but finer ones lingering in the air are simply going to come in the top of my mask and into my nose.

[noxiousdog]

Wonder why I bother sometimes. So many people not wearing them. Plus I can smell everything in stores. My breathing seems to come in from the top of my mask and out the top. If I have sunglasses on they fog up. The mask may help with direct droplets but finer ones lingering in the air are simply going to come in the top of my mask and into my nose.

Viruses are magnitudes bigger than "smell" molecules.

[LawBeefaroni]

Wonder why I bother sometimes. So many people not wearing them. Plus I can smell everything in stores. My breathing seems to come in from the top of my mask and out the top. If I have sunglasses on they fog up. The mask may help with direct droplets but finer ones lingering in the air are simply going to come in the top of my mask and into my nose.

You're not wearing the mask to stop things from getting in, you're wearing it to stop things from getting out.

It may offer some protection to you but the main reason for wearing is to protect others.

[Jaymon]

Wonder why I bother sometimes. So many people not wearing them. Plus I can smell everything in stores. My breathing seems to come in from the top of my mask and out the top. If I have sunglasses on they fog up. The mask may help with direct droplets but finer ones lingering in the air are simply going to come in the top of my mask and into my nose.

I recommend finding a mask with a stiffer metal bit on the top, so it holds shape. Most masks I have tried it yes, just goes straight up beside my nose, but I found one with a strong metal bar that holds shape really well, and that solved for me.

these are the ones I like

https://tmasks.com/face-masks/blank-fac ... ering-bulk


It doesn't advertise as having a stronger metal bar, but that is my experience.

[Daehawk]

Shame Im protecting the non maskers. Maybe around them Ill pull my mask down and cough a lot.

[Skinypupy]

So, the President of the LDS Church received the vaccine today and posted about it on FB.

The 3K+ comments that follow are a horrifying mish-mash of "we weren't going to get vaccinated...but now we will because you did!" and "Jesus told me not to get vaccinated".

Ugh.

[Daehawk]

Wonder how many countries are working on weaponizing COVID?

[LawBeefaroni]

Wonder how many countries are working on weaponizing COVID?

I can name three.

[Combustible Lemur]

If there's already in-school learning going on, I am not surprised at all that the band director would think outdoor sales are reasonable.

This, along with Smoove's earlier post is the crux of my concern.

The super controlled, structured, and professionally cleaned schools are working so lets add in sportz. (we'll ignore that most of the outbreaks are coming feom there) and start approving and encouraging goup activities and events.

Schools/ parents are testing the fences more and more. An arms race of what can we get away with without causing an outbreak.
All while the numbers are ever increasing. We're at a high of infections, christmas delay is ramping up, a new super variant is spreading quickly and a chunk of people are pushing for even more lax rules. While there may be data that warrants some activities and not others. There is definitely a psychology cost to push push push, stop being worry warts, people you know havent died. Meanwhile traffic is picking up and everyone is getting more exhausted.

I have great sympathy for peraonal reaponsibilty, i am not comfortable with mandating making a 15 yr. Old responsible for killing grandma. Theirs or mine.


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[Paingod]

Are we up to four variants now?

The original flavor, the UK brand, the South African one, and now a German revision?

[Defiant]

Are we up to four variants now?

The original flavor, the UK brand, the South African one, and now a German revision?

I believe there's a Brazilian one, too, based on one news broadcast I watched. And maybe a Nigerian one? (I think that might have been a misstatement. Edit: Nope, see below.)

[Defiant]

Brazilian:

https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2021/ ... discovered

Nigerian:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN28Y1B7

[El Guapo]

What's the definition of a 'variant' anyway? You assume that there are going to be minor variations in a virus place to place, even if that might mean something small like a 51% transmission rate rather than a 50% transmission rate or something. At what point do minor differences become a "variant"?

[hitbyambulance]

Are we up to four variants now?

The original flavor, the UK brand, the South African one, and now a German revision?

there are surely dozens that just haven't been picked up yet

[Ralph-Wiggum]

There are probably tons of variants out there if we call any virus with any changed part of the genetic code a variant. I don't know how it is properly defined, but it my guess would be it is either something like " > x % change in the genome" or "change in the genome that significantly affects transmission/impact".

[malchior]

This data out of the UK is very disturbing,

Almost a third of recovered Covid patients will end up back in hospital within five months and one in eight will die, alarming new figures have shown.

