Octopus Overlords

Harris has scored $200M and enlisted 170,000 new volunteers. The honeymoon won't last, but it's sure nice to have momentum on our side for the moment.

Kraken wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 10:33 pm Harris has scored $200M and enlisted 170,000 new volunteers. The honeymoon won't last, but it's sure nice to have momentum on our side for the moment.

But here's the thing - it doesn't need to be sustained for 2+ years. It needs to build for 100 more days. That feels...possible.

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 10:44 pm

Kraken wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 10:33 pm Harris has scored $200M and enlisted 170,000 new volunteers. The honeymoon won't last, but it's sure nice to have momentum on our side for the moment.

But here's the thing - it doesn't need to be sustained for 2+ years. It needs to build for 100 more days. That feels...possible.

This is what gives me hope. The excitement is still strong and when she announces her VP choice she’ll probably gain more momentum and when things settle you’re then into the convention and that’s going to be wild. Then if Trump doesn’t wimp out there’s a debate and I can’t wait for that.

$iljanus wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:11 am

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 10:44 pm

Kraken wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 10:33 pm Harris has scored $200M and enlisted 170,000 new volunteers. The honeymoon won't last, but it's sure nice to have momentum on our side for the moment.

But here's the thing - it doesn't need to be sustained for 2+ years. It needs to build for 100 more days. That feels...possible.

This is what gives me hope. The excitement is still strong and when she announces her VP choice she’ll probably gain more momentum and when things settle you’re then into the convention and that’s going to be wild. Then if Trump doesn’t wimp out there’s a debate and I can’t wait for that.

I put the odds of a wimp out at 10 - 1.

$iljanus wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:11 am

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 10:44 pm

Kraken wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 10:33 pm Harris has scored $200M and enlisted 170,000 new volunteers. The honeymoon won't last, but it's sure nice to have momentum on our side for the moment.

But here's the thing - it doesn't need to be sustained for 2+ years. It needs to build for 100 more days. That feels...possible.

This is what gives me hope. The excitement is still strong and when she announces her VP choice she’ll probably gain more momentum and when things settle you’re then into the convention and that’s going to be wild. Then if Trump doesn’t wimp out there’s a debate and I can’t wait for that.

It all depends on how much of this excitement moves the 100,000-ish people in 3 or 4 states that matter. I'm confident about winning the popular vote but that don't mean jack.

They are going to use whatever tricks they can at the local state and federal court level to win including using the Supreme Court.

I think there are several reasons to remain optimistic, based on recent history:

- Since 2020, elections have trended blue. 2022 midterms, special elections, etc.
- Elections with abortion on the ballot have driven high voter turnout in favor of abortion rights
- Nearly every election Trump has touched has resulted in a rejection of Trumpism - he's been a consistent loser since 2020
- If you believe in the 13 keys to the White House, Harris is currently predicted to win

None of these are guarantees, of course, but from an objective perspective I think you'd rather be in Harris' position than Trump's.

YellowKing wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:58 am I think there are several reasons to remain optimistic, based on recent history:

- Since 2020, elections have trended blue. 2022 midterms, special elections, etc.
- Elections with abortion on the ballot have driven high voter turnout in favor of abortion rights
- Nearly every election Trump has touched has resulted in a rejection of Trumpism - he's been a consistent loser since 2020
- If you believe in the 13 keys to the White House, Harris is currently predicted to win

None of these are guarantees, of course, but from an objective perspective I think you'd rather be in Harris' position than Trump's.

I also think the polls are off. For the past 8 years polls have been consistently wrong when it comes to Trump and his picks. He has constantly under performed compared to what the polls show. So if it truly is a tie in the polling then I would give the edge to Harris. Still it doesn't really matter if she wins by 7% if she still loses the Electoral College.

One prime example of bad poling is the June special congressional election in Ohio. The previous Republican won by 29% in the last election. In the special election his replacement Republican only won by 10% in what is known as an extremely conservative district. He was polling at 20% ahead. Low voter turn out may explain some of the difference, but that's still a 10% difference in the polling and the actual vote. It's also difficult to explain why he received 19% less of the vote compared to the prior Republican.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 9:25 am Musk out there reposting deep fakes. Any remaining doubt about why he bought Twitter?

