Octopus Overlords

I trust Nate Silver as far as I can throw him. Nothing in the trends leads me to believe Trump is the favorite in this race. Or maybe he's playing 4D chess to scare Dems into getting to the polls.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:39 pm Nate Silver has Trump favored to win now. Apparently he thinks it will all come down to Pennsylvania and Trump will pull it out.

Is 538 not Nate anymore, because 538 still has Harris winning 58 times out of a 100.

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:49 pm Is 538 not Nate anymore, because 538 still has Harris winning 58 times out of a 100.

Departed in 2023 after they realized he was a goddamn hack.

Ah ha. So what's his outlet now, Xitter?

Nate Silver . net | Silver Bulletin

And there is a legit Swifties for Harris group gaining momentum before or without Taylor's endorsement.

waitingtoconnect wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:19 pm Yes it says I will always love you…

He has a lot of experience with vowing to always love people.

Remember when he sat on stage and urged his following to get violent and that he'd pay their legal bills... So much love. Of course, so long as he doesn't have to pay for it, he'll happily free all of his criminally violent followers.

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 8:35 pm

Has nothing to do with their politics or behavior, but just look at the difference in physical beauty there. Again, doesn't matter at all, but the contrast is just...jarring. She is absolutely gorgeous. And you can tell it's in the genes because her sister is as well. They both look at least 10 years younger than their age, and both beautiful.

And remember that he told a crowd that he was better looking than she is.

While the focus remains on the battleground states, I still wonder whether certain non-battleground states will flip. It's happened before.

I think the polls, which can't predict turnout, are vastly underestimating the women/minority/youth vote that are going to turn out for her.

YellowKing wrote:I think the polls, which can't predict turnout, are vastly underestimating the women/minority/youth vote that are going to turn out for her.

I like the current of your jib and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

YellowKing wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 4:36 pm I think the polls, which can't predict turnout, are vastly underestimating the women/minority/youth vote that are going to turn out for her.

I have been hoping that the latter in particular are motivated enough by the younger option now, to really show up.

I need to ask my niece who works at a primarily black Fedex warehouse (weird phrasing...most of the workers there are black), if there has been any shift in the winds regarding that. She told me before the step-down that most of her black co-workers were planning to vote for Trump this time. It's my biggest, anecdotal evidence on how the minority vote is thinking.

I think one thing that supports my optimism is voter registration numbers. Big surges among women, minorities, and young voters. I'm not talking a couple of percentage points. I'm talking in some cases doubling 2020 numbers in the same demographics. And enthusiasm polls among Democrats are at levels not seen since 2008.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 6:39 pm I think one thing that supports my optimism is voter registration numbers. Big surges among women, minorities, and young voters. I'm not talking a couple of percentage points. I'm talking in some cases doubling 2020 numbers in the same demographics. And enthusiasm polls among Democrats are at levels not seen since 2008.

DO NOT GIVE ME FALSE HOPE DAMMIT!!

YellowKing wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 6:39 pm I think one thing that supports my optimism is voter registration numbers. Big surges among women, minorities, and young voters. I'm not talking a couple of percentage points. I'm talking in some cases doubling 2020 numbers in the same demographics. And enthusiasm polls among Democrats are at levels not seen since 2008.

Is that true? If so, then some of your optimism may not be just pleasant but infectious. Where do you see that? Youth vote turnout has been crazy meaningful in recent history since the RvW coup.

Here's where I was getting that from - source is CBSNews. Fair warning - it is coming from one single data firm, but they're one of the only ones I've seen aggregating state data nationwide.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 8:21 am Here's where I was getting that from - source is CBSNews. Fair warning - it is coming from one single data firm, but they're one of the only ones I've seen aggregating state data nationwide.

Those are the exact demographics that the "election integrity" voter suppression efforts are aimed at. I expect it to get increasingly nasty as we move towards November.

Things like this:

Voting rights groups in Texas are warning of an impending showdown as Republicans in the state purge voters from rolls and execute search warrants upon voting rights groups in the name of election integrity.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-ne ... -hits-home

TY for the link. My googlefu was weak on such things. I did see the young black women part on NJ dot com or maybe newjersey dot com.

There was a particularly nasty one in Alabama recently where they sent out a shit ton of notices to people telling them they were ineligible to vote due to immigration status, and apparently it was sent to a lot of native born, very legal to vote people as well. At the bottom of the letter it said something like "if you think this is incorrect, do this and this and this in order to be able to vote".

That's really all it takes, because even though they now admit that they sent the notice to a lot of people who were indeed eligible to vote, someone on the line about voting in the first place is just going to say screw that and not vote. Mission accomplished, and the perps can just say "we made a mistake!"

I'll post the link to the story if I can, it was on NPR radio.

I really think our elections should not be a state level thing, because of this very bullshit. Just the consistency alone in terms of the laws would be so much better than what we currently do.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 6:55 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 6:39 pm I think one thing that supports my optimism is voter registration numbers. Big surges among women, minorities, and young voters. I'm not talking a couple of percentage points. I'm talking in some cases doubling 2020 numbers in the same demographics. And enthusiasm polls among Democrats are at levels not seen since 2008.

Is that true? If so, then some of your optimism may not be just pleasant but infectious. Where do you see that? Youth vote turnout has been crazy meaningful in recent history since the RvW coup.

Another data point to support.



