Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

[El Guapo]

Deflated House Republicans leave town with no solution for government shutdown

I'm curious what people think the odds of a shutdown are. It's different than the last shutdown (what was that, 2019?) in that I think there's less support among GOP leadership for a shutdown. But it's also different in that the lunatics in the GOP have even more power and influence than last time, and party leadership is even less functional.

I feel like the odds now are something like 60%ish?

[Smoove_B]

I've been repeatedly assured it's a non-issue to worry about - that the House GOP isn't so stupid as to allow it to happen.

Also, my employer sent out an email notification yesterday regarding exactly what things would stop when the shutdown occurs.

[LawBeefaroni]

I've been repeatedly assured it's a non-issue to worry about - that the House GOP isn't so stupid as to allow it to happen.

Also, my employer sent out an email notification yesterday regarding exactly what things would stop when the shutdown occurs.

You mean some.people actually have to plan? Thry can’t just fly back to their home district for some R&R when things get hairy?

[malchior]

If you look at all the fault lines it feels virtually guaranteed. FWIW I think a lot of folks are analyzing it incorrectly in the pundit space. Everyone is talking about it being bad politics and people will blame the Republicans. It really appears like none of that stuff matters anymore. Traditional analysis is a poor predictor nowadays. I give it 50/50 odds that we'll learn about another level of dysfunction in the next few weeks.

[Daehawk]

The GOP..will they run out of bullets or feet first?

[Blackhawk]

It really appears like none of that stuff matters anymore. Traditional analysis is a poor predictor nowadays.

Before it was always about the strategy, about knowing they'd balance the benefits with downsides with the political price for each. Now? It's like riding a bull at a rodeo. All you can do is hang on tight and see what happens.

[Alefroth]

I feel like the odds now are something like 60%ish?

That seems low to me. What would a path to funding look like?

[Skinypupy]

Also, my employer sent out an email notification yesterday regarding exactly what things would stop when the shutdown occurs.

About 80% of my paycheck. So that’s fun.

Fuck every single one of these GOP dynamite monkeys, and the craven coward who “leads” them.

[waitingtoconnect]

Deflated House Republicans leave town with no solution for government shutdown

I'm curious what people think the odds of a shutdown are. It's different than the last shutdown (what was that, 2019?) in that I think there's less support among GOP leadership for a shutdown. But it's also different in that the lunatics in the GOP have even more power and influence than last time, and party leadership is even less functional.

I feel like the odds now are something like 60%ish?

All Joe Biden has to do is resign and make way for Donald trump to be reinstalled as rightful president. Why is he too cowardly to do what is right?

[Carpet_pissr]

Everyone is talking about it being bad politics and people will blame the Republicans. It really appears like none of that stuff matters anymore. Traditional analysis is a poor predictor nowadays.

Amen.

[RunningMn9]

I've been repeatedly assured it's a non-issue to worry about - that the House GOP isn't so stupid as to allow it to happen.

Also, my employer sent out an email notification yesterday regarding exactly what things would stop when the shutdown occurs.

Oddly enough, my employer has not. Which seems odd given who our respective employers are.

[waitingtoconnect]

I feel like the odds now are something like 60%ish?

That seems low to me. What would a path to funding look like?

In my opinion they’re either going to try and use the situation to create a “Biden recession” and spin it as the Democrats fault or alternatively go for a 30 or 60 day funding package to kick the can down the road a bit more. If there is a shutdown it will be an “accidental” shutdown in that they left things too late. Then one has to hope when their share portfolios are tanking, they aren’t having lattes delivered to their offices and the canteen is closed they’ll vote for things to resume.

Another strategy they have tried in the past is of course to push a bill onto Bidens desk he could never accept such as abolishing planned parenthood, the FBI and the post office. That way they can tell their base and Trump they were reasonable but the Democrats are conspiring to stop them governing the way the “People” want them to.

As in the UK in 2016-2018 where Brexit radicals held the country and PM hostage to their demands for a no deal Brexit because they controlled the balance of power in parliament. If May negotiated with other parties to get her policies through she’d be Overthrown - if she gave the hardliners what they wanted they’d demand even more. The situation remained unstable until the next election when the Conservative Party won a massive majority. I’d say until 2024 at least it will be like this.

