Octopus Overlords

NYT Daily today is, “The Honeymoon is Over,” and reports on the latest poll which has Trump leading Harris, 48-47%.

The NYT analysis is that Harris hasn’t done enough to define herself, and in the interim, Trump is successfully (1) tying her to Biden’s record - bad economy, high cost of living, porous borders; and (2) defining her as “Komrade Kamala” as a radical Marxist.

So much bullshit, but there’s no question the victory parade was a little premature.

It feels like Harris really needs to crush this debate. The NYT take is, a victory for her is if she can make the debate about Trump - his character deficiencies, his record, his behavior on the debate stage - that will be a win for her.

Alternative take - the news media isn't going to make as much money over the next two months if they continue to report Harris is shellacking Trump in various polls. Horse race coverage will get eyeballs and continue to justify the need for a 24/7 news media entertainment empire.

I guarantee no matter what happens tomorrow night during the debate the NYT or some other GOP mouthpiece will report how it was the first time Trump became President or that he exceeded expectations or whatever bullshit they've been spewing since this summer. It's tiresome.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:15 pm So he called two coin flips correctly?

It wasn't mentioned in the video, but apparently he has successfully called every recent election except W over Al Gore. And that one was decided by what, 300 votes?

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:36 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:15 pm So he called two coin flips correctly?

It wasn't mentioned in the video, but apparently he has successfully called every recent election except W over Al Gore. And that one was decided by what, 300 votes?

Thank you.

Brian wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:29 pm

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:26 pm *sigh*

I'll be under my rug.

It really ties the existential dread together.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:36 pm It wasn't mentioned in the video, but apparently he has successfully called every recent election except W over Al Gore. And that one was decided by what, 300 votes?

Try again. It was decided by The Supreme Court.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:31 pm I guarantee no matter what happens tomorrow night during the debate the NYT or some other GOP mouthpiece will report how it was the first time Trump became President or that he exceeded expectations or whatever bullshit they've been spewing since this summer. It's tiresome.

I am reasonably sure that short of Trump taking a dump live on stage, both sides will claim a flawless victory out of the debate.

And even if he did drop trou, we may still see an article from NYT about Trump’s “bold new metaphor for the failure of the Biden administration”.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:31 pm Alternative take - the news media isn't going to make as much money over the next two months if they continue to report Harris is shellacking Trump in various polls.

This

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 2:11 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:31 pm I guarantee no matter what happens tomorrow night during the debate the NYT or some other GOP mouthpiece will report how it was the first time Trump became President or that he exceeded expectations or whatever bullshit they've been spewing since this summer. It's tiresome.

I am reasonably sure that short of Trump taking a dump live on stage, both sides will claim a flawless victory out of the debate.

And even if he did drop trou, we may still see an article from NYT about Trump’s “bold new metaphor for the failure of the Biden administration”.

Or it would be Harris's insufficient response to Trump's Rump Dump.

nailed it.

Or maybe more of a, "Her response was not Presidential enough..."

yeah, that's what you said.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:59 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:36 pm It wasn't mentioned in the video, but apparently he has successfully called every recent election except W over Al Gore. And that one was decided by what, 300 votes?

Try again. It was decided by The Supreme Court.

So his predictions were even more accurate.

I was told her response didn't have detailed plan and doesn't separate her from Biden (as if this is an implied bad thing)

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 3:07 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:59 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:36 pm It wasn't mentioned in the video, but apparently he has successfully called every recent election except W over Al Gore. And that one was decided by what, 300 votes?

Try again. It was decided by The Supreme Court.

So his predictions were even more accurate.

What I loved is when some guy replied to him on Twitter and said "are the keys in the room with us right now?"

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 3:07 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:59 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:36 pm It wasn't mentioned in the video, but apparently he has successfully called every recent election except W over Al Gore. And that one was decided by what, 300 votes?

Try again. It was decided by The Supreme Court.

So his predictions were even more accurate.

Hari Seldon failed to account for The Mule. Some things defy logical analysis.

Kurth wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 1:26 pm NYT Daily today is, “The Honeymoon is Over,” and reports on the latest poll which has Trump leading Harris, 48-47%.

The NYT analysis is that Harris hasn’t done enough to define herself, and in the interim, Trump is successfully (1) tying her to Biden’s record - bad economy, high cost of living, porous borders; and (2) defining her as “Komrade Kamala” as a radical Marxist.

So much bullshit, but there’s no question the victory parade was a little premature.

It feels like Harris really needs to crush this debate. The NYT take is, a victory for her is if she can make the debate about Trump - his character deficiencies, his record, his behavior on the debate stage - that will be a win for her.

There was no premature victory lap in my opinion. They know the risk of putting a woman of colour at the top of the ticket.

The changing polls just indicate that more people are interested in the election the closer it gets.

As can be seen in polling men who haven’t answered the polling calls yet have said they won’t vote for the democrats as a result. For often no reason other than she is a woman.

