2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:53 am

Wiki

Bring on the storms!

Tropical Storm Arlene was 6/29 - 7/1 and headed across the Yucutan and Mexico.

Tropical Storm Bret was 7/17 - 7/22, bounced north of Bermuda, and never made landfall.

Tropical Storm Cindy was 7/20 - 7/23 and never made it out of the North Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Don is active in the gulf at the moment, having formed on 7/27, and is curerntly headed for the South Texas coast. It is expected for land fall late this evening, with a projected track pretty much straight for El Paso late Sunday. 3-6 inches of rain possible,

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:46 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Tropical Storm Don is active in the gulf at the moment, having formed on 7/27, and is curerntly headed for the South Texas coast. It is expected for land fall late this evening, with a projected track pretty much straight for El Paso late Sunday. 3-6 inches of rain possible,

Make that Tropical Storm Dud. It barely dropped an inch of rain in any of TX.

Jag · Post by **Jag** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:59 am

Irene!

Headed our way. Hopefully it will shift to the east based on some of the models. Probably won't know until tomorrow afternoon. If it doesn't, I have some hurricane prep to do on Wednesday.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:08 am

Thanks for the update, Jag. What year was it that they kept lining up for runs over Florida like it was a Linebacker target? I believe it was somewhere in the 2005-2007 seasons.

To bring us up to date:

Tropical Storm Emily was 8/1 - 8/7 and made landfall in Hispaniola

Tropical Storm Franklin was 8/12 - 8/14 and never made it out of the North Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Gert was 8/14 - 8/19 and made a hook shot well out to sea.

Tropical Storm Harvey was 8/19 - 8/22 and made landfall over the Yucatan peninsula.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:10 am

If it shifts east it might hit me, Jag!

Maybe we should have a poll as to who the OO community would most like taken out.

I've been through plenty of Cat 3 storms so that doesn't concern me too much. What does concern me is that we have several weak pine trees near our house we haven't had time to take down, and I'm afraid a Cat 3 would definitely be the final straw for them.

I don't usually evacuate unless they are threatening Cat 4 status, but this time we may have to considering we have a toddler. I really don't want to take any chances of a tree falling on the roof or something while she's inside.

Dramatist · Post by **Dramatist** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:33 am

I have been talking with others around here and we keep hoping for a tropical storm because we really need the rain. We were excited when Don looked like it might bring some rain but the dry air over Texas killed that storm before it even made landfall.

It is so dry here.... also very hot.

Jag · Post by **Jag** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:21 pm

YellowKing wrote:If it shifts east it might hit me, Jag!

We were talking about hitting NC in the office. The consensus is we don't care where it goes, as long as it's not here!

YellowKing wrote:I don't usually evacuate unless they are threatening Cat 4 status, but this time we may have to considering we have a toddler. I really don't want to take any chances of a tree falling on the roof or something while she's inside.

The concern with this one is the time it spends over the warm water of Hispaniola where it can really bulk up, grow in size and strength. Even if you plan to evacuate, try to designate a 'safe' room in your house. Preferably a place with no windows. In an emergency, throw a mattress on top to protect from debris. Remember if you plan on evacuating, so will many thousands of other people.

Isgrimnur wrote:Thanks for the update, Jag. What year was it that they kept lining up for runs over Florida like it was a Linebacker target? I believe it was somewhere in the 2005-2007 seasons.

Irene is the first hurricane of this season. 2005 was the most active and costliest season on record. That was the year of Wilma and Katrina and the one that gave everyone a very healthy respect for mother nature's fury.

Jag · Post by **Jag** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:03 pm

5pm Advisory is in:

Currently...the motion of the hurricane is being controlled
by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. However...the future
track will depend on the development of a large mid- to upper-level
trough along the East Coast of the United States.

The guidance is now in better agreement in turning
Irene northward along 78 or 79 degrees longitude. Although it is
still too early to be certain...the guidance trend continues to
lessens the threat to South Florida but increases the threat to the
Carolinas.

Do not to focus on the exact forecast track...especially at days 4
to 5...since the most recent 5-year average errors at those forecast
times are 200 and 250 miles...respectively.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201109.disc.html" target="_blank

Still way to early to tell. Only thing that seems consistent is that this thing is going to grow.

According to Jeff Masters:

The NOAA jet will be flying its first dropsonde mission into Irene today, which should result in a more reliable set of model runs first thing Tuesday morning.

So that should give us some better info by tomorrow morning.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:10 pm

We've been nailed by nasty storms this summer...the last big one blew down a 50-60 ft poplar that landed RIGHT beside my neighbor's house...missed crashing into their baby's room by a few feet I would guess. Right after that I had a tree guy come out and do his thing (trimming out our big oaks primarily, so the wind can get through them easily).