[Smoove_B]

Oddly enough, my employer has not. Which seems odd given who our respective employers are.

To be fair, your employer is never targeted for cuts where as my employer (broadly) is the reason America is no longer great.

Honestly, it's feeling a bit like 2019 again where I woke up one morning and various federal websites were "closed". The idea that it was going to happen was insane. Then in an instant it did.

[El Guapo]

I feel like the odds now are something like 60%ish?

That seems low to me. What would a path to funding look like?

I think there are a few possible paths:

(1) they kick the can down the road - either a long-ish funding bill with a few meaningless provisions to the radicals so that they can pretend it's not just kicking the can down the road, or a series of short term clean funding bills;
(2) democrats cave and agree to some significant ransom payment in exchange for funding the government;
(3) a handful of Republicans in blue / purple districts force a deal either with the democrats or threaten to do so if the majority doesn't pass a funding bill - never seems to happen but who knows maybe this is the time.

The main thing that keeps the odds from being higher is that it doesn't seem like anyone really wants a shutdown, which is different from 2019. Which means I think that there's a non-trivial chance that they slap something together, probably at the last minute. BUT the dysfunction's pretty bad now, so...

[Kraken]

I feel like the odds now are something like 60%ish?

That seems low to me. What would a path to funding look like?

Yeah, my gut says 90%. I don't see the radicals caving because they WANT chaos, and I don't see a way to bypass them without costing McCarthy his job (i.e., enlisting Dem votes). Hope I'm wrong.

[waitingtoconnect]

How do you deal with people who want to stop paying the military in the hope of a coup that overthrows democracy? Who feel they have more in common with Putin than an American of a different party?

[LordMortis]

I put it at less than 25% but not much. There are enough obstructionists and Freedom Caucus and enough of a desire to not be bipartisan that's it's a very real chance and it will fall squarely on McCarthy's shoulders while they try to play it that the failure is bipartisan and it's only just now that spending is out of control.

[LordMortis]

CNBC (Eric Cantor) is suggesting the GOP strategy is not about if the Gov't will shutdown but over how long. So I guess my 25% is way off.

[Unagi]

Just verifying my memory here.

Every single time there is a possible government shutdown - it is always the GOP, right?

[malchior]

Just verifying my memory here.

Every single time there is a possible government shutdown - it is always the GOP, right?

In modern times. The first one in the early 80s was a single day legal kerfuffle over one agency (the FTC but I'm hazy if that's the right one) within the Carter administration. The 80s had some shutdowns precipitated by Reagan fighting with Democrats over budget issues with his veto shutting down the government. From the 90s onward it was almost always radical Republicans. Newt Gingrich architected the modern hostage taking strategy and I say almost because I think a few Democrats participated in the early ones in the 90s. But generally it's been the GOP breaking stuff.

[Unagi]

Yeah, okay - that's about what I was thinking - in the last 20 years, it's always the radical Republicans taking us all hostage.

[El Guapo]

The more power that the conservative movement has gained the more they've had to wrestle with the fact that almost all of their political priorities are broadly unpopular. But obviously they don't want to revisit or change their priorities, so that's meant grasping at various counter-majoritarian ways to get what they want (including shutdowns precipitated by their control of one of the veto areas of government).

[malchior]

There is a great book about this - Let Them Eat Tweets that builds on a model explaining similar problems faced in other democracies that have faced this issue (especially 19th century UK). They've termed it the "Conservative dilemma". Essentially when oligarchs/plutocracy gets too much power they tend to use that power to entrench themselves no matter what and it leads to widespread dissent. Which is pretty obvious to everyone except the NY Times opinion page.

[Kraken]

CNBC (Eric Cantor) is suggesting the GOP strategy is not about if the Gov't will shutdown but over how long. So I guess my 25% is way off.

The more salient question is how it will ever reopen. The GOP is incapable of the most rudimentary governance.

A long shutdown will cause a lot of people a lot of pain, but it does improve the Dems' chances of recapturing the House (which I believe to be already good).