Research by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found there is a devastating long-term toll on survivors of severe coronavirus, with many people developing heart problems, diabetes and chronic liver and kidney conditions.

Out of 47,780 people who were discharged from hospital in the first wave, 29.4 per cent were readmitted to hospital within 140 days, and 12.3 per cent of the total died.

The current cut-off point for recording Covid deaths is 28 days after a positive test, so it may mean thousands more people should be included in the coronavirus death statistics.

Researchers have called for urgent monitoring of people who have been discharged from hospital.

Study author Kamlesh Khunti, professor of primary care diabetes and vascular medicine at Leicester University, said: “This is the largest study of people discharged from hospital after being admitted with Covid.

“People seem to be going home, getting long-term effects, coming back in and dying. We see nearly 30 per cent have been readmitted, and that’s a lot of people. The numbers are so large.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, I've been following that for a few days - waiting to see more data an information. I'm actually waiting for the news media to pick up on what's coming out of a study in South Africa related to immunity and a new variant circulating. Way more information is needed, but (in short) the study suggests prior exposure and/or vaccination aren't protective to this new strain. Again, needs so much more in-depth analysis and follow up but it's definitely one to watch. It really reinforces how important it is to get everyone on this damn planet vaccinated - and quickly. The more this virus circulates, the more chances it can mutate. We need to shut this down ASAP.

[Daehawk]

Wont happen on this planet with this species. Maybe the next one.

[The Meal]

Are we up to four variants now?

More.

Three listed as "emerging":

Spoiler:

B.1.1.7 lineage (a.k.a. 20I/501Y.V1 Variant of Concern (VOC) 202012/01)

This variant has a mutation in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein at position 501, where amino acid asparagine (N) has been replaced with tyrosine (Y). The shorthand for this mutation is N501Y. This variant also has several other mutations, including:
69/70 deletion: occurred spontaneously many times and likely leads to a conformational change in the spike protein
P681H: near the S1/S2 furin cleavage site, a site with high variability in coronaviruses. This mutation has also emerged spontaneously multiple times.
ORF8 stop codon (Q27stop): mutation in ORF8, the function of which is unknown.
This variant is estimated to have first emerged in the UK during September 2020.
Since December 20, 2020, several countries have reported cases of the B.1.1.7 lineage, including the United States and Canada.
This variant is associated with increased transmissibility (i.e., more efficient and rapid transmission).
Currently there is no evidence to suggest that the variant has any impact on the severity of disease or vaccine efficacy.
B.1.351 lineage (a.k.a. 20H/501Y.V2)

This variant has multiple mutations in the spike protein, including K417T, E484K, N501Y. Unlike the B.1.1.7 lineage detected in the UK this variant does not contain the deletion at 69/70.
This variant was first identified in Nelson Mandela Bay, South Africa, in samples dating back to the beginning of October 2020, and cases have since been detected outside of South Africa.
The variant also was identified in Zambia in late December 2020, at which time it appeared to be the predominant variant in the country.
Currently there is no evidence to suggest that this variant has any impact on disease severity.
There is some evidence to indicate that one of the spike protein mutations, E484K, may affect neutralization by some polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies.1,2
P.1 lineage (a.k.a. 20J/501Y.V3)

The P.1 variant is a branch off the B.1.1.28 lineage that was first reported by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) in Japan in four travelers from Brazil, sampled during routine screening at Haneda airport outside Tokyo.
The P.1 lineage contains 17 unique amino acid changes and 3 deletions.
This variant contains three mutations in the spike protein receptor binding domain: K417T, E484K, and N501Y.
There is evidence to suggest that some of the mutations in the P.1 variant may affect its transmissibility and antigenic profile, which may affect the ability of antibodies generated through a previous natural infection or through vaccination to recognize and neutralize the virus.
A recent study reported on a cluster of cases in Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon region, in which the P.1 variant was identified in 42% of the specimens sequenced from late December.3 In this region, it is estimated that approximately 75% of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV2 as of October 2020. However, since mid-December the region has observed a surge in cases. The emergence of this variant raises concerns of a potential increase in transmissibility or propensity for SARS-CoV-2 re-infection of individuals.
This variant has not yet been identified in the United States.

