Octopus Overlords

Hi guys. My cabin had no wifi access. Surprised we had running water because it was deep in the smokies.
sitting in a shopping center parking lot now. Be home tonight and hope to get caught up.

Unagi wrote:If that's a request for input; I would say we should learn what the wolves know. They don't know anything about bb2112 right now, but they do know what Qantaga was. Obviously we want to know both, but we won't be able to catch up on autopsies until they kill one of the uncontested specials.

that's my opinion.

I agree 100%!

Lassr wrote:Hi guys. My cabin had no wifi access. Surprised we had running water because it was deep in the smokies.
sitting in a shopping center parking lot now. Be home tonight and hope to get caught up.

Been there. Driving through small towns looking for internet access and paying crazy cafe prices when I find one. Thankfully things have really changed in the last five years and pretty much every McDonalds has WiFi and don't charge you $10 every fifteen minutes of use anymore.

The Dawn came quickly and it was with heavy hearts the village noted that triggercut was missing. Remus volunteered to check and his blanched visage told them everything they needed to know.

Who would the gallows claim today?

Villagers - Who will you lynch today?
Hunter - on whom will you pass your judgement?
Medium - with whom will you speak?

There are 12 villagers + 3 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is July 3rd at 1pm Eastern time (please check my math).

redrun told me that he contacted Qantaga previously, and Qantaga said he was a villager. Thus, we scanned bb2112.

And.

bb2112 was the Seer.

So. Remus is a lying wolf, and of course the Berzerker. This seems like a good opportunity to use the Hunter shot.

Who'da thunk?

Anyhoo at 15 players left, with no wolves being found my trust for a living remus would go away at

/tries to do math

...3 wolves plus a boom makes 8 or 9 players remaining. Add in factor for "oops" I didn't think of that and make it 11.

So I'd still give him two days without lynching a wolf. Add one for each wolf that gets lynched. After that he'd go on the chopping block before it's absolutely too late.

...

And time to wait for his check in...

Remus you have some explaining to do!!!

 Remus West 
 

Lagom Lite wrote:redrun told me that he contacted Qantaga previously, and Qantaga said he was a villager. Thus, we scanned bb2112.

And.

bb2112 was the Seer.

And there we go. BB2112, why didn't you speak up!!!!!

 Remus West 
 

tru1cy wrote:Remus you have some explaining to do!!!

 Remus West 
 

Could you please remove this vote before Remus finds a way to go boom?

Point taken

 remove Remus West 
 

LordMortis wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:redrun told me that he contacted Qantaga previously, and Qantaga said he was a villager. Thus, we scanned bb2112.

And.

bb2112 was the Seer.

And there we go. BB2112, why didn't you speak up!!!!!

 Remus West 
 

I'm trying to find a polite way to ask folks why they are so freaking stupid as to be voting for Remus right now...

He has to be lynched before he goes boom


Beserker - responsible for turning in Night Kill before deadline if Alpha & Beta are dead. If lynched, can choose one player to kill before being lynched.

Wow... my conspiracy theory was right.



 RW 
 

Vorret wrote:Wow... my conspiracy theory was right.



 RW 
 

Dammit! The only good remus is a dead remus.

Holding off on voting, per request above. Vorret, are you looking to give them opportunity?

I wonder why BB didn't say anything, that's so weird.

Now... he said he scanned Unagi and CR ... he had no way to know if either of them we're the hunter so it was a big gamble to name them , though one of them could also be the other wolf (risky).

We should lynch them next.

will remove my vote for the paranoid  withdraw Remus West 
 
Btw, what do you expect him to tell use


Btw,  seance bb2112 
 

purge wrote:

Vorret wrote:Wow... my conspiracy theory was right.



 RW 
 

Dammit! The only good remus is a dead remus.

Holding off on voting, per request above. Vorret, are you looking to give them opportunity?

So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.

tru1cy wrote:will remove my vote for the paranoid  withdraw Remus West 
 
Btw, what do you expect him to tell use


Btw,  seance bb2112 
 

We can't sceance, the medium is dead!

He also claimed Redrun was good so that's another one we can add to the potential wolf list.

I mean purge.
I need some time off

Vorret wrote:So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.

1) He could blow up the hunter.
2) The hunter can blow him up first and as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive.

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.

1) He could blow up the hunter.
2) The hunter can blow him up first and as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive.

True, but he doesn't know who the hunter is.
sure the field is small but it's still a crapshoot.

Vorret wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.

1) He could blow up the hunter.
2) The hunter can blow him up first and as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive.

True, but he doesn't know who the hunter is.
sure the field is small but it's still a crapshoot.

3) The numbers for lynch change until the hunter shoots.

/does math again. Hates this...

