Octopus Overlords

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has stated that its goal is to eliminate the virus, known as H5N1, from cattle. But that messaging has left scientists scratching their heads about how exactly officials plan to stop further transmission given that the impediments persist. It’s also not clear whether the virus could burn out, or if cows are vulnerable to reinfection.

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Other countries are taking notice. Last month, a committee of scientific advisers alerted the French government to the “unprecedented situation” happening 4,000 miles away, saying that while the start of the virus’s spread among cows had not yet increased the threat to people, it was concerning enough that the government needed to take its own measures.

“The situation is serious,” Bruno Lina, a virologist and member of the committee, told STAT, noting that European countries were already expanding their surveillance systems to include cows. “It has to be taken seriously in the U.S., and that is what we expect from the U.S.”

But by just about all accounts, not enough is being done.

To gauge the risk of the situation and assess the response, STAT spoke with a range of experts both in the U.S. and internationally. What emerges is a portrait of a threat that is steadily rolling along, yet also settling into what feels like a routine. Nearly every day, a few new herds are found to have infections, entrenching the virus deeper into the cattle population and expanding its footprint across more states. As of Tuesday, 126 herds in 12 states have reported infections, although those figures are widely assumed to be underestimates because many farmers are refusing to test. Three farmworkers, in Texas and Michigan, are known to have developed mild cases of H5N1, presumably from close contact with cows.

But if the dynamics of the outbreak haven’t changed, neither, experts say, has the forcefulness of the response.

While the situation presents both scientific and logistical challenges, a chief concern is that neither the government nor outside scientists know just how far and wide the virus has spread because critical data have either not been collected or transparently relayed. The government still does not have an adequate surveillance system in place to keep up with the outbreak, scientists say.

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“If you still can’t determine the scale of the outbreak, and which states, what farms, what herds, are actually being affected, I don’t see how you can possibly think that it’s containable,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan.

But the government’s own data indicate the efforts have holes large enough for the virus to run through. In one USDA survey, 60% of farms acknowledged moving cows within a state even after the animals had started showing symptoms of infection. Federal officials have acknowledged they’re not getting much cooperation from dairy producers and workers.

“The more we learn about H5N1, the more we understand that good biosecurity is a critically important path to containing the virus,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack wrote last week in an op-ed in the media outlet Agri-Pulse, calling on farmers to step up the use of PPE, limit traffic onto their farms, and increase cleaning and disinfection practices in their barns and milking parlors

In some ways, experts say, the bird flu outbreak is exposing the same systemic obstacles that hobbled the U.S. performance during the Covid-19 pandemic. The response is falling on various local, state, and federal agencies with limited authorities and disparate, sometimes competing, agendas. In this case, it’s a balkanization compounded by the need for public health officials to collaborate with agricultural agencies, which are often tilted to supporting industry instead of prioritizing reining in threats to human health. State agricultural agencies are also underfunded and understaffed; meanwhile, some portion of the public is resistant to measures to track and control the virus.

“There seems to be a lot of issues between the agencies, the federal government, the states, the farmers,” said Florian Krammer, a flu virologist at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine in New York. “It’s not looking like everybody’s on the same side trying to get rid of the problem.”

Many scientists acknowledge the tightrope that government officials are treading. Fearful of overstepping, agencies are reluctant to use the full extent of their legal authority to demand testing on farms — something that could lead to a political backlash in an election year. Such a response would be perhaps all the more likely in a post-Covid pandemic world, and would impede whatever receptiveness farmers are showing.

Nearly a year into the first outbreak of the bird flu among cattle, the virus shows no sign of slowing. The U.S. government failed to eliminate the virus on dairy farms when it was confined to a handful of states, by quickly identifying infected cows and taking measures to keep their infections from spreading. Now at least 875 herds across 16 states have tested positive.

Experts say they have lost faith in the government’s ability to contain the outbreak.

“We are in a terrible situation and going into a worse situation,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada. “I don’t know if the bird flu will become a pandemic, but if it does, we are screwed.”

