Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by Grifman »

I figured we’re going to need a thread to discuss the Trump economy.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Are the tariffs really going to happen? Seems like more nonsensical Trump bluster. 60% across the board tariffs on all Chinese goods? Maybe some targeted tariffs in the 10% range get through but not the shit he is talking. It's like "Mexico will pay for the wall" type nonsense.


Plus his stupid Bibles and Trump shoes and all the other cheap garbage he peddles would get hit.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Grifman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 3:35 pm More here:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/11/06/her ... allet.html
The Tax Policy Center and Peterson Institute for International Economics predict the typical U.S. household would pay roughly $2,600 to $3,000 more per year due to higher prices.
With a $15,000 annual income, that would represent an across-the-board increase in costs of 20% of my total income, and is enough that I'd be back to choosing between gas and food - and I mean that literally. And that is just the tariffs.

So, yeah - I'm also hoping it's just bluster, as I have no tools to prepare for that - I can't move investments around, or shift savings, or ask for a raise, or get a better job, or anything else. I just have to grit my teeth and hope.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by Holman »

I feel like there are Republicans with huge amounts of profit at stake who will talk (and, if that fails, bribe) Trump out of his tariff scheme.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Holman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:21 pm I feel like there are Republicans with huge amounts of profit at stake who will talk (and, if that fails, bribe) Trump out of his tariff scheme.
Is it wrong for me to root for Trump on this one? I have a half-baked theory that Trump won because he wasn't bad enough. 60% tariffs across the board would help push him into "more bad" territory.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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I fully expect that about 80 percent of what he promised was just hot air. He promised similar populist proposals the first time around and rarely did he fulfill those promises.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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raydude wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:23 pm
Holman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:21 pm I feel like there are Republicans with huge amounts of profit at stake who will talk (and, if that fails, bribe) Trump out of his tariff scheme.
Is it wrong for me to root for Trump on this one? I have a half-baked theory that Trump won because he wasn't bad enough. 60% tariffs across the board would help push him into "more bad" territory.
As much as I want to see Trump thrown under the bus, I'm not sure that I'd be willing to throw hundreds of thousands under there with him.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Yeah I think this is bullshit. I know there are people like Musk who actually want to tank the economy and rebuild it in their image, but I think Trump's going to get pushback from the party to not crater things and set up a midterm wipeout.

My only consolation in all of this is that Trump is terrible at actually getting anything done. It's small comfort given he now has lots of underlings using him for their own terrifying agendas, but I'm hoping incompetence and laziness blunts at least some of his campaign proposals.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Powell isn’t backing down:

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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Holman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:21 pm I feel like there are Republicans with huge amounts of profit at stake who will talk (and, if that fails, bribe) Trump out of his tariff scheme.
The problem is that there will no longer be any adults in the room to talk Trump down. His admin will be full of sycophants and loyalists. Competency will not be a core job requirement.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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I think you underestimate how impossible it is to work for Trump though. That's the one saving grace in all this. They had to install motor driven revolving doors the last time due to the speed and quantity of people that pissed him for doing things like using too many vowels in a word. As a result, many of the things he wanted to do were never realized (and not just because they were bat shit insane).

Never bet against Trump's mythical inability to work with others.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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YellowKing wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:34 pm Yeah I think this is bullshit. I know there are people like Musk who actually want to tank the economy and rebuild it in their image, but I think Trump's going to get pushback from the party to not crater things and set up a midterm wipeout.

My only consolation in all of this is that Trump is terrible at actually getting anything done. It's small comfort given he now has lots of underlings using him for their own terrifying agendas, but I'm hoping incompetence and laziness blunts at least some of his campaign proposals.
Was terrible. He's now got committees of Heritage Foundation and Federalist zealots and Leons to get shit done. Or more practically, to stop shit from getting done, except by them, while lining their own pockets. They've been working on plans for the last four years.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:42 pm I think you underestimate how impossible it is to work for Trump though. That's the one saving grace in all this. They had to install motor driven revolving doors the last time due to the speed and quantity of people that pissed him for doing things like using too many vowels in a word. As a result, many of the things he wanted to do were never realized (and not just because they were bat shit insane).

Never bet against Trump's mythical inability to work with others.
The problem is there was a revolving door because eventually they got tired of dealing with him and having to push back. They weren’t rabid loyalists. The people coming in are zealots and loyalists. They WANT what Trump wants. They will be happy to indulge his idiocies because they want the same thing, or know the way to power is the support Trump unwaveringly. In fact it is extremely likely that they will be competing to prove their loyalty to him by being even more zealous. There will be no guardrails in his admin, just sycophants competing with each other to outdo one another.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Grifman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:41 pm
Holman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:21 pm I feel like there are Republicans with huge amounts of profit at stake who will talk (and, if that fails, bribe) Trump out of his tariff scheme.
The problem is that there will no longer be any adults in the room to talk Trump down. His admin will be full of sycophants and loyalists. Competency will not be a core job requirement.
Musk doesn't want tariffs. China would retaliate and Tesla has huge exposure there. Musk opposed Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs this year because of it.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Is it wrong of me to be almost excited to see Musk suffer under Trump's administration in ways he obviously didn't think about?
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 5:41 pm Is it wrong of me to be almost excited to see Musk suffer under Trump's administration in ways he obviously didn't think about?
He won't. That's why there won't be the promised tariffs.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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....or any cuts to the 3.6 billion dollars budgeted for SpaceX, I'm guessing. Those will mysteriously disappear from the line items that Musk will be reviewing during his cost cutting bonanza.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by Holman »