Scores listed as variants:

[El Guapo]

Yeah, I've been following that for a few days - waiting to see more data an information. I'm actually waiting for the news media to pick up on what's coming out of a study in South Africa related to immunity and a new variant circulating. Way more information is needed, but (in short) the study suggests prior exposure and/or vaccination aren't protective to this new strain. Again, needs so much more in-depth analysis and follow up but it's definitely one to watch. It really reinforces how important it is to get everyone on this damn planet vaccinated - and quickly. The more this virus circulates, the more chances it can mutate. We need to shut this down ASAP.

So the new study suggests that the current vaccines don't work on the SA strain? Is it just that they're less effective, or not effective at all?

If the latter, does that suggest that the current vaccination efforts won't do anything, since presumably the SA strain is going to get out and become the dominant strain if the vaccines protect against the other strains but not this one?

[Smoove_B]

So the new study suggests that the current vaccines don't work on the SA strain? Is it just that they're less effective, or not effective at all?

It's a super small serum study (i.e. happened in a lab) where about half of the exposures to this new strain did not result in recognition of the antigen.

If the latter, does that suggest that the current vaccination efforts won't do anything, since presumably the SA strain is going to get out and become the dominant strain if the vaccines protect against the other strains but not this one?

This is where it's tricky because the study doesn't involve actual humans - just their blood serum. How this would look inside an actual person with a fully-functioning immune system is the mystery and where we need to do more studies. But just seeing this suggests the building blocks for having a variant circulating that is unaffected by the vaccine or prior exposure (and the development of natural immunity) is concerning. And yes, that could potentially mean vaccination overall is less effective and depending on the variant you're exposed to the level of protection offered might be different.

To be clear, this variant isn't more deadly, it just has a slightly different presentation to the human body that might make it less-likely to be recognized and therefore a full immune response (based on prior exposure to another variant or vaccination) more difficult.

If that impacts whether or not it ultimately becomes the more dominant circulating strain, I'm not sure, but I guess in theory it's possible.

I don't know if it's 100% analogous, but a few years back (2014) there was a new strain of Meningitis circulating that had originated in Europe. The existing vaccination was not protective, so there was a scramble to get the right vaccine (which was approved for use in Europe) approved and available here i the U.S. where the outbreaks were occurring.

[Daehawk]

Map

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... and-cases/

[Smoove_B]

Was not expecting this to hit so hard, mainly because I'm a robot. I'm pretty confident this is the first public acknowledgment of the scale of loss that someone White House-adjacent has made.

https://twitter.com/drsanjaygupta/statu ... 8077190155

Memorials matter. There has been no center of grief during this pandemic. The virus has kept us apart, meaning so much of our unimaginable loss has taken place behind closed doors. We haven’t been able share our grief.

[malchior]

A moving moment and the absurdity of everything is on display. 400K people *DEAD*. In the background you can see all the boats patrolling the river with Washington looking like it is under siege. All because of one evil, monstrous man and a machine that is still enabling him.

[LawBeefaroni]

A moving moment and the absurdity of everything is on display. In the background you can see all the boats patrolling the river. 400K people *DEAD*. Washington under siege.

Instead of providing logistics for a national vaccination effort, the Guard is providing security against a Trump-led insurgency. America!

[YellowKing]

I remember telling a co-worker in March that 400,000 dead from this pandemic would be a catastrophic worst-case scenario. Even under Trump, I did not believe my government would let us down to that degree. And not only did they let us down, 70 million people cheered them on. It sickens me.

[Isgrimnur]

74.2 million voted to keep on keepin' on.

[Kraken]

By Johns Hopkins' count we're just a whisker under the 407k American combat deaths in WW2. We'll probably hit that milestone on Biden's first full day in office. That comparison really resonates with me for some reason...maybe because the war casualties died fighting fascism and the covid victims are partly a result of its resurgence?

[malchior]

If you really get introspective it isn't surprising. My belief in America as a good nation was shattered by Sandy Hook. They cheered slogans churned out by the corrupt NRA to minimize that school children were murdered. And that wasn't rock bottom. We have a nation that values money and petty issues over human life over and over. History is not going to be kind to the culture of the people of the United States during this time period.

[Paingod]

Was not expecting this to hit so hard, mainly because I'm a robot. I'm pretty confident this is the first public acknowledgment of the scale of loss that someone White House-adjacent has made.

Also the first time during the pandemic that someone in the president's seat had a shred of human empathy.

I heard Biden speaking this morning on NPR and almost drove off the road. I had no idea how much it would mean to me to have a sane person running the country again. I don't love Biden at all as a politician, but I think he's about as good a person as we could get in there right now.