Octopus Overlords

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/02/28/the ... says-.html

Early economic data for the first quarter of 2025 is pointing towards negative growth, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta measure.

The central bank's GDPNow tracker of incoming metrics is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5% for the January-through-March period, according to an update posted Friday morning.

This tracks with my portfolio which is dropped below the day 1 election bump from last November, which has been stagnant to a very slow hemorrhage since then. Forward looking, I can't see it getting anything but worse for the time being, as I grow heavier in cash equivalents mostly at at 4%ish which also seem to be losing to the return of inflation at this point. Winning!

My guess is this will lead to rate slashing, this GOP Administration loved so much when they were in power the first time, to help all private equity and their hold on banking and do little for everyone else except megacorps and their short term borrowing rates.

You know things are going fine when they're already working on just how to cook the books.

The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that government spending could be separated from gross domestic product reports in response to questions about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency could possibly cause an economic downturn.

“You know, that governments historically have messed with GDP,” Lutnick said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “They count government spending as part of GDP. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”

Doing so could potentially complicate or distort a fundamental measure of the U.S. economy’s health. Government spending is traditionally included in the GDP because changes in taxes, spending, deficits and regulations by the government can impact the path of overall growth. GDP reports already include extensive details on government spending, offering a level of transparency for economists.

Musk’s efforts to downsize federal agencies could result in the layoffs of tens of thousands of federal workers, whose lost income could potentially reduce their spending, affecting businesses and the economy at large.

Apparently tariffs on "external" farm products starting April 2nd.

https://Twitter.com/atlantafed/status/1 ... iSH7b3rfqQ

Now down to -2.8% GDP projected for the first quarter.

Hope you don't like tomatoes, avocados, bananas, grapes, or berries, because they're about to explode in price. And just wait until you want bananas or tomatoes off-season!

Oh, and I hope you all like soybeans and corn.

How dare you not be willing to make sacrifices for the ego of the king?

Now the tariffs have been confirmed the crypto and share markets are crashing in real time. All the crypto bumps from the other

I’ve easily lost 75k in retirement and investments thanks to trump setting new back a few years before I can retire. If I can keep my job .

But others I know have lost contracts or even their jobs. Others have businesses at risk.

Seriously screw Trump voters.

Don't you guys get most of your potash for fertilizer from Canada? That's about to get more expensive for the farmers

Yes, and growing season is just beginning. But who needs potash when Brawndo helps crops grow.

IceBear wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 4:36 pm Don't you guys get most of your potash for fertilizer from Canada? That's about to get more expensive for the farmers

This is definitely making the rounds. I can't speak for the truth of it, but it sure sounds nice.

Ah, just saw it's confirmed...25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico at midnight with nothing that can be done to stop them

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 4:27 pm Now the tariffs have been confirmed the crypto and share markets are crashing in real time.

Maybe his intention was to create the dip.

IceBear wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 4:36 pm Don't you guys get most of your potash for fertilizer from Canada? That's about to get more expensive for the farmers

You mean now that we're not not getting it from wartorn Ukraine? Well, up until today, yes.

Alefroth wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 5:03 pm

waitingtoconnect wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 4:27 pm Now the tariffs have been confirmed the crypto and share markets are crashing in real time.

Maybe his intention was to create the dip.

I can't imagine his intention was was to get others to kiss the ring but the GOP administration around him are profiting from the rise and fall by whispers and knowing the fix before it happens. Thrall Master Thiel has made a career of it. Just ask SVB and the regional banks. Robber Barons gonna Robber Baron and build more power. And when they control all three phases of federal government?




I guess it wasn't a Friday after close announcement though. I guess the market was on to that shit.

If only there was some way to use foreknowledge to make money on a stock market going down, but alas.

GreenGoo wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 8:09 pm If only there was some way to use foreknowledge to make money on a stock market going down, but alas.

I can't tell if I'm missing a joke, but that's what short selling is.

So beginning last week I see the talking point from the left with "Austerity always brings recession." Isn't this being called austerity giving this GOP administration too much credit? The only tax reduction is going to the global elite. There is no deficit reduction, not even a deficit expansion slow down. And spending reduction looks to really be just diverting spending to the private equity support that bought federal government.

wonderpug wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 9:50 pm I can't tell if I'm missing a joke, but that's what short selling is.

Alas.

What I find infuriating is that Trump hasn't really outlined specifically what he wants from Mexico and Canada when it comes to this tariff spat. He just says "stop drugs" or "stop illegal crossings" but doesn't tell them what that entails in his eyes. Negotiating with a child would be more productive.

hepcat wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 12:19 pm What I find infuriating is that Trump hasn't really outlined specifically what he wants from Mexico and Canada when it comes to this tariff spat. He just says "stop drugs" or "stop illegal crossings" but doesn't tell them what that entails in his eyes. Negotiating with a child would be more productive.