Guess what happens on Oct. 1, the same day the crisis starts? I file for Social Security! I know the gubmint will keep the checks coming through the shutdown, but I'm less confident that they will be processing new claims. I've waited 66-1/2 years for this, so what's another couple of months, amiright?

[malchior]

CNBC (Eric Cantor) is suggesting the GOP strategy is not about if the Gov't will shutdown but over how long. So I guess my 25% is way off.

The more salient question is how it will ever reopen. The GOP is incapable of the most rudimentary governance.

A long shutdown will cause a lot of people a lot of pain, but it does improve the Dems' chances of recapturing the House (which I believe to be already good).

FWIW. I think this could be an area in general where the traditional analysis breaks down. This makes sense but there is a decent chance a government shutdown in 2023 is hardly going to be a blip in the firestorm that will be 2024.

Guess what happens on Oct. 1, the same day the crisis starts? I file for Social Security! I know the gubmint will keep the checks coming through the shutdown, but I'm less confident that they will be processing new claims. I've waited 66-1/2 years for this, so what's another couple of months, amiright?

True. It's also nice to know you'll get paid what is owed to you which is more than many of us expect.

[Octavious]

The good news is that the age will probably be like 75 by the time I get near retirement. I look forward to probably never collecting and likely working as a doorman at Walmart.

[Kraken]

CNBC (Eric Cantor) is suggesting the GOP strategy is not about if the Gov't will shutdown but over how long. So I guess my 25% is way off.

The more salient question is how it will ever reopen. The GOP is incapable of the most rudimentary governance.

A long shutdown will cause a lot of people a lot of pain, but it does improve the Dems' chances of recapturing the House (which I believe to be already good).

FWIW. I think this could be an area in general where the traditional analysis breaks down. This makes sense but there is a decent chance a government shutdown in 2023 is hardly going to be a blip in the firestorm that will be 2024.

People who are directly impacted won't forget who screwed them over. As for the rest, they'll be more focused on the general state of the economy, which a prolonged shutdown threatens (esp. if combined with a protracted UAW strike). But I agree that endless coverage of trials and investigations are going to sweep away a lot of conventional wisdom.

[El Guapo]

CNBC (Eric Cantor) is suggesting the GOP strategy is not about if the Gov't will shutdown but over how long. So I guess my 25% is way off.

The more salient question is how it will ever reopen. The GOP is incapable of the most rudimentary governance.

A long shutdown will cause a lot of people a lot of pain, but it does improve the Dems' chances of recapturing the House (which I believe to be already good).

FWIW. I think this could be an area in general where the traditional analysis breaks down. This makes sense but there is a decent chance a government shutdown in 2023 is hardly going to be a blip in the firestorm that will be 2024.

People who are directly impacted won't forget who screwed them over.

But like, another charming feature of our system is that the multiple veto points for action means that low-information voters can't easily sort out who is to blame. Obviously Republicans will blame Biden. I think most mainstream media outlets will tend to blame Republicans more than Democrats, but probably in a fairly mild fashion rife with both sides-ism. So overall, how many people will decisively blame Republicans? Do those people live in swing states? Will that outweigh the political impact of any negative economic consequences of the shutdown?

Honestly my guess is that the political impact of any shutdown will be small to nonexistent by November 2024.

[Smoove_B]

Honestly my guess is that the political impact of any shutdown will be small to nonexistent by November 2024.

This is exactly correct. If there was an election next month? They'd be scrambling. Instead, they've called recess for the weekend and will continue to aim the ship towards the iceberg when they resume next week.

[LordMortis]

CNBC (Eric Cantor) is suggesting the GOP strategy is not about if the Gov't will shutdown but over how long. So I guess my 25% is way off.

The more salient question is how it will ever reopen. The GOP is incapable of the most rudimentary governance.

A long shutdown will cause a lot of people a lot of pain, but it does improve the Dems' chances of recapturing the House (which I believe to be already good).

FWIW. I think this could be an area in general where the traditional analysis breaks down. This makes sense but there is a decent chance a government shutdown in 2023 is hardly going to be a blip in the firestorm that will be 2024.

People who are directly impacted won't forget who screwed them over.