15 players = majority of 8
14 players = majority of 8

So boom favors the wolves until the hunter dies. If the hunter dies at night (or dies from a boom) then the boom always favors the wolves.
This is weighed against the potential to protect a target of value and the idea that the hunter can reveal at any time. I couldn't begin to know how to calculate that value and it's something the hunter has to calculate for himself.

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.

1) He could blow up the hunter.
2) The hunter can blow him up first and as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive.

True, but he doesn't know who the hunter is.
sure the field is small but it's still a crapshoot.

3) The numbers for lynch change until the hunter shoots.

/does math again. Hates this...

15 players = majority of 8
14 players = majority of 8

So boom favors the wolves until the hunter dies. If the hunter dies at night (or dies from a boom) then the boom always favors the wolves.
This is weighed against the potential to protect a target of value and the idea that the hunter can reveal at any time. I couldn't begin to know how to calculate that value and it's something the hunter has to calculate for himself.

I'm gonna be honest with you LM, you just lost me there

Anyhoo, while we wait to see what happens I need to reinsert Unagi, chaosraven, and purge into the list, so

purge
Vorret
Lassr
chaosraven
Scoop20906
Grund
RMC
Unagi
pr0ner
LordMortis


Purge goes right to the top. He was my either/or with bb2112 way back when, when it wall went crazy

I don't expect the lead a charge but that's it. Chaosraven's absence even after remus cleared him shoots him straight toward the top. Unagi stays at the bottom and someone I'm not likely to ever vote for.

Or course if the hunter doesn't elect to shoot remus then I vote for him first and foremost.

I'm 2nd?
You really don't trust me

Vorret wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.

1) He could blow up the hunter.
2) The hunter can blow him up first and as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive.

True, but he doesn't know who the hunter is.
sure the field is small but it's still a crapshoot.

3) The numbers for lynch change until the hunter shoots.

/does math again. Hates this...

15 players = majority of 8
14 players = majority of 8

So boom favors the wolves until the hunter dies. If the hunter dies at night (or dies from a boom) then the boom always favors the wolves.
This is weighed against the potential to protect a target of value and the idea that the hunter can reveal at any time. I couldn't begin to know how to calculate that value and it's something the hunter has to calculate for himself.

I'm gonna be honest with you LM, you just lost me there

All else being equal, an even number of players favors the wolves an odd number favors the village.


Four players left with one wolf and you lynch wrong, the wolves win.

vs.

Three players left with one wolf and you lynch wrong, the wolves win.


It a huge difference.

Vorret wrote:I'm 2nd?
You really don't trust me

If it's of any consequence, I was way off with bb2112 and I had no reservations with getting on the El Guapo train as it was forming.

Vorret wrote:I mean purge.
I need some time off

Vorret and Purge you say... would you like to name the third wolf while you're at it?

redrun wrote:

Vorret wrote:I mean purge.
I need some time off

Vorret and Purge you say... would you like to name the third wolf while you're at it?

Uh?
I wasn't naming any wolf, I'm naming possible wolves. players that we're cleared by Remus. Unagi, Chaos Raven and Purge.

They could all be good but a wolf could be hiding in there as well so , imo, it's something that's worth looking into.

tru1cy wrote:He has to be lynched before he goes boom


Beserker - responsible for turning in Night Kill before deadline if Alpha & Beta are dead. If lynched, can choose one player to kill before being lynched.

Yes, I know, but I'd rather not let the vote get too close. In retrospect, I probably spoke too fast and furious, however I was admazed at a cabelist voting for the guy who was likely to be the berserker.

So, followups to this new knowledge:
Add me to the list that would like to see Remus shot.
Lot's of re-reading to do.
It'll be interesting to see who was pushing hard for no scan of BB2112.

At the current time, once Remus is shot I'd like to see Vorret on the gallows.

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Vorret wrote:So what if he blows up? We have no *important* good villager left, if a Cabal goes we still have 2 others left.
The medium is dead as well so... who cares?

Does it waste the lynch if he decide to blow up? If not, I'd be happy to see Remus go boom so we can lynch Unagi or CR.

1) He could blow up the hunter.
2) The hunter can blow him up first and as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive.

True, but he doesn't know who the hunter is.
sure the field is small but it's still a crapshoot.

3) The numbers for lynch change until the hunter shoots.

/does math again. Hates this...

15 players = majority of 8
14 players = majority of 8

So boom favors the wolves until the hunter dies. If the hunter dies at night (or dies from a boom) then the boom always favors the wolves.
This is weighed against the potential to protect a target of value and the idea that the hunter can reveal at any time. I couldn't begin to know how to calculate that value and it's something the hunter has to calculate for himself.

