Children of Men

[Grifman]

If the trend of falling sperm counts observed in one study continues, it might render half the men of Europe and North America impotent by 2045.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... dLP-x6yJLk

[Isgrimnur]

Pat Buchanan tried to warn us!

[Kraken]

US population growth hits record low

U.S. population growth dipped to its lowest rate since the nation’s founding during the first year of the pandemic as the coronavirus curtailed immigration, delayed pregnancies and killed hundreds of thousands of U.S. residents, according to figures released Tuesday.

The United States grew by only 0.1%, with an additional 392,665 added to the U.S. population from July 2020 to July 2021, bringing the nation's count to 331.8 million people, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The U.S. has been experiencing slow population growth for years but the pandemic exacerbated that trend. This past year was the first time since 1937 that the nation’s population grew by less than 1 million people.

If only we could convince people from other countries to come here. No, not THOSE countries. The nice ones.

[Jaymann]

At 7.9 billion people in the world, not enough people would seem to be the least of our worries. Sure we could end up with not enough people to maintain the status quo, but maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Edit to add: Perhaps low sperm count is nature's way of limiting out of control population growth.

[Max Peck]

Maybe if more people were aware of how COVID-19 messes with their sperm, all those white nationalists that are worried about not enough of the right kind of babies (See what I did there?) would mask up and get vaccinated.

[Kraken]

At 7.9 billion people in the world, not enough people would seem to be the least of our worries. Sure we could end up with not enough people to maintain the status quo, but maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Capitalism requires an ever-expanding pool of poor people. If we can't make them, we need to import them.

[Grifman]

At 7.9 billion people in the world, not enough people would seem to be the least of our worries. Sure we could end up with not enough people to maintain the status quo, but maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Sure, let’s go back to another Dark Ages! Sounds wonderful!

Edit to add: Perhaps low sperm count is nature's way of limiting out of control population growth.

Uh, this is nothing “natural”. This is something that is entirely unnatural - it is something we have artificially introduced to our environment. We are doing it to ourselves.

[Jaymann]

At 7.9 billion people in the world, not enough people would seem to be the least of our worries. Sure we could end up with not enough people to maintain the status quo, but maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Sure, let’s go back to another Dark Ages! Sounds wonderful!

Edit to add: Perhaps low sperm count is nature's way of limiting out of control population growth.

Uh, this is nothing “natural”. This is something that is entirely unnatural - it is something we have artificially introduced to our environment. We are doing it to ourselves.

Not sure how lower population equates to dark ages. I'm sure we could scrape by with 2 or 3 billion. The lessened taxing on resources could lead to higher standard of living.

On point #2, how exactly do you know this?

[Max Peck]

For starters, the article linked in the OP literally states "Harmful chemicals commonly found in the home could be to blame."

It's obviously natural in the sense that it's not supernatural, but if I had to place a bet, I'd go with the root cause being something like environmental damage or pollution rather than overpopulation. The natural mechanisms to counter excess population tend to be things like predation/competition, starvation and disease resulting in active population reduction rather than slow population reduction through reduced fertility.

In other words, the solution to human overpopulation is the Four Horsemen: War, Famine, Pestilence and Death.

Here endeth the hot take.

[LawBeefaroni]

In other words, the solution to human overpopulation is the Four Horsemen: War, Famine, Pestilence and Death.

[Little Raven]

The lessened taxing on resources could lead to higher standard of living.

I can't think of a single historical example of this being true. Falling populations are virtually always associated with lower standards of living. Generally, disastrously lower standards of living.

The obvious comeback, of course, is that virtually all of the historical examples are based on wars/climate change/famine...which is true enough. But we do have a few more modern examples of areas in the world where there's no disaster - they just don't have enough children to replace the population - mostly villages in Italy and Japan.

They're not exactly hellscapes, but I'm not sure anyone would consider it a higher standard of living.

[gilraen]

The lessened taxing on resources could lead to higher standard of living.

I can't think of a single historical example of this being true.

Black Plague.

[Holman]

Lowered sperm counts might not be the cause of lowered birthrates. If it were so, we'd be experiencing widespread anxiety about couples not being able to conceive when they wanted to. If that's a major social issue, I've missed it.

Birthrates generally drop (sometimes drastically so) as a society becomes more urban, more educated, and less based on manual labor.

One particular challenge we face is that we've become very good at keeping old people alive. (It hasn't been many generations since the elderly were likely to die from their first health crisis.) Falling birthrates will mean smaller future generations not only in total but in proportion to the rest of society.