I was just discussing this concept with my wife, and I referenced Icebear specifically, because in his (icebear's) panic he was looking for ways to deal with the issues drumpf identifies as the "problem".

You and I know that these are just the bare minimum of "plausible justifications", and if they are dealt with, the goal posts will just move. You can't deal with drumpf in a straight forward manner because he's not working in good faith. Like, never, ever.

So what is motivating drumpf in this case? My opinions are just that, opinions. At a guess, I think he believes this is what powerful people do. He's been a bully his whole life, and now he has the most power he's ever held, and he's going to run with it. First thing's first, he wants everyone to know he's in charge. Of America, of North America, of the western world. This is the only way he knows how to do that. Hurt people until they acknowledge his superiority. His meeting with Zelenskyy had elements of this behaviour.

So he's going to hurt people until he gets the kowtowing he demands. We've seen it during the 2016 campaign, when targets of his attacks vocalized support in public for him and he turned around completely, talking about what a great and worthwhile person his former target is.

So I believe this is just about his ego. Nothing more, nothing less. Acknowledge my superiority or I will hurt you. Or more like, I will hurt you until you acknowledge my superiority. That it hurts Americans doesn't even enter into it, except so far as he needs to avoid a revolution. He'll cause the deaths of Americans all day long, let alone suffering. It's not about the people, allies or not. It's about him. It's always been about him. He HATES being laughed at.

How do you deal with a maniacal, egotistical, delusional authoritarian at the helm of the largest economy and military in the world? Good question. I think drumpf can be broken completely, but it will involve more pain going forward, for everyone. I personally am willing to accept a LOT of pain to make it happen, but not everyone is, or is in a situation to be able to do so.

If previous outcomes are any indication, drumpf will be out maneuvered by smarter people into a compromise, he'll declare victory, MAGA will go nuts, and he'll find new targets. He won't end until he's gone. He's been doing this for decades, this is just the best opportunity he's had to do it to the most people. This is his "legacy". "I'm better than you! Admit it!!!".

lol.

tl;dr

Tell him he's amazing. Him personally. Not because he's the president, but because he's drumpf. Do it in public, repeatedly.

That's a HUGE first step in stopping his nonsense.

He just needs to look in the mirror and ask who's the fairest of them all.

So this is going to get ugly. He's going to increase the tariffs to match our tariffs. What does he expect us to do? Lie there and take it? We're not Vance in your bedroom Trump

Enough wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 3:59 pm Apparently tariffs on "external" farm products starting April 2nd.

China hit back on the US agricultural imports to the mainland....
Less demand for US agricultural products being exported to China will for sure win over the farmers who voted for him....

More subsidies incoming for your farmers will be great for your economy again.
What an asshat.

hepcat wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 12:19 pm What I find infuriating is that Trump hasn't really outlined specifically what he wants from Mexico and Canada when it comes to this tariff spat. He just says "stop drugs" or "stop illegal crossings" but doesn't tell them what that entails in his eyes. Negotiating with a child would be more productive.

The asshat wants us (Canada) to stop the flow of fentanyl (equates to less than %1) and illegals coming South.
Where was he when this was happening? https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/ca ... -1.7329983

Didn't he also sign an amazing trade deal with us and Mexico back in his 1st term?

Roman wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 5:30 pm Less demand for US agricultural products being exported to China will for sure win over the farmers who voted for him....

What do the GOP care? He already reneged on the moneys from infrastructure bill. He's already had Leon work to cut back the people they rely on for support. He's already increased the cost/decreased the access for their inputs. He's already started after immigrant agricultural labor both with fear tactics and by demonstration of force. In his last term, he already encouraged foreign supply chains to begin looking for resiliency in South America. They're so past lip service to the electorate. "They voted this one time. They'll never have to vote again."

IceBear wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 4:40 pm So this is going to get ugly.

What?! This is the first I'm hearing of this.

I don't mean to pick on you Icebear, and I do apologize, but watching this play out hour by hour is not going to do either of us any good. It's going to play out over days, weeks and possibly months. Both sides will hurt each other until one side gives in. Drumpf is sure it will be us. And he might be right. He's got the bigger economy and can wield it like a giant club.

But one advantage we have is that the American people don't have any stake in "winning" this trade war. They don't want it and don't understand it. If we can make drumpf hurt Americans more than they are willing to be hurt, economically, and we may have a chance. But we can't do it if we're not willing to suffer ourselves. If we let a foreign country dictate rather than negotiate, we might as well become the 51st state.

