Octopus Overlords

IceBear wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 1:14 pm Well all his minions are on the news saying there won't be a recession and that after the markets bottom out they are going to boom like never before.

The CAC and FWB and the Hang Seng and the other markets will probably get the hockey stick.

US markets will.be in a worse position ALD than BLD. They may bounce back bit the ceiling is lowered . At the very least, trust in US markets has been eroded and other nations are exploring replacements.

If Monday is another Black Monday, we'll know. If it's flat, up, or just down a bit, we're still in wait and wonder mode.

Drazzil wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 1:20 pm I really don't think you guys are getting how bad this could get.

Why do you say that?

Lutnick is trying to say the reason for tariffs on uninhabited islands is so other countries can't use them as a loophole. I guess it's okay if they do that through Russia though.

Alefroth wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 5:09 pm Lutnick is trying to say the reason for tariffs on uninhabited islands is so other countries can't use them as a loophole. I guess it's okay if they do that through Russia though.

With all the existing infrastructure there to ship from? Well, shows what their devious minds are thinking

IceBear wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 5:26 pm

Alefroth wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 5:09 pm Lutnick is trying to say the reason for tariffs on uninhabited islands is so other countries can't use them as a loophole. I guess it's okay if they do that through Russia though.

With all the existing infrastructure there to ship from? Well, shows what their devious minds are thinking

Penguins are crafty creatures. For all we know they’ve built a secret shipping port and airport in anticipation of such a moment.

Plus, if China with a 34% tariff wanted, shipping from anywhere with a 10% tariff is still better.

Pre-market trading shows the US markets down another 3-4% at opening.

I had money that I have sitting in a high interest account that I was going to start funneling into stock market. Seems like leaving it in the high interest account is a hell of a lot safer at least for the short term. Do you really think we could go another week of the market tanking before people start pretending that there's a plan and try and undo it? We have now wiped out like 14 months of gains in the span of 2-3 days. I am going to flying punch anyone that says that gas prices are going down. Because well the oil market is crashing so it probably will.

The market is pricing in the destruction of the global economy for US markets. For an administration claiming to focus on “efficiency,” the tariffs are only going to increase inefficiency by penalizing supply chains. Even if you manufacture in the U.S., parts are sourced from overseas. Expect the Trump Slump (Crash) to affect EVERYTHING.

At least the Trump administration is owning the tariffs as “medicine” and “nothing.” When we all see higher costs for coffee and toilet paper, the American public is breaking out the pitchforks. A smart Democratic Party would be laying the foundation for a policy revolution when elections come. You can’t flood the zone against pocketbook issues.

WYBaugh wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 1:57 pm Since 4/3 I've lost 60K. I'm hoping to retire this year so this bullshit isn't going to fly. Way to make america "great again" fucktard

We're down ~$40k so far, and we, too, want to retire this year. We moved 2/3 of our retirement money into an annuity a couple of years ago, so that's safe, but the 1/3 that's slipping away now is supposed to be the spendable part.

This GOP administration is talking about providing relief to farmers, you know after they pulled all the rug out from them already once by not honoring infrastructure rebuild obligations not a couple of week ago. Glad that things are so much better already.

Octavious wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:14 pm I had money that I have sitting in a high interest account that I was going to start funneling into stock market. Seems like leaving it in the high interest account is a hell of a lot safer at least for the short term. Do you really think we could go another week of the market tanking before people start pretending that there's a plan and try and undo it? We have now wiped out like 14 months of gains in the span of 2-3 days. I am going to flying punch anyone that says that gas prices are going down. Because well the oil market is crashing so it probably will.

Saudis did that. Was it in coordination with the GOP? Probably. Does that mean this GOP administration are the good guys for keeping prices higher until they could act as if they are an authoritarian regime based on the myth of mandate?

Kraken wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:53 pm We're down ~$40k so far, and we, too, want to retire this year.

Day Change
-$95,883.51 (-8.07%)
1-Month Change
-$167,452.58 (-13.29%)

"fortunately" the vast majority of that is money I can't begin to touch for another five years.

Kraken wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:53 pm We're down ~$40k so far, and we, too, want to retire this year.

