Octopus Overlords

tru1cy wrote:I think we should test Remus West "scans"

One of the scan was CR, maybe he went with all villagers ?

My idea is that putting 3 "real" villagers there gave him 3 person who could back him up (well before we found out about BB) and it protects the wolves once he dies, which he knew would happen and it's only 3 people, not a big pool to hide in.

I think we'll be wasting our time if we lynch the 3 wolfscan.

Vorret wrote:

tru1cy wrote:I think we should test Remus West "scans"

One of the scan was CR, maybe he went with all villagers ?

Maybe, but can we chance it?

tru1cy wrote:

Vorret wrote:

tru1cy wrote:I think we should test Remus West "scans"

One of the scan was CR, maybe he went with all villagers ?

Maybe, but can we chance it?

It's a risk, I agree, but he knew he would be found at some point, I believe his objective was to out the hunter, which he failed to do but got every single other important special out. I don't see any reason to hide any of the other 2 wolves in a very small pool of 3 players when there's a big pool of unknown laying there.

Stessier if the Cabal decided to scan Remus would it reveal his specific role?

tru1cy wrote:Stessier if the Cabal decided to scan Remus would it reveal his specific role?

Yes, it would show Wolf or Berserker.

Day 4 Vote Count
Votes required for lynch - 8

Against purge (1): Unagi
Against LordMortis (1): theohall
Against Grund (1): Scoop

No votes (11) - Lassr, Vorret, tru1cy, RMC, Purge, Grundbegriff, pr0ner, Chaosraven, redrun, Lagom Lite, LordMortis



Votes for Seance Requires as least 8 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

For bb2112 (1): tru1cy


There are 12 villagers + 2 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is July 3rd at 1pm Eastern time (please check my math).

 purge 
 

Looks like we're getting check in, hopefully we'll get more (Lassr, Vorret, RMC, Purge, Grundbegriff) so I'll throw in my hat for  vorret 
 
for now. My next choice remains lassr.

Still obsessed with me I see

I'll stick to my obsession as well

 Grund 
 

 Unagi 
 
Remus could have cleared a packmate to put him in our trusted

tru1cy wrote: Unagi 
 
Remus could have cleared a packmate to put him in our trusted

And I think he did too.
Could I give you a couple reasons to test purge with me?
1) Purge has very light game-posts with people, not the case with me.
2) Purge was part of Remus' first set of claims, I was added on the 2nd day.
3) Someone else said it before, purge disappears when he is a wolf... and where is he?
4) Do you think Remus would add me to his list of scans in order to 'clear me' or in order to get my ass lynched?

 vorret 
 


Why? To satisfy Theohall's assumption that I have been pushing vorret.

Plus his post above about thinking it is a waste of time to lynch Remus scans. I said if I was faking I would list all citizens but I don't know what Remus did. Vorret's post just seems like he knows and is trying again to look good/smart/correct if we happen to go that route and find innocents.

Unagi wrote:

tru1cy wrote: Unagi 
 
Remus could have cleared a packmate to put him in our trusted

And I think he did too.
Could I give you a couple reasons to test purge with me?
1) Purge has very light game-posts with people, not the case with me.
2) Purge was part of Remus' first set of claims, I was added on the 2nd day.
3) Someone else said it before, purge disappears when he is a wolf... and where is he?
4) Do you think Remus would add me to his list of scans in order to 'clear me' or in order to get my ass lynched?

Food for thought...

Will leave my vote here.. its not set in stone.

Unagi wrote:

tru1cy wrote: Unagi 
 
Remus could have cleared a packmate to put him in our trusted

And I think he did too.
Could I give you a couple reasons to test purge with me?
1) Purge has very light game-posts with people, not the case with me.
2) Purge was part of Remus' first set of claims, I was added on the 2nd day.
3) Someone else said it before, purge disappears when he is a wolf... and where is he?
4) Do you think Remus would add me to his list of scans in order to 'clear me' or in order to get my ass lynched?