So it's going to hurt. Canadians. Americans. We have our economic sovereignty at stake. What do Americans have? Perverse pleasure at watching drumpf blow up the economies of 2 allied countries because MAGA? I don't think that is enough. But maybe it is.

In the meantime, strap in, pay attention, work on your resilience, and fight the good fight, even if only in your head.

Interesting to see VT (Vanguard Total World ETF) go up when both VTI (Vanguard Total US Market) and SPY (S&P top 500 in US based on sector) are going down.

Over the previous five years (aka during the Biden presidency), VT has only been up 20% while VTI is up 110% and SPY is up 115%. (This does not take into account the VT has a much larger dividend)

Roman wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 5:30 pm More subsidies incoming for your farmers will be great for your economy again.
What an asshat.

There won't be any subsidies until all the family farms are bankrupted and sold to conglomerates. That seems to be the plan, and seems to already be working, as many family farmers have been going "wtf" on social media as the US government has reneged on farming contracts all over the country, causing these farmers to miss payments with their banks already, as money they were counting on has been yoinked by drumpf.

On the plus side, that's good for Canadians in the short term, and is sure to help shrink the US GDP. He truly is a stable genius.

A glimmer of hope?

Trump could meet Canada, Mexico ‘in the middle’, U.S. Commerce Secretary says. Live trade war updates here

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps-tar ... ates-here/

GreenGoo wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 5:52 pm But one advantage we have is that the American people don't have any stake in "winning" this trade war. They don't want it and don't understand it. If we can make drumpf hurt Americans more than they are willing to be hurt, economically, and we may have a chance. But we can't do it if we're not willing to suffer ourselves. If we let a foreign country dictate rather than negotiate, we might as well become the 51st state.

So it's going to hurt. Canadians. Americans. We have our economic sovereignty at stake. What do Americans have? Perverse pleasure at watching drumpf blow up the economies of 2 allied countries because MAGA? I don't think that is enough. But maybe it is.

In the meantime, strap in, pay attention, work on your resilience, and fight the good fight, even if only in your head.

In the long term, you'll have more options than we will. You're in a trade war with us. You'll be able to (super tough, big inconvenience) shift your trade elsewhere. We're in a trade war with everyone. We'll be stuck collapsing inward with nowhere to turn. Canada, Mexico, and China can get by without us. We're going to be on our own.

Good. This is a lesson that Americans, in our self-righteous complacency, need to learn.

Saw the message from Trudeau; it was on X so I'll look for it elsewhere, but it was certainly appreciated. Must be nice to have a leader that's not a total moron.

EDIT: Here we go

So just days after the GOP Administration announces it is stopping its cybersecurity "offensive" against Russia I am getting pushed priority notifications from Schwab (first time ever) related to protecting myself due to increased activity and sophistication related investment fraud.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 8:15 pm Saw the message from Trudeau; it was on X so I'll look for it elsewhere, but it was certainly appreciated. Must be nice to have a leader that's not a total moron.

Saw those yesterday and also appreciated Trudeau.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 8:15 pm Must be nice to have a leader that's not a total moron.

You'd think so, but for some reason he's so unpopular that he was forced to announce his resignation, and now he's just a caretaker while the Liberals elect a new leader. If the federal election was held today, we'd have our own total moron running the country tomorrow.

Max Peck wrote: Wed Mar 05, 2025 10:44 am

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 8:15 pm Must be nice to have a leader that's not a total moron.

You'd think so, but for some reason he's so unpopular that he was forced to announce his resignation, and now he's just a caretaker while the Liberals elect a new leader. If the federal election was held today, we'd have our own total moron running the country tomorrow.

This.

IceBear wrote: Tue Mar 04, 2025 4:40 pm So this is going to get ugly. He's going to increase the tariffs to match our tariffs. What does he expect us to do? Lie there and take it? We're not Vance in your bedroom Trump

It's my opinion that the economy probably has to get worse before it gets better. If it takes economic pain for Americans to wake up to the reality of what they're facing, then I'll happily take some economic pain of our own. If we make them feel the pinch, it won't last indefinitely. The ironic thing in all this is that it didn't need to happen, but thanks to Trump, he's burning economic bridges.

Auto tariffs just paused for one month. I'm sure more pauses will be forthcoming.

stessier wrote: Wed Mar 05, 2025 2:55 pm Auto tariffs just paused for one month. I'm sure more pauses will be forthcoming.

Both drumpf and the economy loves fear and the unknown. Winning combination. But seriously, drumpf loves this. "Will I? Won't I?" "Feel my powah!"

As Stessier points out, there are going to be some tariffs paused, some reinstated, some lowered, some raised, with no factual or economic science behind it. It's all drumpf's whim and he loves it. I wouldn't let this guy manage the budget at a volunteer potluck.

Infuriating, but not surprising.