I'm not good at math, so what was your starting balance before the $40k lose?

stimpy wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 7:27 am

Kraken wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:53 pm We're down ~$40k so far, and we, too, want to retire this year.

I'm not good at math, so what was your starting balance before the $40k lose?

Divide the loss by the percent drop expressed as a decimal. So if the drop was 8%, then 40,000/0.08 = $500,000.

Navarro on CNBC expecting to find a friendly propaganda and spent the entire segment defending himself and raising his voice with "LET ME FINISH. LET ME FINISH." to talk about how tariffs are tax break paid for by foreign countries with unfair pricing and how they will raise wages and how they will cut prices and how they will lead to a higher market and how the bottom will come soon and how you should stay invested and how they will get negotiations from other countries and they will fix manufacturing and how Leon's criticisms are ignorant because he's not an economist, he's auto manufacturer. Wow. Just wow. At least CNBC are no longer playing sycophant. No idea if that changed before last Wednesday or what the catalyst might have been.

msduncan wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 1:21 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Apr 06, 2025 12:48 pm

LordMortis wrote: It also took years for markets to bounce back from 2008. Though if you were contributing in those intervening years those contributions were at good discount.

My account was above Sep 2008 levels by August of 2009 (11 months). Part of that was because I got very defensive in Jan of 2008 when it was clear that the election cycle was going to talk down the economy for 11 months, and I reversed that course in April of 2009.

I also did the same thing on Jan 20 of this year, exiting all stock positions.

At this moment I'm looking like a genius for giving my ex wife a big chunk of my 401k in exchange for keeping 100% of my pension.

She cashed it out and invested it all in Miatas - Once Japanese tariffs kick in she can retire on that sh*t.

Huge market turnaround on Trump saying he may pause tariffs for 90 days (except China).

1000+ point swing on the DOW.

And now swinging back to the negative side on reports the 90-days is fake news. Someone is making a lot of money on these swings.

Yep, back to -800 points on the DOW. Now they know a way to bounce markets.

LawBeefaroni wrote:Huge market turnaround on Trump saying he may pause tariffs for 90 days (except China).

1000+ point swing on the DOW.

IMHO, the long term damage is done. Money, and so much of the world economy, is pretty much built on trust and a stable and trustworthy environment.

As we've seen, under Trump, the economic policy environment is anything but stable and trustworthy.

Good news everyone.



I think that's a 104% total tariff on China. Good thing we don't rely on anything from them to keep our daily existence humming along or that would likely be crippling to our economy!

Ok, the China escalation must be why my board meeting tomorrow morning was suddenly cancelled. Serious people are taking this very seriously, and dropping prior commitments and travel to deal with the fallout.

The account that shared that is in a different time zone (he didn't post that before the NYSE opened); it was shared at 11:14 am EST.

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:15 pm The account that shared that is in a different time zone (he didn't post that before the NYSE opened); it was shared at 11:14 am EST.

It's obviously not him. It was obviously timed. And by now it ought be obvious that timed crashing of markets and destruction of supply stability is part of the point aka "the medicine that's made us all better."

LordMortis wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:18 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:15 pm The account that shared that is in a different time zone (he didn't post that before the NYSE opened); it was shared at 11:14 am EST.

It's obviously not him. It was obviously timed. And by now it ought be obvious that timed crashing of markets and destruction of supply stability is part of the point aka "the medicine that's made us all better."

Do you think there's a strategy? Seems like the truth is probably that Trump's an idiot who completely misunderstands tariffs and trade.

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:20 pm

LordMortis wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:18 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:15 pm The account that shared that is in a different time zone (he didn't post that before the NYSE opened); it was shared at 11:14 am EST.

It's obviously not him. It was obviously timed. And by now it ought be obvious that timed crashing of markets and destruction of supply stability is part of the point aka "the medicine that's made us all better."

Do you think there's a strategy? Seems like the truth is probably that Trump's an idiot who completely misunderstands tariffs and trade.

There is much wailing and gnashing of teeth in Mammon as the idiot they astroturfed in destroys their golden calf. Annnd I'm here for all of it.