This is one reason I would never have pines, and I am not for cutting trees down in my yard, but Bradford pears and pines would have to go just because they are so fragile and unpredictable (esp. if they were anywhere near my house).

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:52 pm

This is one reason I would never have pines,

I hate pine trees with a passion. Not only are they the wimps of the tree kingdom and are guaranteed to topple in a strong hurricane, they are just an all around nuisance. They dump tons of straw in your yard that ends up killing your grass, drop pine cones and branches everywhere, they breed squirrels which are themselves a pest, and then their root structure loves to dig under your fence and just rip it up.

We got one big one cut down in our yard a couple of years ago because it was such an immediate threat, and have been trying to save up enough to get the rest removed (8 or 9, which is going to cost a fortune).

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:56 pm

YellowKing wrote:and have been trying to save up enough to get the rest removed (8 or 9, which is going to cost a fortune).

Ouch. What is that, like $4K, or you get some package deal?

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:46 pm

To get one removed and stump ground around here cost us $250, and that was considered an extreme bargain (typically it's $300-$400). So absolute best case scenario we'd be looking at $2000. Three grand would be more realistic. Considering we could put hardwood floors throughout the downstairs for the same price, we opted for that this year instead.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:53 pm

I hate pine trees with a passion.

How dare you disparage the mighty conifer.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:57 pm

You pine-haters might be happy to know that in a few decades they'll be retreating to higher latitudes. They don't take kindly to warm climates. (I like pine forests, but wouldn't invite one into my yard.)

Me and my tomato plants hope Irene doesn't decide to come barreling up the coast.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:15 pm

Kraken wrote:You pine-haters might be happy to know that in a few decades they'll be retreating to higher latitudes. They don't take kindly to warm climates. (I like pine forests, but wouldn't invite one into my yard.)

Transients? Pfft. Does not surprise me at all.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 7:06 am

YellowKing wrote:To get one removed and stump ground around here cost us $250, and that was considered an extreme bargain (typically it's $300-$400). So absolute best case scenario we'd be looking at $2000. Three grand would be more realistic. Considering we could put hardwood floors throughout the downstairs for the same price, we opted for that this year instead.

$250 bucks is a bargain. Was discussing this with some Floridians this past Sunday and they were saying $500 is a deal to have a tree removed and the stump ground. Guess it depends on where you are, because $250 was what it cost for the one tree I had to deal with in TX in May of 2010.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 8:18 am

Oh. F----

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:36 pm

Projected track is shifting East. Odds of you just getting sideswiped are getting better by the hour.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:39 pm

OTOH, that last graphic has a category 2 hurricane going directly over my tomato patch.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:53 pm

Yeah, we are still on alert here at work but everybody is breathing a little easier. Since it's supposed to hit in the middle of the night chances are I'll just sleep right through the tropical storm winds (if we even get those) and have a nice weekend to clean up the yard.

I'm really glad it's not hitting because I found out if it had I'd have to have worked late Friday night on storm prep and been back at work Sunday at 7am. Ugh.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:54 pm

Kraken wrote:OTOH, that last graphic has a category 2 hurricane going directly over my tomato patch.

I wonder how many category 1 hurricanes Maine has seen?

*Apparently not many.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:12 pm

The local media have begun to frenzy. We don't get many hurricanes up this way, either. The last direct hit was Hurricane Bob almost exactly 20 years ago.

My chief concern is that it will wipe out my vegetable garden. My second concern is that our cellar will flood. My third concern is that we'll lose power, and with it entertainment.

We're supposed to have unrelated thunderstorms tomorrow evening, and then the Irene rain will move in on Friday night or Saturday. Guess I'll be picking everything that's even remotely ripe on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, I'm hoping this thing veers west. West is better than east for us.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:11 pm

Yeah, we better hope it continues to track east:

"This is a huge storm," said CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras. "The cloud field is more than 800 miles across. The tropical storm force winds extend out 200 miles from the center."

Upgraded to a Cat3 now.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:21 pm

Save the rich people!

Meteorologists say the risk appears most acute for areas like the Hamptons, an eastern Long Island playground for New York's rich.

"If the storm followed the exact track of it, there could be considerable wind damage and tidal flooding out in those areas," said James Aman, senior meteorologist with WeatherBug. "There potentially could be some storm surge problems out around the eastern tip of Long Island, Rhode Island, Cape Cod, some of the areas around Boston that face Massachusetts Bay."
...
High net worth insurers like AIG (AIG.N) and Chubb (CB.N) are big players in those kinds of upper-class regions, where insured losses can total up quickly due to high property values as well as extensive collections of art and jewelry.