I'm gonna be honest with you LM, you just lost me there

All else being equal, an even number of players favors the wolves an odd number favors the village.


Four players left with one wolf and you lynch wrong, the wolves win.

vs.

Three players left with one wolf and you lynch wrong, the wolves win.


It a huge difference.

VICTORY

The Villagers win if they kill all the Werewolves, and there is at least one non-Werewolf left alive. The Sorcerer is counted as a non-Werewolf, even though he is on the "winning" side if the Werewolves win.

The Werewolf team wins if the number of non-Werewolves equals the number of Werewolves at any time during the game cycle.

4 villagers vs 1 wolf you can still win it, we kill the wrong one - 3 vs 1, wolf kill one, 2vs1 then you need to lynch the wolf or you lose.

that's how I read it anyway.

redrun wrote:

tru1cy wrote:He has to be lynched before he goes boom


Beserker - responsible for turning in Night Kill before deadline if Alpha & Beta are dead. If lynched, can choose one player to kill before being lynched.

Yes, I know, but I'd rather not let the vote get too close. In retrospect, I probably spoke too fast and furious, however I was admazed at a cabelist voting for the guy who was likely to be the berserker.

So, followups to this new knowledge:
Add me to the list that would like to see Remus shot.
Lot's of re-reading to do.
It'll be interesting to see who was pushing hard for no scan of BB2112.

At the current time, once Remus is shot I'd like to see Vorret on the gallows.

What?
I wanted BB sceanced and I'm the one who felt like the whole remus being good shady. But sure I'm obviously the right target here not the 3 people Wolfmus cleared.

Vorret wrote:
4 villagers vs 1 wolf you can still win it, we kill the wrong one - 3 vs 1, wolf kill one, 2vs1 then you need to lynch the wolf or you lose.

that's how I read it anyway.

4 v 1 you can lynch wrong and win
3 v 1 you cannot lynch wrong and win
2 v 1 you cannon lynch wrong and win

Which is to say even numbers favor the wolves. The last guess wrong guess is way harder and gaining a majority, in general is harder, while allowing wolves to hide better.

We are currently at 15 players. If the wolf goes boom and hunter never gets his shot then this favors the wolves.

Technically, if the hunter shoots the berzerker, this favors the wolves in count... Except the hunter kills the berzerker

Again, I don't know how to weigh this against 1) the hunter being able to come out and shoot someone when his back is against the wall and he is being voted against and 2) his being able to gain successful saves at night. The wolves can't really not go after knowns for long but then many of us have indicated we are not the hunter.



Which goes back to math type thinking, I'm not likely to figure out.

4 knowns (potentially 5 at least today (Again as far as I can tell the hunter must be alive))

15 living players.

1 outed wolf, presumably the berzerker.

alright alright.

 WD RW 
 


For now.

Too many pages. I'm trying to get to where Remus comes out as seer to see bb2112's reaction but it gets to be too much before i get there. Maybe this weekend.

Chaosraven, purge and Unagi are back on the suspect list.

We need to examine the possibility that Remus is actually NOT the Berzerker. Since Remus claimed Seer before he was in any danger, he knew he would be targeted by the Hunter. Therefore, it stands to reason that the wolves are better off keeping their real Berzerker hidden, instead sacrificing a normal wolf to the Shooter.

Maybe we should do what LordMortis suggests, and simply leave Remus hanging for a couple of days. No pun intended.

My top suspect is Grundbegriff.

The last wolf is trickier to find, but I suspect he is one of:
Chaosraven
Unagi
Scoop20906
Lassr
Vorret
purge
RMC

I feel strongly that pr0ner and LordMortis are good.

I'd urge people to go back and re-read the thread. Now is a great time, there's loads of useful data there now that we know who some wolves are.

Lagom Lite wrote:Maybe we should do what LordMortis suggests, and simply leave Remus hanging for a couple of days. No pun intended.

That suggestion was before you revelation when it felt like he was lying even though he was undisputed. Or at least I was typing it before your revelation. I don't think that now. He never believe known evil should live unless you have a really good reason to let them live.

Ha, OK - I am not really at all shocked with the Remus fake. I thought it would be Qantaga as the Seer though.

And I agree, Remus needs to be shot in the face.

After that, not sure. Not sure how to read Scoop's night time 'gut' comment. Not sure why it bothered me. purge is now absolutely someone I would like to test. I was voting for purge when Remus cleared him, and I think I had people interested in voting purge at the time, IIRC. Still not sure about Lassr and Grund as well.

redrun wrote:It'll be interesting to see who was pushing hard for no scan of BB2112.

I did. I didn't know that Qantaga already claimed to you he was a villager. Am I missing something? They can't have known that BB2112 was the Seer