[Grifman]

At 7.9 billion people in the world, not enough people would seem to be the least of our worries. Sure we could end up with not enough people to maintain the status quo, but maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Sure, let’s go back to another Dark Ages! Sounds wonderful!

Edit to add: Perhaps low sperm count is nature's way of limiting out of control population growth.

Uh, this is nothing “natural”. This is something that is entirely unnatural - it is something we have artificially introduced to our environment. We are doing it to ourselves.

Not sure how lower population equates to dark ages. I'm sure we could scrape by with 2 or 3 billion. The lessened taxing on resources could lead to higher standard of living.

It depends upon what you meant by "status quo". Perhaps you can explain?

On point #2, how exactly do you know this?

Fertility doesn't naturally drop like this. You don't get declining sperm counts rapidly like this without some outside source as the cause. Most scientists believe it is something we have introduced into our environment, some way or another. We need research to figure this out as the implications are devastating both socially and economically.

Also, I would agree that there are too many people on the earth - we see the results in the unprecdented level of environment degradation - from global warming to our oceans dying of plastic. But population decline needs to be managed carefully and thoughtfully. As demographers will point out, it is very easy for a population to enter a death spiral from which recovery is very difficult. Several countries are already facing this question.

[Holman]

Fertility doesn't naturally drop like this. You don't get declining sperm counts rapidly like this without some outside source as the cause. Most scientists believe it is something we have introduced into our environment, some way or another. We need research to figure this out as the implications are devastating both socially and economically.

Agree.

[Little Raven]

Black Plague.

Uh huh. That's why the book your article references is called A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century.

Sure, certain classes benefited - particularly over the long term and in conjunction with other wider forces. Nobody who actually lived through it thought it was a good time.

[gilraen]

So did you miss the other dozen or so books and papers linked in that article? It doesn't even matter, I just grabbed the first Google search as an example. There's a general consensus in the historian community that ultimately Black Plague created the right conditions to usher in the Renaissance and social reforms in Europe. There are LOTS of books on the subject, but feel free to nitpick on one source that you don't deem reliable enough.

[Little Raven]

Don't get me wrong, gil, I'm not saying that the Black Plague didn't bring benefits. Certain people most definitely benefitted, particularly over the long term. I'm just not convinced that anyone who was actually alive anytime near it would have seen it as a thing which "raised living standards" - those benefits we're discussing generally came decades or centuries later, as your article discusses at some length. But I suppose there's no way to know. The primary sources we have from the time all say it was a disaster of biblical proportions, but then, all those sources come from relatively privileged people. It's only natural they'd be upset.

Of course, even if the worst fears of Grif's demographers come to pass, our decline won't look like the Black Death. It'll look like Japan, or Italy, or Portugal. What's funny about these countries is that as far as I know, all of them remain pretty nice places to live even as they age, but boy are their politicians getting nervous.

[gilraen]

Fertility doesn't naturally drop like this. You don't get declining sperm counts rapidly like this without some outside source as the cause. Most scientists believe it is something we have introduced into our environment, some way or another. We need research to figure this out as the implications are devastating both socially and economically.

Agree.

It can be any one of the thousands chemicals that were invented over the last 100 years, touted as miracles of modern engineering, and polluted air, water and every living cell on the planet. The half-life of many of these chemicals is measured in years and decades, so even if you were to ban them today, the damage is already done for an entire generation.

For example...

[TheMix]

Don't get me wrong, gil, I'm not saying that the Black Plague didn't bring benefits. Certain people most definitely benefitted, particularly over the long term. I'm just not convinced that anyone who was actually alive anytime near it would have seen it as a thing which "raised living standards" - those benefits we're discussing generally came decades or centuries later, as your article discusses at some length. But I suppose there's no way to know. The primary sources we have from the time all say it was a disaster of biblical proportions, but then, all those sources come from relatively privileged people. It's only natural they'd be upset.

Of course, even if the worst fears of Grif's demographers come to pass, our decline won't look like the Black Death. It'll look like Japan, or Italy, or Portugal. What's funny about these countries is that as far as I know, all of them remain pretty nice places to live even as they age, but boy are their politicians getting nervous.

Jaymann's quote, that you initially responded to, said "could lead to". I don't think anyone was trying to argue an immediate effect. Well, except possibly you. It feels like you may actually agree with the statement....

[Little Raven]

Fair enough, although by that metric, EVERYTHING leads to a better world. At least, assuming we like our world.