I agree, Purge is the most likely candidate. He is distracted due to IRL issues. Lynch me if you must - it will be a miss.

We have a redonkulous (is that a word?) provens.

What's the count at, 5 of 14?

Dinner Menu for BBQ Late Night
--------------------------
Hunter: Chaosraven
Cabal: Lagom Lite
Cabal: theohall
Cabal: tru1cy
Mentalist: redrun

villager + 2 Wolves
-----------------
Grundbegriff
Lassr
Vorret
RMC
purge
pr0ner
Scoop20906
Unagi
LordMortis

IIRC, hunter can't self-protect, so CR is going to be dead by dawn - there's no way the wolves would let him live and risk a night miss. The mentalist can probe at night, but not really learn anything except hoping to catch a wolf in a lie. The cabalists can continue to scan the dead, but it's unimportant at this point - there are no roles unrevealed. For the purpose of the list below, I`ve simply used any provens (save Hunter) in place of night kills.

5 proven
2 wolves
7 villagers
V:W
13:02 Lynch miss #1
12:02 Night kill Hunter
11:02 Lynch miss #2
10:02 Night kill Cabalist
09:02 Lynch miss #3
08:02 Night kill Cabalist
07:02 Lynch miss #4
06:02 Night kill Cabalist
05:02 Lynch miss #5
04:02 Night kill Mentalist
03:02 Lynch miss #6
02:02 wolves win


They will literally need to exhaust every single proven in night kills and we`d have to miss SIX times (out of 9) for them to win. At this point, this game becomes a students exercise. Sure, there is investigation, but at this point I think we`ve won.

If Remus is not the zerker, there may be another 1:1 loss - but that ain`t exactly in their best interest either since no player is worth killing over losing their own.

purge wrote:For the purpose of the list below, I`ve simply used any provens (save Hunter) in place of night kills.

5 proven
2 wolves
7 villagers
V:W
13:02 Lynch miss #1
12:02 Night kill Hunter
11:02 Lynch miss #2
10:02 Night kill Cabalist
09:02 Lynch miss #3
08:02 Night kill Cabalist
07:02 Lynch miss #4
06:02 Night kill Cabalist
05:02 Lynch miss #5
04:02 Night kill Mentalist
03:02 Lynch miss #6
02:02 wolves win
They will literally need to exhaust every single proven in night kills and we`d have to miss SIX times (out of 9) for them to win.

That ain't right. I've already shed this light.
We have 14 total (12 good and two wolves), but after a hypothetical "miss #1" today
you show either a population of 13 + 2 (==15) or 12+2 (==14)-- no way!
Right now, the pop is 12 + 2. If we miss and turn the screw
We enter night with 2 + 11. Who knows what's next? Only heaven.

GG.GG.GG.GG.GG.GG.WW <--- NOW
miss/slay
GG.GG.GG.GG.GG.WW <-- Tomorrow
miss/slay
GG.GG.GG.GG.WW <-- uebertomorrow
miss/slay
GG.GG.GG.WW <-- superduperMorgen
miss/slay
GG.GG.WW <-- D-Day
miss/slay for Lupine Victory
GG.WW

I've said before and say once more,
Our maximum count for misses? Four.

Numbers are offset by 1. I blame T3s

Regardless, the proven pool puts us in reach. The only real risk at this point is remucide... And his face is all over the town square.

Your formatting is off ... We are currently at PP PP PG GG GG GG WW

Lets go mathimagical - and bear with me, I type this on my phone via a web interface.
Our pool is 9, not 14. Today we have a random chance of hitting 2/9 or 22%.

Wolves would be stupid to thin the herd and improving our chances, so tomorrow is 2/8 or25%

Statistically speaking, we'd have to kill almost half the pool and not nail one wolf.
That is 22%, 25%, 29%, 33% at chance ONLY. We're not operating in a vacuum though. If we bag a wolf the odds get smaller, but the chances go up.