“It’s disheartening to see so many of the same failures that emerged during the covid-19 crisis reemerge,” said Tom Bollyky, director of the Global Health Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Far more bird flu damage is inevitable, but the extent of it will be left to the Trump administration and Mother Nature. Already, the USDA has funneled more than $1.7 billion into tamping down the bird flu on poultry farms since 2022, which includes reimbursing farmers who’ve had to cull their flocks, and more than $430 million into combating the bird flu on dairy farms. In coming years, the bird flu may cost billions of dollars more in expenses and losses. Dairy industry experts say the virus kills roughly 2% to 5% of infected dairy cows and reduces a herd’s milk production by about 20%.

Worse, the outbreak poses the threat of a pandemic. More than 60 people in the U.S. have been infected, mainly by cows or poultry, but cases could skyrocket if the virus evolves to spread efficiently from person to person. And the recent news of a person critically ill in Louisiana with the bird flu shows that the virus can be dangerous.

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“Even if there’s only a 5% chance of a bird flu pandemic happening, we’re talking about a pandemic that probably looks like 2020 or worse,” said Tom Peacock, a bird flu researcher at the Pirbright Institute in the United Kingdom, referring to covid. “The U.S. knows the risk but hasn’t done anything to slow this down,” he added.

Beyond the bird flu, the federal government’s handling of the outbreak reveals cracks in the U.S. health security system that would allow other risky new pathogens to take root. “This virus may not be the one that takes off,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, director of the emerging diseases group at the World Health Organization. “But this is a real fire exercise right now, and it demonstrates what needs to be improved.”

Will Clement, a USDA senior adviser for communications, said in an email: “Since first learning of H5N1 in dairy cattle in late March 2024, USDA has worked swiftly and diligently to assess the prevalence of the virus in U.S. dairy herds.” The agency provided research funds to state and national animal health labs beginning in April, he added.

The USDA didn’t require lactating cows to be tested before interstate travel until April 29. By then, the outbreak had spread to eight other states. Farmers often move cattle across great distances, for calving in one place, raising in warm, dry climates, and milking in cooler ones. Analyses of the virus’s genes implied that it spread between cows rather than repeatedly jumping from birds into herds.

Milking equipment was a likely source of infection, and there were hints of other possibilities, such as through the air as cows coughed or in droplets on objects, like work boots. But not enough data had been collected to know how exactly it was happening. Many farmers declined to test their herds, despite an announcement of funds to compensate them for lost milk production in May.

“There is a fear within the dairy farmer community that if they become officially listed as an affected farm, they may lose their milk market,” said Jamie Jonker, chief science officer at the National Milk Producers Federation, an organization that represents dairy farmers. To his knowledge, he added, this hasn’t happened.

The rising number of cases not linked to farms signals a need for more testing in general. When patients are positive on a general flu test — a common diagnostic that indicates human, swine, or bird flu — clinics should probe more deeply, Nuzzo said.

The alternative is a wait-and-see approach in which the nation responds only after enormous damage to lives or businesses. This tack tends to rely on mass vaccination. But an effort analogous to Trump’s Operation Warp Speed is not assured, and neither is rollout like that for the first covid shots, given a rise in vaccine skepticism among Republican lawmakers.

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2024 6:06 pm They had a rock-solid plan to not lose control, and it worked: Never take control to begin with.

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:51 pm The idea that health is community-wide, and that when you make a decision for you, you're affecting the health of your friends, family, and coworkers, effectively forcing your decisions on others - well, that is all smart and sciency. Smart and sciency isn't cool anymore.

@captivedreamer7 wrote:captive dreamer @captivedreamer7
Remembering this insane COVID moment from 2020 when LA officials filled the Venice Beach skatepark with 37 tons of sand to prevent people from using it.