Grifman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:41 pm
Holman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:21 pm I feel like there are Republicans with huge amounts of profit at stake who will talk (and, if that fails, bribe) Trump out of his tariff scheme.
The problem is that there will no longer be any adults in the room to talk Trump down. His admin will be full of sycophants and loyalists. Competency will not be a core job requirement.
But you don't have to be in the administration to offer to rent Mar-a-Lago for one weekend at a special deluxe price of five billion dollars.

And remember, Trump always believes the last person he spoke to (provided they flattered him sufficiently). And there's really no one who has anything to gain from wrecking the economy with tariffs.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 5:44 pm ....or any cuts to the 3.6 billion dollars budgeted for SpaceX, I'm guessing. Those will mysteriously disappear from the line items that Musk will be reviewing during his cost cutting bonanza.
Cost cutting is easy. He'll outsource all administrative jobs, including but not limited to CMS, DOL, GAO, DOD, and the DOJ, to a services company he creates (probably called Rasputin) that will do the work at half the price using Gronk AI, which is actually farmed out to an offshore call center full of humans. The call center will provide free labor in in return they get to keep any personal info they come across during the course of the job. Government payroll is $6.7T. A lot of that can be done by AI (offshored humans).
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Holman wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:46 pm And there's really no one who has anything to gain from wrecking the economy with tariffs.
<cough> Putin </cough>
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:47 pm probably called Rasputin
Dude. "Xgov" was sitting right there and you left it on the table.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:24 pm I fully expect that about 80 percent of what he promised was just hot air. He promised similar populist proposals the first time around and rarely did he fulfill those promises.
+1. We'll see some performative efforts to enact his major policy threats, but they'll come up short vs. expectations (like his border wall did). Trump only cares about policies that enrich him personally or expand his power. He's not ideologically motivated in any way.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Kraken wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 10:35 pm
hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:24 pm I fully expect that about 80 percent of what he promised was just hot air. He promised similar populist proposals the first time around and rarely did he fulfill those promises.
+1. We'll see some performative efforts to enact his major policy threats, but they'll come up short vs. expectations (like his border wall did). Trump only cares about policies that enrich him personally or expand his power. He's not ideologically motivated in any way.
Interesting that in the other thread we're already seeing anecdotal reports of businesses preparing for the effects of Trump tariffs though. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Guys like Stephen Miller and JD Vance absolutely are ideologically motivated. They'll be more than happy to do the heavy lifting while the great man relaxes on the golf course. They may or may not care about things like tariffs, but I will be very surprised if they don't get straight to work on the detention and deportation of whoever they deem undesirable.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Does Trumponomics read better?
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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raydude wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:06 am
Kraken wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 10:35 pm
hepcat wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:24 pm I fully expect that about 80 percent of what he promised was just hot air. He promised similar populist proposals the first time around and rarely did he fulfill those promises.
+1. We'll see some performative efforts to enact his major policy threats, but they'll come up short vs. expectations (like his border wall did). Trump only cares about policies that enrich him personally or expand his power. He's not ideologically motivated in any way.
Interesting that in the other thread we're already seeing anecdotal reports of businesses preparing for the effects of Trump tariffs though. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Oh, there will surely be some tariffs. Will they be the economy-crushing variety that trump threatens? On one hand, the oligarchy likes a growing economy. OTOH, if taken to the extreme where tariffs replace the income tax, the oligarchy are happy to see a shrunken government paid for entirely on the middle class. And it might even be popular, because who likes paying income taxes? So will tariffs be just enough to check off a campaign pledge, or will they go for broke? Who knows?

Likewise, many immigrants will be deported. But the economy requires cheap, exploitable labor. Trump threatened to deport 30 million people...the necessary police state and detention camps ain't gonna happen, although a show will be made. How many deportations does it take to tick off another campaign pledge, or to deter would-be future immigrants? Let's start with a hundred thousand and see how it goes.
Max Peck wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:07 am Guys like Stephen Miller and JD Vance absolutely are ideologically motivated.
For as long as the great man is sitting in the oval office their agendas are subject to his unpredictable whims. Who has pleased him more most recently?
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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How many detainees can fit into one Trump Tower? There's money to be made in building out detention capacity.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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He wants these 'Made in America' products, yet is anti-union, and many industries require unions for their factories, so I wonder how he expects anything to get made if he isn't supporting the workforce. :think: Not to mention the tariffs, that could make the prices soar.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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You are so cute thinking Trump will be restrained. That’s wishful thinking. He’ll cut deals based on his narcissistic ego. Anyone he deals with can be backstabbed at any time for perceived gain. Ask Mike Pence.