But like, another charming feature of our system is that the multiple veto points for action means that low-information voters can't easily sort out who is to blame. Obviously Republicans will blame Biden. I think most mainstream media outlets will tend to blame Republicans more than Democrats, but probably in a fairly mild fashion rife with both sides-ism. So overall, how many people will decisively blame Republicans? Do those people live in swing states? Will that outweigh the political impact of any negative economic consequences of the shutdown?

Honestly my guess is that the political impact of any shutdown will be small to nonexistent by November 2024.

Locally, there are TFG ads on the radio about how he is the guy who stands for the UAW. He goes on a rambling thesis statement about China and protecting the worker. I don't know if there is a buy on that or not. It won't change any minds that weren't decided before anyway, though.

CNBC mostly have editorial staff blaming Biden as well as a nonstop wave of R political guests, though they balance with enough D guests and more objective correspondents that I can still fish for good info if I don't feel like being old guy yelling at the TV when they let Santelli or Kernan ramble or there isn't a barrage of guests like Mulvaney or borderline megawealthy trying to protect thars.

[Pyperkub]

The Dems throw McCarthy a lifeline... which could kill the MAGAt's faction, but also McArthy, eventually...

might House Democrats save McCarthy’s bacon and at the same time prevent or end a government shutdown by voting against a motion to vacate the chair? It’s a tantalizing possibility that must have occurred to the tormented McCarthy, for whom kowtowing to Gaetz must be agonizing. But in an interview with Politico, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark made it clear Democrats would demand a high price for any McCarthy rescue effort....

... We respected the deal that the president made with Speaker McCarthy. And they signed that deal. And 314 of us voted — in an almost equal bipartisan fashion — to support it. And the ink was barely dry when Kevin McCarthy was back trying to placate the extremists in his conference. And he is just telling the American people what matters is him retaining his speakership and they don’t. And so when people come and say, Are Democrats going to help?, it is beyond frustrating.

But that’s not all Democrats want:

We want to get disaster aid out. We want to continue our support for Ukraine. And we want them to end this sham of an impeachment inquiry.

Kaboom.

[Daehawk]

I say we fire everybody and start over.

[Unagi]

The Dems throw McCarthy a lifeline... which could kill the MAGAt's faction, but also McArthy, eventually...

might House Democrats save McCarthy’s bacon and at the same time prevent or end a government shutdown by voting against a motion to vacate the chair? It’s a tantalizing possibility that must have occurred to the tormented McCarthy, for whom kowtowing to Gaetz must be agonizing. But in an interview with Politico, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark made it clear Democrats would demand a high price for any McCarthy rescue effort....

... We respected the deal that the president made with Speaker McCarthy. And they signed that deal. And 314 of us voted — in an almost equal bipartisan fashion — to support it. And the ink was barely dry when Kevin McCarthy was back trying to placate the extremists in his conference. And he is just telling the American people what matters is him retaining his speakership and they don’t. And so when people come and say, Are Democrats going to help?, it is beyond frustrating.

But that’s not all Democrats want:

We want to get disaster aid out. We want to continue our support for Ukraine. And we want them to end this sham of an impeachment inquiry.

Kaboom.

I’ll just say that the Dems need to be super careful not to create a narrative that the government shutdown is because McCarthy wouldn’t meet their demands.

[malchior]

Trump apparently has expanded his support for a shutdown because it will "defund a weaponized government" that refuses to close the border and stop the political prosecutions against him and other patriots. Super. I saw a massive uptick in extremists already arguing this case and it easily may sway more people in the GOP house caucus. Beyond wondering whether there will be a shutdown which seems more likely by the day, we might have to start thinking about a governance crisis that is much bigger than we thought.

[Smoove_B]

Trump apparently has expanded his support for a shutdown because it will "defund a weaponized government" that refuses to close the border and stop the political prosecutions against him and other patriots. Super. I saw a massive uptick in extremists already arguing this case and it easily may sway more people in the GOP house caucus. Beyond wondering whether there will be a shutdown which seems more likely by the day, we might have to start thinking about a governance crisis that is much bigger than we thought.