They are scrambling now to warn their customers to be prepared, to take the kinds of precautions that people in places like Florida take for granted.
...
There is only so much preparedness can do, though. Taylor said even the homes of the wealthy sometimes don't feature things like hurricane-strength glass and wind shutters, which are standard in parts of Florida but less common in the northeast.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:05 am

As of 11am they've nudged the forecast west again. This means we're back on the western fringe of the bullseye. Even if we don't get hit directly this is such a big storm we are definitely going to get smacked up pretty good.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:13 am

Looks like Maine is now just due for Tropical Storm strength.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:14 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Save the rich people!

Meteorologists say the risk appears most acute for areas like the Hamptons, an eastern Long Island playground for New York's rich.

"If the storm followed the exact track of it, there could be considerable wind damage and tidal flooding out in those areas," said James Aman, senior meteorologist with WeatherBug. "There potentially could be some storm surge problems out around the eastern tip of Long Island, Rhode Island, Cape Cod, some of the areas around Boston that face Massachusetts Bay."
...
High net worth insurers like AIG (AIG.N) and Chubb (CB.N) are big players in those kinds of upper-class regions, where insured losses can total up quickly due to high property values as well as extensive collections of art and jewelry.

They are scrambling now to warn their customers to be prepared, to take the kinds of precautions that people in places like Florida take for granted.
...
There is only so much preparedness can do, though. Taylor said even the homes of the wealthy sometimes don't feature things like hurricane-strength glass and wind shutters, which are standard in parts of Florida but less common in the northeast.

If this happens my wife's dad may be able to retire off this storm LOL. He's an insurance disaster adjuster/manager and this scenario would mean an insane amount of insured losses. Pretty much anything major hitting Manhattan obviously could do the trick. Just imagine given the east coast news bias what the news cycle is going to be like for a good long while if this verifies.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:15 am

Guess who is supposed to fly into DC on Sunday for a massive training event that starts on Monday?

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:00 pm

I see that the latest projections show the eye passing over the Berkshires, well to the west of Boston. That would mean more wind and less rain here. We're going to get walloped, though. "But one thing is certain, said Bill Simpson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Taunton. “We’re not getting out of this without some significant weather one way or the other,” he said. “This is not, like, ‘There it goes! Near miss.’”

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:00 pm

Our Governor has officially declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard. He's also asked shore residents and vacationers to start leaving over the next 24 hours and is apparently thinking of ordering a mandatory evacuation for shore communities depending on how the storm develops.

Suddenly I am overcome with the urge to get milk, eggs and bread.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:04 pm

Smoove_B wrote:Our Governor has officially declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard. He's also asked shore residents and vacationers to start leaving over the next 24 hours and is apparently thinking of ordering a mandatory evacuation for shore communities depending on how the storm develops.

Suddenly I am overcome with the urge to get milk, eggs and bread.

No toilet paper?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:06 pm

Can't afford the tax Florio put in place.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:07 pm

They are saying this could be the worst hurricane to effect the NC Outer Banks/Northeast in 50-60 years.

They're letting schools out at noon tomorrow and we're closing our business center down at noon as well. Looks like I'll probably have to be back at work for recovery procedures Saturday evening. Right now we're looking at sustained tropical storm force (60mph) winds with occasional higher gusts in our county. At least we're on the weak side of the storm, so hopefully it will blow through pretty quickly.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:22 pm

Yike. Be safe guys...looks like it will miss us completely.

Eightball · Post by **Eightball** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:40 pm

Smoove_B wrote:Our Governor has officially declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard. He's also asked shore residents and vacationers to start leaving over the next 24 hours and is apparently thinking of ordering a mandatory evacuation for shore communities depending on how the storm develops.

Suddenly I am overcome with the urge to get milk, eggs and bread.

I'm just happy it appears Hurricane Irene will do what has been traditionally impossible.

Clean up the Jersey Shore.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:17 pm

But it's going to leave an awful sheen on the rest of the state. Really, there are no winners here.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:38 pm

Be safe everyone.
I'll see you on youtube.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:40 pm

Vorret wrote:see you on youtube.

That might be one of the best "Good Luck!" tidings ever.

Jag · Post by **Jag** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:46 pm

Speaking of Youtube, storms in FL always bring out the wackiest of the wack. One year someone decided that tropical storm Fay was a good time to go Kite Surfing right into a building.

Edit: As soon as I posted that, the news came out with video of kite surfers taking advantage of Irene's outer bands.

Edit edit: Helllooo Kate Johnson

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:51 pm

I'm just happy it appears Hurricane Irene will do what has been traditionally impossible.

Clean up the Jersey Shore.

Yeah, we were watching The Weather Channel and the anchor said, "Now is probably not a good time to visit the Jersey Shore."

One of our engineers said, "Is any time a good time to visit the Jersey Shore?"