Texas Power Grid Collapse 2021

[malchior]

Now that we are in a 2nd day of rolling outages in one of the biggest states in the Union, I figured it was worth a R&P discussion. I find it depressing that we now have seen power infrastructure issues in 2 of our biggest and most populous states in the last 2-3 years. Interestingly the California and Texas issues actually have fairly significant differences in driving factors for the failure but my take away is that the supposedly wealthiest, most advanced nation in the world is seeing critical infrastructure failing at an alarming rate. It certainly amps up my America is a failed nation in decline lean.

As someone who worked for years previously at a company that serviced Ercot I can't help but empathize with folks there. Deregulation was confusing, they pushed smart meters on nearly everyone, and then they prioritized competition todrive down prices to the point that generation companies and the utilities couldn't maintain their own plants. And no one was supervising it. The Federal government is actually off the hook because they run a state independent grid. They might want to re-think that with this event.

https://twitter.com/Bunnuunuu/status/13 ... 9061573632

[Smoove_B]

The emergency management people I follow are astounded by what's happening down there. I've been reading random accounts and I can't even process it. This seems like a humanitarian crisis - like, send in the National Guard and get these people out of places without heat and water. During the days that followed Sandy when I didn't have heat (in late October, in NJ) I think the coldest it was in my house was somewhere in the mid 50s. I can't even process a temperature of 40 indoors, much less seeing a ceiling fan frozen.

I've been following elements of infrastructure for years (mainly water and sewer) and know that both of those systems (nationwide) are in big trouble. I didn't realize just how vulnerable the TX power grid was.

[malchior]

The emergency management people I follow are astounded by what's happening down there. I've been reading random accounts and I can't even process it. This seems like a humanitarian crisis - like, send in the National Guard and get these people out of places without heat and water. During the days that followed Sandy when I didn't have heat (in late October, in NJ) I think the coldest it was in my house was somewhere in the mid 50s. I can't even process a temperature of 40 indoors, much less seeing a ceiling fan frozen.

I am in direct contact with someone where the water in their toilet bowl is frozen solid. The problem is the scale. They are shedding 25% of the load at any given moment right now. They were supposed to be rolling it around but there is evidence it isn't happening. At least not consistently. I won't be surprised to hear how they prioritized wealthier areas. They also aren't really communicating to folks when power will be on and off so people can't prepare. It's a nightmare for a lot of folks.

[malchior]

Meanwhile, Republicans are running a shit show propaganda campaign instead of taking ownership of their deregulation nightmare.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1361868404534112257

[Defiant]

https://twitter.com/PatsATweetin/status ... 4001886216

https://twitter.com/taradublinrocks/sta ... 0214974465

[Daehawk]

I sorta want to feel sorry for them but after the way they acted during the election I sorta dont.

Maybe they can write Florida man and get some response.

[malchior]

This whole thing has even Ted Cruz throwing out douchey sorta apologies for past douchebaggery.

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1361833252567179266

[Daehawk]

Its like 15 here tonight. We've been 4 days without power multiple times and in a blizzard even with multiple feet of snow. Im looking at their temps online. They're fine.

If not Trump will save them. Gotta believe.

[Daehawk]

I can't even process a temperature of 40 indoors, much less seeing a ceiling fan frozen.

I've been following elements of infrastructure for years (mainly water and sewer) and know that both of those systems (nationwide) are in big trouble. I didn't realize just how vulnerable the TX power grid was.

That fan is weird. Shouldn't be that cold according to temps Im seeing listed online. But thats a roof problem not a weather thing to start with. I dont get why they have so much trouble except for their leadership. Probably been pocking the money they needed...but they dont ever seem to care and will keep supporting Republicans.

[Defiant]

The fan confused me, but looking closer, I guess a pipe (or more) burst (because the water froze) and so the water is leaking and I guess there's not much in the way of insulation?

(Unless they decided to leave the doors and windows open).

[malchior]

It is 19F in Dallas right now and the low is looking like 12F. And some people haven't had power for well over a day. As to the ceiling fan look at the right and left side. Water was running from both sides and all along the hallway on both sides but not further down. It is probably a block apartment building and I think a reasonable explanation is a burst pipe.