Elon Musk Shares Manipulated Harris Video, in Seeming Violation of X’s Policies

The billionaire owner of the social media platform X reposted a video that mimics Vice President Kamala Harris’s voice, without disclosing that it had been altered.

What does this say about his own AI development and supposed commitment to doing it right and is it a reflection on those willing to work for someone who does this in that very field?

LordMortis wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 8:41 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun Jul 28, 2024 9:25 am Musk out there reposting deep fakes. Any remaining doubt about why he bought Twitter?

Elon Musk Shares Manipulated Harris Video, in Seeming Violation of X’s Policies

The billionaire owner of the social media platform X reposted a video that mimics Vice President Kamala Harris’s voice, without disclosing that it had been altered.

What does this say about his own AI development and supposed commitment to doing it right and is it a reflection on those willing to work for someone who does this in that very field?

Another example from yesterday.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/stat ... 9928084680

Now it's parody.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1817775398047937009

Scraper wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 8:15 am

YellowKing wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:58 am I think there are several reasons to remain optimistic, based on recent history:

- Since 2020, elections have trended blue. 2022 midterms, special elections, etc.
- Elections with abortion on the ballot have driven high voter turnout in favor of abortion rights
- Nearly every election Trump has touched has resulted in a rejection of Trumpism - he's been a consistent loser since 2020
- If you believe in the 13 keys to the White House, Harris is currently predicted to win

None of these are guarantees, of course, but from an objective perspective I think you'd rather be in Harris' position than Trump's.

I also think the polls are off. For the past 8 years polls have been consistently wrong when it comes to Trump and his picks. He has constantly under performed compared to what the polls show. So if it truly is a tie in the polling then I would give the edge to Harris. Still it doesn't really matter if she wins by 7% if she still loses the Electoral College.

One prime example of bad poling is the June special congressional election in Ohio. The previous Republican won by 29% in the last election. In the special election his replacement Republican only won by 10% in what is known as an extremely conservative district. He was polling at 20% ahead. Low voter turn out may explain some of the difference, but that's still a 10% difference in the polling and the actual vote. It's also difficult to explain why he received 19% less of the vote compared to the prior Republican.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but Trump himself over-performed polls in both 2016 and 2020. IIRC in 2016 the final polling average had Clinton ahead by something like 3%ish, and ultimately she won the popular vote by something like 1% or so (obviously losing the electoral college thanks to the wisdom of our founders). In 2020 Biden was ahead in the final polling average by like 4% - 5%ish, and Trump again beat the polling average by 2% or so (though not enough to win the electoral college, of course).

It is, however, true that Democrats have generally outperformed polls in the last few years in elections in which Trump is not himself a candidate. It's also true that abortion seems to be an electoral winner for the Democrats. But there's a decent case to be made that Trump himself draws out a decent number of devoted followers who are hard for pollsters to reach (but who don't seem to come out for non-Trump GOP candidates).

Of course, we're talking small sample sizes here, and this will be the first post-Roe overturning in which Trump is a candidate. But all the same, decent chance that polls may understate Trump's vote again.

LawBeefaroni wrote:Now it's parody.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1817775398047937009

Spoiler:

I checked with renowned world authority, Professor Suggon Deeznutz, and he said parody is legal in America

Parody is absolutely legal, but that doesn't mean that it is not also a clear violation of his own company's code of conduct. Maybe someone should remind him that 'legal' and 'permitted on X' are not the same thing.

Isgrimnur wrote: Sat Jul 27, 2024 12:30 pm WHITE DUDES FOR HARRIS CALL SIGN-UP FORM

https://twitter.com/harris_wins/status/ ... 0014234976

BREAKING: Registrations for White dudes for Kamala have now surpassed 75,000. The energy surrounding this campaign is unheard of.

Somehow Vegas odds are still favoring DonOld in the election. Do they know something we don't? If I were a betting man I would take some odds on Harris right now.

Trump still leads Harris in most polls, even if it's within the margin of error. And considering he's led Biden pretty much the entire race, I think it's going to take some clear trends to reverse the betting averages. They have tightened considerably, however, since Biden dropped out.

Jaymann wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:04 pm Somehow Vegas odds are still favoring DonOld in the election. Do they know something we don't? If I were a betting man I would take some odds on Harris right now.

Do they forget that nearly every candidate DonOld backed in 2022 failed miserably. IMO the polls don't reach critical voters or reflect the historical surge in voter registration in support of Harris. Also, even Fox news has polls showing she has eclipsed DonOld in approval ratings in battleground states.