The inflation is trumps. The border is trumps - he had four years to deport, 4 years to extend the wall and gave licence to dictators to wage war as they chose on the promise America would of nothing and so they did. Just like in business trump leaves the wreckage for others to fix.

Hyena wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 11:54 am

$iljanus wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 11:14 am Bad shit happens through no fault of your own sometimes and I think our prosperous country can afford to help people out to get them on their feet. There's always going to be people gaming the system but companies and rich folks game the system too and we're not talking about how they are a drain on society. I'd rather live in a country that values compassion with the risk of some people taking advantage of the social safety net vs a dog eat dog capitalist society where those who aren't as successful are just "losers".

I don't know that I've ever seen anyone so directly hit the nail on the head as to my own view on society as you did just now. This is about as perfect an explanation as I've ever heard to express an idea thumping around in my brain cage. Well written, Silj.

“The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members.” - Gandhi

The thing is, the polls aren't changing. The media is falling all over themselves to report on the NYT outlier poll, but the average of polls has barely moved. At 538, the NYT poll is the only one showing Trump with a lead. Everything else is exactly in line (give or take a few tenths of a point here and there) of what we've been seeing for weeks.

Yeah, the race is more or less settled for the moment. Tonight’s debate may very well change that (remember what happened after the LAST debate…).

Trump knows that he can’t make anyone like him who doesn’t already, so his objective is to make the roughly 25% of voters who say they want to know more about Kamala hate her. The GOP had 20 years to stoke Hillary hatred and now they have to plant the same opinion in just a couple of months. Trump will hammer on tying her to the worst aspects of Biden’s record and go after some unsavory bits of her record in California; she has to bend the focus to hope and the future.

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 10:24 am Yeah, the race is more or less settled for the moment. Tonight’s debate may very well change that (remember what happened after the LAST debate…).

Trump knows that he can’t make anyone like him who doesn’t already, so his objective is to make the roughly 25% of voters who say they want to know more about Kamala hate her. The GOP had 20 years to stoke Hillary hatred and now they have to plant the same opinion in just a couple of months. Trump will hammer on tying her to the worst aspects of Biden’s record and go after some unsavory bits of her record in California; she has to bend the focus to hope and the future.

Yeah, I think nationally it seems to have settled into Harris +2 / +3 ish, meaning that we'll get some polls that show Trump +1 and some that show Harris +5 and the like. Which also means, thanks to the electoral college, that we're functionally in tossup territory.

To the extent that Trump's people can get him to focus on strategy, I assume another goal will be to goad Harris into giving a couple answers that they can turn into soundbites to support their preferred narratives. Seems like the main ones that they want are "she's in over her head" which that can tie into their "DEI hire" narrative for the MAGA base. So they'll try to jump on any 'word salad' answers and then try to launder that narrative back into the mainstream media coverage.

I think for Harris the goal is to give Trump enough rope to hang himself - goad him into facially crazy answers.

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 10:24 am

Trump knows that he can’t make anyone like him who doesn’t already, so his objective is to make the roughly 25% of voters who say they want to know more about Kamala hate her.

Keeping him reined in and on message in that regard is going to be the challenge for his handlers. I'm curious to see if he goes full on rally mode tonight and brings up Hannibal Lecter, his love of peppermint patties, the color green and that guy in the back of the room with the hat on...you know, that guy....with the hat?

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 11:41 am To the extent that Trump's people can get him to focus on strategy, I assume another goal will be to goad Harris into giving a couple answers that they can turn into soundbites to support their preferred narratives. Seems like the main ones that they want are "she's in over her head" which that can tie into their "DEI hire" narrative for the MAGA base. So they'll try to jump on any 'word salad' answers and then try to launder that narrative back into the mainstream media coverage.

Border/security, inflation, and failed economy are what they are going for.

I dare them to take up the imigration/border argument, given they/he killed the bill. It shouldn't be hard to plan for a clear and simple answer that explains to America how unserious they are on that one.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 11:41 amI think for Harris the goal is to give Trump enough rope to hang himself - goad him into facially crazy answers.

So, like, get him to speak? Seems likely.

Abortion rights is where I want to see them push too. If Trump does the usual "even dems wanted Roe vs Wade struck down so it would go back to the states" blatant lie again, like he did last time, that should be front and center on every Harris campaign ad thereafter. That one is just so astoundingly false it's not even funny.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:05 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 11:41 amI think for Harris the goal is to give Trump enough rope to hang himself - goad him into facially crazy answers.

So, like, get him to speak? Seems likely.

Indeed, but some are crazier than others. Like it would be fantastic if she can get Trump to say "the late, great Hannibal Lecter" on stage.

hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:07 pm Abortion rights is where I want to see them push too. If Trump does the usual "even dems wanted Roe vs Wade struck down so it would go back to the states" blatant lie again, like he did last time, that should be front and center on every Harris campaign ad thereafter. That one is just so astoundingly false it's not even funny.