I’m sure some of that will be offset by the ratfuckery of voter purges, but am hopeful this new enthusiasm translates to the ballot box.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 9:31 am
I really think our elections should not be a state level thing, because of this very bullshit. Just the consistency alone in terms of the laws would be so much better than what we currently do.

We used to have a Voting Rights Act to prevent the historically naughty states from pulling shenanigans like this, but SCOTUS axed it.

The surge in voter registrations is only good news if the new voters can actually vote.

Kraken wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 10:58 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 9:31 am
I really think our elections should not be a state level thing, because of this very bullshit. Just the consistency alone in terms of the laws would be so much better than what we currently do.

We used to have a Voting Rights Act to prevent the historically naughty states from pulling shenanigans like this, but SCOTUS axed it.

The surge in voter registrations is only good news if the new voters can actually vote.

Yeah, I worded my comment poorly. I know that we have federal election laws, but I think given our issues, we should have the FEC actually conduct the elections from start to finish in each state, or at LEAST have ONE set of laws governing (national) elections, as opposed to federal and state.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 10:02 am

LordMortis wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 6:55 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 6:39 pm I think one thing that supports my optimism is voter registration numbers. Big surges among women, minorities, and young voters. I'm not talking a couple of percentage points. I'm talking in some cases doubling 2020 numbers in the same demographics. And enthusiasm polls among Democrats are at levels not seen since 2008.

Is that true? If so, then some of your optimism may not be just pleasant but infectious. Where do you see that? Youth vote turnout has been crazy meaningful in recent history since the RvW coup.

Another data point to support.



I’m sure some of that will be offset by the ratfuckery of voter purges, but am hopeful this new enthusiasm translates to the ballot box.

I didn't click through to the link because it's X, but percentages can be tricky. Like if on the days that it was 45% women they registered 5000 people overall, but the days it was 55% women they only registered 100, the overall numbers would still favor men.

Watching college football today and there have been several ads from both candidates.

Harris: “Here’s what I’m going to do to help Americans”

Trump: “BROWN PEOPLE ARE COMING TO KILL YOU AND ONLY I CAN STOP THEM”

The difference is stark.

I'm fast forwarding through all of them.

But even the flashes I see are annoying.

I've been cursed. I saw no such ads and then I got blind sided by brown people are here illegally, stealing your social security and it's all because Harris is a failure.

Citizens are running a scam on illegal immigrants. The illegals do the back breaking jobs, pay into Social Security, but cannot collect the benefits. And the deplorables want to deport them all? Does not sound like a winning proposition.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 3:13 pm Trump: “BROWN PEOPLE ARE COMING TO KILL YOU AND ONLY I CAN STOP THEM”

How'd that work out for Saruman?

Jaymann wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 7:19 pm Citizens are running a scam on illegal immigrants. The illegals do the back breaking jobs, pay into Social Security, but cannot collect the benefits. And the deplorables want to deport them all? Does not sound like a winning proposition.

From crop fields to slaughterhouses, the US domestic food supply depends hugely on undocumented immigrants. Trump's "illegals" are literally the people who keep us alive, and for the most part citizens are *not* willing to do these jobs.

Somehow no one ever mentions this.

According to Trump, those are “Black jobs.”

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 8:40 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 7:19 pm Citizens are running a scam on illegal immigrants. The illegals do the back breaking jobs, pay into Social Security, but cannot collect the benefits. And the deplorables want to deport them all? Does not sound like a winning proposition.

From crop fields to slaughterhouses, the US domestic food supply depends hugely on undocumented immigrants. Trump's "illegals" are literally the people who keep us alive, and for the most part citizens are *not* willing to do these jobs.

Somehow no one ever mentions this.

Then why not make them legal? Why US's food supply has to depend on breaking the law?

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 11:22 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 8:40 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 7:19 pm Citizens are running a scam on illegal immigrants. The illegals do the back breaking jobs, pay into Social Security, but cannot collect the benefits. And the deplorables want to deport them all? Does not sound like a winning proposition.

From crop fields to slaughterhouses, the US domestic food supply depends hugely on undocumented immigrants. Trump's "illegals" are literally the people who keep us alive, and for the most part citizens are *not* willing to do these jobs.

Somehow no one ever mentions this.

Then why not make them legal? Why US's food supply has to depend on breaking the law?

It's known as the nudge, nudge, wink, wink economy.

Tim Walz’s brother hates him and loves Maga and Trunp!!!

https://www.newsweek.com/jeff-walz-prai ... lz-1947203

Maga going bonkers pushing him to formally endorse Trump and campaign with him …

Remember when Prince Harry betrays his brother it’s wokeism - when someone betrays their brother for Maga it’s because that brother deserved it.

How does this help TFG or more importantly how does it hurt Harris? All I see is the suggestion that MAGA's respect for the privacy and primacy of family is about what everyone knows it is. The same hypocrisy and lip service as everything else.

If anything, this makes him even more relatable since we all have that one (or more) MAGA family member that we don’t interact with anymore.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 10:04 am If anything, this makes him even more relatable since we all have that one (or more) MAGA family member that we don’t interact with anymore.

That was my other thought but that is divisive which Harris/Walz and hopefully we all hope to move away from, quite frankly, by getting people out of MAGA mode and back in toward "we disagree mode", even as I personally believe that will take an implosion of a GOP so riddled with cancerous MAGA as well as the McConnell approach to governing at this point.