[Daehawk]

Edited my posts. Was too assholy sounding even for me. I know not all the state is Trump country. Least I hope not.

[malchior]

Edited my posts. Was too assholy sounding even for me. I know not all the state is Trump country. Least I hope not.

I know a lot of Texans. They are of many stripes. There however is a critical mass of people willing to elect politicians who traffic in the sort of nonsense that Abbott was peddling above. They should really think about how what they are going through now connects to them electing people like Abbott. But back to Abbott, he definitely deserves scorn for spending time selling lies on Hannity to save his own bacon instead of managing a humanitarian crisis in his own state. What a piece of shit.

[Grifman]

I sorta want to feel sorry for them but after the way they acted during the election I sorta dont.

Maybe they can write Florida man and get some response.

Biden got 46% of the vote in TX. Even if you feel Republicans should suffer (and I don't grant you that), there are still millions of people that didn't vote for him that are suffering.

Edit - missed your edit, apologies.

[Grifman]

TX disaster is due to multiple issues:

1) Yes, some wind turbines are down to the weather but . . .
2) TX grid is not connected to the rest of the country (or minimally so) hence they are unable to "import" power
3) TX energy demand peaks in the summer, hence many companies take units out of service in the winter for repairs and maintenance
4) Demand for natural gas is high for heating, hence there is not available enough for power generation
5) There are issues with oil/gas distribution systems freezing up because of the extreme cold
6) Other parts of the grid infrastructure are down due to the impacts of the cold which they are not designed to handle
7) TX market is very deregulated, which is not necessarily bad. But in TX, companies are not required to maintain a minimal level of power reserves, hence there is no flex in the system, no buffer (because that would "cost more"). I suspect this is one thing that will change going forward.

There is no one reason, and it certainly isn't due to renewables or green energy. You could have no renewables in TX and they still have almost just as bad a problem.

[malchior]

TX disaster is due to multiple issues:

5) There are issues with oil/gas distribution systems freezing up because of the extreme cold

Just to expand a little, even the well heads are down. Especially in OK and Northern/Eastern Texas. When I was in the sector I remember buying and selling at $2-3/mmBTU - I did a rotation through my previous employer's commercial operations function. I bought and sold LNG and coal and even arranged delivery of supply via boats/trains. In any case, I saw prices of $500mm/BTU on the spot market. I was talking to someone and I asked them about delivery because the pipelines are partially down. No one really knows when the pipeline situation will improve. Perversely if pressure is low enough they'll eventually make a decision whether to flare off whatever is in the pipeline but it probably is minimal stock. The temperature might be low enough that this isn't a problem though. When it is warmer and pressure is low you risk the temperature rising and going back to a gas which is no bueno unsafe.

It is unclear how it'd even happen if you bought spot LNG. My former employer has a facility down due to low pressure even though they could operate if they had supply. I also read a story that the big marine terminal in Houston technically Port Arthur was down to so you can't even get it from ships. That leaves trains pretty much which isn't impossible to wrangle but isn't something that gets ramped up in a day or two. A typical contract with a carrier has a max capacity for a day. Increasing it would be expensive and everyone may be piling in right now to buy space on the trains. Then they'd have to find the right container cars, etc. It's not easy.

7) TX market is very deregulated, which is not necessarily bad. But in TX, companies are not required to maintain a minimal level of power reserves, hence there is no flex in the system, no buffer (because that would "cost more"). I suspect this is one thing that will change going forward.

The problem is a bit bigger than the buffer and offline resources. According to the ERCOT dashboard, they have about a third of current capacity offline at the moment. They have had persistent issues with maintenance on the generation side for years because of the super low price environment and fierce competition. Deregulation isn't necessarily bad but their flavor of it has issues. ERCOT doesn't act as oversight like FERC does almost everywhere in the country. They don't contemplate appropriate maintenance governance, reliability oversight, and I'll say with some confidence...ahem...that the cyber security controls there aren't as robust though that isn't pertinent. Just more of a support argument that Texas needs to rethink their version of grid oversight function. ERCOT sometimes acts more like a marketplace than a utility oversight function.