In animated .gif form

[El Guapo]

Trump apparently has expanded his support for a shutdown because it will "defund a weaponized government" that refuses to close the border and stop the political prosecutions against him and other patriots. Super. I saw a massive uptick in extremists already arguing this case and it easily may sway more people in the GOP house caucus. Beyond wondering whether there will be a shutdown which seems more likely by the day, we might have to start thinking about a governance crisis that is much bigger than we thought.

To be clear I don't think that a shutdown would do that, though. During a shutdown certain federal employees deemed "essential" continue to work, just (temporarily) without pay. I have to think that anyone working on one of the Trump cases would be included in that category. In fact my impression is that most of DOJ generally winds up being deemed essential, though I'm not 100% certain.

[El Guapo]

Honestly my guess is that the political impact of any shutdown will be small to nonexistent by November 2024.

This is exactly correct. If there was an election next month? They'd be scrambling. Instead, they've called recess for the weekend and will continue to aim the ship towards the iceberg when they resume next week.

I will say that a lot of what I'm reading about the shutdown is Republicans blaming other Republicans, though. I imagine they'll get their messaging more in order during an actual shutdown, but if not that could cause more pain to Republicans than from the last shutdown.

Also if it becomes a shutdown about Republicans trying to shutdown Trump prosecutions, I imagine that would alienate most non-GOP voters? Who knows though these days.

[malchior]

Trump apparently has expanded his support for a shutdown because it will "defund a weaponized government" that refuses to close the border and stop the political prosecutions against him and other patriots. Super. I saw a massive uptick in extremists already arguing this case and it easily may sway more people in the GOP house caucus. Beyond wondering whether there will be a shutdown which seems more likely by the day, we might have to start thinking about a governance crisis that is much bigger than we thought.

To be clear I don't think that a shutdown would do that, though. During a shutdown certain federal employees deemed "essential" continue to work, just (temporarily) without pay. I have to think that anyone working on one of the Trump cases would be included in that category. In fact my impression is that most of DOJ generally winds up being deemed essential, though I'm not 100% certain.

Right. It's way more important though that a leading Presidential candidate called for the suspension of the government to obstruct his trials. Even if as per usual he doesn't understand how anything actually works.

[malchior]

I will say that a lot of what I'm reading about the shutdown is Republicans blaming other Republicans, though. I imagine they'll get their messaging more in order during an actual shutdown, but if not that could cause more pain to Republicans than from the last shutdown.

For once I'm not sure that the GOP will get on the same page. There does to be some actual warring going on here over something of substance to them - the debt level. For the "rebels" this was the same issue that drove the leadership insurrection, the debt limit stand off, and now this. Though to be clear, this fight doesn't really address that core issue since entitlements are off the board. They are just using it to sound serious.

Mostly because several of the hardliners have goals outside Congress. Gaetz wants to succeed DeSantis for instance. On top Trump (erroneously) thinks it helps him which adds a dangerous dynamic. It's hard to know how this will play out or what pressures will emerge but this feels like less cohesive/more chaotic than the usual standoffs.

Also if it becomes a shutdown about Republicans trying to shutdown Trump prosecutions, I imagine that would alienate most non-GOP voters? Who knows though these days.

Unfortunately nothing matters. The NY Times stories about this situation? It was focused on Gaetz. The story managed to talk about Trump's role like this:

Mr. Gaetz also has some influential allies in his corner. His push against a temporary spending bill gained momentum when former President Donald J. Trump weighed in on his website, Truth Social, urging Republicans to vote against a temporary funding measure for a government he accused of being weaponized against him.

“They failed on the debt limit, but they must not fail now,” Mr. Trump wrote, referring to right-wing opposition to the deal Mr. McCarthy made with President Biden to avert a federal debt default.

So...we're fucked. The press is not even trying to inform us of the danger.

[LordMortis]

Everywhere I turn the talking heads are bringing up Geatz and every opiner from every side; left, right, or self interested have nothing nice to say about him. That he can be so hated and still keep moving forward would be impressive if it weren't the damage he does. I'd say he's a TFG is training but enough of the right still love TFG that don't see it. He not even a DeSantis in training and yet he wields such an outsized power for his place.