To use your format:

PG PG PG PG PG GG WW
hit/kill
PG PG PG PG GG G W
miss/kill
PG PG PG GG G W
miss/kill
PG PG GG G W
miss/kill
PG GG G W
miss/kill
GG G W
miss/kill
LOSS
In either scenario, there are enough provens that we(besides the last lynch) have a trusted

Ok so we have until next Wednesday to sort out a plan of action.

Grundbegriff
Lassr
Vorret
RMC
purge
pr0ner
Scoop20906
Unagi
LordMortis

---------------------

Step One on my List to Do:
Find everything bb2112 said or did regarding the above
Step Two:
Find everything Remus Waste said or did regarding the above

In the latter case, were there any players he did NOT interact with in thread?

Lastly, VOTES and POSTS.

(man I wish stessier was my Mason Brother, he'd have this all done before I got home from work tomorrow... )

Chaosraven wrote:Remus Waste

purge wrote:Your formatting is off ... We are currently at PP PP PG GG GG GG WW

You're trying to correct me, but my chart's not broken.
You introduce odds and hits. What are you smokin'?

Irrespective of Special status, each miss/slay pair in the apparatus
Brings us closer to our doom. Here's the simple fact: there's only so much room.

I'll flag the specials just to appease you.
Here's a legend, if it please you:

M = Mentalist
G = GrandMaster
S = Seneschal
P = Preceptor
H = Huntardian
a = Villager 1
b = Villager 2
c = Villager 3
d = Villager 4
e = Villager 5
f = Villager 6
g = Villager 7
W = Wolf 1
w = wolf2

Assume when we miss we always lynch a peasant,
And each night a special meets an end unpleasant:

MG.SP.Ha.bc.de.fg.Ww < -- now
-H, -a (day, night) <<< one strike! >>>

MG.SP.bc.de.fg.Ww < -- tomorrow
-P, -b (day, night) <<< two strikes! >>>

MG.S.c.de.fg.Ww < -- uebertomorrow
-S, -c (day, night) <<< three strikes! >>>

MG.de.fg.Ww < -- superdupermorrow
-G, -d (day, night) <<< four strikes! >>>

M.e.fg.Ww < -- D-Day
-M, -e (day, night) <<< Lupine Victory (fg.Ww) >>>

As you can see, we have four strikes. No doubt
Strike number five would doom us all-- a rout!
So let's review the facts and score a hit.
That'll turn the fire up a bit!

 withdraw grund 
 

Day 4 Vote Count
Votes required for lynch - 8

Against purge (2): Unagi, pr0ner
Against Vorret (2): Lassr, LordMortis
Against LordMortis (1): theohall
Against Grund (1): Scoop
Against Unagi (1): tru1cy

No votes (7) - RMC, Purge, Grundbegriff, Chaosraven, redrun, Lagom Lite, Vorret



Votes for Seance Requires as least 8 Votes of which the Medium must be 1

For bb2112 (1): tru1cy


There are 12 villagers + 2 wolves alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is July 3rd at 1pm Eastern time (please check my math).

And I am moving toward believing we are dragging which sends me into protest vote mode.

 withdraw vorret
accuse Grund 
 


RMC is steadily moving from ??? to ought to be hung.

From RMC today. "I will post later tonight" or some such thing
From Grund today. Retreads of what has already been said.

LordMortis wrote:And I am moving toward believing we are dragging which sends me into protest vote mode.

 withdraw vorret
accuse Grund 
 


RMC is steadily moving from ??? to ought to be hung.

From RMC today. "I will post later tonight" or some such thing
From Grund today. Retreads of what has already been said.

Sorry I said I hoped to have time. I am a villager, just not a lot to add. <shrug> We got had by Remus, and when I brought up that possibility I was told "not likely" by everyone. Then it was discovered he was a wolf. That is my only real defense that I am a villager. Take it for what that is.

I have not had a chance to reread everything, and we have time, so what is the rush?