YellowKing wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:17 pm Trump still leads Harris in most polls, even if it's within the margin of error. And considering he's led Biden pretty much the entire race, I think it's going to take some clear trends to reverse the betting averages. They have tightened considerably, however, since Biden dropped out.

Depends on the poll and what you look at but I've seen a recent poll conducted by Fox News that shows them tied in Pennsylvania and Michgan, with Trump ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin. That same poll shows Harris is viewed significantly more favorably than Trump in MI and PA. This is significantly better than I ever hoped and is a good sign. Trump has been campaigning since 2016 while Harris has only been at it for a week. Then there's the fact that the only thing MAGA and Fox can come up with is DEI hire and JD Vance adding nothing but bad press with him stumbling at ever opportunity and Trump still spending half his time attacking Biden it not only gives be hope but is very entertaining watching Maga implode (at least for now).

I think she's going to move into a definitive lead the closer we get to the election. People still aren't fully paying attention, and her campaign really hasn't even begun yet. The fact that she's managed to close the gap with Trump without really doing much of anything yet bodes really well.

YellowKing wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 3:17 pm I think she's going to move into a definitive lead the closer we get to the election. People still aren't fully paying attention, and her campaign really hasn't even begun yet. The fact that she's managed to close the gap with Trump without really doing much of anything yet bodes really well.

Yeah, Harris is still building momentum, whereas trump hit his ceiling long ago. She'll get a bump when she names her running mate, and another boost from the convention, and those should catapult her into full-on campaign mode. Whether she can reach the right people in the states that matter is anybody's guess, but the trend is encouraging.

Let’s not forget Biden saying presidents shouldn’t be immune should be a constitutional amendment and the Supreme Court should have term limits is also going to play very very well with most proper thinking people.

So for trump is screaming about it being unconstitutional to have a constitutional amendment and the republicans saying the Supreme Court is fine the way it is which doesn’t even need attack ads to show how dumb the arguments are.

The other thing is that the new Maga focus is the “family” .

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tical-turn

The article itself exposes what Maga wants to do far better than I can.


There really does seem a concerted effort in many nations now to roll back women’s rights. China is also looking at forcing women to have 3 kids.

Jaymann wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2024 10:08 am The convention will be before September 10. Can't wait for the next excuse.

Especially now that she's confirmed she'll be there:

Vice President Harris’s campaign is doubling down on its attacks against former President Trump, accusing him of backtracking on the next presidential debate.

Campaign communications director Michael Tyler said, in a statement first shared with The Hill, that Harris will be at ABC’s Sept. 10 debate — to which Trump and President Biden had both previously agreed — regardless of the former president’s attendance.

“As Vice President Harris said last week, the American people deserve to hear from the two candidates running for the highest office in the land and she will do that at September’s ABC debate,” Tyler said. “If Donald Trump and his team are saying anything other than ‘we’ll see you there,’ — and it appears that they are — it’s a convenient, but expected backtrack from Team Trump. Vice President Harris will be there on September 10th — we’ll see if Trump shows.”

Weren’t they just bitching about equal time?

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 5:06 pm Let’s not forget Biden saying presidents shouldn’t be immune should be a constitutional amendment and the Supreme Court should have term limits is also going to play very very well with most proper thinking people.

So for trump is screaming about it being unconstitutional to have a constitutional amendment and the republicans saying the Supreme Court is fine the way it is which doesn’t even need attack ads to show how dumb the arguments are.

The other thing is that the new Maga focus is the “family” .

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tical-turn

The article itself exposes what Maga wants to do far better than I can.


There really does seem a concerted effort in many nations now to roll back women’s rights. China is also looking at forcing women to have 3 kids.

LOL, what happened to one child limit per family?

Jaymann wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 1:04 pm Somehow Vegas odds are still favoring DonOld in the election. Do they know something we don't? If I were a betting man I would take some odds on Harris right now.

They're not always consistent or even predictive. Probably due to money flow.