Absolutely. This Supreme Court and its actions should be on the table and hammered and tied to TFG and his Congress again and again and again. Never forgotten. That and the "patriots" of 1/6.

I actually think Trump may reign in the craziness tonight, because recently he's been made aware of how much of a lunatic he sounds like and has attempted to make excuses for it. He talked about "weaving" as an excuse for his rambling incoherence, and he also recently defended his Hannibal Lecter remarks in that he was just drawing a parallel to the kinds of people that were coming over the border.

This is where I'd be very cautious of underestimating Trump. He's hyper-aware of how the media portrays him, and I think he's going to be very vigilant about not acting like a total lunatic. Oh, he'll still trout out lie after lie, but I expect him to be rather subdued in his delivery. And of course, the press will remark how incredibly normal he acted compared to Kamala's "shaky" performance.

The non far right press are itching to talk about her being light on detailed plans. I mean look at how detailed TFG's health care fix and how he was going to make Mexico pay for a wall when he got elected and how specific he is now. Project 2025 lays it all out.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:18 pm he also recently defended his Hannibal Lecter remarks in that he was just drawing a parallel to the kinds of people that were coming over the border.

I am hoping she's able to ask him tonight if he really thinks political asylum and insane asylums are the same thing.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:18 pm I actually think Trump may reign in the craziness tonight, because recently he's been made aware of how much of a lunatic he sounds like and has attempted to make excuses for it.

He’ll succeed at that for 10 or 15 minutes. Harris knows how to push his buttons, and of course he’ll decide the moderators are ganging up on him too. He can't help but produce a steady stream of misogyny because that’s who he is...and most of the persuadable voters are women.

I really hope they have in mind the concept of fact-checking his comments as he makes them. I know it's going to be hard with OR without open mics (still not sure what they settled on), simply because he won't let anyone get a word in edge-wise. But if she can call him out and then counter with her logical ideas, it should be a much easier task to show how categorically deceitful and unhinged he is. I know somehow the right is going to claim success, even if he comes unglued, but I hope at least she can make a case for herself as the calm to his chaos. Please, call him out on his lies!!

LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:29 pm The non far right press are itching to talk about her being light on detailed plans. I mean look at how detailed TFG's health care fix and how he was going to make Mexico pay for a wall when he got elected and how specific he is now. Project 2025 lays it all out.

It's like you have a microphone in my kitchen and you are trolling me. Not kidding. very weird.

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:39 pm
He’ll succeed at that for 10 or 15 minutes. Harris knows how to push his buttons, and of course he’ll decide the moderators are ganging up on him too. He can't help but produce a steady stream of misogyny because that’s who he is...and most of the persuadable voters are women.

Every time she counters anything he says, watch for his expression and then hear in your head Trump screaming "but you're not white....AND YOU'RE A WOMAN!".

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:05 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 11:41 amI think for Harris the goal is to give Trump enough rope to hang himself - goad him into facially crazy answers.

So, like, get him to speak? Seems likely.

I was gonna say; facially crazy like, his "O" face that he makes when he speaks?

I imagine they've had him sitting in front of a power point slide show presentation these last few weeks, flashing numerous images while he's rambling through an answer. They'll randomly flash pictures of Harris on the screen and if he says "Black" or "Woman" they give him a mild shock.

Debate prep for Trump is like a monkey watching a water wheel. He's vaguely aware SOMETHING is going on, but for the life of him he doesn't know what.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:59 pm I imagine they've had him sitting in front of a power point slide show presentation these last few weeks, flashing numerous images while he's rambling through an answer. They'll randomly flash pictures of Harris on the screen and if he says "Black" or "Woman" they give him a mild shock.

My students just asked me why I coughed and nearly spit my covfefe out.

Big question here. If she goads him enough, and he blurts out a bad word during the debate. Will they bleep him ?

Hyena wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 12:39 pm I really hope they have in mind the concept of fact-checking his comments as he makes them. I know it's going to be hard with OR without open mics (still not sure what they settled on), simply because he won't let anyone get a word in edge-wise. But if she can call him out and then counter with her logical ideas, it should be a much easier task to show how categorically deceitful and unhinged he is. I know somehow the right is going to claim success, even if he comes unglued, but I hope at least she can make a case for herself as the calm to his chaos. Please, call him out on his lies!!

If I have it right, the debate moderators have already said that they will not be fact-checking in real-time. Hopefully they'll push back on the most egregious lies, but...

My hope is that the Harris team already has a mechanism in place to fact-check in parallel real-time (via social media) or else to push out an annotated list of Trump's lies within minutes of the conclusion of the debate--and that Harris will be pointing everyone's attention to this resource at every opportunity.

We need to hear her say something like "You're lying, and we have the facts for you" over and over again. It should be the slogan of the evening.