Trump even tried to say he wasn’t for the repeal of Roe v. Wade when it was hurting him. No principles other than self-preservation.

There will be nothing stopping Trump, except his incompetence, self-delusion and need to feed his supporters. And they are vicious little deplorable incels.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 1:01 am How many deportations does it take to tick off another campaign pledge, or to deter would-be future immigrants? Let's start with a hundred thousand a

Enough to create enough outrage that he can blame failure on the radical left so the faithful can actually grow more rabid? It'll be more than the last failure because more blood is demanded for the blood God. Enough to actually move radicalization on dreamer support so it will also be pointed to. He exists to foment hate and harness it for personal gain.
Zarathud wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 2:11 am There will be nothing stopping Trump, except his incompetence, self-delusion and need to feed his supporters. And they are vicious little deplorable incels.
Putin? If TFG doesn't play as he is supposed. Though I suppose there is a critical mass where if Putin exposes TFG, his support will say that Putin was being used to MAGA while Eastern Europe and Taiwan become targeted and SK move away from us at a quickening pace.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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I feel like I should save screenshots of today's prices of staple items: eggs, gas, milk, etc.

So that when the "disaster economy" we're living in on November 8, 2024 suddenly becomes the "greatest, most beautiful economy in the world" on Jan 20, 2025, people can be reminded that eggs were not, in fact, $36/dozen under Biden like they're claiming.

Because you' know with 100% certainty that they'll be claiming it.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Alefroth wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:49 am Does Trumponomics read better?
Yes!
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Skinypupy wrote:I feel like I should save screenshots of today's prices of staple items: eggs, gas, milk, etc.
I'm making it my life's work for the next four years to point out "THIS IS WHAT YOU VOTED FOR" every time someone complains about anything that is a result of Trump's policies.
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My same point, said better elsewhere this morning:
6 months from now this site is gonna be full of posts about how amazing egg, bacon, and gas prices are that are exactly the same price as they are now
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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Alefroth wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:49 am Does Trumponomics read better?
Depends. Are we talking about money, or about a new exercise craze?
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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YellowKing wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 11:06 am
Skinypupy wrote:I feel like I should save screenshots of today's prices of staple items: eggs, gas, milk, etc.
I'm making it my life's work for the next four years to point out "THIS IS WHAT YOU VOTED FOR" every time someone complains about anything that is a result of Trump's policies.
I won't be. It's fair to do so, but I think it's counterproductive. If people are constantly rubbing their noses in it (deservedly!), it will become a point of pride to deny it and lash out. If people are going to wake up, they need to realize the impact on their own, without already being conditioned to deny it.

In other words, the more you badger somebody about something that makes them look bad, the less effective it is.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

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YellowKing wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:34 pm Yeah I think this is bullshit. I know there are people like Musk who actually want to tank the economy and rebuild it in their image, but I think Trump's going to get pushback from the party to not crater things and set up a midterm wipeout.

My only consolation in all of this is that Trump is terrible at actually getting anything done. It's small comfort given he now has lots of underlings using him for their own terrifying agendas, but I'm hoping incompetence and laziness blunts at least some of his campaign proposals.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 11:50 am

I won't be. It's fair to do so, but I think it's counterproductive. If people are constantly rubbing their noses in it (deservedly!), it will become a point of pride to deny it and lash out. If people are going to wake up, they need to realize the impact on their own, without already being conditioned to deny it.
How many chances to they get to wake up on their own? At some point you have to force them out of bed or just leave them.

God knows I'm not going to want to bail out someone who voted their own job away or shelter someone who voted for their own deportation. My resources are best used on someone who didn't' choose to let the world burn.
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by Max Peck »

I vote "Yes" for Trumponomics over Trumponics. And call dibs on Trumpariffs™ if/when the new tariffs happen (even if he uses them to slap at Canada and Mexico instead of China).
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Re: Trumponics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

Post by Blackhawk »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:03 pm
Blackhawk wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 11:50 am

I won't be. It's fair to do so, but I think it's counterproductive. If people are constantly rubbing their noses in it (deservedly!), it will become a point of pride to deny it and lash out. If people are going to wake up, they need to realize the impact on their own, without already being conditioned to deny it.
How many chances to they get to wake up on their own? At some point you have to force them out of bed or just leave them.

God knows I'm not going to want to bail out someone who voted their own job away or shelter someone who voted for their own deportation. My resources are best used on someone who didn't' choose to let the world burn.
I'm not talking about bailing them out. In a year when prices are so high that they can't buy food, they'll look for answers. If we've already taken the real answer and turned it into something that they see as a point of pride to deny, they'll find a different answer, and never see the real one.

As long as both sides keep hanging onto spite and revenge as a way to 'get back at' the people who screwed them over, this will never end. We've got that cycle now - we win and treat them like shit, then they win and treat us like shit, then we win... It's getting us nowhere.
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