RMC wrote: so what is the rush?

1) we make the game drag. If we are going to come down to the wire every day, then please, take my position from "better sooner than later" to "listen to Theo. I'm a wolf."
2) We've used 5 days. We have 8 days remaining. Your opinion on the day so far, the previous 3 days?
3) Essentially the people driving the vote need our weigh in, our interaction to drive them. Then a consensus needs to come afterward.

I admit I am having a harder time getting a feel for people this game due interruptions. First vacation now my wife's surgery. Grund always said he should be lynched if alive on day 3 or 4.

I am voting vorret currently for the exact reason theohall says he is innocent. Remus and him voting against each other early in the game. I have no problem switching my vote to another target though.

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I see no reason to change my vote at this time. Remus probably used his fake seer coverage to hide one of his packmates

Lassr wrote:I admit I am having a harder time getting a feel for people this game due interruptions. First vacation now my wife's surgery. Grund always said he should be lynched if alive on day 3 or 4.

I am voting vorret currently for the exact reason theohall says he is innocent. Remus and him voting against each other early in the game. I have no problem switching my vote to another target though.

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I never voted against Remus, I've always been voting against Grund and Baktosh early.
I became very suspicious of Remus after his BB quick lynch and asked if anyone confirmed he was the Seer after he quickly disposed of El Guapo later on.

For some unknown reason, I've been targeted early by both Remus and LM, though this make me believe LM is good since I don't think two wolves would gang on one player like that.

My suspicions on Grund are slowly fading away so this is bad for me since I've been way too focused on him and not enough on anyone else, I'll need to do some reading!

Vorret wrote:

Lassr wrote:I admit I am having a harder time getting a feel for people this game due interruptions. First vacation now my wife's surgery. Grund always said he should be lynched if alive on day 3 or 4.

I am voting vorret currently for the exact reason theohall says he is innocent. Remus and him voting against each other early in the game. I have no problem switching my vote to another target though.

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I never voted against Remus, I've always been voting against Grund and Baktosh early.
I became very suspicious of Remus after his BB quick lynch and asked if anyone confirmed he was the Seer after he quickly disposed of El Guapo later on.

For some unknown reason, I've been targeted early by both Remus and LM, though this make me believe LM is good since I don't think two wolves would gang on one player like that.

My suspicions on Grund are slowly fading away so this is bad for me since I've been way too focused on him and not enough on anyone else, I'll need to do some reading!

Wait. So you did not vote for Remus?
Who said you had? I saw it somewhere. I did not look because it is too difficult on the kindle

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Lassr wrote:

Vorret wrote:

Lassr wrote:I admit I am having a harder time getting a feel for people this game due interruptions. First vacation now my wife's surgery. Grund always said he should be lynched if alive on day 3 or 4.

I am voting vorret currently for the exact reason theohall says he is innocent. Remus and him voting against each other early in the game. I have no problem switching my vote to another target though.

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I never voted against Remus, I've always been voting against Grund and Baktosh early.
I became very suspicious of Remus after his BB quick lynch and asked if anyone confirmed he was the Seer after he quickly disposed of El Guapo later on.

For some unknown reason, I've been targeted early by both Remus and LM, though this make me believe LM is good since I don't think two wolves would gang on one player like that.

My suspicions on Grund are slowly fading away so this is bad for me since I've been way too focused on him and not enough on anyone else, I'll need to do some reading!

Wait. So you did not vote for Remus?
Who said you had? I saw it somewhere. I did not look because it is too difficult on the kindle

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Well I did when we found out he was a wolf, but not early game as you said.
Sorry I did not explain it properly !

It would seem theohall was saying you were really pushing for Remus. I need to wait and do this myself instead of relying on others memory. Kindle shows I have 171 pages to search thru tapatalk. No time for that now.