[TheMix]

Granted. Seems like the debate should be around how long in the future we might see any benefits. I am pretty confident that I wouldn't still be around.

[Jaymann]

Fair enough, although by that metric, EVERYTHING leads to a better world. At least, assuming we like our world.

With the likely exception of overpopulation.

We certainly don't know the long term effects of global reduced population, but we can pretty much tell where overpopulation leads us. My intuition is people looking for more space would move to the places suffering from local depopulation.

[Grifman]

Fair enough, although by that metric, EVERYTHING leads to a better world. At least, assuming we like our world.

With the likely exception of overpopulation.

We certainly don't know the long term effects of global reduced population, but we can pretty much tell where overpopulation leads us. My intuition is people looking for more space would move to the places suffering from local depopulation.

Uh, that assumes they would let them in. Japan faces dramatic population decline but there isn't much indication that the Japanese want to admit a bunch of foreigners. But I guess time will tell if that changes.

[Jaymann]

Fair enough, although by that metric, EVERYTHING leads to a better world. At least, assuming we like our world.

With the likely exception of overpopulation.

We certainly don't know the long term effects of global reduced population, but we can pretty much tell where overpopulation leads us. My intuition is people looking for more space would move to the places suffering from local depopulation.

Uh, that assumes they would let them in. Japan faces dramatic population decline but there isn't much indication that the Japanese want to admit a bunch of foreigners. But I guess time will tell if that changes.

I agree. There will always be places that prefer a death spiral to "others."

[Grifman]

https://www.euronews.com/next/amp/2022/ ... ine-sample

[dbt1949]

The millennials are going to wish they were boomers when it comes time for them to retire.

[Isgrimnur]

By having youths at whose expense they're living off of? Absolutely.

[LawBeefaroni]

https://www.euronews.com/next/amp/2022/ ... ine-sample

Aren't our water supplies also loaded with benenzodiazepines, countless hormones, viagra, and all the other drugs we flush/pee? Every time I hear the list of side effects on a drug ad, I figure it is only a matter of time before they become environmental side effects.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2022/05/f ... ahead.html

“We found pharmaceuticals everywhere and there was no place where basically a fish could be unexposed to pharmaceuticals and that was a surprise,” Nick Castillo, a scientist with Florida International University and the Bonefish and Tarpon Trust said of the three-year study.

Ninety-three bonefish in South Florida were tested, according to the report, and all 93 were found to have drugs in their system. And it wasn’t just one drug per fish. The report said that the average number of drugs found in each fish was seven, and that some of the bonefish even had as many as 16 different drugs in them.

https://www.salon.com/2013/03/14/your_t ... s_partner/

There’s a good chance that if you live in an urban area, your tap water is laced with tiny amounts of antidepressants (mostly SSRIs like Prozac and Effexor), benzodiazepines (like Klonopin, used to reduce symptoms of substance withdrawal) and anticonvulsants (like Topomax, used to treat addiction to alcohol, nicotine, food and even cocaine and crystal meth). Such are the implications of environmental studies that have been leaking out over the past decade. Whether or not this psychoactive waste has any effect on the human nervous system remains unclear, but when such pharmaceuticals are introduced into the ecosystem, the fallout for other species is demonstrable—and potentially dire.

[Isgrimnur]

[Grifman]

https://twitter.com/ellegist/status/182 ... NcXCfN8s1g

[hepcat]

I really do feel it's time for the kingdom of the apes to rise. We've had a good run, but look at the mess we made.

[Isgrimnur]

We've had a good run

Did we, though?

[Pyperkub]

We've had a good run

Did we, though?

Yes. We went to the Moon, something we dreamed about for millennia.

[hepcat]

And we invented the "J.D. Vance screws sofas" joke. It's all downhill from here, so let's just call it a day and bugger off to extinction.

[Archinerd]

This seems like a good use for ai...
Sorry I couldn't convince it to spell Astounding correctly.

[hepcat]

[Blackhawk]

https://twitter.com/ellegist/status/182 ... NcXCfN8s1g

I can't help but think it's environmental. It's either what we eat, what we breath, what we drink, or, just as likely, a combination of the above.

[LordMortis]

Plastics, PFAS, and/or Pesticides are my guess. We created a world where they are ubiquitous. Next guess would be air quality.

PFAS seems to be what set us apart from the animals we feed, so that's my first choice unless evidence shows domestic male animals also are becoming less fertile.

[Alefroth]

I think it's video games.