[Daehawk]

Looks like good weather after tonight. Their 7 day is better than my 7 days. But power is on here.

[malchior]

This is insanity.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1361847765387546629

[Carpet_pissr]

I’m convinced that Fox News is a MAJOR part of the reason the country is so split right now.

SO, so bad for America....for YEARS. Just spewing bs and creating, then fueling anger and rage based on mostly lies.

Unbelievable.

[LordMortis]

This is insanity.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1361847765387546629

Every state is going to go on its own isolated power grid?

Find a way to be warm and safe.

[malchior]

At a meta level, there is a reason that "conservative" policy wins. They often strike fast and strike hard with blatant lies and propaganda. I did a quick review of the news this morning and they've got people repeating this 'green new deal' and 'frozen wind turbine' nonsense everywhere.

Back to deregulation again to highlight the problematic side of it. Part of this is what Grifman referenced about lack of a buffer. There is a quote from the architect of the energy policy in Texas in the NY Times:

For years, energy experts argued that the way Texas runs its electricity system invited a systematic failure. In the mid-1990s, the state decided against paying power producers to hold reserves, discarding the common practice across the United States and Canada of requiring a supply buffer of at least 15 percent beyond a typical day’s need.

Robert McCullough, of McCullough Research in Portland, Ore., said he and others have long warned about the potential for catastrophe because Texas simply lacked backup for extreme weather events increasingly commonplace as a result of climate change.

“What they’ve done is systematic unpreparedness,” Mr. McCullough said. “It was not inadvertent. They planned this outcome.”

He has debated the issue for years with William W. Hogan, the architect of the strategy that was adopted by the state seven years ago.

Mr. Hogan, a professor of global energy policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School, acknowledged that while many Texans have struggled this week without heat and electricity, the state’s energy market has functioned as it was designed.

That design relies on basic economics: When electricity demand increases, so too does the price for power. The higher prices force consumers to reduce energy use to prevent cascading failures of power plants that could leave the entire state in the dark, while encouraging power plants to generate more electricity.

“It’s not convenient,” Professor Hogan said. “It’s not nice. It’s necessary.”

Still, the rules of economics offered little comfort for Andrea Ramos after the lights went out in her home in Austin around 2 a.m. on Monday.

Wut at the last part? Higher prices didn't force consumers to reduce energy use. They were shut off. High prices didn't incentivize the power stations from powering on during this ongoing crisis. They couldn't and had supply issues. They'd love to tap into the $9000/MWh rate that ERCOT is trading. This is the sort of deregulation that leads to horrible outcomes and apparently there is no failure too big for the ultra market liberals. In this case, he is blatantly ignoring this is a classic market failure.

FWIW I would have liked the NY Times to go just a step farther and talk about the lack of governance/oversight and associated maintenance impacts. They don't really cover why so many systems are offline now beyond 'they favor the summer' which is very oversimplified.

[Scraper]

Here in Ohio we had a major ice/snow storm Monday night. I woke up to over an inch of ice on top of a couple inch layer of snow coating my truck. This morning it was -4 out and not once did I lose power and there haven't been any major power outages anywhere in the state. So this is all on Texas as it is clearly preventable.

[LordMortis]

Here in Ohio we had a major ice/snow storm Monday night. I woke up to over an inch of ice on top of a couple inch layer of snow coating my truck. This morning it was -4 out and not once did I lose power and there haven't been any major power outages anywhere in the state. So this is all on Texas as it is clearly preventable.

While true, it is also unfair to expect Texas to work by the same disaster mitigation playbook as Ohio. What makes no sense to me is that this happened to a lesser extent less than a decade ago and that mitigation strategies haven''t improved. It's nutty to me that Texas, even as big as it is, doesn't join an interstate electric re-distribution agreement. Don't tread on me, why should I let your problems become my problems, I guess.

I am more than a bit surprised to see feelers for blaming this on government over-reach and the need to for more de-regulation. That this could be the signal coming from all of this is jaw dropping to me.