[ video depicting the front loader filling the Venice Beach skatepark with sand ]

Anonymous Bosch wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2024 9:18 pm The public officials involved in making that decision should have been forced to dig the sand back out with a teaspoon, but I very much doubt they've faced any negative consequences for their malfeasance. Feckless public health decisions have lasting consequences. They dictate how communities engage with health guidelines and policies, chipping away at trust in public health authorities like a persistent leak in a roof. This erosion of confidence breeds skepticism about health recommendations, leading to a decline in public compliance and, inevitably, worse health outcomes. We ought not pretend that such absurd policy blunders that were made in the name of "smart and sciency" public health were just minor hiccups; they deserve a spotlight, rather than a spot under the rug.

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Dec 20, 2024 9:32 pm Examples like that are extreme, and not at all representative of the things that the far right started claiming were absurd. By the end, masks, vaccines, and ventilation were being treated the same way as filling a skate park with sand. And half of the things that they now say didn't work, would have. They "didn't work" because a minority of assholes confused the message to the point that none of them (including masking and vaccines) were ever fully implemented to begin with.

The anti-anything people with hundreds of thousands of corpses in the wake of their political posturing aren't worth a handful of that sand. Collectively.

@captivedreamer7 wrote:captive dreamer @captivedreamer7
The most deranged thing was how much censorship on social media there was at the time. You'd be banned for even questioning this or ridiculing it.

The accelerating spread of bird flu through US poultry flocks is pushing the price of eggs to highs rivaling or exceeding the cost in December 2022 at the height of the post-pandemic inflation scare.

The average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $3.65 in November, up from $3.37 in October, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week, up from $2.50 at the start of the year, as farmers battle with a fatal strain of H5N1 that continues to disrupt the US egg supply.

The US egg-laying hen flock was down 3% in October from the year prior, or 315m birds, and egg production was down 4%, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The latest consumer price index, or CPI, shows that the price of eggs is up 37.5% from a year ago. Food prices overall rose 2.4% over the same period

The agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, told Reuters that the agency has funds to buy some poultry vaccine and it would be logical for the incoming Trump administration to continue supporting vaccine development.

US farmers issued a call in September, ahead of the wildfowl migration season, for the Biden administration to allow vaccinations for chickens, turkeys and cows against bird flu.

Lawmakers say the USDA should accelerate its vaccine research. “It is obvious that the current outbreak has no end in sight,” a dozen members of Congress, led by the representatives Randy Feenstra, a Republican, and Democrat Jim Costa, said in a letter to Vilsack.

Vilsack previously said that a vaccine campaign could be a barrier to exports if import countries perceive that the vaccine could be masking the presence of the virus.

“Widespread vaccination of commercial poultry is not possible in the short term,” Vilsack wrote in a March letter to members of Congress reported by Reuters.

"I won on the border, and I won on groceries," he told NBC's Kristen Welker. "Very simple word, groceries. Like almost -- you know, who uses the word? I started using the word -- the groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that. We're going to bring those prices way down."

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:23 pm Hey, I ate chicken once, and I'm autistic. I never made the connection before!

I'll let everyone on Twitter know, thanks.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 1:21 pm I'd prepare to be hearing more about it in 2025.

Worrying as those severe cases are, the new report about the Louisiana patient contained some reassuring findings, scientists said.

For one thing, the mutations seemed to develop as the virus adapted to its human host. The genetic changes were not present in H5N1 samples from a backyard poultry flock that infected the patient, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

That suggested that viruses in nature had not yet acquired the concerning mutations. Still, every additional human case gives H5N1 more opportunities to adapt to people, potentially making it more capable of spreading from one person to the next.

That poses an even greater risk as the flu season continues. In someone infected with both H5N1 and the seasonal flu, the viruses might swap genes, potentially making the bird flu capable of spreading between people as efficiently as the seasonal flu does.

“If there are all these people getting infected, that provides so many opportunities for the virus to better adapt,” Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, said of bird flu.