Bovada has Trump as the favorite candidate but Dems electoral/pop sweep is the favorite outcome.


https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics/u ... ction-2024

US Presidential Election 2024 Winner
Donald Trump Sr.-165
Kamala Harris+130

Winning Party
Republican-165
Democratic+125

Popular Vote Winner
Kamala Harris-180
Donald Trump+135

Presidency/Pop Vote Winners
Republican Presidency & Republican Popular Vote+215
Democrat Presidency & Democrat Popular Vote+125
Republican Presidency & Democrat Popular Vote+210
Democrat Presidency & Republican Popular Vote+4000

Will JD Vance be replaced as Republican VP nominee? (by 8/31)
Yes+600
No-1200

Jaymann wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 6:05 pm

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 5:06 pm There really does seem a concerted effort in many nations now to roll back women’s rights. China is also looking at forcing women to have 3 kids.

LOL, what happened to one child limit per family?

It's kind of funny that the "creepy, weird" attacks on the GOP are taking off, as I've been using that as an argument for a long time in regard to their obsession over sexuality and what goes on in people's bedrooms. About time a campaign called it out for what it is. Because it IS creepy.

Much of the world faces a demographic crisis because women aren’t having enough children. Largely because raising a child, housing and education is so expensive. Maga blames womens choice of abortion AND birth control and the “great replacement” pseudo theory of course.

China chose to restrict births to control its huge population but now has a massive demographic crisis in the making that will end its economic growth. Like maga they don’t want immigration so will instead force women to have kids. Just like maga wants to do

One for mom, one for dad and one for the country is still a thing sadly.

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:05 pm Much of the [RICH] world faces a[N IMAGINED] demographic crisis because women aren’t having enough children [OF THE APPROPRIATE SKIN COLOR].

FTFY

The planet has enough people, and increasing birthrates will only lead to further crises of resources and climate stress. Climate stability will require policies that allow economically weak areas of the world to benefit from lower birthrates (while enjoying the benefits of technology) as well.

BTW, Elon Musk recently posted that anyone calling for lower birthrates is an "extinctionist" who wishes a "holocaust" on humanity.

Right-wingers are weird.

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:05 pm Much of the world faces a demographic crisis because women aren’t having enough children. Largely because raising a child, housing and education is so expensive. Maga blames womens choice of abortion AND birth control and the “great replacement” pseudo theory of course.

China chose to restrict births to control its huge population but now has a massive demographic crisis in the making that will end its economic growth. Like maga they don’t want immigration so will instead force women to have kids. Just like maga wants to do

One for mom, one for dad and one for the country is still a thing sadly.

Actually China still tries to restrict birth but at 3 children instead of 1 or 2 but some region now allow people to have unlimited children. They're not forcing women to have kids. So MAGA isn't the same as China.

BTW, abortion is legal in China.

Now. But leaked documents indicate this is about to change significantly as well with party membership and government employment being dependent on having a three kid houselhold.

Holman wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:12 pm

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:05 pm Much of the [RICH] world faces a[N IMAGINED] demographic crisis because women aren’t having enough children [OF THE APPROPRIATE SKIN COLOR].

FTFY

The planet has enough people, and increasing birthrates will only lead to further crises of resources and climate stress. Climate stability will require policies that allow economically weak areas of the world to benefit from lower birthrates (while enjoying the benefits of technology) as well.

BTW, Elon Musk recently posted that anyone calling for lower birthrates is an "extinctionist" who wishes a "holocaust" on humanity.

Right-wingers are weird.

Japan and South Korea also face major demographic issues. But for maga yes you are right their view is that there are citizens of the United States who are not real Americans.

Vance’s theory that fathers should control their children’s votes is truly chilling because not only would that mean a true patriarchy that would mean to make that work the secret ballot would also have to be eliminated.

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:30 pm Now. But leaked documents indicate this is about to change significantly as well with party membership and government employment being dependent on having a three kid houselhold.

Even if that is implemented, it is still far from force women to have kids. Majority of Chinese people don't work for the government.

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 7:35 pm Japan and South Korea also face major demographic issues.

Those issues are "major" because they don't want non-Japanese and non-SKorean babies/immigrants to fill the available slots.

My point is around the world we are seeing a major push for the erosion of women’s rights. Which should alarm anyone with a daughter.

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 9:03 pm My point is around the world we are seeing a major push for the erosion of women’s rights. Which should alarm anyone with a daughter.

Or anyone who believes in decency.

I only know 3 of her might be running mate. Kelly, Whitmer and Buttigieg. I like those 3 with i think Kelly being best but i really like Buttigieg too.

Way to bring attention to the cause