I also hope Northern Mexico re-evaluates its dependence on Texas for energy production. The northern states of Mexico are truly getting fucked because Texas is naturally hoarding its energy production to protect itself right now.

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-latin ... 3d21329e3a

[Daehawk]

I’m convinced that Fox News is a MAJOR part of the reason the country is so split right now.

SO, so bad for America....for YEARS. Just spewing bs and creating, then fueling anger and rage based on mostly lies.

Unbelievable.

And yet the FCC allows them to blatantly lie all the time to anyone who will listen.

I wonder what old Tucker would be preaching right now if Trumpydumpy was still in there.

[YellowKing]

I used to work for a company that built wind turbines - that Tucker clip is absolutely enraging. Blatantly false.

[Blackhawk]

That design relies on basic economics: When electricity demand increases, so too does the price for power. The higher prices force consumers to reduce energy use to prevent cascading failures of power plants that could leave the entire state in the dark, while encouraging power plants to generate more electricity.

That makes no sense. There isn't a ticking cost meter in anyone's living room. You pay for your electricity a month later, and a single high bill makes people bitch, not change. The kind of 'this is getting expensive, we need cut back' mindset they're talking about wouldn't kick in two months (or more) after the problem begins.

[Daehawk]

I used to work for a company that built wind turbines - that Tucker clip is absolutely enraging. Blatantly false.

But the Trumpers have proof!

[Paingod]

This is insanity.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1361847765387546629

I don't even. There needs to be some kind of accountability for this kind of shit.

We're at a point where an angry mob is basically foaming at the mouth and looking for someone to attack. Anyone. These chucklefucks keep going on the air and pointing anywhere else but at their own side.

Dude's walking down the sidewalk and trips on his own untied shoelace, falls into a bench. He gets up and starts attacking the bench with his bare hands, bleeding and breaking bones in the process. He finally collapses onto the ground, rips off his shoe, and flings it towards a stunned onlooker sitting on a bench 20 feet away. "You sonofabitch!" he screams in a high-pitched whine.

This is the current level of sanity in the GOP and on display at FOX.

[Carpet_pissr]

Unless I’m very wrong, the Green New Deal that Abbott and Fox are blaming this on, is not even law, correct?

AFAIK it’s not even a thing right now - just a program that the left-most D’s in power want to implement. Is there a kernel of truth in there somewhere? Maybe a law requiring Texas to have X wind turbines providing electricity?

If all that is true, the right really IS playing 4-D chess and we’re all fucked. They’re blasting potentially scary Dem policies and blaming them for horrors, BEFORE THEY ARE EVEN PASSED, much less implemented!

[Daehawk]

This is Texas right where you go out in your back yard with a shovel dig one foot down and scoop out crude oil then pour it in your heater / car?

[malchior]

That design relies on basic economics: When electricity demand increases, so too does the price for power. The higher prices force consumers to reduce energy use to prevent cascading failures of power plants that could leave the entire state in the dark, while encouraging power plants to generate more electricity.

That makes no sense. There isn't a ticking cost meter in anyone's living room. You pay for your electricity a month later, and a single high bill makes people bitch, not change. The kind of 'this is getting expensive, we need cut back' mindset they're talking about wouldn't kick in two months (or more) after the problem begins.

They have widespread smart meter rollouts. They can theoretically monitor their usage in near-real time via portal and may be billed different rates throughout the day. More expensive power at peak times and cheaper overnight. There are gaps there but the idea is a key component of the deregulation story in Texas. In effect, people are supposed to be incentivized to operate appliances at night when power is cheaper.

If all that is true, the right really IS playing 4-D chess and we’re all fucked. They’re blasting potentially scary Dem policies and blaming them for horrors, BEFORE THEY ARE EVEN PASSED, much less implemented!

This is exactly why it is happening. They are deflecting a massive conservative policy failure. A policy failure that has lead to deaths. Instead of taking ownership and fixing it they are turning the blame on policies that others are proposing in an effort to forestall them. It is simple and infuriating. And it works on these rubes. It is an incarnation of 'never let a crisis go to waste' power maximization politics.