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Odds are at least two wolves voted for bb2112. With Chaosraven being the Hunter, one of these three is probably a wolf: Lord Mortis, Unagi, or Lassr. Of these three, one is pulling the don't believe Theo thing. Ask yourself, is it reasonable that one of those three is likely a wolf, and who is trying to get us to ignore it?

theohall wrote:Odds are at least two wolves voted for bb2112. With Chaosraven being the Hunter, one of these three is probably a wolf: Lord Mortis, Unagi, or Lassr. Of these three, one is pulling the don't believe Theo thing. Ask yourself, is it reasonable that one of those three is likely a wolf, and who is trying to get us to ignore it?

It would be unagi or LM then. I could believe it is unagi more than LM

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theohall wrote:Odds are at least two wolves voted for bb2112. With Chaosraven being the Hunter, one of these three is probably a wolf: Lord Mortis, Unagi, or Lassr. Of these three, one is pulling the don't believe Theo thing. Ask yourself, is it reasonable that one of those three is likely a wolf, and who is trying to get us to ignore it?

Continuing on this, why not work through these three, since it should get us at least one lynch? One thing that is clear, Lord Mortis and Remus West were on the same page quite a bit, while Lord Mortis seems to be carrying on with Remus West's accusations.

theohall wrote:

theohall wrote:Odds are at least two wolves voted for bb2112. With Chaosraven being the Hunter, one of these three is probably a wolf: Lord Mortis, Unagi, or Lassr. Of these three, one is pulling the don't believe Theo thing. Ask yourself, is it reasonable that one of those three is likely a wolf, and who is trying to get us to ignore it?

Continuing on this, why not work through these three, since it should get us at least one lynch? One thing that is clear, Lord Mortis and Remus West were on the same page quite a bit, while Lord Mortis seems to be carrying on with Remus West's accusations.

Funny, the more your weather vane points away from Vorret the more I'm drawn back to him, which is especially funny because normally I'm a proponent of following knowns.

theohall wrote:

theohall wrote:Odds are at least two wolves voted for bb2112. With Chaosraven being the Hunter, one of these three is probably a wolf: Lord Mortis, Unagi, or Lassr. Of these three, one is pulling the don't believe Theo thing. Ask yourself, is it reasonable that one of those three is likely a wolf, and who is trying to get us to ignore it?

Continuing on this, why not work through these three, since it should get us at least one lynch? One thing that is clear, Lord Mortis and Remus West were on the same page quite a bit, while Lord Mortis seems to be carrying on with Remus West's accusations.

He wouldn't put himself in the spotlight like that... well I don't think so anyway.
Wolf are usually quieter, except Remus cause he's the Wolfxpert but Baktosh wasn't talking much so maybe we should look at who isn't saying much.

- RMC
- Scoop

 RMC 
 


Very reserved - Check
Tried early to distance himself from Remuswolf - Check

He's a good candidate.

LordMortis wrote:

Remus West wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Daybreak will not occur before Friday, May 17 at 6am Eastern.

Unagi's not dead yet?

How am I supposed to accuse chaosraven until you publish that Unagi is dead?

I thought we had agreed that you were going to accuse me to throw off suspicion of you after my inevitable lynching and I was going to accuse bb2112 because it would be funny if I could get him lynched before me. Now I'm confused.

I agree to no such thing. I'm sticking to the plan. Unagi's first.

Trying to read from the beginning. This statement made me pause...wolves taunting in the open?

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Tapatalk did not grab the whole quote.

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LordMortis wrote:

Remus West wrote:

LordMortis wrote:

Daybreak will not occur before Friday, May 17 at 6am Eastern.

Unagi's not dead yet?

How am I supposed to accuse chaosraven until you publish that Unagi is dead?

I thought we had agreed that you were going to accuse me to throw off suspicion of you after my inevitable lynching and I was going to accuse bb2112 because it would be funny if I could get him lynched before me. Now I'm confused.

I agree to no such thing. I'm sticking to the plan. Unagi's first.

Whole quote. A lot of interaction with unagi and LM first few pages.

I'm going to stop here until I can get on the Pc.

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