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:20 pm

LordMortis wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:18 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:15 pm The account that shared that is in a different time zone (he didn't post that before the NYSE opened); it was shared at 11:14 am EST.

It's obviously not him. It was obviously timed. And by now it ought be obvious that timed crashing of markets and destruction of supply stability is part of the point aka "the medicine that's made us all better."

Do you think there's a strategy? Seems like the truth is probably that Trump's an idiot who completely misunderstands tariffs and trade.

He is and idiot which is not mutually exclusive from him being advised by Navaro and Thiel, as example who are all advancing their own agendas, and building their own equity and power while whispering in his ear.

edit first thing I could find but it's nothing new

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-AA1AFAAy

LordMortis wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:34 pm

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:20 pm

LordMortis wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:18 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:15 pm The account that shared that is in a different time zone (he didn't post that before the NYSE opened); it was shared at 11:14 am EST.

It's obviously not him. It was obviously timed. And by now it ought be obvious that timed crashing of markets and destruction of supply stability is part of the point aka "the medicine that's made us all better."

Do you think there's a strategy? Seems like the truth is probably that Trump's an idiot who completely misunderstands tariffs and trade.

He is and idiot which is not mutually exclusive from him being advised by Navaro and Thiel, as example who are all advancing their own agendas, and building their own equity and power while whispering in his ear.

edit first thing I could find but it's nothing new

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-AA1AFAAy

I do think that in addition to Trump being an idiot who doesn't understand any of this stuff, tariffs also have a personal upside for him in that rich people can them supplicate themselves to him to get exemptions from the tariffs, which both pleases his ego and creates enormous opportunities for graft.

FWIW I also agree that techno-libertarians are behind much of the Trump policies, but I don't see a tariff angle on that. I think that's mostly Trump himself and probably a couple non-tech people in his inner circle.

Saw a report that iPhones might rise to $3500 due to tariffs. Good thing I have an Android

msduncan wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:54 pm Saw a report that iPhones might rise to $3500 due to tariffs. Good thing I have an Android

It looks like buying a new android phone, a screaming fast computer and a top of the line oled may have been an intelligent investment. All my old stuff was falling apart anyway.

I do get some small pleasure from seeing supposedly informed people still at the start of the Trump learning curve here.

msduncan wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 12:54 pm Saw a report that iPhones might rise to $3500 due to tariffs. Good thing I have an Android

I’ve been meaning to upgrade my daughter’s iphone. Guess I need to get on that right away.

Why are most of your stock markets positive right now? Did I miss an announcement? Is it just because countries are lining up to kiss the ring?

IceBear wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 2:13 pm Why are most of your stock markets positive right now? Did I miss an announcement? Is it just because countries are lining up to kiss the ring?

They're more flat. They swung positive briefly on a mistaken/deceptive tweet (gotta love the $8 blue check mark) that Trump was considering a 90 day pause on tariffs. When the WH denied it, markets went back negative.

Now they're bouncing around even on "negotiation" news.

Ah, when I looked this morning around 10 everything was firmly negative, but then got busy and at the time I looked only one was negative...barely...so I was wondering if I had missed some major announcement or if it was just speculation on the negotiations

Fidelity's website kept crashing on me as I tried to rebalance my retirement funds today (yeah, I should have done it earlier...). On the good news side, they got me a phone number, and I was able to get through to dump 80% of my retirement stocks into a bond fund for now (I was 90% certain that I'd just be on hold until the markets closed). Ah well, despite the massive losses the past few days, I still had more money in my retirement fund than I had thought - now I just have to hope that Trump doesn't do to bonds what he does to his companies, and decide to just not pay.

Also, the markets have responded to Trump's tariffs worse than they did to September 11.

Trump 9/11'd the money,

The problem is, he'll take it as a sign of how powerful he is. Who else can make $11T of US equity value just disappear? He's Money God. Money Black Hole?

It shouldn't be surprising that there's been such a massive drop. These tariffs are blowing up the entire international economic order led by the U.S. since the end of World War II. I also suspect that part of this is the market starting to fully price in the effects of Trump's leadership, which it had been somewhat slow to do to date.