[Dramatist]

Those Fox News clips are infuriating. I’m here in coastal Texas about 60 miles SW of downtown Houston. We haven’t lost power at all in my house but we are having freezing rain again this morning.

There’s got to be some way going forward to hold accountable those who blatantly lie.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Little Raven]

They have widespread smart meter rollouts. They can theoretically monitor their usage in near-real time via portal and may be billed different rates throughout the day. More expensive power at peak times and cheaper overnight.

Nothing theoretical about it. My wife signed up for the smart rollout right away and then came up with a schedule for when all laundry/dishwashing is done. I thought it was silly but I'll be damned if our electricity bill didn't drop by 30%.

[Blackhawk]

That design relies on basic economics: When electricity demand increases, so too does the price for power. The higher prices force consumers to reduce energy use to prevent cascading failures of power plants that could leave the entire state in the dark, while encouraging power plants to generate more electricity.

That makes no sense. There isn't a ticking cost meter in anyone's living room. You pay for your electricity a month later, and a single high bill makes people bitch, not change. The kind of 'this is getting expensive, we need cut back' mindset they're talking about wouldn't kick in two months (or more) after the problem begins.

They have widespread smart meter rollouts. They can theoretically monitor their usage in near-real time via portal and may be billed different rates throughout the day. More expensive power at peak times and cheaper overnight. There are gaps there but the idea is a key component of the deregulation story in Texas. In effect, people are supposed to be incentivized to operate appliances at night when power is cheaper.

Unless I seriously misunderstand how smart meters work (I've never seen one), when energy demand suddenly spikes, how many people are going to be checking their meter/rate every hour? If people aren't aware on the spot that their costs just jumped, they're not going to change their habits. They'll change them after a bill or two. And that seems to defeat the purpose of their plan.

[El Guapo]

There’s got to be some way going forward to hold accountable those who blatantly lie.

Let us know if you come up with something.

[Little Raven]

Unless I seriously misunderstand how smart meters work (I've never seen one), when energy demand suddenly spikes, how many people are going to be checking their meter/rate every hour?

People like my wife. (crazy people)

Many (most?) people do not. My wife had to call her sister to remind her that she had a variable rate plan and her current rate was INSANELY high, so for the love of god turn off everything you don't absolutely need.

[Carpet_pissr]

There’s got to be some way going forward to hold accountable those who blatantly lie.

LOL!!!!

[Blackhawk]

Unless I seriously misunderstand how smart meters work (I've never seen one), when energy demand suddenly spikes, how many people are going to be checking their meter/rate every hour?

People like my wife. (crazy people)

Many (most?) people do not. My wife had to call her sister to remind her that she had a variable rate plan and her current rate was INSANELY high, so for the love of god turn off everything you don't absolutely need.

Which kills the plan. Now maybe if they made a free app (that actually worked) that showed rates in real time and threw up a notification if it ever went over X (or just had green/yellow/red status), they might make a dent.

[Paingod]

There’s got to be some way going forward to hold accountable those who blatantly lie.

Let us know if you come up with something.

The level of it over the last four years has passed beyond being dangerously close to actually inciting people to active participation in fighting for the lies. It actually makes me concerned for peoples' safety when I hear them laying the blame for horrible policies and actions at the feet of their "opposition" as it just continues to dehumanize "the enemy" and makes the next incidents easier to come by.

It reminds me of Florida Man's son, Derpy Man, who posted "They're not even human" in talking about democrats.

[stessier]

Unless I seriously misunderstand how smart meters work (I've never seen one), when energy demand suddenly spikes, how many people are going to be checking their meter/rate every hour?

People like my wife. (crazy people)

Many (most?) people do not. My wife had to call her sister to remind her that she had a variable rate plan and her current rate was INSANELY high, so for the love of god turn off everything you don't absolutely need.

Which kills the plan. Now maybe if they made a free app (that actually worked) that showed rates in real time and threw up a notification if it ever went over X (or just had green/yellow/red status), they might make a dent.

I don't think you understand the guiding principle is "personal responsibility". (only half snark)