“It has the potential to really harm a lot of people,” she said.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 1:33 pm Well, if it goes the way many are fearing you won't need to think about anything else for a while. So you have that going for you.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 1:21 pm I'd prepare to be hearing more about it in 2025.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 1:33 pm If you read between the lines, it's not what has been found that's most concerning, it's that just like COVID-19, we're doing fuckall about it. This means that we're just allowing nature to continue to roll the dice and that increases the chances (as it spreads to more people) that the right combination of

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 2:49 pm

Unagi wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 2:38 pm If you want to actually increase readership, I would run with Dairy Cow Price of Eggs Feline Bird Flu Outbreak

Bird flu ripped through a Washington state wildlife sanctuary, killing 20 big cats, the center said in a Facebook post, calling the deaths a "significant loss."

The first cat got sick around Thanksgiving, Mark Mathews, director of the Wild Felid Advocacy Center in Shelton, told NBC affiliate KING of Seattle. By early December, the state had confirmed cases of bird flu in their cats.

A pet food company in Oregon sent out a voluntary recall after a house cat died from eating its products, which tested positive for bird flu, and the company says the same contaminated batch was sold in British Columbia.


Northwest Naturals in Portland, Oregon, says in a statement that it is recalling one batch of its two-pound Feline Turkey Recipe raw frozen pet food after it tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus.

Max Peck wrote: Mon Dec 30, 2024 7:06 am *Bam* *Bam* *Bam*

Alefroth wrote: Mon Dec 30, 2024 3:18 pm

Max Peck wrote: Mon Dec 30, 2024 7:06 am *Bam* *Bam* *Bam*

Yeah, I forget this really shouldn't be political.

The seasonal influenza vaccine contains strains of viruses from distinct virus subtypes, but most people who are vaccinated will mount a strong immune response to one strain, leaving them vulnerable to infection by the others. Researchers have long wondered whether host genetics or prior exposure to virus strains impacts more on these variable responses.

A study by Stanford Medicine scientists now indicates that host genetics is a stronger driver of individual differences in influenza vaccine response. The team’s reported study also presents a novel vaccine platform that improved protection against diverse influenza subtypes when tested in animal models and in human tonsil-derived organoids. The research suggests that the new approach might also be used to help protect against new flu variants with pandemic potential.

Research lead Mark Davis, PhD, professor of microbiology and immunology and the Burt and Marion Avery Family Professor of Immunology, and colleagues, reported on their findings in Science, in a paper titled “Coupling antigens from multiple subtypes of influenza can broaden antibody and T cell responses.”

After a 92-7 vote in the US Senate, it’s official: A dairy industry executive will serve as agriculture secretary under President Biden. Tom Vilsack, who also held the post during the entire Obama presidency, returns to the US Department of Agriculture after a four-year stint as president and CEO of the Dairy Export Council, an industry trade group.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was the only non-Republican to vote against Vilsack. “I like Tom and I’ve known him for years. I think we need somebody a little bit more vigorous in terms of protecting family farms and taking on corporate agriculture,” Sanders told reporters after the vote, the Hill reports. “I think he’ll be fine, but not as strong as I would like.” He added in a statement:

I opposed his confirmation today because at a time when corporate consolidation of agriculture is rampant and family farms are being decimated, we need a secretary who is prepared to vigorously take on corporate power in the industry.

Burr Ridge residents Linda and Russell Meyers were out on their daily coffee run Friday when something strange caught their eye in Hinsdale — a bald eagle standing by the curb, its head drooping.

“We like to go around different areas, and all of a sudden we just saw this bird in the street,” Linda Meyers said. “I did a double take, but it did not look well, so that was cause for concern, and we decided to call somebody.”

She said they stopped and sat on Madison Street, north of Ogden Avenue, with the eagle for about a half hour after putting out the call for help. The raptor twice found enough energy to briefly fly, the second time into a wooded area where it was later found and captured by handlers from Midwest Bird Collision Monitors.

“It definitely was having trouble flying, and I knew it was something neurological, which is a sign of bird flu,” Meyers said. “I wasn’t surprised to find out that was what it was.”

The following day, the eagle was euthanized at the Forest Preserve District of DuPage County’s DuPage Wildlife Conservation Center after it was suspected of being infected with bird flu, according to Beth Schirott, a spokeswoman for the Forest Preserve District.